Where does Crosby rank as a goalscorer?

[WarriorofTime]

This is the kind of "mythologizing" I can do without.

? How is acknowledging that Forsberg played in a lower scoring league “mythologizing”?

 

[daver]

? How is acknowledging that Forsberg played in a lower scoring league “mythologizing”?

It was a backwards comment at using league GPG to "adjust" stats.

BTW, I noticed you didn't give similar acknowledgement to Crosby's career assist per game stats in the discussion of his playmaking ranking.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It was a backwards comment at using league GPG to "adjust" stats.

BTW, I noticed you didn't give similar acknowledgement to Crosby's career assist per game stats in the discussion of his playmaking ranking.

I’ve never been against era adjusting Crosby stats..

 

[Hockey Stathead]

Somewhat related...

Crosby has 18 seasons with more assists than goals and 0 seasons with more goals than assists. However, in 2023-2024 he has 6 more goals than assists with 31 games to play.

Will he fall off this list of *forwards* who have at least 18 seasons with more assists than goals and 0 seasons with more goals than assists?

 

[Staniowski]

Crosby is a great goal-scorer, I actually like his goal-scoring a lot. He's such a great player with varied talents, and he can adjust and continuously improve his game.

I compare his goal-scoring to Howe, Gretzky, and McDavid. Four of the best hockey players ever, and they were all capable of leading the League in goal-scoring, and all created opportunities to score because of their all-around greatness.

But, were any of them ever the best goal-scorer in hockey? Probably not.

Watching McDavid now....he's good enough to lead the NHL in goals, but he's just not as good as guys like Matthews and Pastrnak. When McDavid is in the high slot, he just doesn't look very dangerous, with respect to shooting the puck. But he is certainly dangerous with his speed.

Howe was pretty nifty around the net, and he was very strong and could shoot from a distance. But he didn't quite have the goal-scoring instincts of Richard or Hull.

Gretzky's goal-scoring was too era-dependent; he didn't have the physical strength to score from a distance, and struggled to score when the League improved.

Crosby's a good goal-scorer, but he's not Ovechkin, Stamkos, Pastrnak, or Matthews.

 

[wetcoast]

I find Sakic and Crosby are roughly comparable as goal-scorers.

Sakic is a bit ahead in terms of career numbers (625-580), but he's played around 140 extra games. Crosby is slightly ahead per game (0.47 vs 0.45 - and he did it in an era that was, on balance, a bit lower scoring).

Both were in the top ten in goals five times. Crosby has two goal-scoring titles, which is impressive. But in both cases, the best goal scorer of this generation either missed time (2010) or had an off year (2017). Sakic was runner up once (2001). Two RR trophies is impressive, but Sakic has all four of the next best scoring finishes (2nd, 5th, 6th and 6th).

Crosby was on pace for around 60 goals in 2011, which easily would have given him the Rocket Richard trophy. (But it hurts that he only scored 35 goals over his next 82 games after 2011 - was that 60 goal pace sustainable)? Three RR trophies would tie him with Bure, Selanne and even Hull. (On the other hand, Sakic was affected by injuries too - had he not missed nine games in 1999, he was on pace for another 2nd place finish. And obviously Crosby potentially scoring 60 goals in 2011 is more impressive than Sakic finishing runner-up in 1999 - but we're also talking about a 41 game sample vs 73).

Thinking about the "artistry" of it - Sakic has one of the best wrist shots in NHL history. Crosby doesn't have a singular defining skill that we associate with goal-scorers. (If we're strictly talking about output, then this is irrelevant).

Crosby seems to be the better goal-scorer at ES, and Sakic is better with the man advantage. (That's not an argument for or against either player; just a factual description).

Sakic is pretty clearly the better goal-scorer in the playoffs. Through their first 172 PO games (the length of Sakic's career), Sakic is ahead 84-69. (Crosby only scored 2 goals in the 8 extra games, so that doesn't do much for him). Despite making fewer trips to the Stanley Cup finals, Sakic led the playoffs in goals more often, and had that historic goal-scoring run in 1996. Sakic scored as many goals in the 2001 Stanley Cup finals (7 games against the New Jersey Devils at the peak of the Dead Puck Era) as Crosby did in his entire career (25 games). Plus Sakic has the all-time record for most playoff overtime goals.

On balance, Crosby is probably a bit ahead in the regular season, and Sakic is ahead in the playoffs. Overall they're probably roughly equal all-time. Sakic is maybe a top 20 goal-scorer in NHL history. (I've never heard anyone credible rank him in the top ten). I'm not going to put together a full list, but arguing by analogy, Crosby is probably also around 20th all-time.

Great post and analysis as per usual but I wonder how many other people had the same thought in the first sentence that I did?

My gut reaction was that of course Sakic was the better goal scorer but yet there it is.

 

[daver]

Assist leaders since Crosby came into League

2005-06: Thornton
2006-07: Thornton
2007-08: Thornton
2008-09: Malkin
2009-10: H. Sedin
2010-11: H. Sedin
2011-12: H. Sedin
2012-13: St. Louis
2013-14: Crosby
2014-15: Backstrom
2015-16: Karlsson
2016-17: McDavid
2017-18: Wheeler/Giroux (tie)
2018-19: Kucherov
2019-20: Draisaitl
2020-21: McDavid
2021-22: Huberdeau
2022-23: McDavid

Cumulative:
Thornton - 3
H. Sedin - 3
McDavid - 3
Assorted - 1

It comes off as manipulative that you try and lump Crosby in with Thornton, H. Sedin and Backstrom in the sense "guys known to be playmakers, not goal scorers, and wow, look at how much he scored even though that wasn't really his thing" to build up his legend a bit more. Crosby was a great goal scorer and a great playmaker and was always known to be both. The years of Crosby-Ovechkin discourse has perhaps clouded your brain on this.

Crosby's ten year prime - 06/07 to 16/17:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Assists per game:

Crosby - 0.83
Thornton - 0.76
Sedin - 0.74
Backstrom - 0.74

And Crosby was not feeding pucks to argubly the GOAT goalscorer of all-time or his twin.

 

[daver]

Crosby is a great goal-scorer, I actually like his goal-scoring a lot. He's such a great player with varied talents, and he can adjust and continuously improve his game.

I compare his goal-scoring to Howe, Gretzky, and McDavid. Four of the best hockey players ever, and they were all capable of leading the League in goal-scoring, and all created opportunities to score because of their all-around greatness.

But, were any of them ever the best goal-scorer in hockey? Probably not.

Watching McDavid now....he's good enough to lead the NHL in goals, but he's just not as good as guys like Matthews and Pastrnak. When McDavid is in the high slot, he just doesn't look very dangerous, with respect to shooting the puck. But he is certainly dangerous with his speed.

Howe was pretty nifty around the net, and he was very strong and could shoot from a distance. But he didn't quite have the goal-scoring instincts of Richard or Hull.

Gretzky's goal-scoring was too era-dependent; he didn't have the physical strength to score from a distance, and struggled to score when the League improved.

Crosby's a good goal-scorer, but he's not Ovechkin, Stamkos, Pastrnak, or Matthews.

The OP is looking at his goalscoring in a vacuum but this highlights the challenge with looking at goalscoring in a vacuum. Howe and Wayne have the numbers that place them in the (Top 6/Top 3) all-time for goalscorers but not the obvious goalscoring skill in terms of a GOAT shot (I agree it is debatable whether Wayne's slapper is era-proof). They like Crosby, just seemed to get goals or create goals, in a whole bunch of ways.

It would have been a less effective use of Crosby's talents to make him the designated triggerman throughout his career. And how much does one factor in a player's playmaking responsibilities in evaluating their goalscoring. I cannot place OV and Hull ahead of Wayne and Mario even if marginal arguments can be made given the overall offensive marks they made on the game.

Crosby, IMO, loses nothing due to lower goalscoring placements given he was clearly an all around offensive force who notably raised the level of play of his linemates. His point totals and PPG are the measure of his contribution rather than focusing on goalscoring.

In the Crosby vs. Ovechkin debate, you could certainly point to OV as the player you want on the ice in order to score a goal in the last minute but Crosby was the guy you wanted for the other 59 minutes to give your team a better chance of not being down a goal with a minute left.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

For a player generally considered a playmaker and is arguably is the best playmaker of his generation, he is notching some notable goalscoring milestones.

Where does he rank as a goalscorer?

T1 most single season playoff goals of his era
#2 goalscorer of his era
T2 all-time Rocket Richard wins
#3 in GPG of his era (min. 800 games)
#3 in playoff goals of his era
T11th in # of 30 goal seasons all-time
#20 in all-time goalscoring
#22 in all-time GPG (min. 800 games)


From a purely goalscoring standpoint, is he Top 20 all-time?

By the time he retires he should be. Always found him to be very underrated in that department

 

[Midnight Judges]

In the Crosby vs. Ovechkin debate, you could certainly point to OV as the player you want on the ice in order to score a goal in the last minute but Crosby was the guy you wanted for the other 59 minutes to give your team a better chance of not being down a goal with a minute left.

Pretty inconvenient that peak Ovechkin >> Peak Crosby

Hooray for the history revision forum.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Somewhat related...

Crosby has 18 seasons with more assists than goals and 0 seasons with more goals than assists. However, in 2023-2024 he has 6 more goals than assists with 31 games to play.

Will he fall off this list of players who have at least 18 seasons with more assists than goals and 0 seasons with more goals than assists?

View attachment 821416

Surprised by some of the names on this list. Sakic, Yzerman and Fedorov? Really? Hunter and Brind'Amour... WTF...

 

[MadLuke]

Surprised by some of the names on this list. Sakic, Yzerman and Fedorov? Really? Hunter and Brind'Amour... WTF...

Not sure here, Sakic-Yzerman were good scorer but not bad playmaker and centers (just normal to have more assist than goals, there is like 1.7 assist for every goal in the nhl during their career).

 

[Michael Farkas]

Pretty inconvenient that peak Ovechkin >> Peak Crosby

That's not what happened.

There, now the universe is even again.

 

[MadLuke]

Pretty inconvenient that peak Ovechkin >> Peak Crosby

Not sure of that, with what Crosby was able to do at 5v5 with Pascal Dupuis and Kunitz was special.

That peak (+2.63 by 60 minutes at 5v5) Crosby was a menace:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

While being a top powerplay producer:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[Midnight Judges]

Not sure of that, with what Crosby was able to do at 5v5 with Pascal Dupuis and Kunitz was special.

2 good defensively responsible top line players who were 20-25 goal / 50/60 point guys before ever putting on a Pens jersey?

For years Pens fans told us for years they were AHL caliber players.

It is indeed pretty good that Dupuis was able to put up 25 goals and 59 points in a season on the Penguins. Unfortunately for the 'Crosby made Dupuis and Kunitz' argument, Crosby barely played in Dupuis's best season.

 

[dalewood12]

Imagine in 2007 finding out that Crosby would retire with as many Art Ross trophies as Rocket Richard trophies.

 

[MadLuke]

2 good defensively responsible top line players who were 20-25 goal / 50/60 point guys before ever putting on a Pens jersey?

Yes regular Top 6 guy, not special good first liner, Dupuis did not put more than 12 goals in a season from 2006 to 2010.

In that time frame when they were not playing with Crosby, they were not special.

In 2010-2011 Dupuis GF%
With Crosby on the Ice: 68.57%
Without Crosby on the Ice: 27.27%

For years Pens fans told us for years they were AHL caliber players.

you were probably invovled in a troll fight or do you really think a Penguins fans thought that Chris Kunitz was not an legit nhler ?

Crosby barely played in Dupuis's best season.

Maybe but the little amount Crosby was there, a ridiculous 6.62 goal by 60 minutes were scored when they were on the ice together at 5v5 in 2012.

Dupuis scored 14G-21A-35 pts in 60 games without Crosby that year, perfectly fine 19G-28A-48 pts by 82 games pace, thats exactly what 2003 Dupuis did.

When Crosby played Dupuis scored 11G-13A-24 pts in just 22 games, a 41 goals, 90 points type of pace.

 

[daver]

Yes regular Top 6 guy, not special good first liner, Dupuis did not put more than 12 goals in a season from 2006 to 2010.

In that time frame when they were not playing with Crosby, they were not special.

In 2010-2011 Dupuis GF%
With Crosby on the Ice: 68.57%
Without Crosby on the Ice: 27.27%



you were probably invovled in a troll fight or do you really think a Penguins fans thought that Chris Kunitz was not an legit nhler ?


Maybe but the little amount Crosby was there, a ridiculous 6.62 goal by 60 minutes were scored when they were on the ice together at 5v5 in 2012.

Dupuis scored 14G-21A-35 pts in 60 games without Crosby that year, perfectly fine 19G-28A-48 pts by 82 games pace, thats exactly what 2003 Dupuis did.

When Crosby played Dupuis scored 11G-13A-24 pts in just 22 games, a 41 goals, 90 points type of pace.

The irony is that is that when narratives are thrown around and disproved it become clear that Crosby may have had the least talented linemates throughout his career in comparison to the other Top 10 forwards.

It is something that should strengthen his resume when being compared with other similarly productive forwards. From the goalscoring perspective, you can argue that he was able to score goals without a notable playmaker on his line which, again, strengthens his resume and the idea that he "focused" on goalscoring and saw results as opposed to riding the wave of a line that was clicking.

 

[daver]

Crosby was on pace for around 60 goals in 2011, which easily would have given him the Rocket Richard trophy. (But it hurts that he only scored 35 goals over his next 82 games after 2011 - was that 60 goal pace sustainable)?

Hard to really take his post concussion play as being truly representative of what could have happened.

It is not a popular narrative but it can be reasonably argued that Crosby's unprecedented slow start (to that point in his career) in 2009/10, where he was at a 0.96 PPG and and a 0.46 GPG thru 26 games, was due to Cup hangover.

Through the last 55 games he was at a 1.53 PPG and a 0.71 GPG (a 58 goal pace). It is quite reasonable to assume a 50 goal pace for the rest of the 10/11 season which puts him at 55 goals or so.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

The irony is that is that when narratives are thrown around and disproved it become clear that Crosby may have had the least talented linemates throughout his career in comparison to the other Top 10 forwards.

It is something that should strengthen his resume when being compared with other similarly productive forwards. From the goalscoring perspective, you can argue that he was able to score goals without a notable playmaker on his line which, again, strengthens his resume and the idea that he "focused" on goalscoring and saw results as opposed to riding the wave of a line that was clicking.

Sure if you ignore how much defensive attention he didn't get because teams also had to stop the other Top 3 player in the league on the team in Malkin.

As much as average at best linemates hurt Crosby, he was helped by having Malkin on the team

 

[daver]

Sure if you ignore how much defensive attention he didn't get because teams also had to stop the other Top 3 player in the league on the team in Malkin.

As much as average at best linemates hurt Crosby, he was helped by having Malkin on the team

It's been clearly established that Crosby was the #1C and took on the other teams best lines and d-pairings so Malkin could take advantage of the easier matchups.

What about the other Top 5/10 forwards? Are you arguing that they also had lesser linemates and even lesser teammates?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hard to really take his post concussion play as being truly representative of what could have happened.

It is not a popular narrative but it can be reasonably argued that Crosby's unprecedented slow start (to that point in his career) in 2009/10, where he was at a 0.96 PPG and and a 0.46 GPG thru 26 games, was due to Cup hangover.

Through the last 55 games he was at a 1.53 PPG and a 0.71 GPG (a 58 goal pace). It is quite reasonable to assume a 50 goal pace for the rest of the 10/11 season which puts him at 55 goals or so.

It's just variance. Same as Crosby's unsustainable shooting % in 2010-11 pre-concussion. He didn't unlock a secret formula for beating goaltenders, he was just on a heater. As proved by the shooting % regression the rest of his career.

 

[daver]

It's just variance. Same as Crosby's unsustainable shooting % in 2010-11 pre-concussion. He didn't unlock a secret formula for beating goaltenders, he was just on a heater. As proved by the shooting % regression the rest of his career.

Notice I didn't say he would have kept up his pre-concussion pace but rather picked some middle ground as reasonable.

He was on a "heater" for 90 games when he got concussed. Does he win the Rocket that season at the very least that season? No reason to think one of the best non-Wayne/Mario offensive players of all-time doesn't.

 

[WarriorofTime]

He was on a "heater" for 90 games when he got concussed.

I mean I would reckon he didn't suddenly uncover a newfound holy grail on November 28, 2009 that allowed him to shoot 19.9 % for that 93 game and only that 93 game stretch of his career, never to be replicated either before or after. Rather I would reckon that he was an extremely talented player that was in the prime of his career and experiencing the positive side of variance.

Is that an unreasonable position?

 

[daver]

I mean I would reckon he didn't suddenly uncover a newfound holy grail on November 28, 2009 that allowed him to shoot 19.9 % for that 93 game and only that 93 game stretch of his career, never to be replicated either before or after. Rather I would reckon that he was an extremely talented player that was in the prime of his career and experiencing the positive side of variance.

Is that an unreasonable position?

Here are what the stats say:

His highest Shots per game in a season (with Goals per game placing)

1. 2010/11 - 3.93 SPG (1st in GPG)
2. 2009/10 - 3.68 SPG (2nd in GPG)
3. 2023/24 - 3.58 SPG (6th in GPG) * at age 36
4. 2012/13 - 3.44 SPG (T15th in GPG)
5. 2005/06 - 3.43 SPG (19th in GPG) * rookie season
6 2016/17 - 3.40 SPG (1st in GPG)
7. 2007/08 - 3.26 SPG (13th in GPG)
8. 2013/14 - 3.24 SPG (T11th in GPG)
9. 2006/07 - 3.16 SPG (22nd in GPG)
10. 2022/23 - 3.11 SPG (T46 in GPG)

COMMENT: There is a clear correlation between the # of shots taken and his GPG placing. When age is considered, his three Rocket level seasons are #1, #2 and #4 out of his 20 seasons plus his notable goalscoring season at age 36 is #3. There is also no clear pattern that, throughout his career, he went from shooting a lot to a lesser amount or went from shooting a lesser amount to a lot.


His highest Shooting % in a season (with Goals per game placing)

1. 2010/11 - 19.9% (1st in GPG)
2. 2016/17 - 17.3% (1st in GPG)
3. 2009/10 - 17.1% (2nd in GPG)
4. 2023/24 - 16.3 % (6th in GPG) * at age 36
5. 2018/19 - 15.9% (23rd in GPG)
6. 2020/21 - 15.1% (17th in GPG)
7. 2021/22 - 14.9% (T36th in GPG)
8. 2019/20 - 14.7% (T33rd in GPG)
9. 2015/16 - 14.5% (10th in GPG)
10. 2006/07 - 14.4% (22nd in GPG)

COMMENT: There is a clear correlation between shooting % and his GPG placing. His three Rocket level seasons are #1, #2 and #3 out of his 20 seasons, plus his notable goalscoring season at age 36 is #4. There is a clearer pattern that, throughout his career, his shooting % improved as he hit his peak then stayed higher than his pre-peak.


Let's take a closer look at his two Rocket winning seasons to see if there is a pattern:

In 2009/10, after 26 games, Crosby was 21st in GPG with 3.58 SPG and a shooting % of 12.9%. Over the next 55 games, he was 1st in GPG with a 3.73 SPG and a shooting % of 19.0%. So he had hot a hot hand and shot more after a slow start.

In 2016/17, he had a great first half of the season, after 39 games he was 1st in GPG with 3.36 SPG and a shooting % of 20.6. Over the next 32 games, he was 15th in GPG with a 3.42 SPG and a shooting % of 13.1%. So he cooled down and shot slightly more.

There is no discernable pattern to correlate shooting % with the # of shots taken.


CONCLUSION: In 2010/11, it is reasonable to believe his shooting % would decrease from 19.9% but unless you think he was going to shoot significantly less per game over his last 41 games, there is no reason to think he regresses to his "usual" GPG placing (between 10th and 20th) by the end of the season.

A Rocket win, and the most convincing one of his career, is the reasonable estimate. A "One of the best Rocket wins of his era" would have been just as likely as him not winning the Rocket.


FUN FACT: Crosby's highest GPG finish over a completed season (min. 30 games) other than his three Rocket level seasons is 10th place. During his prime, he averaged a 19th placing in GPG.

I doubt there is another two-time goalscoring winner with such a wide resume of GPG finishes.