Speculation: What might it cost to re-sign Wild Bill?

Discussion in 'Vegas Golden Knights' started by LadyStanley, Mar 26, 2018.

  1. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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    William Karlsson's next contract a wild gamble for Golden Knights

    Most of the rest are still on their entry level contract.

    If the team and Karlsson go through arbitration, the term will be one year (until UFA eligibility).

    What term (length) and $$? Max 8 years. If $80m cap, max salary (20%) would be $16m.

    :dunno:

    He only has this season with amazing offensive output. So, probably paying for probable potential.
     
  2. Boris Zubov

    Boris Zubov Shark Hunting!

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    One option for the team is to offer him a 2-year bridge deal for $5.5M per. If he proves that this year isn't a fluke, they can try to work out a long term extension.

    Now whether or not he accepts that is another matter entirely. He could realistically ask for 6.5 a year for 4 years or maybe he gambles on himself & takes a 1 year deal at around $7M.
     
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  3. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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    He's already had a bridge deal. (ELS, bridge)

    This will be his third contract.


    So you're telling him he has to have another bridge deal?
     
  4. Boris Zubov

    Boris Zubov Shark Hunting!

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    He's still an RFA, correct? Whatever you prefer to call this contract, he's not going to cash in like an UFA. So technically it's another bridge before he hits the open market.

    Regardless of titles, he's obviously in line for a huge raise. It all depends on how many years the team wants to lock him up for. I'm not sure you can give him 6 years $40M just yet, so that's why I suggested those numbers in my first post.
     
  5. willy702

    willy702 Registered User

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    That's a tough one, I don't know if you can give him the biggest deal on this team. Will he take a Marchy type deal? If not what do you do? It's not just him, got Person/Neal to deal with, then Schmidt and Theodore in coming years. Just can't blow the cap yet.
     
  6. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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    Yes, he's a RFA. But if you want to "buy" some UFA years, it'll cost.
     
  7. Boris Zubov

    Boris Zubov Shark Hunting!

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    Agreed. It's going to be a tricky negotiation for the team. Karlsson has a ton of leverage right now.
     
  8. VegasKnightlife

    VegasKnightlife Registered User

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    Not sure. Probably a bit less than Marchy. I think Wild Bill has shown enough to be a core player.

    He is good at stealing the puck back and finishing. I doubt he scores 40 goals next season but he will still be a 20 goal plus scorer and great locker room guy.

    Maybe 3 years 16 million. A year longer than a bridge deal.
     
  9. willy702

    willy702 Registered User

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    No way he takes that though, he's going to get almost that annual in arbitration. To me it's something like 4/$21-23m. And I don't know if you can give that if you are GMGM. Might be better off trading him at peak value and hoping your kids can slot up and keep the team close to as capable going forward.
     
  10. VegasKnightlife

    VegasKnightlife Registered User

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    Trading him is definitely a possibility. Due to his age though I feel he should be more important than Perron and Neal.

    The Marchy, Smith, Karlsson line has been outstanding. If it takes 4 years 23 million to keep Wild Bill around then I think GM reluctantly gives the 4th year. It's definitely a gamble with only this stellar season.
     
  11. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    Karlsson has a really high shooting %. That won't continue year after year and every team knows it. He probably won't score 40 goals again. He had 6 goals just last year! He has also benefited from playing with Marchessault and Smith most of the year, I think every team notices that to some degree too. He is still an RFA also.

    I think a good way to go about it would be to treat him as you would a two-way center who is solid defensively and can put up 25-30 goals and 50-55 points.

    Whatever you feel is fair compensation for that type of production, not a contract as if you expect him to continue the numbers he's put up this year.
     
  12. willy702

    willy702 Registered User

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    Yes everyone knows this, but he also has an agent who is going to be desperate to make sure he gets paid right now. Maybe he and Marchy get the same general deal and then Perron gets the same AAV with shorter term and everyone can remark how great GMGM is. However I have my doubts it goes so well and then you have to think Glass and Suzuki have to be the answers further down the lineup and maybe Haula moves up and takes advantage of the first line opportunity.
     
  13. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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    6 years 5.5
     
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  14. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    I do trust Haula's numbers more than Karlsson's but even factoring in for that I think they could have near identical impact for us going forward.

    Karlsson's agent is in a tough position too. He does not want Vegas to call his bluff and take him to arbitration. A one year deal is the LAST thing he wants. There's a much greater chance he loses money than gains money by waiting a year. I think we can get a deal done in the 5-5.3 million dollar range for 4-6 years and I think that's doable by all parties.

    But I wouldn't put it passed us to deal him for something of greater value to us...say an upgraded Karlsson.
     
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  15. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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  16. Supermassive

    Supermassive Vegas Dreamin’

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    Not a chance that he signs for 4x$4.5M or a show-me deal for $2M.

    He'll start at his linemates' $5M/year deal and then start adding for his goal-scoring and center position premiums, I predict.

    $ 6.5M/year for 6 years sounds fair to me.
     
  17. BattleBorn

    BattleBorn Tuched in for the playoffs.

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    I think he needs another year prior to getting the term and money. We'll see how it shakes out, though. His value is as high as it's ever been for a new contract for himself or, in the alternative, a trade for the team, so I think it could go either way. I'm hoping for a bridge, but I think he'll get less than 6.5 if it goes to arbitration and they open that whole wound.
     
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  18. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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    I would someday like to learn how RFA, arbitration and whatnot work.
     
  19. BattleBorn

    BattleBorn Tuched in for the playoffs.

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  20. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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  21. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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    IIRC, Marche took a $5M deal when it was believed he was worth more so as not to upstage Reilly. I'd hope Karlsson would keep it within a reasonable range of that to show line unity.
     
  22. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    I think it may be overstated how much power he has in this situation. (Not by you, just in general) I think the team has most of the power here. He won't be dictating anything to them. We can afford to trade him, to do a short term deal or to give him a fair long term deal.

    Going to arbitration is way more likely to lose him money in the long run than gain him any. There's another year of injuries to worry about and his stats from his *single* good season that scream out regression on top of two prior seasons where he showed virtually nothing.

    Let alone the fact that we are a team who can afford to pay out some money and who he has a relationship with already, so if we weren't willing to meet sky high demands, say if he were looking for 6M over a long term deal, then I think he would find his market smaller and less desirable than he would like.
     
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  23. willy702

    willy702 Registered User

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    Agreed on all points. Only thing that concerns me about playing hardball is he'd be the likely consolation prize for teams who miss out on Tavares. Really concerned he'd be seen as a viable target for the Sharks who have tons of money if they don't get Tavares. Also be of interest to the Ducks who are shedding a lot of worthless veterans after this season and need a younger sniper in the worst way, although they might be doubters since they have had him before. Either way you have to worry about an RFA deal sheet from these division rivals in an attempt to mess up the ideal cap and roster situation the Knights have over them currently.
     
  24. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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    By heading to arbitration, it eliminates the ability of other teams to make an offer sheet to Karlsson.

    I anticipate the VGK to take Karlsson to arbitration to protect from offer sheets. But I would expect them to negotiate a deal before the hearing and/or award comes through.
     
  25. BattleBorn

    BattleBorn Tuched in for the playoffs.

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    We were the only team to take a player all the way through to arbitration last season with Nate Schmidt. I don't know if the front office wants to take anyone to arbitration this year if they can avoid it at all.
     

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