Speculation: Werenski to Detroit, One Way or Another?

[Daximus]

3-10 in 2015 has 2 elite star wingers, 2 top-pairing defenceman (one you clearly covet), and the rest are competent top 9 or top 4 defenders. I think you are dramatically overestimating the hit rates of draft picks. 2015 at this point had multiple people in the 3-10 range making a sizable impact on the NHL. Honestly, look at what people thought of Hanifin, Zacha and Strome in spring of 2017. You are dramatically overestimating the cumulative odds of multiple of these guys hitting to the extent you get better then 2 star wingers and 2 top pairing defencemen who are still 24 or younger.

Yeah it's pretty unlikely that all of Byram, Seider and Broberg top out as top 4 defencemen. Then you need at least two of Dach, Turcotte, Cozens, and Zegras to be better than Marner/Rantanen. And all of the entire 3-10 range to at the very least be top 9 forwards and top 4 defencemen to even have a chance to match 2015. Strome, Zacha, Meier are at the very least middle 6 players.

Just playing the odds it's likely at least 1 player busts in that 3-10 range in 2019.

 

[Daximus]

It's a high one for sure, but I see Dach and Zegras both as #1Cs down the road. As good as Rantanen/Marner? Maybe not, but I also think that Turcotte and Cozens end up better than the likes of Strome and Meier.

Really the only guys in the 3-10 range who haven't met or exceeded expectations are Broberg and maybe Podkolzin.

It'd actually be a fun poll. I think you'd get a good balance of people who bet on the sure thing and people who bet on the potential.

Like I said above. It's possible but I wouldn't bet on it. 2015 is a pretty impressive draft. Literally every single player outside of Senyshyn in the first round is at the very least a depth option for their respective NHL team. Even 2003 couldn't claim that 6 years in. The 3-10 range in that draft might not be amazing but it's damn impressive that there really isn't a single absolute bust in that range. Because just by the odds there will usually be at least 1.

Dach and Zegras could very well become 1C's. Which would bring it closer but to this point neither have really proven anything in the NHL. I wouldn't write of the possibility completely but I wouldn't bet for it.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yeah it's pretty unlikely that all of Byram, Seider and Broberg top out as top 4 defencemen. Then you need at least two of Dach, Turcotte, Cozens, and Zegras to be better than Marner/Rantanen. And all of the entire 3-10 range to at the very least be top 9 forwards and top 4 defencemen to even have a chance to match 2015. Strome, Zacha, Meier are at the very least middle 6 players.

Just playing the odds it's likely at least 1 player busts in that 3-10 range in 2019.

Like I said above. It's possible but I wouldn't bet on it. 2015 is a pretty impressive draft. Literally every single player outside of Senyshyn in the first round is at the very least a depth option for their respective NHL team. Even 2003 couldn't claim that 6 years in. The 3-10 range in that draft might not be amazing but it's damn impressive that there really isn't a single absolute bust in that range. Because just by the odds there will usually be at least 1.

Dach and Zegras could very well become 1C's. Which would bring it closer but to this point neither have really proven anything in the NHL. I wouldn't write of the possibility completely but I wouldn't bet for it.

I'm gonna make a poll on it if you're interested in continuing the conversation.

I actually expect 2015 to beat 2019 but it's a fun discussion. I just don't want to de-rail this thread further with it. (As if this thread hasn't already been de-railed enough...)

 

[Breakers]

I can fully see it happening

Playing in front of the Children of Yost

He may be from the area but those college experiences, you see countless pro's live in the city they played college hockey in.
new NHL and controlling your destiny.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

I'm pissed at him because he's retreading old speculation at a particularly sensitive time just for clicks. He does this shit all the g-ddamn time, but right now it's an especially sensitive issue for myself and my fanbase.

I'm also none too pleased with those folks taken in by it and who think his latest rebloviation is "new reporting", but that's an aside and I'm trying to restrain myself on that one, because arguably they can't help themselves; it's more his fault than theirs.

May I ask why it is a particularly sensitive time for you and your fanbase? Was there some bad news?

 

[93LEAFS]

I can fully see it happening

Playing in front of the Children of Yost

He may be from the area but those college experiences, you see countless pro's live in the city they played college hockey in.
new NHL and controlling your destiny.

Which guys are there? Seems all the Boston college UFA's go to NYC (Hayes, Vesey, and Fox forcing his way there).

I know of Vanek. Suter and Parise both went back to the mid-west (and Parise's case home) but were Wisc and NoDak guys. McAvoy was drafted by Boston. Same with Larkin to Detroit. Trouba forced his way to NYC. Not saying your wrong, because I know you follow college hockey much closers than I do. I'm just struggling to think of prominent examples with a player that is this level of a UFA if he reaches it.

 

[Viqsi]

May I ask why it is a particularly sensitive time for you and your fanbase? Was there some bad news?

Nash injured and out for the regular season, Jenner injured and out for the season, Werenski injured and out for the season, playoffs completely out of reach, standard stress of being lowballed by ambitious buyers with this time of year, headline replacement for PLD having the worst season of his career, winningest coach in team history likely on his way out with folks mocking him and us throughout, and oh yeah people are still on the PLD thing as more "proof" that we can't keep anybody as is demonstrated by regular speculation/discount poaching attempts for guys like Jones and Bjorkstrand and now Werenski so that whole perpetual thing about whether or not this team is viable or relevant or deserves to exist or whatnot just keeps hovering around.

 

[Beezeral]

Add Barkov in '22 UFA & we just need to find a 1G + #4 (LD) which should be doable internally.

Been spending too much time on NHL 21. There is absolutely no chance Barkov signs with Detroit as a UFA. They’d be at or near the bottom of his list with no chance to improve.

 

[Breakers]

Which guys are there? Seems all the Boston college UFA's go to NYC (Hayes, Vesey, and Fox forcing his way there).

I know of Vanek. Suter and Parise both went back to the mid-west (and Parise's case home) but were Wisc and NoDak guys. McAvoy was drafted by Boston. Same with Larkin to Detroit. Trouba forced his way to NYC. Not saying your wrong, because I know you follow college hockey much closers than I do. I'm just struggling to think of prominent examples with a player that is this level of a UFA if he reaches it.

Stastny Lives in Denver
Bozak lived in denver all through toronto years until he got married to molly but still keeps the home around cherry creek
Colborne still lives in denver after retirement
Eichel still has an apartment in Boston and trains there and lives there in the offseason but he's from NH
Kyle Connor has a house in that lake area outside of detroit where all the pros live forget the name, he went to Michigan
Justin Holl lives on lake Minetonka went to school in minny
Backes lives in Minnesota went to state

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Been spending too much time on NHL 21. There is absolutely no chance Barkov signs with Detroit as a UFA. They’d be at or near the bottom of his list with no chance to improve.

He's obviously being ridiculous and it's not a likely scenario at all, but alleging Detroit would be at or near the bottom of Barkov's list is a little bit overboard itself.

Detroit + Barkov in 22-23 is a pretty good team trending toward competitive in the future years. Several teams wont be able to afford him, and then there's teams like PIT and SJS whose futures look pretty bleak.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Been spending too much time on NHL 21. There is absolutely no chance Barkov signs with Detroit as a UFA. They’d be at or near the bottom of his list with no chance to improve.

I haven't played video games since my college years, 30 yrs ago, lol.

You can't say "absolutely no chance etc." & have it be a factual statement anymore than I can say he will sign with DET. By July '22 (or by start of '21 season) our roster will be improved...

adding: Seider, Raymond, Berggren, Veleno

+full time roles for Rasmussen, Lindstrom

+possibly Smith, Svechnikov & Cholowski, depending on ED.

+ UFA top4 LD & possibly sign/trade for 2C via (Mantha)

re: 2C, Fabbri has scored at 50pt. pace, + player on a lottery team & has 5 GWG! He's a placeholder for Larkin, who will bump down to 2C when Barkov signs in DET, $10.5 x 7yrs, NTC 1st 5 yrs, limited NTC last 2. See, anyone can proclaim something, freedom of speech.

 

[93LEAFS]

Stastny Lives in Denver
Bozak lived in denver all through toronto years until he got married to molly but still keeps the home around cherry creek
Colborne still lives in denver after retirement
Eichel still has an apartment in Boston and trains there in the offseason but he's from NH
Kyle Connor has a house in that lake area outside of detroit where all the pros live for get the name
Justin Holl lives on lake Minetonka
Backes lives in Minnesota

Oh, I thought you meant went back during their career.

I think Eichel is from Lowell, not New Hampshire.

Where guys off-season generally has two factors (sometimes a third). One, most of them like to be on cottages, the amount of Ontario kids who summer in Toronto/Muskoka is astonishing (McDavid, Scheifele, Hall, Skinner, Seguin, Subban, Stamkos, etc). The second is that guys want to be near-dedicated training facilities and accessible ice. So, there are a few hubs guys tend to live in. In Canada the two biggest hubs are Toronto/Muskoka, and out-west Kelowna or Van, Sid and Nate have set up a situation in Halifax. A ton of Americans live in either the Boston area or Minnesota (I believe JVR got a place there). Some summer where they either are from/give tax benefits (Matthews, and previously Kessel). Most of the top D1 schools, especially ones with top D1 football teams (Michigan being the most notable example) give easy access to elite strength training facilities.

When I was at school, I know Doughty and Couture who are from London had a place there, and Cory Perry has a place there.

 

[Beezeral]

Detroit + Barkov in 22-23 is a pretty good team trending toward competitive in the future years.

See. That’s exactly it. He’d leave a team that is already competitive and has cap space to improve, for a team that even with him would still be multiple pieces away. It makes absolutely no logical sense. If Barkov were to leave the panthers, and it’s absolutely possible he does, it’s for a situation where he can win a cup immediately. Not a team that is in the middle of a complete rebuild.

You can't say "absolutely no chance etc." & have it be a factual statement anymore than I can say he will sign with DET.

It is absolutely factual that there are at least a dozen teams in the NHL that can make a much more compelling argument to sign Barkov over Detroit, and that doesn’t even include his current team which is currently way better positioned for both the short and long term.

 

[MVPete96]

good god this thread is aids. I feel for CBJ fans that your best players have requested trades lately. Columbus is a cool city and I know jacket fans are passionate.

at the same time, wings fans have been going through a painful rebuild and have the right to get excited at the thought of potentially getting a stud like werenski.

now let’s get to the trade. If a deal were to get done I think it would be something like the marty st. louis trade to NYR where he forced the trade and would only go to one team. this obviously hurts werenski’s value so I’d be willing to offer mantha and hronek as my best offer.

 

[MVPete96]

Been spending too much time on NHL 21. There is absolutely no chance Barkov signs with Detroit as a UFA. They’d be at or near the bottom of his list with no chance to improve.

If he wants to sign with a contender for a deal then sure I agree with you. If he wants to sign with a team who can offer him $10 mil in a original 6 hockey market then I think the wings will definitely be in the mix. the flat cap is going to be really tough on teams and the wings will have a pretty open cap

 

[WingsMJN2965]

See. That’s exactly it. He’d leave a team that is already competitive and has cap space to improve, for a team that even with him would still be multiple pieces away. It makes absolutely no logical sense. If Barkov were to leave the panthers, and it’s absolutely possible he does, it’s for a situation where he can win a cup immediately. Not a team that is in the middle of a complete rebuild.

It is absolutely factual that there are at least a dozen teams in the NHL that can make a much more compelling argument to sign Barkov over Detroit, and that doesn’t even include his current team which is currently way better positioned for both the short and long term.

How many pieces would they really be missing at that point lol.

They'd be running a center duo of Barkov and Larkin with Mantha, Bertuzzi, Raymond, Zadina, and Fabbri to choose from as wingers. (And maybe Berggren) They'd have Seider and Hronek on RHD, and are likely adding a LHD with pick #1-#7 in the 2021 draft. Without any trades or signings, (Other than Barkov, as that's the hypothetical we're considering here) you're looking at a Top 9 of:

Mantha - Barkov - Raymond
Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
Rasmussen - Veleno - Berggren

Defense is a little more questionable, but your top 4 includes Seider and Hronek, and could very well include Albert Johansson and one of Power/Edvinsson/Hughes.

That's not a bad group at all. Again, I agree that it's unlikely and I don't really see why he'd want out of Florida, but I don't think if he went to UFA that Detroit would be at the bottom of his considerations.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

good god this thread is aids. I feel for CBJ fans that your best players have requested trades lately. Columbus is a cool city and I know jacket fans are passionate.

at the same time, wings fans have been going through a painful rebuild and have the right to get excited at the thought of potentially getting a stud like werenski.

now let’s get to the trade. If a deal were to get done I think it would be something like the marty st. louis trade to NYR where he forced the trade and would only go to one team. this obviously hurts werenski’s value so I’d be willing to offer mantha and hronek as my best offer.

I think Trouba is the obvious comparison. Can't really see any parallel in Marty considering he was a 38 year old forward.

Honestly, I can't think of anybody I'd want in the 2021 draft bad enough that I wouldn't consider offering up our 1st for Werenski, but that's more of a reflection on the talent level of this draft. FWIW, I don't think there's a chance in hell Detroit would make a play for Werenski before the 2021 draft, so it likely doesn't matter.

 

[Beezeral]

If he wants to sign with a team who can offer him $10 mil in a original 6 hockey market then

If this is the best argument you can come up with Boston is going to be walking into that offseason with a ton of cap space and a deeper roster.

Mantha - Barkov - Raymond
Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
Rasmussen - Veleno - Berggren

This doesn’t even top what the panthers currently roll out. The first hurdle any team will have to jump to get Barkov is to be more attractive than the panthers. Unless something massive changes in a very short time, the wings won’t be able to cross that hurdle. Barkov to the wings is a pipe dream.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

This doesn’t even top what the panthers currently roll out. The first hurdle any team will have to jump to get Barkov is to be more attractive than the panthers. Unless something massive changes in a very short time, the wings won’t be able to cross that hurdle. Barkov to the wings is a pipe dream.

I know I'm betting on potential a little bit but uh...

 

[Beezeral]

I know I'm betting on potential a little bit but uh...

You are betting a ton on potential. There’s no huberdeau in that group. Nor an Ekblad. You have guys who you hope might get there, but nobody who is there or is close to getting there.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

You are betting a ton on potential. There’s no huberdeau in that group. Nor an Ekblad. You have guys who you hope might get there, but nobody who is there or is close to getting there.

Fair, there isn't.

... But there's also Wennberg matching up to Larkin, and outside Huberdeau, I'd take Detroit's winger group over Florida's.

 

[Beezeral]

Fair, there isn't.

... But there's also Wennberg matching up to Larkin, and outside Huberdeau, I'd take Detroit's winger group over Florida's.

There isn’t a winger on Detroit’s roster playing as well as Carter Verhaeghe. And if you are going to use prospects, the panthers have Owen Tippett and Denisenko as 1st round wing prospects. Add in that Anton Lundell was leading Liiga in points at 19 before his team got covid. If you are going to use prospects to push the wings, I’ll do the same.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

There isn’t a winger on Detroit’s roster playing as well as Carter verhaghe. And if you are going to use prospects, the panthers have Owen Tippett and Denisenko as 1st round wing prospects. Add in that Anton Lundell was leading Liiga in points at 19 before his team got covid. If you are going to use prospects to push the wings, I’ll do the same.

Let's be realistic here... You really don't think Mantha or Bertuzzi outperform Verhaghe on a line with Barkov under Q's system? Lol.

Fair point on Lundell. I'll take Raymond over Lundell though, and Zadina over Tippett/Denisenko.

 

[ole ole]

Seider, Hronek, Zadina, Raymond, & to a lesser degree Berggren & Veleno are staying. If ZW wants to be a Red Wing (we've heard this for ~5yrs now), he will be. He can go to UFA, refuse to sign any offers from the acquiring team. All of this lowers Jarmo's asking price also, as teams don't want to pay a lot in a trade for ~1-2yrs of ZW, just to watch him bolt. 99% sure he's on the Red Wings 2023.

So basically the only way ZW becomes a Wing is if he decides to only go their as a FA because you have nothing left to offer up in a trade. HAVE A GOOD WAIT.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

So basically the only way ZW becomes a Wing is if he decides to only go their as a FA because you have nothing left to offer up in a trade. HAVE A GOOD WAIT.

Meh, NYR paid a pretty minimal price for Trouba.

But his idea that Detroit wouldn't let go of Berggren or Veleno to get Werenski is pretty laughable, yeah.