Salary Cap: Which Wheeler contract would you prefer?

[surixon]

Yes. Look at what 38 yo players make. Last summer Joe Thornton signed a 8M 1 year deal . Marleau signed a 3 year 19M deal with the Maple Leafs and makes 8.5M this year. Thornton had a 50 point season and Marleau 46 points before they signed those contracts and Marleau's wife claimed other teams offered more money. Wheeler is a whole lot younger and better than either of those guys.

If Blake Wheeler goes to free agency he's going to be 32 when he signs his next contract. David Backes was 32 when he signed his 5 year 30M UFA deal with Boston. The cap will go up and he's not even half the player Wheeler is. 35M is less than Clarkson got and it's way below his market value. That's why I think it would be a disrespectful offer for a classy guy who happens to be the captain and best player on the team and a top10 winger in the league.

Then let some other team handcuff themselves. I am not interested paying top dollars for declining assets. He doesn't want to take a big dollar short term deal, fine its a business and he is free to chase the dollars if he sees fit.

Edit: you bring up Thornton and Marleau well Thornton prior to his one year deal had a couple of 3 year good.dollar deals through most of his 30's. Marleu prior to the leaf deal is coming off a 3 year deal signed at age 34.

I like the way the Sharks handled their aging stars. They kept the term low to maintain flexibility. That is how I'd like to proceed with Wheeler. If he's still good at 36 extend him for another couple of seasons.

 

[paragon]

Edit: you bring up Thornton and Marleau well Thornton prior to his one year deal had a couple of 3 year good.dollar deals through most of his 30's. Marleu prior to the leaf deal is coming off a 3 year deal signed at age 34.

I like the way the Sharks handled their aging stars. They kept the term low to maintain flexibility. That is how I'd like to proceed with Wheeler. If he's still good at 36 extend him for another couple of seasons.

That 3 year deal thing is not something Doug Wilson came up with. Thornton already begun that practice while in Boston. Keeping the contracts short also meant he had high cap hits. At one point his cap hit was 17% of the cap, which would be 12.5M today. If Wheeler followed the same formula and signed 3 year deals his cap hit would be 9M even with a moderate 12% cap hit.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Then let some other team handcuff themselves. I am not interested paying top dollars for declining assets. He doesn't want to take a big dollar short term deal, fine its a business and he is free to chase the dollars if he sees fit.

Edit: you bring up Thornton and Marleau well Thornton prior to his one year deal had a couple of 3 year good.dollar deals through most of his 30's. Marleu prior to the leaf deal is coming off a 3 year deal signed at age 34.

I like the way the Sharks handled their aging stars. They kept the term low to maintain flexibility. That is how I'd like to proceed with Wheeler. If he's still good at 36 extend him for another couple of seasons.

One reason that happened was because both players really wanted to stay with the Sharks. Wheeler might actually have exactly the same feeling about the Jets so something similar is a real possibility

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't believe in stats. Believe your eyes. If he is a top winger then pay him like a top winger.

By my eye test he's not quite the same this year - he's not blowing past defenders and driving to the net as much (he used to do it pretty regularly, now it's a rare event). Maybe it's a blip and his boxscores are certainly great (oops...stats!). I just don't think the Wheeler of the next 5 years is going to be too close to the Wheeler of the last 5. And the league seems to be figuring out that you can ill afford to pay players based on past performance.

Here's probably the least discouraging Wheeler chart - Career 5v5 p/60:

If he settles into the 1.80-ish range for the next 5 years, then that puts him as a low-end 1st liner, high-end 2nd liner in terms of production. If he sinks below that and the Jets are paying him like Prime Wheeler, I dunno...