Speculation: What might it cost to re-sign Wild Bill?

[LadyStanley]

Definitely. Negotiated settlement is preferred. Arbitration hearings can be pretty abusive with players feelings and worth down played by team as they present their case.

 

[VanIslander]

I fear the fact that NHL history is littered with players who have had one great season. Will he sustain it?

Don't give him the bank. If he wants $10+ a year at 5+ year term then hold out, and see how the team does without him next fall. Then either sign him or go to arbitration.

 

[Pirate Deadpool]

7 mil and under preferably for 6 years+. I really hope he doesn't think he's going to make 8 or 9 mil a year. If he and his agent think so then gotta do the one year arbitration route.

 

[Aurinko]

7 mil and under preferably for 6 years+. I really hope he doesn't think he's going to make 8 or 9 mil a year. If he and his agent think so then gotta do the one year arbitration route.

They should have signed him first thing in the autumn when we didn't have Marchy for 5M and Tatar for 5,5M. Maybe they offered him like 4-5M back then and the agent just decided to wait a bit...

Now anything under 8M is a steal or Vegas discount.

 

[GoldenKnight]

He does not have a proven track record. I hope we can keep his next contract down to 6x6mil.

 

[Aurinko]

He does not have a proven track record. I hope we can keep his next contract down to 6x6mil.

The risks are huge with WK71, but also when several players with very low track record are getting 5M+ contract, the whole team is starting to look risky.

If I was his agent, I would be very mindful of the Hart/Rocket Richard/Selke kind of play. He's leading a "junk" team to division championship and leading the league in +/- with a huge margin.

If we would *have* to replace him with some other player, which one would you pick? ...Yeah...

 

[willy702]

Thing is with a 70m cap 5m isn't a bad hit. You could average 10 guys at that, 5 guys at 2.5m your veteran depth and then the remaining 8 at around 1m each. Knights won't quite have 10 guys at that 5m level so they have even more room to work with. Its when you get guys at 10m you run into the issues so if they really take a EK68 and pay him market and go after a Tavares then you see the lineup is too top heavy.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Thing is with a 70m cap 5m isn't a bad hit. You could average 10 guys at that, 5 guys at 2.5m your veteran depth and then the remaining 8 at around 1m each. Knights won't quite have 10 guys at that 5m level so they have even more room to work with. Its when you get guys at 10m you run into the issues so if they really take a EK68 and pay him market and go after a Tavares then you see the lineup is too top heavy.

Isn't the cap going to 82 next season?

I think management would maybe only go after one or the other of EK and Tavares. But I won't complain if they manage to get both of them, two cornerstone pieces there. Either way, even one would spell the end of Wild Bill's time here, I think.

EK because I think Wild Bill would probably be used as a big piece in a trade to get him here and we would roll with moving Haula up to his spot and grooming Glass to take Haula's vacated role. I have confidence Glass and Haula would be up to the task and EK would make us better at the back.

Tavares because his presence here would make Wild Bill superfluous to our needs and we might as well cash in on his value at an all time high to better other areas of the team.

 

[mundyc3]

Definitely want to keep Wild Bill. Just hope for under $7 million.

 

[LadyStanley]

Isn't the cap going to 82 next season?

Cap range $75-80M estimated (at GM meetings last month).

 

[Aurinko]

If you would have to choose between Karlsson and Tavares...

...aaand I would still go with Karlsson.

 

[willy702]

If you would have to choose between Karlsson and Tavares...

...aaand I would still go with Karlsson.

Please you and about 5 of your friends would and I bet 3 of them are Swedish Tavares is going to get paid like the elite player he is. Karlsson will get paid like an All-Star, but certainly not an elite player.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Please you and about 5 of your friends would and I bet 3 of them are Swedish Tavares is going to get paid like the elite player he is. Karlsson will get paid like an All-Star, but certainly not an elite player.

JT may get paid like an elite player, but that doesn't mean he still is one. His skills have been declining for a few years. I'm not so sure he's going to live up to whatever $10-11M per year deal he gets from someone. I pray it's not the Knights or the Rangers.

 

[Vegas Mac]

I disagree with the commentary that Wild Bill's shooting percentage will regress and that he'll prove to be a lesser goal scorer. Also I think trying to lowball him will prove to be a mistake if they go that route. Rationale in saying that is he's not a guy who puts the puck at the net in volume, his opportunities have been of high quality and largely self-induced by good positioning and instincts.

The real danger here in the early years is signing guys to the ridiculously long term deals of 8 years. But I think McPhee is too smart for that, and I seem to recall him discussing that as well.

I'd offer him high-end pay along with years (thinkin 5 here) due to his relative youth. He is a young star we need to lock up. Just don't go crazy on years.

 

[Blue Goose]

A young player with no track record having a breakout season on an expiring $1M contract: I'd imagine the player/agent will want to cash in on the success of that one season, while the team will want to see evidence that this is not a fluke. It may not be the most popular opinion here, but I actually wouldn't mind this one going to arbitration. Give him a 2-year deal (for whatever amount) that takes him right to UFA status - if he has another good year, then give him the long extension next summer.

 

[willy702]

I disagree with the commentary that Wild Bill's shooting percentage will regress and that he'll prove to be a lesser goal scorer. Also I think trying to lowball him will prove to be a mistake if they go that route. Rationale in saying that is he's not a guy who puts the puck at the net in volume, his opportunities have been of high quality and largely self-induced by good positioning and instincts.

The real danger here in the early years is signing guys to the ridiculously long term deals of 8 years. But I think McPhee is too smart for that, and I seem to recall him discussing that as well.

I'd offer him high-end pay along with years (thinkin 5 here) due to his relative youth. He is a young star we need to lock up. Just don't go crazy on years.

Yeah sounds great except how come no one else has maintained this kind of % for many years? He's definitely in line for 20-25 goals a year and plays plus defense, but 40 is highly unlikely again because his skill set isnt one that creates a lot of goals without being set up well.

 

[Aurinko]

Yeah sounds great except how come no one else has maintained this kind of % for many years? He's definitely in line for 20-25 goals a year and plays plus defense, but 40 is highly unlikely again because his skill set isnt one that creates a lot of goals without being set up well.

That "plus defense" is the exact reason we can't afford to lose him. That is a quality that most players just don't have.

And he isn't just good at it, he is elite:

And back to your assumption..... I'm not Swedish. I'm Finnish.

Last time a Finn said something good about a Swedish player was exactly never in this universe.

 

[BattleBorn]

I was nervous about Karlsson, but having talked it out with Sabresfan, I'm okay with matching him with Smith and Marchessault's contracts if he'll take it.

$5MM or so for five years.

 

[willy702]

I was nervous about Karlsson, but having talked it out with Sabresfan, I'm okay with matching him with Smith and Marchessault's contracts if he'll take it.

$5MM or so for five years.

Totally agree and while we are at it give the same deal to Perron. We will be set up great for next year whether that includes Tavares or that other Karlsson.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I was nervous about Karlsson, but having talked it out with Sabresfan, I'm okay with matching him with Smith and Marchessault's contracts if he'll take it.

$5MM or so for five years.

But again, after a 43 goal season, his agent will likely push for something more.

 

[BattleBorn]

But again, after a 43 goal season, his agent will likely push for something more.

Then I imagine he'll have to take a "prove it" contract or go to arbitration and wait for UFA.

 

[Vegan Knight]

But again, after a 43 goal season, his agent will likely push for something more.

But again, his agent will also be scared of a short term deal that leaves a ton of actual guaranteed money on the table.

 

[Aurinko]

I'm not a fan of WK, I'm a fan of the insanity that his stats represent.

When was the last time a player got combination like this? Dominant +/-, high goals and shoot%? (and yes +/- is one of the official NHL statistics)

Few got close: Hejduk 2002, Jagr 2005, Vanek 2006, Ovechkin 2009...
The last player as dominant in +/- with similar stats was Lemieux 1992 with 60goals/+55/s%24,1

Now that I got the attention, I might as well give two more reasons that will make him rob the bank:
1. He can attract fans we had no idea existed... the potential is huge and it's all about the turnover
2. If he can become like this in one year, can you really say with 100% certainty that this is his limit?

 

[Vegas Mac]

Yeah sounds great except how come no one else has maintained this kind of % for many years? He's definitely in line for 20-25 goals a year and plays plus defense, but 40 is highly unlikely again because his skill set isnt one that creates a lot of goals without being set up well.

I think he will remain a high percentage shooter after this season. That of course will deviate, but what I don't like is experts acting like the guy's a flash in the pan based on an "unsustainable" shooting percentage.

Go back and look at his goals. There is a reason behind the high percentage nature of his shots. He's had extremely good looks at the net and that did not happen by chance. They came because he's not only skilled but has good instincts and positioning.

Some of the external factors that play into this equation are line mates and the coaching staff. This player is a perfect fit for Coach Gallant and his approach. He also has line mates that have done a great job being on the same page. He's young and ascending. It is important that the team prioritize retaining him.

 

[paragon]

Then I imagine he'll have to take a "prove it" contract or go to arbitration and wait for UFA.

I would be willing to give him term because of his age. Last summer the Wild were in a similar position with Granlund. RFA with 1 year remaining. I think they made a mistake by giving him a 3 year "prove it" contract, because he has proved it and now he's going to be 28 year of old UFA who's worth a big contract. Wild could have signed him to a 8 year deal from age 25-33 (only prime years) with a reasonable cap hit. Instead they will probably have to sign him from 28-36 for a higher cap hit with couple of seasons where he is "old".

Same thing could happen with Karlsson. If you sign him to a short contract and he repeats this year he's going to be worth 9-10M and his contract is going to take him to "old" age. If you sign him to 8 years now it's only going to be prime years (25-33) and you can still sign him to a reasonable cap hit of 6-7M. Salary cap next year is going to be 80M, so 6M is only 7.5%. Relatively that is less than Clarkson got from Toronto. It's less than 32 yo 20 goal scorer Backes signed for with Boston. 6M is nothing these days, in 8 years it's even less when the cap is 110M.

If you gamble now you might get Karlsson signed for long term with a "low" cap hit. This is what Poile does and because of that Predators are a powerhouse. He has signed Josi for 7 years 4M cap hit, Ekholm 6 years 3.75M cap hit, Ellis 5 years 2.5M cap hit, Arvidsson 7 years 4.25M cap hit and Järnkrok 6 years 2M cap hit. They basically have 10M+ extra cap space, because Poile wasn't afraid to commit.