What is Jake Gardiner??

what is Jake Gardiner?


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Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Gardiner is top 3 in the league in give-aways and that is both troublesome and extremely frustrating to watch game in and game out.

I'd certainly not hesitate to deal him and try and fix the RHD side of things with Rielly and Dermott manning the #1 and #2 LHD spots going forward.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
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Gardiner is top 3 in the league in give-aways and that is both troublesome and extremely frustrating to watch game in and game out.

I'd certainly not hesitate to deal him and try and fix the RHD side of things with Rielly and Dermott manning the #1 and #2 LHD spots going forward.
Here:
Well, for anyone reading, here's the list of the defenders with the most giveaways since the lockout:

Brent Burns
Zdeno Chara
Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Andrei Markov
Mike Green
Brent Seabrook
Dion Phaneuf
Duncan Keith
Keith Yandle
PK Subban

Here's a list of defenders with the least amount of giveaways since the lockout, having played a similar amount of games to the above:

Stephane Robidas
Tim Gleason
Marc Methot
Roman Polak
Dennis Seidenberg
Alex Pietrangelo (Quite the outlier, very cool)
Jan Hejda
Fedor Tyutin
Anton Strålman
Zbynek Michalek
Mark Stuart
Scott Hannan

If you pick a random top giveaway defender during these years, you have an 11/11 chance of picking an all-star. It's not a good stat. Giveaways are bad. Defenders who make egregious giveaways are worse. The giveaway stat doesn't identify these.
Him being far up in the giveaway stat is not troublesome in the slightest. Some parts of his game continues to be, perhaps.
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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He gives the puck away too much.

That's not really debatable, regardless of how a specific stat is viewed.

Good lord, I'm not debating that.

My commentary on Gardiner from earlier in this thread was: dumb too often, smart too seldom.

Just don't use giveaway stats to compare Gardiner to Burns to Karlsson. It's literally a useless exercise.
 

Hockey Talker29

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Oct 10, 2003
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Stop what, having a discussion?

There are plenty of extensive research done on giveaways that point to that exact conclusion. What you said doesn't refute that. For one, I'm talking individual actions while you are talking shot metrics. Not the same. And while there are D-men who plays as much as him who have less giveaways, at large the metric has a high correlation with how much the defender handles the puck. Almost all D-men with lots of giveaways are puck-moving d-men. Almost all d-men with very few giveaways are very limited d-men who don't handle the puck. That's the main thing the stat says. If you look at who has the most giveaways since the lockout, it's all high-end d-men.

I'm not saying you are wrong about Gardiner. That the stat is bad has nothing to do with him.

A big issue with the giveaway stat is that it doesn't include clearing it off the boards, and ultimately, to the other team.

If that was included, the stat would make a lot more sense, and the names at the top wouldn't include all of the best defensemen in the world.
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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Toronto/St. John's
A big issue with the giveaway stat is that it doesn't include clearing it off the boards, and ultimately, to the other team.

If that was included, the stat would make a lot more sense, and the names at the top wouldn't include all of the best defensemen in the world.

How do you know this to be the case?

A statskeeper in one arena may consider that a giveaway. while a statskeeper in another arena may not.
 

Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
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GTA or the UK
Good lord, I'm not debating that.

My commentary on Gardiner from earlier in this thread was: dumb too often, smart too seldom.

Just don't use giveaway stats to compare Gardiner to Burns to Karlsson. It's literally a useless exercise.

Then get off the stat and move on. I'm sure I told you this last night. Get over it, bud.
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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And you are obseessed with carrying it on, a solid 13 hours after I told you let's be done with it LOL.

So this will be my last response. Predictably, it probably won't be yours.

You don't get to decide that, bud.

Obsessed? You're being defensive because you got called out for being wrong. And now you're shifting goal posts.

A good characteristic to have is the ability to say "Hey, I never thought of it that way. Good point." You clearly lack this characteristic. Instead you decided to take my point the wrong way numerous times and be bull-headed about it.

It's not about having the last word. It's about not being dismissive of valid points that are being made.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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He's definitely atleast a good number 2. He has been underrated by many over the past 2 seasons. He is better than Morgan Rielly.
 
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Mar 14, 2011
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Gardiner
HDCA/60(high danger chances against)- 10.06
HDCF% (similar to corsi but only taking high danger shots for and against into account)- 54.33%
GA/60- 2.17
xGA/60- 2.42
Rel xGA/60- (-.26) (lower the better)
OZ/DZ/NZ- 31.38/33.48/35.14

Zaitsev

HDCA/60- 11.56
HDCF%- 50.56%
GA/60- 2.58
xGA/60- 2.65
Rel xGA/60- .12
OZ/DZ/NZ- 28.5/33.95/37.55

Rielly
HDCA/60- 12.51
HDCF%- 49.18
GA/60- 2.79
xGA/60- 2.83
Rel xGA/60- .33
OZ/DZ/NZ- 28.6/35.53/35.87

Now I realize quality of competition makes a huge difference but I dont really know any stat that accurately measures QoC at the moment, corsica's "xGF%QoC" did look promising at first but it still vastly underestimates the difference between the workload of each defenceman. Now, I highlighted the GA/60 stat because it is perhaps the most relatable to the "eye test," and by the looks of it, Gardiner seems to be doing far better compare to the other 2, highly touted defenceman on the Leafs. Taking these + Gardiner's great offensive numbers these past 2 years into account, I would say his arguably a #2 Defenceman in the league and the the title of "best defenceman on the Leafs" is still up for grabs between him and Rielly.
 
Mar 14, 2011
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40-50pt #3 offensive dman
Out of the Leafs top 4 Defenceman (Hainsey, Rielly and Zaitsev) Gardiner has the lowest GA/60 (by quite a margin too), HDCA/60 (high danger shots against), xGA/60 and shots against per 60. If he doesn't count as a 2 way Dman then no one in the Leafs roster is.
 
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Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,759
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No he wants to show you the truth. Stop being biased
You should read his post again then because he's clearly talking about giveaways. Burns regularly leads the league in those and Karlsson is usually up there as well, even if he is down this year.

If you want to change the discussion to who is better, that's fine, but you can't discount a player based on a single criteria like he did while ignoring it for others.

That's basically the definition of bias btw
 

ITM

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe...
Jan 26, 2012
4,551
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Gardiner is top 3 in the league in give-aways and that is both troublesome and extremely frustrating to watch game in and game out.

I'd certainly not hesitate to deal him and try and fix the RHD side of things with Rielly and Dermott manning the #1 and #2 LHD spots going forward.

Big games can be lost in moments where poor decision making turns the puck over, certainly. But...Gardiner is also capable of pulling off exceptional plays in the face of immense pressure. And since the Boston series we lost, I've been a huge fan of that x-factor that he brings and brought. With Andersen playing as he has, I'm fine with Gardiner continuing being that gambler from the back end. Stick him with Hainsey and give him the green light. We know what his positive and negative attributes are, and every year an insistent group uses the same misapplied apprehension of wanting Gardiner to improve his defensive game while applauding Reilly for his, yet ignoring little things like the +12 that Gardiner has over Reilly this season and the +44 he had over Reilly the season before.

Gardiner might look like the lesser defenceman (for reasons I don't understand), I suspect, because of the style of play he leans towards and perhaps a general affect of giving less of an effort than we believe he can. But the end result seems to portray a much more valuable defenceman than he gets credit for.

Jake Gardiner, not Morgan Reilly, has been our best defenceman over the last two seasons. He's been our best playoffs performer from the backend since he arrived. He's not a true number one, but he's solid number two.

Morgan Reilly feels at times like our identity politics poster child: We have to praise him because there's an insistent expectation to do so given his advertised tag and draft position. But it's Jake Gardiner, that's demonstrated - albeit in a frustrating, confusing fashion at times - that he's our best player on defense. And from what I've gleaned from Travis Dermott - points aside - it's Dermott, not Reilly, that's beginning to look more and more as though he may emerge as our most important player on defense.

This to say, if I'm Lou (and there's a thread to that effect where I intimated a big move I'd make were I the Leafs GM) and if D-starved Vancouver came looking for a "number one D", I'd offer the Vancouver-born Reilly in a heartbeat if it meant Bo Horvat was headed to Toronto. I'd continue to roll with Gardiner, Dermott and Zaitsev and supplement Reilly's departure with a move for a quality RHD with appropriate term and salary, like Justin Braun whom I mentioned in the Lou thread. And we could further supplement with a signing or allow our depth (e.g. Borgman, Carrick, Holl) to offset the need until next season when Doughty becomes available or quality secondary options. Liljegren could be ready, etc, etc...

...but Jake Gardiner is much more valuable than he is given credit for.
 
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IPS

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Sep 28, 2017
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Top 30-40 defensemen in the league. He plays top pairing minutes, tough minutes, elite shot suppressor, is productive 5 on 5, generates shots, etc. Yall are spoiled brats.
Gardiner's a prime example of how stats will never, ever tell the whole story.
 
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Skin Tape Session

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Oct 7, 2017
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Big games can be lost in moments where poor decision making turns the puck over, certainly. But...Gardiner is also capable of pulling off exceptional plays in the face of immense pressure. And since the Boston series we lost, I've been a huge fan of that x-factor that he brings and brought. With Andersen playing as he has, I'm fine with Gardiner continuing being that gambler from the back end. Stick him with Hainsey and give him the green light. We know what his positive and negative attributes are, and every year an insistent group uses the same misapplied apprehension of wanting Gardiner to improve his defensive game while applauding Reilly for his, yet ignoring little things like the +12 that Gardiner has over Reilly this season and the +44 he had over Reilly the season before.

Gardiner might look like the lesser defenceman (for reasons I don't understand), I suspect, because of the style of play he leans towards and perhaps a general affect of giving less of an effort than we believe he can. But the end result seems to portray a much more valuable defenceman than he gets credit for.

Jake Gardiner, not Morgan Reilly, has been our best defenceman over the last two seasons. He's been our best playoffs performer from the backend since he arrived. He's not a true number one, but he's solid number two.

Morgan Reilly feels at times like our identity politics poster child: We have to praise him because there's an insistent expectation to do so given his advertised tag and draft position. But it's Jake Gardiner, that's demonstrated - albeit in a frustrating, confusing fashion at times - that he's our best player on defense. And from what I've gleaned from Travis Dermott - points aside - it's Dermott, not Reilly, that's beginning to look more and more as though he may emerge as our most important player on defense.

This to say, if I'm Lou (and there's a thread to that effect where I intimated a big move I'd make were I the Leafs GM) and if D-starved Vancouver came looking for a "number one D", I'd offer the Vancouver-born Reilly in a heartbeat if it meant Bo Horvat was headed to Toronto. I'd continue to roll with Gardiner, Dermott and Zaitsev and supplement Reilly's departure with a move for a quality RHD with appropriate term and salary, like Justin Braun whom I mentioned in the Lou thread. And we could further supplement with a signing or allow our depth (e.g. Borgman, Carrick, Holl) to offset the need until next season when Doughty becomes available or quality secondary options. Liljegren could be ready, etc, etc...

...but Jake Gardiner is much more valuable than he is given credit for.


You're right about Jake and Wrong about Morgan. Morgan is 23. He is a num 1 d. The only way I trade him is for a num 1 center. That's what Num 1 D go for. Since we have a franchise center, and a num 1 center playing right wing as well as a num 2 center giving us 30 goals I don't want to move him. No need to move him. We got incredibly lucky he slipped to five. In a re draft he may go num 1. Then we got lucky we he signed for 5mil. In no scenario Do I feel comfortable Moving Morgan . I can't imagine how good he will be in three years.
 
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Ziggdiezan

Registered User
Apr 10, 2015
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How many #1 D play the 4th most minutes, TOI, out of their top 6?
Where did you get that from?

Just looked and Rielly as an ATOI of 21:44, Hainsey 21:53, Gardiner 22:30 and Zaitsev 22:35.

At even strength:
Rielly 18.1 minutes
Hainsey 17.55 minutes
Gardiner 19.8 minutes
Zaitsev 19.02 minutes
 

Buds17

Registered User
Nov 29, 2015
8,245
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How many #1 D play the 4th most minutes, TOI, out of their top 6?

Fair point, but there's slightly less than a minute of (average) ice time going from Zaitsev (#1) to Rielly (#4). Rielly is also the youngest of our top 4 D.
 

mulefarm

Registered User
Oct 9, 2011
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I believe 21:44 is the lowest of the top 4? Just saying a #1 usually plays quite a bit more and should lead their team TOI. Just seems odd for a #1.
 

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