What is Peyton Krebs?

[Tatanka]

He looked his best in a long while playing with Benson and Peterka. He still makes bad decisions with the puck but I too think he still has something.

I find it interesting that after Adams presser, it sounds like he and Donny aren't on the same page when it comes to Krebs. Adams see's Krebs as a long term player but Donny keeps burying him on the 4th line..

The rest of the season is Krebs big audition for landing the 3C roll for the future. That is if Donny actually lets him audition..

If so gives Granato some redeeming value

 

[Ralonzo]

I was chatting with my friend the other day, and we honestly couldn't figure out where Krebs is going. He came in looking like he could pattern his playmaking from the wing like MItch Marner. Had a clutch game or two last season (the outdoor game comes to mind). He popped in and out of the lineup, was put at center, at wing, top-6, bottom 6.

He is now on the PK and seems to be a formidable fore-checker. He gets out there in OT. He's sent out to help close out a game. I did not see any of this coming. Where is his game going, and whom do you liken him to?

I had a real bad thought after a couple wow-giveaways vs Detroit: Pass-first Skinner

 

[Chainshot]

At the moment, what comes to mind is "mostly ineffective". It does seem like not sending him down to work on his game wasn't great at drawing out more of his game.

 

[Tatanka]

At the moment, what comes to mind is "mostly ineffective". It does seem like not sending him down to work on his game wasn't great at drawing out more of his game.

I thought he was effective in the Larry role. No reason he couldn’t do that here with Gus and someone like Erob or better.

 

[BG82]

Peyton Krebs is checking line Center whose value will be more relevent come post season..

I see some Brad Marchand in him with less nose for the next

 

[GrierIsGod123]

I still don't see an Nhl player here. This is one of the biggest areas we can improve in the offseason outside of better seasons from our top two boneheads.

Perhaps Krebs should be looked at as an extra forward for now, but I'd prefer a better player for both Bottom 6 Center spots to be honest. He has almost no trade value, so they might as well keep him around for now. They really should have sent him down when they still could. People keep saying he'll produce if he gets better wingers, and he simply never pops when they do give him the chances. It almost feels like his linemates score despite him.

He's slow, weak and dumb on the ice, but he makes the occasional nice pass. He's a good passer, not a good playmaker if that makes sense. I'm sorry to his believers, but he's just nowhere near good enough yet. He's probably the worst forward on the roster. There's still has a chance he can improve and I'm not completely writing him off, but damn is he a bad NHL'er at this juncture.

 

[Chainshot]

I thought he was effective in the Larry role. No reason he couldn’t do that here with Gus and someone like Erob or better.

I'm looking more in the role up the lineup. When he was centering Okposo and Girgensons, the game was simple - chip, chase, support, cycle, repeat. When he's up the lineup there is way less support in playing that way and he is not doing the same things in terms of putting the puck low and having support to go get it. Part of it is who he plays with, part of it is how he plays when he's not with KO and ZG. The part he can control is what he is doing when not in that matchup/Larry role. I need to see more in those circumstances which is why I go with "mostly ineffective".

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I'm looking more in the role up the lineup. When he was centering Okposo and Girgensons, the game was simple - chip, chase, support, cycle, repeat. When he's up the lineup there is way less support in playing that way and he is not doing the same things in terms of putting the puck low and having support to go get it. Part of it is who he plays with, part of it is how he plays when he's not with KO and ZG. The part he can control is what he is doing when not in that matchup/Larry role. I need to see more in those circumstances which is why I go with "mostly ineffective".

I also noticed that KO and ZG seem to play a lot better without him too. So not only is he not able to elevate when he plays with better players, but he seems to drag almost everyone he plays with down.

He’s starting to look like another Tyson Jost to me. Doesn’t play the same game, but similar career trajectory maybe. I feel like we should pencil him in as the 13th forward next year.

 

[Aladyyn]

Funnily enough the Okposo/Girgensons line has been much worse than the other combinations this season (tiny samples alert of course). His offensive zone play needs work but he's one of our most dynamic carriers through the neutral zone and that's not something that we have an abundance of. If his lines work and he doesn't get a lot of points from it that just means cap savings for us.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

View attachment 835689
Funnily enough the Okposo/Girgensons line has been much worse than the other combinations this season (tiny samples alert of course). His offensive zone play needs work but he's one of our most dynamic carriers through the neutral zone and that's not something that we have an abundance of. If his lines work and he doesn't get a lot of points from it that just means cap savings for us.

Thanks for sharing this data. I think it's fine if he's the 4C and can "win" his matchup. However, I think we need to expect a bit more from a 3C in terms of actual production, while staying on the right side of xGF% as well. It seems he has done quite well in his minutes with the one and only Eric Robinson.

 

[Aladyyn]

Thanks for sharing this data. I think it's fine if he's the 4C and can "win" his matchup. However, I think we need to expect a bit more from a 3C in terms of actual production, while staying on the right side of xGF% as well. It seems he has done quite well in his minutes with the one and only Eric Robinson.

This last stretch of the season should decide whether we can put our faith in him or if we should be on the market for a 3C upgrade.

For comparison here's how he statistically stacks up against 4Cs from good teams in the conference

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

View attachment 835689
Funnily enough the Okposo/Girgensons line has been much worse than the other combinations this season (tiny samples alert of course). His offensive zone play needs work but he's one of our most dynamic carriers through the neutral zone and that's not something that we have an abundance of. If his lines work and he doesn't get a lot of points from it that just means cap savings for us.

These sample sizes tell us nothing.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

If his “goals above shooting talent” is deep in the red, does that mean he’s unlucky? I’ve never really understood that particular stat.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If his “goals above shooting talent” is deep in the red, does that mean he’s unlucky? I’ve never really understood that particular stat.

Yes

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Yes

I guess that means Peterka has been extremely lucky then. His number is among the highest in the league.

 

[Aladyyn]

Not familiar with the metric you're talking about but from the name I assume it's using past performance as the benchmark which I don't think is super indicative when we're talking about a 2nd year player. Going from 12 goals on 14 expected to 21 goals on 17 expected in year 2 is just as likely to be real as it is to be lucky. And from the eye test I would place my bets on Peterka being a + finisher for sure.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I guess that means Peterka has been extremely lucky then. His number is among the highest in the league.

Not familiar with the metric you're talking about but from the name I assume it's using past performance as the benchmark which I don't think is super indicative when we're talking about a 2nd year player. Going from 12 goals on 14 expected to 21 goals on 17 expected in year 2 is just as likely to be real as it is to be lucky. And from the eye test I would place my bets on Peterka being a + finisher for sure.

It's sort of both. It attempts to fit xG against a particular players shooting performance. xG is based upon an average event from that location. There's a pretty big difference between Matthews and Samuelsson generating 1xG.

Peterka has been very lucky by that metric, Krebs has been fairly unlucky.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Not familiar with the metric you're talking about but from the name I assume it's using past performance as the benchmark which I don't think is super indicative when we're talking about a 2nd year player. Going from 12 goals on 14 expected to 21 goals on 17 expected in year 2 is just as likely to be real as it is to be lucky. And from the eye test I would place my bets on Peterka being a + finisher for sure.

It is not factoring-in previous year performance at all. It's an in-season stat.

 

[Chainshot]

It's sort of both. It attempts to fit xG against a particular players shooting performance. xG is based upon an average event from that location. There's a pretty big difference between Matthews and Samuelsson generating 1xG.

Peterka has been very lucky by that metric, Krebs has been fairly unlucky.

It's also got flaws as the Hockey PDOcast points out that shooting from what are usually considered low percentage locations for some is a pure skill play. They mentioned Draisaitl, but think of Peterka with several goals off goalie's helmets and in that are very much a solid scoring chance and rate out terribly due to angle.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's also got flaws as the Hockey PDOcast points out that shooting from what are usually considered low percentage locations for some is a pure skill play. They mentioned Draisaitl, but think of Peterka with several goals off goalie's helmets and in that are very much a solid scoring chance and rate out terribly due to angle.

Germans are known snipers.

 

[joshjull]

View attachment 835689
Funnily enough the Okposo/Girgensons line has been much worse than the other combinations this season (tiny samples alert of course). His offensive zone play needs work but he's one of our most dynamic carriers through the neutral zone and that's not something that we have an abundance of. If his lines work and he doesn't get a lot of points from it that just means cap savings for us.

Its worth pointing out that most if his minutes with Girgs/Okposo were at the start of the season, when Krebs was playing poorly a showed little of the guy we saw end the previous season. Let’s not pretend those two guys were dragging Krebs back.

I’m not sure where you got the idea he’s dynamic at carrying the puck up ice. He’s not that fast and he’s always looking to pass the puck. Rarely do we see him looking to lug the puck up ice from our end to the opposing OZ.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

I also noticed that KO and ZG seem to play a lot better without him too. So not only is he not able to elevate when he plays with better players, but he seems to drag almost everyone he plays with down.

He’s starting to look like another Tyson Jost to me. Doesn’t play the same game, but similar career trajectory maybe. I feel like we should pencil him in as the 13th forward next year.

Yes, I think he's either penciled in for 4th line duty or extra forward. My gut tells me he should be the extra going into the offseason. If you pencil him in, what meaningful change can you make to this forward group?

On the note of Jost, I thought he was quite a bit better with Okposo and Girgs last year. They had very good chemistry as a line. I really think Krebs is just bad at this point and anyone that can't see that has blinders on. If Jost could win draws and be a little better defensively, I'd be a proponent of him for 4th Line Duty. There's really nothing that Krebs does better than him tbh.

 

[Chainshot]

Germans are known snipers.

I had an uncle - German descent mind you, his parents spoke it in the home - who was one in WW2 and had to deal with other snipers. Scary stuff.

Yes, I think he's either penciled in for 4th line duty or extra forward. My gut tells me he should be the extra going into the offseason. If you pencil him in, what meaningful change can you make to this forward group?

On the note of Jost, I thought he was quite a bit better with Okposo and Girgs last year. They had very good chemistry as a line. I really think Krebs is just bad at this point and anyone that can't see that has blinders on. If Jost could win draws and be a little better defensively, I'd be a proponent of him for 4th Line Duty. There's really nothing that Krebs does better than him tbh.

This year's Jost isn't even worth being the 13 next year. And his faceoff "ability" is shockingly regular at or below 40%. I'd rather they give him a pat on the ass and show him the door. When he was close to the fright of being waived last year, there was inside drive and contact to his game. That was gone to start this season and has not been nearly as frequent since his recall either. Get someone hungrier, bigger, or with an actual talent other than being scared and being Christie's friend.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

It's also got flaws as the Hockey PDOcast points out that shooting from what are usually considered low percentage locations for some is a pure skill play. They mentioned Draisaitl, but think of Peterka with several goals off goalie's helmets and in that are very much a solid scoring chance and rate out terribly due to angle.

Draisaitl has a top 10 shooting talent above average. So I guess the model agrees with them?

I think it has flaws too, it's a positive feedback loop, and it doesn't account well for players who aren't trying to score.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Draisaitl has a top 10 shooting talent above average. So I guess the model agrees with them?

I think it has flaws too, it's a positive feedback loop, and it doesn't account well for players who aren't trying to score.

Agreed. These stats aren't intended to be looked at individually, obviously. You need to take many of them together to paint a full picture.