Speculation: What might it cost to re-sign Wild Bill?

Discussion in 'Vegas Golden Knights' started by LadyStanley, Mar 26, 2018.

  1. willy702

    willy702 Registered User

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    I'm sure they would agree to deals like the Preds have in a heartbeat. We'll see what his agent comes back with, many do exactly what Grandlund did and say we want to gamble on his ability to get a real payday once he's in UFA territory. As for "losing" him, if you have to pay 9-10m then I don't think you are really losing. You don't have him on the roster, but you also don't have that sort of commitment which prevents signing other players or other cap management opportunities. Only a handful of premium players deserve that pay and when you pay that you usually recognize the back end of the deal is not going to be worth it. Look at the Hawks, do you think they wish they could trade Toews right now? Sure the pay was worth it for the success they had but now his contract and Hossa's are total roster killers.
     
  2. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Elasmobranchology-go

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    The party that does not take the other to arbitration gets to determine the term (1 or 2 years) in arbitration. If the VGK takes him, thinking it would be 1. If Karlsson elects, of course VGK would look at two.

    There are two more things you need to consider. First is what comparables the team and agent will bring up for the hearing. And second, what his market value should be. Those may not be the same.
     
  3. Sir Goose

    Sir Goose Golden Knight Squire

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    This is why I wouldn't mind Karlsson electing and Vegas picking the 2-year deal: There shouldn't be any cap issues for the next two seasons, so he can get whatever he wants for a salary. But then you give him the big extension on July 1, 2019.
     
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  4. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    I haven't heard any expert call him a flash in the pan. There's a general consensus that this is his career year but overall I think the experts believe he's turned a corner and can be a very effective NHL center.

    But he hasn't suddenly figured out something that eluded every other hockey player for a century. His shooting % will come down. He most likely won't put up 40 goals ever again. He may not even put up 70 points again.

    I think 25-30 goals and 55-65 points plus a great defensive game at the center position is what you would be safe expecting from him for the next few years going forward.
     
  5. Aurinko

    Aurinko Registered User

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    Defensive game is something that is very hard to learn. Some people just have it.

    There are few 40 goal scorers who scored less than 25 the next season. If he scores under 30 goals it would still be considered a severe drop even with minor injuries.
     
  6. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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    Defense is why I lo
    Defense is why I love to watch this guy play. He's all over them. His goals are a nice bonus to that. He's worth 6X6 for his defense and forecheck alone, imho.
     
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  7. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    Even if he "only" gets about 30 goals and 65 points while continuing to bring everything else he does to the table, that's still in the top 20 of the most valuable centers in the league. Especially if we can lock him up for 6 or under.

    With Karlsson, Haula on the second line, Glass coming up and Eakin, Bellemare, Carpenter to fill out the bottom two spots we would have a pretty good setup down the middle.
     
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  8. DEANYOUNGBLOOD17

    DEANYOUNGBLOOD17 Registered User

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    This is a incorrect statement.....

    This only applies when the player has 2 years until he is U.F.A eligible. (Schmitt lasts year..... Vegas elected for a 2 year term)

    If Karlson goes to arbitration it will be for 1 year....... and they will not be able to negotiate a new contract (extension until after Jan 1st).....

    FYI
     
  9. DEANYOUNGBLOOD17

    DEANYOUNGBLOOD17 Registered User

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    Sorry Karrlson is 25 and is 2 years away from U.F.A...... as he has only played 5 years in the N.H.L

    He is in the exact same position as Scmidt was Last year.... and if he elects for Salary arbitration Vegas can choose the 2 year option..... Which may be the best way to go........ to see if he is a one year wonder....
     
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  10. Aurinko

    Aurinko Registered User

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    Arbitration is not an easy exit either. Like was previously said, +/- and shoot% are actually official NHL stats which will be used by the arbitrator to value player.

    His value will be sky-high in every case. The only reason he might walk away with only 6-7M$ contract is the Vegas discount he will give us. Especially if we don't win the cup...
     
  11. ColdSteel2

    ColdSteel2 Registered User

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  12. MordredGK

    MordredGK it is a silly place

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    Playing well head to head against Kopitar and Pavelski has alleviated any qualms I had about long term big money no whammies stop.
    Having said that, teams will pour over video in the summer, take him more seriously next season and I don't know if it's likely he'll get to 35 goals ever again. So 6 million per is fair, but I don't think it will be a bargain 3 years from now either.
    Having said that, trading for Erik Karlsson and convincing him and John Tavares to sign for under 10 mil would probably reduce Perron, Neal and William Karlsson's asking price on July 1st. Oh yes I just went there.:cool:
     
  13. Aurinko

    Aurinko Registered User

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    If there wasn't so much public pressure, I might consider a discount deal if I was Tavares. He might be making a lot of money, but the East coast teams he has for options are currently looking brutal. That being said it is just a wishful thinking and what kind of role would he play here anyway? A 2nd line center? EK is more likely option, but there is really not a 100% certainty he would make this team better. Fcking up team chemistry should always be a real concern. Most thought that the D would be the weakest link of the Vegas, but so far they have been solid as hell.
     
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  14. Vegas Mac

    Vegas Mac Golden Shellback

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    It's crazy to look at that goal he scored last night to seal a big win in San Jose, and to realize that next year he's probably going to miss it... :D
     
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  15. Vegas Mac

    Vegas Mac Golden Shellback

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    So you recognize he's played head to head with elite centermen but he's worth $6M? Oh and of course he won't get to 35 goals again, I mean he can't be that good right?

    Nonsense. Translation in the above is that as a GM you would lose a top young player due to bean counting and fear management. Why would he sign a $6M contract? C'mon man. You know better, even if you don't realize it.
     
  16. MordredGK

    MordredGK it is a silly place

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    o_O OK you lost me.
     
  17. IceNeophyte

    IceNeophyte Registered User

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    If GMs pour over his video, they will see that aside from his scoring, even if that's attributed to luck, he is a BEAST on the backcheck and forecheck. His play has epitomized the "200 foot player," and if GMs put money where their mouths are, he's good for a nice contract.
     
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  18. ColdSteel2

    ColdSteel2 Registered User

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    I think you can go one of two ways. Short term or 1 year deal at 5-6M, see if he duplicates this, then sign him for 10M+ or offer him a long term deal at around 7.5M right now.
     
  19. MordredGK

    MordredGK it is a silly place

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    that's not what I said. I said other teams will go over video aka scouting to learn how to defend against him just like any emerging star.
     
  20. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    This isn't brought up a lot but we have 0 state income tax. There's maybe four teams in the league that could boast that. And the cost of living in LV is lower than a lot of places. I understand players earn half their money in road games but that means they earn half their money at home games.

    It isn't a massive difference but I think it generally means on big deals, we could probably pay guys around 500K less than most other teams and it wouldn't really affect how many real dollars they would pocket.
     
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  21. ChanceVegas

    ChanceVegas It's called a Gila Monster

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    [​IMG]

    Wild Bill's agent right now.
     
  22. MordredGK

    MordredGK it is a silly place

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    SHOWS ME THA COMPARABLES, WILD AGENT

    me.

    Well this was the sticking point for Radulov last year. In Dallas the same deal Montreal offered got him something like 950k per year more.
     
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  23. Vegan Knight

    Vegan Knight Registered User

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    For a comparable, does Tyler Johnson work? He was the same age and an RFA when he signed his 7 year, 35 million contract (5 million AAV) last year.

    Same position, he had a 72 point season, also had another 50 point year and another season he finished with 45 and probably would have hit 50 again if not for injury so he was a much more proven point producing commodity at that point. And he never had a shooting % you would think would come down.

    He was also great in the playoffs the year they went to the Cup Final and the year after.
     
  24. psycat

    psycat Registered User

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    Thing is I used to be sceptical and frankly I dont like William all that much as he played for a rival team in Sweden, also he was highly medicore while playing here. But really he pass the eye test, idk how he did it but his shot is so deadly all of a sudden, quick release, accurate and so on. He look like atleast a borderline star and at times he look like the second coming of Kovalchuk.

    Have a really hard time to believe he would drop down below 30 goals next season with those qualities.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2018
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  25. Pirate Deadpool

    Pirate Deadpool Sinbin Ken is stupid

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    He's making money in this series right now. Great shooting, passing, and solid d. I think he's easily worth between 7 and 8 mil a year. I'm scared that if he does sign a show me deal and gets 35 to 40+ goals again and is again clutch in playoff games, he'll be getting closer to 9 to 10 mil a season and that would hurt the team's cap. I also do believe that the chemistry he has might not be able to be duplicated on another team. If I'm his agent, I walk away from anything less than 6 mil a year. I hope I'm wrong and he'll sign a long term deal for less than six.

    I think the Tyler Johnson deal is a huge home town discount deal. I doubt wild Bill signs a long term deal just barely better than Tatar's contract.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2018
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