He started out hot, then his production fell off a cliff despite given lots of starts in the Offensive sone against weak opposition. Potential wise, the three centers of this year simply have more talent.
I think we reach the same conclusion on draft position (right after the three centres in the 2-4 position) but for vastly different reasons.
Of course most of these top tier players have a higher potential: Monahan was a safe pick and was considered one going in. He's a player who would end on your roster in some capacity...not the star likely, but he'll be there and will contribute. He had all the qualities you wanted on draft day: poised, 200 foot player, and just seems to know where to be. That being said he's also not the most talented player in the draft nor does he have the best acceleration. So saying that Bennett, Reinhart, and Draisaitl have higher ceilings is not a huge shock. But to say they're better because of this talent alone is a bit of a mistake since draft position is influenced not purely determined by talent.
Some people knock selections like this but I think it's key to remember that drafting isn't is about getting the highest potential player but to pick one who has the potential/probability combination with a skill set you need. Monahan, while likely not the most talented player left at that point, would fit pretty much any centre slot in the top 9 an be worthwhile selection. Being a long-time first line player would be icing. For this reason (and this is the wrong place it put it, but let me go on a tangent), I won't be surprised if Eric Cornel sneaks into the mid-bottom 1st round this year: he's another safe pick. No great ceiling probably 3rd line centre at best, but he's got a good chance of making it.
As per his production, the question should also become: what did we expect of him? Personally, I was going in expecting a 30 point season from grinding and rebound situations, 3rd line play, and some learning in the NHL about how to be an NHLer in his first outing. So he's exceeded what I wanted from him. Could he have gotten more points? Yeah, but that shot % value was suggesting than he was running a little hot for points early and that his slump later was more of a correction and nagging impact of that injury (he had a slump where he was much less noticeable around Christmas). Could he be a career 15% shooter? Maybe. Alex Tanguay runs 18% since he doesn't choose to shoot much. I think Monahan will around 9-11% typically found in forwards. And if we correct for that, then I think he had a season that I pretty much expected him to have, give or take a little more time on ice by Hartley.
Personally, I don't see much reason to change the opinion of Monahan yet as a safe, stable pick with first line potential but likely will be a 1A player for most of his career. The stability and likely chance that you'll get a player of this variety is reminiscent of Reinhart in this draft (whom I have similar expectations for next season, should he make the jump to the NHL) and I'd put him just a hair lower than Reinhart/Bennett/Draisaitl.
As a Flames fan, Reinhart/Monahan as 1/2 centre would be hilarious and awesome (though I'm still hoping for Bennett). So much poise and calm going down the middle
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Also, Flames fans, are you still happy with Poirier over Shinkaruk?
I have no opinion yet. Activity and capability in CHL play doesn't influence my opinion much. When they translate to an NHL game, I give them a few years and see how they adjust. Some adjust great and some struggle. What it comes to me is that prospects aren't a short-term game and should be read over many years. In much the same way, I don't buy much into the Gaudreau hype yet since he's a forward who has to prove that he play against bigger, faster, meaner players each and every level he moves into...that is to say, if he's out-muscled and unable to find free space offensively he won't stand out as an NHLer.
I'll make my decisions about these players as they progress through their careers. They would both be worth an ELC in my viewings, but where they go from there is anybody's guess.