What would change your assessment of Chevy? [Mod edit: title]

[Hunter368]

OP, this franchise has zero playoff wins. Chevy has been an executive in 16 of its 17 years of it's existence, Thrashers/Jets. It will take some winning to get me on board. If you think those 16 years involved in development at the IHL/AHL/NHL levels are not an adequate timeline to have some expectations well then we just will have to disagree.
I for one do not blame him alone. Cheapman has created the shallowest headoffice in the league.

Chevy has been in the organization for only 5 years.

 

[Aavco Cup]

You can't just draft your way into a great team like a video game.

How exactly does a team become great other than by drafting great players?

Signing 30+ year old free agents to overpaid long term contracts? Don't think that's it.

Trade, trade, trade and then trade again? Basically a zero sum game. Win some lose some. Don't think that's how you become a great team either.

Great players are for the most part acquired by teams at the draft. Not sure where else they will come from?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Bemoaning decisions that weren't made is a difficult position to criticize. We have no idea how those things would turn out, so it's easy to prosthelytize that it would have proven to be a better road to take. In many cases, I'd agree with these positions.

As I have in the past, I give this management crew a C / C+. I dislike some things they've done, I like other things they've done. In the end, I think that the path they've chosen is a smart one, given the small marketplace / fixed $$'s available, and potential reluctance for UFA's to sign here unless the franchise proves to be a winner. For me, the evaluation is currently incomplete - not enough of the "draft and develop" has made it into the NHL pipeline yet.

I personally don't find anything they've done so irksome that I lose any sleep over it - for me, this is entertainment. If it makes me annoyed, then I'd probably just turn the crap off and do something more fun. I don't mind watching these struggles, as I think our prospect pool is strong, and there's hope for the future.

 

[White Out 403*]

The franchise is in a far better position now than in 2011.

Future "maybes", are better than the below average scrubs we had in 2011.

We think thats the case. Zero evidence exists to prove that out. And in fact no, our record is worse than 2011. Further to that, even if all our picks turn out awesome we may just be on a treadmill, replacing our current aged core. It will come to some point where Chevy has to make more than 1 trade every 2.5 years and do much better with signings to put us over the top. He's failed to show he has the jam to do so. Unless you think Peluso and Thor are cornerstones to a winning team

 

[Whileee]

OP, this franchise has zero playoff wins. Chevy has been an executive in 16 of its 17 years of it's existence, Thrashers/Jets. It will take some winning to get me on board. If you think those 16 years involved in development at the IHL/AHL/NHL levels are not an adequate timeline to have some expectations well then we just will have to disagree.
I for one do not blame him alone. Cheapman has created the shallowest headoffice in the league.

The false statements in your post undermine credibility.

Chevy has been the GM of this franchise for less than 5 years. His tenure with other franchises prior to joining the Jets is irrelevant to the development of this franchise.

The Jets have one of the deepest hockey personnel departments in the league, including one of the largest scouting staffs.

There are plenty of valid reasons to criticize Chevy. Why invent them?

 

[Eyeseeing]

It's clear hat for many the biases are firmly entrenched. Anything that happens from this point forward will just be used to confirm those biases. Even "lucking" into a Stanley Cup win IMO.

BTW I predict he'll be extended before the end of next season

Hi Aavco
I know we are probably on opposite sides.
If this summer comes and goes without significant changes do you still see an extension ?
I gave my reasons earlier on what would take for me to clean the slate being a doubter.
May I ask in all seriousness how long would you give Chevy ?
I ask you because I do respect your opinion and you see way more of the team up close than most of us do.

 

[Whileee]

We think thats the case. Zero evidence exists to prove that out. And in fact no, our record is worse than 2011. Further to that, even if all our picks turn out awesome we may just be on a treadmill, replacing our current aged core. It will come to some point where Chevy has to make more than 1 trade every 2.5 years and do much better with signings to put us over the top. He's failed to show he has the jam to do so. Unless you think Peluso and Thor are cornerstones to a winning team

Didn't you just complain about the use of "strawman" arguments? Ironic.

 

[White Out 403*]

Didn't you just complain about the use of "strawman" arguments? Ironic.

I was asking a question, not making an assertion

 

[Hunter368]

Bemoaning decisions that weren't made is a difficult position to criticize. We have no idea how those things would turn out, so it's easy to prosthelytize that it would have proven to be a better road to take. In many cases, I'd agree with these positions.

As I have in the past, I give this management crew a C / C+. I dislike some things they've done, I like other things they've done. In the end, I think that the path they've chosen is a smart one, given the small marketplace / fixed $$'s available, and potential reluctance for UFA's to sign here unless the franchise proves to be a winner. For me, the evaluation is currently incomplete - not enough of the "draft and develop" has made it into the NHL pipeline yet.

I personally don't find anything they've done so irksome that I lose any sleep over it - for me, this is entertainment. If it makes me annoyed, then I'd probably just turn the crap off and do something more fun. I don't mind watching these struggles, as I think our prospect pool is strong, and there's hope for the future.

My grade for this team has virtually unchanged over 5 years, I can't see how some grade Chevy better then a C or C- at best. Definition of average.....see Chevy. He's as risk adverse as any GM in the history of the NHL.....thus he tends to make fewer big mistakes and also makes very few big positive moves......thus we have very slow progress. Rebuilding still after 5 years of accessing talent of his core.

 

[Whileee]

1) I give credit to Chevy for everything he's responsible for and hold him accountable for everything equally. IMO it's yet to be proven by a single person that Chevy has drafted well......or at least how well. Love to see this done.

2) yes we are on solid footing now, but shouldn't have taken a good GM 5 years to get to this point.

3) Rational discussions impossible? I don't believe that in the least, sounds like more of an accuse just b/c someone doesn't agree with you and you can't convince them of your POV your calling them irrational. IMO that's not a fair comment. True there are some (1 or 2) here that I refuse to respond to or converse with.....but not b/c I'm consider them irrational or I'm unwilling to debate with.....they just tend to be very rude.....I don't need that in my life. Whil, I respect your opinion and have debated with you on MANY occasions......we don't always agree.....but that's ok. But I would never call you or posters here irrational.....we just share different opinions often.

1) It might take some time to see if he's drafted particularly well. Agreed. But if we insist on evaluating him now then we have to go with the evidence we have. Almost every independent assessment I've read, and even some comments from other NHL team personnel, have praised the Jets drafting. Add to that the fact that Chevy has added the equivalent of 5 first rounders and that's all you can go on. If folks want to evaluate a "draft and develop" strategy, and then say that it's a failure because it's too early to tell if the draft picks work out, it's sort of a catch-22 don't you think?

2) See #1. It does take at least 5 years to rebuild an organization through the draft. At the beginning of this year the Jets draft cohorts were 22, 21, 20, 19 and 18. How many successful teams have that age structure? How many teams can fill in a top-end roster with players at those ages?

3) I probably overstated the situation. Perhaps I should have said that it's impossible to keep irrational discussion out of the thread. It is eminently possible to converse with rational people on either side of the debate, as you have demonstrated.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I barely understand their complaints. Draft and develop have been the plan from day 1 and they've been doing a great job of it so far

I barely understand your difficulty understanding. 29 other teams are also doing D&D.

Playing devil's advocate:
It is not sufficient to do the same thing as everybody else and do it better than some of them when the goal is to get to be better than all of them.

It has a built in point of diminishing returns as you slowly climb in the standings your draft picks become weaker.

If that is your whole plan you should be supplementing your picks by converting aging or marginal assets into more picks at the high end. Adding late picks (5th rd +) does not count.

You should not trade picks for stop gap help.

The future may look bright but right now it is dull, cold, windy and rainy. That bright future may yet turn out to be a mirage. Meanwhile there are memories of missed opportunities and missteps that have lead us to the miserable state we are at now.

The complaints are not going to end until the path that has been followed actually produces real progress instead of just promise.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I'm not obtuse; if the Jets wind up being a perennial powerhouse over the next few seasons obviously his "vision" will have proven to be correct. I don't see that happening though.

I respect you for actually laying out the conditions where you admit to being wrong.

My prediction is that starting in the 2017 season we are in the playoffs every year, including some very deep runs. Of course even good teams also have some 1st round exits.

This continual playoff streak will continue for say at least 5 years. This would put us in the top 4 of longest playoff streaks in the league, if measured by today's stats.

Would that satisfy the perennial powerhouse requirement you mention?

 

[Eyeseeing]

Great post MS
Where Chevy could greatly improve in my eyes is fixing his mistakes not extending them.
I still get perplexed about loyalty contracts to scrubs but no loyalty to Ladd.
Yes the dollars and term are vastly different but you would have gotten way more value out of Ladd than the gang of 3 we still employ and will likely continue to employ performance be damned .

 

[Eyeseeing]

I respect you for actually laying out the conditions where you admit to being wrong.

My prediction is that starting in the 2017 season we are in the playoffs every year, including some very deep runs. Of course even good teams also have some 1st round exits.

This continual playoff streak will continue for say at least 5 years. This would put us in the top 4 of longest playoff streaks in the league, if measured by today's stats.

Would that satisfy the perennial powerhouse requirement you mention?

Can you clarify
16/17
Or 17/18
Hope you are correct either way !

 

[Whileee]

I've stated for years that of the ways to build a team, signing players, trades, and, drafting, the GM is least hands on for drafting. If our drafting was bad I wouldn't blame Chevy that much, its up to the scouts to find the players and make those recommendations. It's their life and full time job.

Kane/Bogosian trade was a win but really depends on how Roslovic turns out. Ladds trade is too early to say. Chevys failure to secure Andrew at a reasonable rate prior to this season forced our hand in trading him. We'll see how Dano and our pick turn out. Until then impossible to judge this trade.

Stuart, Thorburn, Peluso, and Pavelec say hello.

Stuart, Thorburn, Pavelec and Peluso all say hello again.

Oh yes, watching Ondrej the giant has been very savory for 5 years

You assume that Chevy could have secured Ladd at a reasonable rate prior to the season. There is no evidence to support that at all. You set up a premise without any evidence and then judge Chevy against that imaginary scenario.

Stuart has been a negative drag on performance and a bad signing. Do I need to sign a declaration, or do my hundreds of posts complaining about Stuart suffice?

Pavs? (see under Stuart).

Thorbs and Peluso on the roster have probably not been very consequential to the Jets overall performance. If you go by a summary stat like WAR (wins above replacement), they are in the same territory as Kris Russell (who the genius Jim Nill traded for), and not as bad as Jim Slater (who the Jets dropped). I have always been more concerned about the concept of keeping some muscle on the roster, which is why I think the Jets dress one of them every game.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Can you clarify
16/17
Or 17/18
Hope you are correct either way !

17/18.

Next year is iffy because we'll still have so many players with 1 or fewer years nhl experience.

Heh, long term bet. But it gives us something to gage along the way, and might be fun.

 

[Whileee]

I barely understand your difficulty understanding. 29 other teams are also doing D&D.

Playing devil's advocate:
It is not sufficient to do the same thing as everybody else and do it better than some of them when the goal is to get to be better than all of them.

It has a built in point of diminishing returns as you slowly climb in the standings your draft picks become weaker.

If that is your whole plan you should be supplementing your picks by converting aging or marginal assets into more picks at the high end. Adding late picks (5th rd +) does not count.

You should not trade picks for stop gap help.

The future may look bright but right now it is dull, cold, windy and rainy. That bright future may yet turn out to be a mirage. Meanwhile there are memories of missed opportunities and missteps that have lead us to the miserable state we are at now.

The complaints are not going to end until the path that has been followed actually produces real progress instead of just promise.

Jets improved their odds in the draft and develop by investing substantially in scouting and development, and by greatly increasing their total pick value through trades. Acquiring the equivalent of 5 first round picks greatly outweighs anything they've traded away. I did a quick calculation on the total pick value acquired and traded away - it was something like 2500 in and 450 out.

 

[Eyeseeing]

17/18.

Next year is iffy because we'll still have so many players with 1 or fewer years nhl experience.

Heh, long term bet. But it gives us something to gage along the way, and might be fun.

I'll drink to that !!!
Oh but it's not 5 yet

 

[cbcwpg]

What's it going to take for the [doubters] to forget about the past and buckle up for the future? Chevy's likely not going anywhere soon but his get out of jail free cards are gone and everything's on the table now. I say in exchange for forgiving any miscues Chevy has made in the past and accepting the fact that we're stuck with him for now, we should be able to hold him to an absolute zero-tolerance policy from here on out and demand the best product possible from this team.

Does that sound fair?

The past is all you can use to judge GMs or coaches on, because, well quite frankly, it's impossible to judge them on a future that hasn't happened yet. I'm pretty sure every hockey fan in Edmonton went into the next season with optimism only to be disappointed once again. So yes, we can all say the future looks so bright we need to wear shades, but until it happens, you can't say it turned out good.

At the end of the day maybe the team and future is better, but all we have to show for it so far is 5 years of nothing.

It's funny you say we are stuck with Chevy. Other than Pavelec I would like to believe we aren't stuck with anyone and anyone can be replaced if it makes the team better.

This is Chevy's defining moment... if the future becomes a repeat of the past, he will be fired.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Hi Aavco
I know we are probably on opposite sides.
If this summer comes and goes without significant changes do you still see an extension ?
I gave my reasons earlier on what would take for me to clean the slate being a doubter.
May I ask in all seriousness how long would you give Chevy ?
I ask you because I do respect your opinion and you see way more of the team up close than most of us do.

If it were up to me I'd probably let his contract ride to it's completion before deciding one way or another. I made the prediction based on the belief that Chevy is executing exactly how his employer wants him to execute his job. Also it would be unusual to let a GM have a lame duck season. So he will likely get an extension at the end of next season because that's what happens in the NHL. It probably doesn't really matter because without a return to the playoffs in 2-3 years he would likely be replaced anyway. The extension would be like a severence package in that case.

 

[tbcwpg]

We think thats the case. Zero evidence exists to prove that out. And in fact no, our record is worse than 2011. Further to that, even if all our picks turn out awesome we may just be on a treadmill, replacing our current aged core. It will come to some point where Chevy has to make more than 1 trade every 2.5 years and do much better with signings to put us over the top. He's failed to show he has the jam to do so. Unless you think Peluso and Thor are cornerstones to a winning team

I think the team is better off today than it was in 2011 for long term success, even if the product on the ice this season has produced a poor record.

I think he's failed to "show the jam" because he doesn't really see the need to do it right now, and when he does, he generally gets some reasonable deals out of the free agents he signs (Buff, Perreault, Little, Wheeler).

He's made some questionable ones but I think overall the team right now is in a better spot towards long term success.

 

[Ducky10]

The perfect recipe for quick success seems so obvious, it's truly a wonder Chevy hasn't found the page yet.

Moves he could have made, yep.
Moves he should have made, yep.
Moves he shouldn't have made, yep.
Moves he didn't make, yep.
Moves he did make, yep.

It's the balance between all those that people argue about, with very little give on their version of the best combination, and no acceptance that perhaps no combination ends of working for sure.

 

[Eyeseeing]

If it were up to me I'd probably let his contract ride to it's completion before deciding one way or another. I made the prediction based on the belief that Chevy is executing exactly how his employer wants him to execute his job. Also it would be unusual to let a GM have a lame duck season. So he will likely get an extension at the end of next season because that's what happens in the NHL. It probably doesn't really matter because without a return to the playoffs in 2-3 years he would likely be replaced anyway. The extension would be like a severence package in that case.

Thanks for this .
I appreciate the insight,it gives me a better understanding of a potential timeline from that pov
Cheers

 

[ps241]

If I was the owner I wouldn't fire Chevy yet but nor would I extend him. He is under contract until 2017-18 so he has two seasons left after this to prove he deserves to keep the job.

 

[Daximus]

How can anyone say Chevy hasn't drafted well?
It's almost like people completely ignore all the other players outside of Ehlers and Connor that he has amassed for us.
Not only that but he managed to flip Atlanta's horrible drafting choices into some pretty decent players. Armia, Lemieux and Roslovic are all great prospects. And Myers was an upgrade over Bogo.

To say we have nothing to show for his 5 years as a GM means to completely whipe out the prospect cupboard.