Where will Leon Draisaitl rank all-time by the end of his career?

[Despote]

I mean, if someone thinks Draisaitl's on track to finish top 25 (some even have him top 10), then it does make me question how much they know about the history of the league.

It's not smug, it's pointing out that people seem to be placing way too much emphasis on what the most recent 20-30 years worth of players did because Draisaitl hasn't separated himself from his peers like MacKinnon, Matthews, Kucherov, etc. enough to lay claim to being so far ahead of the rest of the pack to say he's tracking for top 25. And even *if* one believes he's established himself above those names, it's not so clear cut that if he's top 25 all-time, does that make MacKinnon tracking for top 50 all-time? Is Kucherov top 40 all-time?

That's my issue. It's ignoring all the greats in the past because of recency bias.

Edit: Just look at @Machinehead list above. Draisaitl has no argument to finish ahead of just those names alone. So if someone were to argue he's ahead of a number of those guys, that *does* make one question if the person is only looking at the last 20-ish years of hockey to compare Draisaitl's career to.


Why are we looking at just forwards? The OP seems to be asking overall player based on the thread title and the poll options.

And that's further the issue. Even if Draisaitl *is* tracking to be a top 25 forward of all time, he's still not a top 25 PLAYER of all time because there are still superstar defensemen and goalies who are better than him, relative to their positions.

Do you think there's like one top 50 player that has entered the league in the last decade?

 

[jigglysquishy]

Do you think there's like one top 50 player that has entered the league in the last decade?

McDavid is absolutely a top 50 player and will almost certainly retire at the 5 spot.

Last decade is hard. Players are aged 18 to 28. They're all in the first half of their careers.

Kucherov isn't far off. I have him in top 25 wingers right now and he's still in his prime. He's probably around 70 overall right now and is adding every year.

Makar has only had 4 seasons but is absolutely on a top 50 trajectory.

Sure, McDavid is the only one there right now. But the other potential candidates are all very young.

I would suspect two of Draisaitl, Makar, Fox, Matthews, Mackinnon make it top 50. But they're not they're yet. You could even get a dark horse like Shesterkin.

The Stanley Cup is 130 years old. It's a lot of history.

 

[Video Nasty]

I mean, if someone thinks Draisaitl's on track to finish top 25 (some even have him top 10), then it does make me question how much they know about the history of the league.

It's not smug, it's pointing out that people seem to be placing way too much emphasis on what the most recent 20-30 years worth of players did because Draisaitl hasn't separated himself from his peers like MacKinnon, Matthews, Kucherov, etc. enough to lay claim to being so far ahead of the rest of the pack to say he's tracking for top 25. And even *if* one believes he's established himself above those names, it's not so clear cut that if he's top 25 all-time, does that make MacKinnon tracking for top 50 all-time? Is Kucherov top 40 all-time?

That's my issue. It's ignoring all the greats in the past because of recency bias.

Edit: Just look at @Machinehead list above. Draisaitl has no argument to finish ahead of just those names alone. So if someone were to argue he's ahead of a number of those guys, that *does* make one question if the person is only looking at the last 20-ish years of hockey to compare Draisaitl's career to.


Why are we looking at just forwards? The OP seems to be asking overall player based on the thread title and the poll options.

And that's further the issue. Even if Draisaitl *is* tracking to be a top 25 forward of all time, he's still not a top 25 PLAYER of all time because there are still superstar defensemen and goalies who are better than him, relative to their positions.

On a fundamental level, recency bias exists in equal doses as clinging to nostalgia or being unwilling to acknowledge that a player could, in what it is a hypothetical, rank higher than a legend who has usually had their tale grow larger with each retelling for 50-75 years, often by people parroting what others have said about something they’ve never given much thought to themselves.

When some point out how someone current day can’t be among the best to ever do it, whether it’s athletes, musicians, actors, filmmakers, and so on, it’s as not a fair shake being given as the person claiming that everything prior to their birth is irrelevant to them.

I’m not saying to turn a blind eye to the history of anything. I love the history of every subject I care deeply about. What I am saying is to be wary of getting stuck in the rut of where nothing modern can possibly take its place with or above a long standing belief.

As for why I’m just looking at forwards? I simply chose to interpret it that way. I’ve never seen much sense in comparing defensemen and particularly goaltenders with forwards.

 

[wetcoast]

Talent is more spread out in the current but Sakic and Yzerman were consistent offensive performers who produced without having a HHOFer on their line most of the time.

I agree somewhat but the other part of me thinks this is more a trivial pursuit type of answer.

 

[wetcoast]

C

Gretzky
Crosby
Lemieux
Morenz
Yzerman
Sakic
Esposito
McDavid
Beliveau
Messier
Mikita

W

Howe
Ovechkin
M. Richard
Jagr
Lafleur
Bobby Hull

D

Orr
Bourque
Lidstrom
Harvey
Shore
Potvin
Coffey

G

Broduer
Roy
Hasek
Plante
Sawchuk

I don't feel like arguing over every last guy so I'm just including the no-doubters. That's 29.

There are many others to be argued, and we didn't even get into the Soviet players. Plus, I'm just scratching the surface on the really old players.

He's gonna be outside the top 25 and I can't believe that even needs to be said, let alone people taking offense to it.

Honestly a couple of those guys are reachable potentially but that's why I voted top 50, probably closer to 25 than 50, but top 25 is extremely hard to crack.

For example only 2 players to start their NHL careers this century have cracked the top 25 so far and no others except than McDavid of course and possibly Leon are tracking that way.

 

[Madap]

Top 100 for sure, maybe top 50. Unfortunately he’s always going to be shadowed by mcdavid which will prevent him from going higher. Great offensive player but that’s easier to do when McDavid has the tough matchups. And he’s horrible defensively. Even his Hart season, he was negative player which is a little weak. He’ll just never be seen as one of the all time greats.

 

[daver]

I agree somewhat but the other part of me thinks this is more a trivial pursuit type of answer.

Wouldn't the amount of HHOFers on their respective teams also be a trivia answer. And of course they both started their careers on teams with a notable lack of HHOFers which didn't seem to affect their production generally speaking (you could argue it inflated Sakic's numbers but deflated Yzerman's if you wanted to dig into it).

McDrai seem to be the exception of splitting up the #1Cs on separate lines to create depth. So are they #1Cs or C/W hybrids? Does Drai put up the same numbers if the Oilers don't go full out run and gun to win games?

 

[daver]

Honestly a couple of those guys are reachable potentially but that's why I voted top 50, probably closer to 25 than 50, but top 25 is extremely hard to crack.

For example only 2 players to start their NHL careers this century have cracked the top 25 so far and no others except than McDavid of course and possibly Leon are tracking that way.

All those forwards were challenging for league's best player (or #2/3 behind Howe/Mario/Wayne). Draisaitl is challenging for #2 in the league against 4th tier competition (Top 50-100). I do like his playoff resume better than his regular season resume. An impressive Smythe would be huge for him; something that could place him among the 3rd tier guys (Top 25 to 50).

 

[centipede2233]

19 people voted top 10…wtf. In order for drasaitl to be top 10, he’s gonna need Jagr longevity, Ovechkin durability, sakic’s elite from start to finish, add in a couple of cups with a conn smythe and another hart or Lindsay.
that seems really unlikely. Possible, yes. Winning the lottery is possible, but unlikely to happen to any specific person.