NFL GDT: Week 16

[hatterson]

First down Incompete pass. 2nd down run cmc but are short this hit 2 minutes. 3rd down is a long developing play ending in a sack. For sure won’t get ball back until under 1 minute and no timeouts left. Have a play for 4th and 1 ready but then it’s 4th and 15 and thus Shanny is scrambling.

Either you let some time come off the clock to get the right play (under 40 seconds) otherwise Bal drains the full 40 when they have the ball. At that point all you are doing is saving 10-12 seconds due to the saack

The sack on third down happened at ~1:55 and they clearly didn’t have a 4th and 12 or whatever play lined up. That’s fine, you’re assuming the QB doesn’t give up a sack.

The issue is it took them 30 seconds to get the play in and get lined up. The difference between calling the TO after the sack and calling it after a Baltimore run would have been 10 seconds. Those 10 seconds are absolutely worth making sure everyone is properly ready for 4th down and good to go.

The fact that they false started meant they lost that time anyway, but that’s hindsight so doesn’t really count. In that situation, seeing the sack, the TO there would have been the expected difference in the best case of getting the ball back with 40 second left (using it) and 50 seconds left (not using it). Those 10 seconds are 100% worth not having your backup QB trying to scramble around with the clock running on 4th and goal.

 

[John Price]

 

[StreetHawk]

The sack on third down happened at ~1:55 and they clearly didn’t have a 4th and 12 or whatever play lined up. That’s fine, you’re assuming the QB doesn’t give up a sack.

The issue is it took them 30 seconds to get the play in and get lined up. The difference between calling the TO after the sack and calling it after a Baltimore run would have been 10 seconds. Those 10 seconds are absolutely worth making sure everyone is properly ready for 4th down and good to go.

The fact that they false started meant they lost that time anyway, but that’s hindsight so doesn’t really count. In that situation, seeing the sack, the TO there would have been the expected difference in the best case of getting the ball back with 40 second left (using it) and 50 seconds left (not using it). Those 10 seconds are 100% worth not having your backup QB trying to scramble around with the clock running on 4th and goal.

From 1:55 left, when bal gets the ball they run 3 plays at 5 seconds per play plus the punt. Plus if you are down to 2 TO another 40 seconds run off. Easily that is a full minute off the clock.
That’s the math when down a TO under 2 minutes. After a 12 yard sack really have no choice but to call TO. Thus best case you need to go 75 yards or so in like 45-47 seconds.

Horrific 3rd down call. Either it’s there but if not the QB is then hitting the check down or running with it to the sidelines or just throwing it away. They came out of the 2 minute warning with that call. Had time to remind darnold what to do.

 

[Terry Yake]

lamar is 21-1 in his career against NFC teams

 

[TheGreenTBer]

lamar is 21-1 in his career against NFC teams

"Doesn't matter cause he can't throw"
- Morons

 

[GKJ]

lamar is 21-1 in his career against NFC teams

only lost one other to the spread

 

[Blitzkrug]

Baltimore can wrap up the #1 seed with a win Sunday against Miami.

I fully expect them to. If you look that good against the Niners, you can beat anybody.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

1. Ravens
2. 49ers
3. Bills
4. Fins
5. Boys
6. Eagles
7. Lions
8. Chiefs

 

[BB88]

This is what an MVP looks like

Yet it’s basically Lamars, no other can compete for it anymore

 

[TheAngryHank]

Yet it’s basically Lamars, no other can compete for it anymore

He did nothing in the first half.. given short fields..it was a Bmore win but that game didn't scream MVP. It's just all the other front runners have faded but 1.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Of course it's the same neanderthals coming out against Lamar because they're stuck in 1985 with their statuesque, tall QBs who only throw the ball.

MVP will be between Lamar and Tua.

The Niners in the running just got dropped after last night, Allen in my opinion hasn't been consistently good enough this season to warrant it.

Lamar's biggest problem is his passing numbers aren't as gaudy as the Tuas, Allens or even Mahomes of the world;

Tua: 70% completion, 4,214 yards, 26 TD/10 INT, 6.3 YPA, 9.3 YPC
Lamar: 63% completion, 3,357 yards, 19 TD/7 INT, 7.1 YPA, 12.1 YPC

Lamar obviously makes up for this with the almost 800 yards and counting he has in the rushing column along with 5 TDs.

If you frame it the correct way, as i hope most of the voters will, it suddenly looks way closer;

Tua: 4,267 total yards (Absolute ANIMAL running the ball), 26 total TDs/14 total turnovers (lost 4 fumbles)
Lamar: 4,143 total yards, 24 total TDs/14 total turnovers (7 fumbles lost)

the fumbles stat makes sense as well given Lamar is more active as a runner and thus exposes himself to the potential to fumble it more.

Roster construction around each guy should be considered. Tua has probably the best WR duo in Football in Tyreek and Waddle alongside a potent running game led by Mostert. Lamar had his best target in Mark Andrews go down after 10 games while having to make do with an (admittedly) good rookie in Zay Flowers and an old ass OBJ. the Ravens running game is also mostly him and Gus Edwards.

I assume the people saying "LaMar DoEsN't DeSeRvE iT" are people who either don't understand the quarterbacks of today are a tad different than the MVP winners of the past or too stupid to do basic math.

Tua wins it if the voters decide that Lamar's value as a passer and runner are for some reason not equal value instead of grading all of his stats as just a whole body of work. Lamar wins if anybody voting does the simple math i did here.

I personally don't know which way i lean. The Dolphins bias is a bit strong obviously for me but i wouldn't be surprised at all, or upset for that matter if Lamar did win MVP.

He did nothing in the first half.. given short fields..it was a Bmore win but that game didn't scream MVP. It's just all the other front runners have faded but 1.

So one game suddenly devalues his MVP case? What about the other 14 he played in?

 

[BB88]

He did nothing in the first half.. given short fields..it was a Bmore win but that game didn't scream MVP. It's just all the other front runners have faded but 1.

McCaffrey has been a monster all year.

& now by odds Lamar is the clear run away favourite.

It’s absolutely brutal that a non QB can’t win in a year where zero QB’s have dominated

 

[GKJ]

Almost like the award is dumb and irrelevant. The debate around it every year, the juice is never worth the squeeze.

The award has consistently went to a player whose team gets the bye, we’ve only had one bye per conference for a few years, but the two teams getting them went out and one of the candidates came out clearly ahead on the field of the team that everyone’s already given the NFC to by acclimation for nearly the whole season. The Ravens may have played 4 teams from the NFC that make the playoffs, 3 of whom they railroaded and the other is the team ‘no one wants to play.’ Don’t know where people expected the tide to turn to but to the best player on the best team, who by the way also can’t keep any running backs on the field.

 

[aleshemsky83]

@aleshemsky83 your boy Russell has to do miracles tonight

I’m not counting Russell out, never have never will.

 

[Karterthadon]

Mahomes came into this league with two all-time greats at the peak of their powers at his disposal. It's insane to think he might go the rest of his career without having a weapon half as good as Tyreek or Travis, forgot two, just ONE guy half as good as them.

 

[EpochLink]

I’m not counting Russell out, never have never will.

Happy holidays, sir

 

[Blitzkrug]

I’m not counting Russell out, never have never will.

That's because you're a clown.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Ravens are a scary good team. Imagine if they were healthy?

Let's see . They have faced 3 division leaders this year ( Lions, Jags , 49ers ) , with 2 of them being tied for top in the NFC now, and outscored them 94-32.

But this right here is even more impressive --



Crazy. And they're doing this while being one of the most injured teams in the league. Lamar is amazing and will probably get the MVP but hats off to their DC as well. He will be getting a HC gig soon ( maybe Panthers? Who knows) .

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Ravens are a scary good team. Imagine if they were healthy?

Let's see . They have faced 3 division leaders this year ( Lions, Jags , 49ers ) , with 2 of them being tied for top in the NFC now, and outscored them 94-32.

But this right here is even more impressive --



Crazy. And they're doing this while being one of the most injured teams in the league. Lamar is amazing and will probably get the MVP but hats off to their DC as well. He will be getting a HC gig soon ( maybe Panthers? Who knows) .

Under radar is emergence of two stars on D no one expected

Geno Stone was just a 7th round pick but this year he is becoming a playmaker with 6 INT's while Madubuike went from being good young DT to looking elite this year (12.5 sacks)

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Under radar is emergence of two stars on D no one expected

Geno Stone was just a 7th round pick but this year he is becoming a playmaker with 6 INT's while Madubuike went from being good young DT to looking elite this year (12.5 sacks)

Looks like DeCosta has done amazing at drafting.

 

[Terry Yake]

Under radar is emergence of two stars on D no one expected

Geno Stone was just a 7th round pick but this year he is becoming a playmaker with 6 INT's while Madubuike went from being good young DT to looking elite this year (12.5 sacks)

hamilton has taken a major step forward too. he's easily one of the most important pieces of the D

 

[John Price]

Inside Jonathan Gannon's awkward exit from Philly -- and how the Eagles are still feeling the effects

Gannon's exit as Eagles defensive coordinator created a ripple effect in Philly, where his successor, Sean Desai, has already been demoted amid the team's struggles.

www.espn.com

 

[PanthersPens62]

"Uncle Dan"

 

[TheGreenTBer]

"Uncle Dan"

Dan Marino should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell.

Would you like a cookie son?

 

[PanthersPens62]

Dan Marino should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell.

Would you like a cookie son?

What am I missing here?