Speculation: Where do the Bruins Finish 2023-24?

Where do the Bruins finish 2023-24?

  • Top 3 Atlantic

    Votes: 63 28.0%
  • Wild Card

    Votes: 98 43.6%
  • Just miss the playoffs

    Votes: 57 25.3%
  • Cellar dwellers

    Votes: 7 3.1%

  • Total voters
    225

MarchysNoseKnows

Big Hat No Cattle
Feb 14, 2018
8,453
16,600
Toronto stole our best playoff performer from last season, added Domi, Klingberg. They are better in my book. While I agree that Florida barely made the playoff, they did beat us and went to the Cup finals so idk how some1 can say we are better than them.
They still have to clear $3M from the cap. They have Klingberg as a second pair “defenseman”. Even most Leafs fans don’t think they’re better than last year.

And we’re talking about the regular season, since we’re projecting who is making the playoffs. So how did Florida get better?
 

EverettMike

FIRE DON SWEENEY INTO THE SUN
Mar 7, 2009
44,518
31,621
Everett, MA
twitter.com
The Bruins allowed 177 goals last season. No other team allowed under 200.

The Bruins scored 305 goals. Only Edmonton scored more with McDavid and Draisautl.

A 128 goal differential. No one else within 40 goals of that.

Would be good to know how long they played with the and how long they played while behind. Having the lead the vast majority of the time means they are not pressing as often as their opponents. Could have a large effect on possession time.

Yes, but there are some great advanced stats that go beyond GF and GA that calculate expected GF and expected GA, and the Bruins blew their expected number out of the water. Depending on which model you look at they were anywhere from +45 to +70 above, which is incredible. Basically more than double any other team.

When projecting future performance you're better off looking at expected numbers because they do a better job of eliminating luck, but of course you should look at the real numbers as well.

Either way, the original larger point stands: the Bruins record/point total was inflated by a combination of good luck, good performance, and a million other things, but even if they returned the exact same roster we would expect major regression.
 
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EverettMike

FIRE DON SWEENEY INTO THE SUN
Mar 7, 2009
44,518
31,621
Everett, MA
twitter.com
From a completely anecdotal point of view, I remember more than a few games where they got outplayed and won anyway. Superlative goaltending covers a lot of flaws.

There were a lot of games where it felt like we allowed ~40 shots. STL, OTT, CGY, NJD... I remember the EDM game in EDM where it felt like we were dominated and Ullmark stole the show. Remember the Calgary game? I think he made 60 saves in that one. Swayman too, had some big games against FLA, CAR, SEA...

Last year really was a perfect storm kind of season, if the offense lagged they got amazing goaltending, and when the goaltending lagged they got offense from everyone.

100%

The GDTs are full of games where we all laughed about how they sort of slept-walk through the first two periods before either turning it on in the 3rd or catching some break that let them win. It wasn't this end-to-end dominance game after game, it was often a tremendous 20-minutes that was the difference after a lackluster 40 where goaltending kept them in it.

That can work for a month or even a season as we just saw, but it doesn't work forever.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

Big Hat No Cattle
Feb 14, 2018
8,453
16,600
Yes, but there are some great advanced stats that go beyond GF and GA that calculate expected GF and expected GA, and the Bruins blew their expected number out of the water. Depending on which model you look at they were anywhere from +45 to +70 above, which is incredible. Basically more than double any other team.

When projecting future performance you're better off looking at expected numbers because they do a better job of eliminating luck, but of course you should look at the real numbers as well.

Either way, the original larger point stands: the Bruins record/point total was inflated by a combination of good luck, good performance, and a million other things, but even if they returned the exact same roster we would expect major regression.
Advanced analytics smh my head. Use your eyes.
 

Dennis Bonvie

Registered User
Dec 29, 2007
29,548
18,027
Connecticut
It's a fair question. At 5v5, the Bruins spent 1797 mins ahead, 1325 mins tied, and 727 mins behind. Obviously they spent more time with a lead than any other team in the league. But that doesn't actually really change the main advanced stats very much, except in one regard. In terms of league rankings, situationally they were as follows:

Leading: 10th CF%, 11th SF%, 7th SCF%, 10th HDCF%, 10th xGF%.

Tied: 11th CF%, 5th SF%, 10th SCF%, 12th HDCF%, 7th xGF%.

Behind: 12th CF%, 5th SF%, 3rd SCF%, 4th HDCF%, 3rd xGF%.

Their numbers when games were tied are still not particularly special - good, top-10 in the league for sure, but nothing more than that. Mostly look much the same as their overall figures I posted previously. The interesting thing is when they were leading it didn't change too much. Yeah their corsi and shot counts slipped a bit as you would expect, but they were still out-chancing their opposition and putting themselves in good positions to score at about the same rate as when games were tied. Which rather suggests that being in front didn't change too much about how they went about things.

Where the Bs really excelled was when they were trailing. Really good numbers there around their ability to generate quality scoring chances and volume of shots. Still not league-leading, but certainly right at the pointy end.

I think then that your point is generally valid - no doubt being in front a lot had an impact on the Bruins' advanced stats and their numbers when trailing probably give some decent indication of the high level and elevated offensive potency they could reach quite consistently when they needed to. But even these figures are still not especially outstanding, and when considering both these and the tied-game stats, the indication is still that Boston's general play when all-square or chasing the game was very good rather than absolutely elite.

I'll throw in one more stat I think is super-impressive and relevant: the Bruins' SV% when trailing in games was .959. That's ridiculous. When the going was tough Swayman and especially Ullmark kept the team in the hunt and within striking distance of opponents time and time again and gave them opportunities to get back into and win or tie games well beyond what you could reasonably ask for. The goalie factor was huge for us.

I don't want to oversell that or any of this analytics stuff. Clearly last season's Bruins did an exceptional job. I'm just saying that when you look a little deeper, the team's play was not quite as dominant as might appear at first glance, or perhaps more accurately, it was dominant at least partly due to some significant factors that cannot easily be replicated, even if the same personnel are in place. It's not to be negative, just cautious.

My old-school thinking goes back to the basics. The point of the game is to score goals (301) and prevent goals (174). The 2022-23 Bruins did that in an historical manner.

Yes, caution should be taken going forward, especially considering the loss of some very important players. Even with all the same personal a 135 point season would be difficult to duplicate. But we really don't need the advance stats from last season to tell us that.
 

Dennis Bonvie

Registered User
Dec 29, 2007
29,548
18,027
Connecticut
Yes, but there are some great advanced stats that go beyond GF and GA that calculate expected GF and expected GA, and the Bruins blew their expected number out of the water. Depending on which model you look at they were anywhere from +45 to +70 above, which is incredible. Basically more than double any other team.

When projecting future performance you're better off looking at expected numbers because they do a better job of eliminating luck, but of course you should look at the real numbers as well.

Either way, the original larger point stands: the Bruins record/point total was inflated by a combination of good luck, good performance, and a million other things, but even if they returned the exact same roster we would expect major regression.

And yet you have just shown how expected numbers were completely wrong for the Bruins.

As you said, even with the same roster they wouldn't be able to come close to last seasons point total. But do we really need advanced stats to tell us that?
 

Aussie Bruin

Registered User
Sponsor
Aug 3, 2019
10,007
22,315
Victoria, Aus
My old-school thinking goes back to the basics. The point of the game is to score goals (301) and prevent goals (174). The 2022-23 Bruins did that in an historical manner.

Yes, caution should be taken going forward, especially considering the loss of some very important players. Even with all the same personal a 135 point season would be difficult to duplicate. But we really don't need the advance stats from last season to tell us that.

You don't, but it can be nice, and useful, to look at the numbers anyway and see if they back up what you're seeing. I'm a professional analyst, and reality is a good 75% of what I produce is telling people what they already know through intuition and observation. That's the way of it. It's finding those figures or those things that don't match expectations, or which provide deeper context and nuance as to what's going on, that's the key and the challenge in providing value for your end users. Sometimes that's quite easy, others not so much!
 

13Hockey

Go Bruins
Jul 20, 2006
25,011
20,785
Boston
Last year

Line 1
Marchand Bergeron DeBrusk v
Marchand Coyle DeBrusk

Offensively 13 out produced 37 at 5 on 5 last year 34 points to 31…63 will have a better year with health

So wash on offfense maybe better but worst on D

Line 2
Zacha Krejci Pasta
JVR Zacha Pasta

Krejci was our 2nd best producer at 5 on 5 so it will be a tall task for JVR to fill those shoes and Pasta will probably regress

This line is where I’m worried about the biggest drop off in production

Line 3
Hall Coyle Frederic vs
Frederic Poitras Geekie

Can Poitras get us 34 EV points like Coyle did ?
Can Freddy get 17 EV goals again ?
Can Geekie replicate last year great 5 v 5 play and give us 25 points like Hall did ?

I think Geekie can replicate Hall I think Freddy will come close it will all come down to Poitras and or Heinen if MP gets sent back

Lot of question marks but I have faith this line can come close to Last years 3rd line production

Line 4
Foligno Nosek Greer vs
Lucic Beecher Lauko

Last year these 3 got us 22 goals
I’m confident our new 4th line can match that production

2nd and 3rd line are the big questions

I’m confident lines 1 and 4 offensively won’t suffer much defense is another story

Hopefully we can survive until the deadline offensively and have enough space to add a legit top 6 forward and all the lines will have more balance and depth..Don always crushes it on trade deadline day
 
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PlayMakers

Moderator
Aug 9, 2004
25,221
25,085
Medfield, MA
www.medpuck.com
I've been pleasantly surprised to see so many national media folks, algorithms and betting odds place us securely in a playoff spot, so hopefully my concerns don't amount to anything.

I picked the team to compete for a wild card spot. I'm thinking 7th to 9th in the East. But after watching the preseason games and training camp, I've got some concerns...

Zacha didn't look like he was taking another step. That line is going to need another play driver and if it's not going to be Zacha then who?

Everyone says defense and goaltending will be a strength, but team defense involves centers, and two of our centers are rookies. So I'm actually concerned that we won't defend well. And if we're not defending well, what's going to do to our goaltending?

Forbort-Shattenkirk. Shat had one of the worst pre-seasons I've ever seen. Pre-season I know, but what he's just going to flip a switch and not miss every pass and make bad reads and be 2x faster? Here's hoping. :crossfing

Most of all, Jim Montgomery's sytem adjustments... Dzone coverage, breakouts, passive forecheck, 3 high Ozone scheme... it all looked pretty suspect in the pre-season. Hopefully, that was a function of having a mixed lineup but even when we had all 5 vets on the ice they looked bad.
 
Last edited:

HustleB

Cautiously Optimistic
Sponsor
Jul 20, 2017
2,766
3,077
Welcome to the Jungle
Last minute change. I went from wild card to top 3 in the Atlantic. I have car number 1 in the East. We will need to beat out two from TAM, TOR and NJD. Not easy but I like our team a lot. I'm dreaming of a hungry team for 82 games plus.
 

KrugAvoy

Registered User
Aug 11, 2017
1,706
2,932
Lowell
Originally I voted wild card #2 . However I'm slightly going to change that. I feel we're ATL3 or WC1
 

BruinsFan37

Registered User
Jun 26, 2015
1,603
1,725
I still say wild-card is the safe bet. I wouldn't be shocked if they slip into the top-3 or fall out of the playoffs. Something like 35% chance top-3, 55% chance wildcard, 10% miss.

Bruins this year are a bubble team, with a (much) better than average chance of making the playoffs, and with all teams in that position, it will come down to injuries and man-games lost.
 

RoccoF14

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Mar 1, 2016
5,617
8,389
Chicago, IL
If they get lucky with injuries they can make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I don’t think that happens and they come up just short.

I just don’t think they have the depth up front, so my expectations aren’t very high. Hopefully they surprise me.
 
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Boston Bruno

Mostly not serious input..
Nov 2, 2002
13,588
3,079
Calgary
I think if the bruins face off percentages dont collapse (losing Nosek also may hurt that)
they might make wc2 - but even if we do I dont expect to go far with 1-2 C like we have.

We will know alot more by USA Thanksgiving..
 

DaBroons

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
1,407
840
They are a playoff team, not sure where they end up. Having the best goaltending duo and a top 5 D gets them there. They still have 3 legit top 6 wingers and Zacha and Coyle are 2nd and 3rd line centers who will be asked to play up in the lineup, the huge gigantic hole is that there is no legit #1 guy. I think this team will once again relish the underdog role and Marchand will make a great captain. Don't underestimate the value of having Looch back, he brings leadership and badly needed toughness to this team, real toughness.
We haven't had a legit #1 center since perhaps Marc Savard. Bergy and Krejci were both 1.5 centers, IMO, much better than #2 centers, but not really the point producing #1 center that many teams have. Yet, 2 X 1.5 = 3, the same as 1+2 = 3. :cool: However, Krejci twice led the playoffs in scoring, just wasn't that type of center in the regular season.
 
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PlayMakers

Moderator
Aug 9, 2004
25,221
25,085
Medfield, MA
www.medpuck.com
CAR
NJ
TO
BUF

FLA
TB
NYR

BOS/OTT

PIT
WSH
NYI

DET
MTL

Those feel like the groupings to me.

The top group is very strong.

The second group seems too solid to miss.

Boston or Ottawa, for the last playoff spot.

Pit, Was and the Isles are older teams trying to remindle some magic.

Detroit and Montreal are still building.
 
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missingchicklet

Registered User
Jan 24, 2010
36,589
34,464
Voted wildcard, but top 3 wouldn't at all surprise me. So much depends on how TB will cope without Vasi and whether or not Buffalo is able to take the next step. Bs very much need the top 6 to not get injured and D like Carlo, McAvoy, and Lindholm to stay healthy. The loss of Bergy, Krejci, and Hall defensively is going to be pretty big and put more pressure on the d-men and goalies. Can the current roster cope? I think they will be fine, just not as ridiculous as last season. Crazy how much talent was lost off of last season's final roster yet the Bs still have a pretty damn good team this season.
 

DaBroons

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
1,407
840
CAR
NJ
TO
BUF

FLA
TB
NYR

BOS/OTT

PIT
WSH
NYI

DET
MTL

Those feel like the groupings to me.

The top group is very strong.

The second group seems too solid to miss.

Boston or Ottawa, for the last playoff spot.

Pit, Was and the Isles are older teams trying to remindle some magic.

Detroit and Montreal are still building.
Don't like Buffalo's goaltending, and TBL (goal) and Fla (defense) have major injury issues. Still, all have high-end talent at a number of positions. I would call them question marks rather than in a category with the other higher-end eastern teams. So, I would move Buffalo into the 2nd group

I think that Carolina and NJ are the two best eastern teams.
 
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MarchysNoseKnows

Big Hat No Cattle
Feb 14, 2018
8,453
16,600
CAR
NJ
TO
BUF

FLA
TB
NYR

BOS/OTT

PIT
WSH
NYI

DET
MTL

Those feel like the groupings to me.

The top group is very strong.

The second group seems too solid to miss.

Boston or Ottawa, for the last playoff spot.

Pit, Was and the Isles are older teams trying to remindle some magic.

Detroit and Montreal are still building.
I see it more like:

CAR
NJ
TO


BOS
FLA
TB
NYR
PIT
BUF

OTT
NYI

WSH
DET
MTL
 

PlayMakers

Moderator
Aug 9, 2004
25,221
25,085
Medfield, MA
www.medpuck.com
Don't like Buffalo's goaltending, and TBL (goal) and Fla (defense) have major injury issues. Still, all have high-end talent at a number of positions. I would call them question marks rather than in a category with the other higher-end eastern teams. So, I would move Buffalo into the 2nd group

I think that Carolina and NJ are the two best eastern teams.
Fair points. Fwiw, I think Devon Levi is going to be the answer in goal for Buffalo.
 

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