Where will Leon Draisaitl rank all-time by the end of his career?

[Sidney the Kidney]

148 people (as of this posting) think he'll end up top 25 or better? That's ... interesting.

 

[I am not exposed]

I voted top 50

 

[Video Nasty]

148 people (as of this posting) think he'll end up top 25 or better? That's ... interesting.

67.4% don't (as of this posting). What's the problem?

 

[daver]

Given the wide spectrum that players from other eras get voted on, a better question is where will he rank in relation to players in the last 30 years- the post Mario/Wayne era.

Among forwards, I would place him below Crosby, Jagr, and McDavid but a good argument for #4 can be made. Lindros, Forsberg and Malkin are the better players but obviously lack the raw numbers and scoring finishes.

 

[wetcoast]

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Over a six game sample, Draisaitl was at a 2.00 PPG. That puts him on Wayne/Mario level. Are you saying that if you put Draisaitl on another team without McDavid he is even better than McDavid?

And what are you trying to say about 16/17? That a 20 year old McDavid was at his best and Draisaitl was better?

The problem here is that you suggested this,

One of them must be not able to carry a line on their own.

I just showed that Draisaital could and did as for the playoffs Leon wasn't exactly in his prime he was one year older at 21 that playoffs and was clearly the btter player that post season, especially againt the Ducks in round 2 where he had 13 points in 7 games to McDavid's 5.

Yes Connor was only 20 so that perfomance isn't going to hurt his all time ranking but give Leon his due here.

What most people want to see is how Draisaitl would do on a team that isn't focused on run and gun with one of the best players in NHL history to lead that type of offense on his line for the majority of the time.

Fair enough but people need to do this for many other players on dynasties as well right, why is Leon so hard to evaluate?

IMO, he is rated as being in the group for 2nd best player in the world with Kucherov, Mac and Matthews, and fuller seasons and great playoff production put him arguably at the top of that group. In a historical sense, he is outside the Top 50/3rd tier level (Sakic, Trottier, Yzerman). He may get there with raw production, or at least ahead of Malkin/Forsberg, but this doesn't mean he was the better player as his raw numbers would suggest.

Sure McDavid is a clear #1 right now and has been for a while but Leon has a clear argument for #2 among the players you have listed here currently and among all time greats (Sakic, Yzerman and Trottier) they are all within reach one would think.

Ironically all 3 of those players also have more top end talent, ie HHOFers in their prime than Leon does.

 

[wetcoast]

Given the wide spectrum that players from other eras get voted on, a better question is where will he rank in relation to players in the last 30 years- the post Mario/Wayne era.

Among forwards, I would place him below Crosby, Jagr, and McDavid but a good argument for #4 can be made. Lindros, Forsberg and Malkin are the better players but obviously lack the raw numbers and scoring finishes.

Man MJ is going to be all over this one.

 

[McVespa99]

Where do you rank Ron Francis? I think that's the best comparison.

Francis' numbers absolutely jump off the page as Draisaitl's are likely to as well by the time he's done. Despite that, because of who he played with, the era he played in, and the lack of individual hardware (Darisaitl has a Hart, but let's be honest, one Hart doesn't move the needle that much in a top 100 discussion), his all-time ranking doesn't track with his statistics.

That's the feeling I get with Draisaitl.

You conveniently forgot the Ross and Lindsay. 3 x 50 goal seasons. 4 x 100 point seasons.
Your feelings dont matter

 

[wetcoast]

You conveniently forgot the Ross and Lindsay. 3 x 50 goal seasons. 4 x 100 point seasons.
Your feelings dont matter

I like Ron Francis a lot but Leon is just better in my book.

 

[McVespa99]

I like Ron Francis a lot but Leon is just better in my book.

Francis was great. Drai is greater. His legacy will mostly come down to how long he can maintain this elite level

 

[wetcoast]

Francis was great. Drai is greater.

I agree here.

His legacy will mostly come down to how long he can maintain this elite level

For me I also agree here but for many it's that SC thing.....but it really shouldn't be.

 

[daver]

The problem here is that you suggested this,


I just showed that Draisaital could and did as for the playoffs Leon wasn't exactly in his prime he was one year older at 21 that playoffs and was clearly the btter player that post season, especially againt the Ducks in round 2 where he had 13 points in 7 games to McDavid's 5.

We are discussing whether Draisaitl is the clear #2 in the league or arguably the #2 in the league; if he could be in the Trottier, Yzerman, Sakic level of Centres all-time or on a tier below which puts him in the Top 50-80 range.

A player of that caliber is going to have great playoff runs regardless if there is a young GOAT on their team.

At the very least, his significant point shares with McDavid (possibly the most all-time when it is all said and done) should be considered in comparison with players who have similar offensive resumes. He also should be viewed, like McDavid, as a C/W hybrid who is deployed almost exclusively in an offensive role. IMO, this puts Mack and Kucherov on his level as a player.

Malkin is a great comparable given he also had a #5 player all-time candidate on his team. Putting Malkin's lack of full seasons aside, Malkin is much more proven to be as his numbers would indicate given he and Crosby were separated at ES throughout their careers and Malkin's best season happened when Crosby played only 22 games.

I think Malkin and Forsberg are in the Trottier, Yzerman, Sakic level of Centres, Draisaitl doesn't make that cut.

 

[daver]

Man MJ is going to be all over this one.

Sorry, missed OV, change that to #5. You can say that there is a Big 4 of forwards in the 21st century and then a group of #5 candidates.

If we throw Forsberg into the mix (including his pre-2000s career), then we have an interesting mix of Big 4 talents who missed too much time due to injuries (Malkin, Forsberg), players with great playoff legacies and significant regular season resumes (Kane, Kucherov), and Draisaitl who is pacing for the best regular season resume with elite playoff production.

 

[daver]

Sure McDavid is a clear #1 right now and has been for a while but Leon has a clear argument for #2 among the players you have listed here currently and among all time greats (Sakic, Yzerman and Trottier) they are all within reach one would think.

Ironically all 3 of those players also have more top end talent, ie HHOFers in their prime than Leon does.

Talent is more spread out in the current but Sakic and Yzerman were consistent offensive performers who produced without having a HHOFer on their line most of the time.

 

[Machinehead]

You conveniently forgot the Ross and Lindsay. 3 x 50 goal seasons. 4 x 100 point seasons.
Your feelings dont matter

The Rangers remind me every day that my feelings don't matter, but thanks for your insight anyhow.

Let me put it another way: if Draisaitl ends up being a top 50 player of all-time is that like, an insult? There's been a lot of great players.

You compare a guy to Ron Francis and people get upset. 99.9% of players who had a career in the NHL aren't Ron Francis.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

67.4% don't (as of this posting). What's the problem?

There's no "problem". I just find it funny that ~33% of people voting have no idea about the history of hockey beyond what happened since 2000.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

There's no "problem". I just find it funny that ~33% of people voting have no idea about the history of hockey beyond what happened since 2000.

That was around the time I got my cybernetic implant, which allowed me to evolve a couple of centuries ahead (far beyond the Neanderthals of the 20th century). Isn't that around the time you got yours?

 

[Despote]

There's no "problem". I just find it funny that ~33% of people voting have no idea about the history of hockey beyond what happened since 2000.

If one believes that Draisaitl is the 2nd best player of this era it would seem to make sense to think that he's going to be a ~top 25 player of all time. Unless we just think this era sucks.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

That was around the time I got my cybernetic implant, which allowed me to evolve a couple of centuries ahead (far beyond the Neanderthals of the 20th century). Isn't that around the time you got yours?

I'm still watching games on my black and white tv that I have to get up to change the channel for.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If one believes that Draisaitl is the 2nd best player of this era it would seem to make sense to think that he's going to be a ~top 25 player of all time. Unless we just think this era sucks.

And what is "this era"? What timeframe are we talking about? Because there's overlap. Are Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin's dominance in the early 2010's part of this era? Is it only since 2015, in which guys like Matthews and Kucherov have just as much hardware as Draisaitl? And are we ignoring other positions like defense where I think Makar is "better" than Draisaitl for this era?

And that's not even touching on the "McDavid effect". No, let me be clear that I don't think Draisailt's a slug without McDavid. But does he achieve these accolades like 3 50+ goal seasons if he played on a team without McDavid? Is he a perennial 110+ point player without McDavid or is he merely in the 90-100 point range? How much of Draisaitl's statistical success has been boosted by McDavid?

 

[Despote]

And what is "this era"? What timeframe are we talking about? Because there's overlap. Are Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin's dominance in the early 2010's part of this era? Is it only since 2015, in which guys like Matthews and Kucherov have just as much hardware as Draisaitl? And are we ignoring other positions like defense where I think Makar is "better" than Draisaitl for this era?

And that's not even touching on the "McDavid effect". No, let me be clear that I don't think Draisailt's a slug without McDavid. But does he achieve these accolades like 3 50+ goal seasons if he played on a team without McDavid? Is he a perennial 110+ point player without McDavid or is he merely in the 90-100 point range? How much of Draisaitl's statistical success has been boosted by McDavid?

I didn't say that Draisaitl is the 2nd best of this era, I just said that if you believe so it's reasonable to think that he'll end up in that range.

Let's say this era is players drafter from 2012 to 2022. 2nd best player from a ten-year-period during a time with more international competition than ever before should definitely be very high in any all-time list. Again, not saying Draisaitl is the answer here.

 

[MapleLeafs94]

He's tracking to break into the top 50 and possibly even top 25.

Longevity matters though, and I mean no disrespect to Draisaitl but I personally picture him being around the same level as Tavares now at the same age. Yes, I'm aware Draisaitl has had a couple seasons better than anything Tavares has had. But I think that's how he'll age imo. Still a useful player obviously and just being that good in his 30s to say 36 would probably land him top 50. A lot depends on line mates, injuries and many factors however. Say he chases money after his current contract and lands on a bad team, and the aforementioned Tavares comparison happens, it would not look good (Tavares without elite wingers in Nylander and Marner would probably be a 60 point player at this point).

Before Oil fans go for my jugular I get the same vibes with Matthews regarding how his late career will go so relax.

 

[Video Nasty]

There's no "problem". I just find it funny that ~33% of people voting have no idea about the history of hockey beyond what happened since 2000.

I don’t see the correlation. Kind of sick of the smug cheap shots some make around here if they disagree with others opinions, e.g. one must be ignorant of the past if they value anything in the present day.

The fact is, people who cling to only the past are far more ignorant than those they claim superiority over. It’s just another example of “oh music sucks today, it was only good when I was a relevant person.”

The reality is that if he puts up another half decade of similar play as his last 5 seasons, he’ll have a reasonable case, particularly when just looking at forwards.

 

[Machinehead]

There's no "problem". I just find it funny that ~33% of people voting have no idea about the history of hockey beyond what happened since 2000.

Right, this is where I'm at.

In terms of career resume, I doubt he passes any of Jean Beliveau, Howie Morenz, Phil Esposito, Stan Mikita, or Bobby Clarke.

That's just centers and only guys wrapped up before 2000.

I could name ten at every position (C, W, D, G) without blinking and that's 40 right there.

I don't know what people expect here. This seems like a silly question set up to get current Oilers fans to take cold takes personally.

 

[Machinehead]

C

Gretzky
Crosby
Lemieux
Morenz
Yzerman
Sakic
Esposito
McDavid
Beliveau
Messier
Mikita

W

Howe
Ovechkin
M. Richard
Jagr
Lafleur
Bobby Hull

D

Orr
Bourque
Lidstrom
Harvey
Shore
Potvin
Coffey

G

Broduer
Roy
Hasek
Plante
Sawchuk

I don't feel like arguing over every last guy so I'm just including the no-doubters. That's 29.

There are many others to be argued, and we didn't even get into the Soviet players. Plus, I'm just scratching the surface on the really old players.

He's gonna be outside the top 25 and I can't believe that even needs to be said, let alone people taking offense to it.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don’t see the correlation. Kind of sick of the smug cheap shots some make around here if they disagree with others opinions, e.g. one must be ignorant of the past if they value anything in the present day.

The fact is, people who cling to only the past are far more ignorant than those they claim superiority over. It’s just another example of “oh music sucks today, it was only good when I was a relevant person.”

I mean, if someone thinks Draisaitl's on track to finish top 25 (some even have him top 10), then it does make me question how much they know about the history of the league.

It's not smug, it's pointing out that people seem to be placing way too much emphasis on what the most recent 20-30 years worth of players did because Draisaitl hasn't separated himself from his peers like MacKinnon, Matthews, Kucherov, etc. enough to lay claim to being so far ahead of the rest of the pack to say he's tracking for top 25. And even *if* one believes he's established himself above those names, it's not so clear cut that if he's top 25 all-time, does that make MacKinnon tracking for top 50 all-time? Is Kucherov top 40 all-time?

That's my issue. It's ignoring all the greats in the past because of recency bias.

Edit: Just look at @Machinehead list above. Draisaitl has no argument to finish ahead of just those names alone. So if someone were to argue he's ahead of a number of those guys, that *does* make one question if the person is only looking at the last 20-ish years of hockey to compare Draisaitl's career to.

The reality is that if he puts up another half decade of similar play as his last 5 seasons, he’ll have a reasonable case, particularly when just looking at forwards.

Why are we looking at just forwards? The OP seems to be asking overall player based on the thread title and the poll options.

And that's further the issue. Even if Draisaitl *is* tracking to be a top 25 forward of all time, he's still not a top 25 PLAYER of all time because there are still superstar defensemen and goalies who are better than him, relative to their positions.