Post-Game Talk: We played today? - 3:2 Flyers

[csk]

I'm not sure if Ehlers would prefer the RW anymore. Especially if his linemates get to be Scheif and Wheelers.

I'm sure he values winning more than playing RW

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

nope

Scheifele and Ehlers are the only two reasons I'm still watching. 2 points for Scheifele. Man he is a on a tear. Is it a tear still? Maybe this is his normal now :amazed:

How long has it been so far? 20 games? At least I think. In that time he has had some line changes (always with Wheeler though). He has had some ups and downs but even the downs have been pretty good and short. We are probably setting ourselves up for disappointment if we expect this to go on indefinitely. He had something like a 14 game dry spell when he came back from injury. Do we assume that wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for the injury? Or do we average the hot streak in with the dry spell?

I think it is a bit of both. It is also affected by having Ehlers with him. Yes, rookie Ehlers is making Scheif better. Scheif is scoring now at a 65 pt pace for a full season but his pace for these last 20 or so games is closer to 90-95 pts for a full season. I'm not going to count on that continuing but I do think he will score 70+ next year if he manages to avoid injury.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Would anyone balk at paying Scheif 6.75 for 8 years?

Yes!

 

[Rheged]

Possibly mentioned elsewhere but seems appropriate here..

 

[CaptainChef]

Would anyone balk at paying Scheif 6.75 for 8 years?

As much as I like Scheif & would love to lock him up for max time, no need to give him 6.75 per. Assuming some of those years are much lower paying EL years, you'd be paying him something like 8.0 per for the latter years in that scenario. Chop off 0.5-1.0 per year there & it might be closer to what he really is worth at this point IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think they are very comparable. In fact Scheifele seems to be improving at the fastest rate among the three right now despite being older.

Maybe but Scheif's improvement will still stop 2-3 years sooner than those 2. Don't underestimate the significance of that age difference. It is possible, even likely that Scheif is at his peak right now.

 

[CaptainChef]

OK, question. Does Ehlers stay on the left with Scheif and Wheeler or does he move back to his preferred RW when we are healthy and have added a LW or 2?

I expect Connor to start, sheltered on the 3rd line but to move up when ready. When he moves up would be my guess for the most likely time to move Ehlers back to RW - if that is going to happen. If so does he move to Scheif's right side or Little's? It could be:
Connor - Scheif - Wheeler
Perreault - Little - Ehlers
Or it could be:
Ehlers - Scheif - Wheeler
Connor - Little - Stafford or Armia

I have mixed feelings myself. E-S-W seem to fit so well I don't want to break them up. OTOH Connor might fit there just as well or better. We need a top 6 RW and Ehlers would be it. MP-Little- Ehlers would be dynamic.

Seems like we are short on natural skilled RWers unless Armia pans out. So ultimately, I could see Connor-Scheif-Wheeler as the preferable 1st line or Ehlers replacing Wheels there. That leaves a highly skilled RWer to play with Little-Perrault on line 2. Two dynamite lines for sure.

 

[veganhunter]

You know, it's kind of funny...but I think I've had just as much fun watching Armia, Ehlers, Scheifele and Co. this year as I did during our playoff run. If anything, it's been with a miniscule fraction of the stress I went through last season.

I kind of agree with you, I imagine it's because it's still a bit of a novelty for us but I've enjoyed it nonetheless.

 

[BigZ65]

Scheifele has produced back to 13-14 when playing with Wheeler. Kane-Scheifele-Wheeler was just as dominant.

They are a PPG duo. It was absurd that they'd keep splitting them up and going back to LLW.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hmm. The Winnipegger in me cringes at that price, but I'm sure I could be convinced it's worth it. I wouldn't even flinch at signing Scheif for that long @ 6/year though.

That's more like it. That long term deal is supposed to benefit both sides. The team is taking all the risk. It is not supposed to pay the player as though the entire period was made up of UFA time.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Maybe but Scheif's improvement will still stop 2-3 years sooner than those 2. Don't underestimate the significance of that age difference. It is possible, even likely that Scheif is at his peak right now.

The only thing I would say to hedge against this: not every player is the same, and Scheifele has shown to be a late bloomer at every stage of his career. It's also quite possible that we see him kick it up yet another notch.

 

[BigZ65]

The only thing I would say to hedge against this: not every player is the same, and Scheifele has shown to be a late bloomer at every stage of his career. It's also quite possible that we see him kick it up yet another notch.

Letting him play 82 games with at least another elite offensive player (and being on PP1 every game) would be that notch in terms of production.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hard to say as there are a lot of moving parts. If we say draft either Mathews or one of the Fins then we don't really need him at RW anymore. You keep ESW and build a 2nd powerhouse line.

Conner Mathews/Little Fin/Little

Yah, those are moving parts I'm ignoring until April 30. Stafford is another but I'm looking at the depth chart with him gone because I don't see a role for him past next year at the latest. So without a top 3 pick and without Stafford we have only wheeler for top 6 RW. Something happening to free Little to move to the wing would give us a second. We have Armia, Dano and Roslovic in the system but the odds are they all peak as good 3RW who are able to move up when needed but none are top 6. That could change of course but none of them look like top 6 material as of today.

On the left side we have Perreault and Connor with Petan maybe moving into the picture. Perreault is a LW/C option and Little is a RW/C option giving some flexibility and Ehlers being able to play either wing does the same. So my question just becomes about Ehlers. Where do we prefer him 1LW or 2RW? Is he going to become a more or less permanent LW or is his future on the right?

 

[Dayofthedogs]

As much as I like Scheif & would love to lock him up for max time, no need to give him 6.75 per. Assuming some of those years are much lower paying EL years, you'd be paying him something like 8.0 per for the latter years in that scenario. Chop off 0.5-1.0 per year there & it might be closer to what he really is worth at this point IMO.

Think I've already gotten into this on the Scheif thread so I'll keep it short here. Buying UFA years is going to cost a lot of money in Scheifs case. Long term deals benefit the team because you have a cost controlled asset throughout his prime and the player gets the benefit of financial security. Long term contracts for aging UFAs have a different value for both the team and player. It's my philosophy that you can save cash on Scheif now but you will end up paying for it in the long term.

6.75 AAV will look real good for a #1 center in 4 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The only thing I would say to hedge against this: not every player is the same, and Scheifele has shown to be a late bloomer at every stage of his career. It's also quite possible that we see him kick it up yet another notch.

Yes, entirely possible. I think it is more likely that the last half of this season represents his peak though. Lets say 72 pts next season. At his peak. Barkov and Monahan each score 70 and peak 2 years later at 85. Meanwhile Scheif has fallen back to only 65. Purely hypothetical of course but fits the patterns.

I would have absolutely no hesitation at signing Scheif for 8 years. But I'm not going to pay him according to a 20 game stretch of hot play. And for comparables I'm not going to pick young players who were able to make the jump right out of the draft. That alone is a good indicator that both Barkov and Monahan have higher peaks than Scheif does. Compare him to other high picks who needed 2 more years of junior to get ready and then became 1C's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Think I've already gotten into this on the Scheif thread so I'll keep it short here. Buying UFA years is going to cost a lot of money in Scheifs case. Long term deals benefit the team because you have a cost controlled asset throughout his prime and the player gets the benefit of financial security. Long term contracts for aging UFAs have a different value for both the team and player. It's my philosophy that you can save cash on Scheif now but you will end up paying for it in the long term.

6.75 AAV will look real good for a #1 center in 4 years.

4 RFA years @ 4 ea + 4 UFA years @ 8 ea = 48 over 8 = AAV of 6. I just don't believe there is any need to pay him 6.75 neither is there justification for that much. 5.75-6.25 will get it done so why pay more? What if he won't sign for 6.75x8 will you pay 8x8, 9x8? Why rush to bump up the number? Who else has been given 54 mil over 8 years? Has he asked for that much? Where do these higher numbers come from? O yeah, 25 pts in his last 20 games. Pulls a number out of the air and defends it because .... 25 pts in 20 games.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Yes, entirely possible. I think it is more likely that the last half of this season represents his peak though. Lets say 72 pts next season. At his peak. Barkov and Monahan each score 70 and peak 2 years later at 85. Meanwhile Scheif has fallen back to only 65. Purely hypothetical of course but fits the patterns.

What patterns? The pattern of the averaged peak of players?

We'll see - I think he's got more than this to give. I feel he'll approach a PPG player in a year or two (which arguably isn't much above your 72pt thought above).

 

[Dayofthedogs]

4 RFA years @ 4 ea + 4 UFA years @ 8 ea = 48 over 8 = AAV of 6. I just don't believe there is any need to pay him 6.75 neither is there justification for that much. 5.75-6.25 will get it done so why pay more? What if he won't sign for 6.75x8 will you pay 8x8, 9x8? Why rush to bump up the number? Who else has been given 54 mil over 8 years? Has he asked for that much? Where do these higher numbers come from? O yeah, 25 pts in his last 20 games. Pulls a number out of the air and defends it because .... 25 pts in 20 games.

I'd pay him 7 at most otherwise id bridge him. There is justification for the number I presented if you look at his comparables. An 8 year deal equals more AAV than a 6 year deal.

#1 centers get paid very well in this league.

I'm not in a rush to bump up the number. I've giving numbers that I would realistically expect to get it done given age, comparables, performance, position.

5.75-6.25 for 6 years 6.25-7 for 8 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What patterns? The pattern of the averaged peak of players?

We'll see - I think he's got more than this to give. I feel he'll approach a PPG player in a year or two (which arguably isn't much above your 72pt thought above).

Exactly. And I don't think it will be in a year or two either. I think it has already begun and will equal about 72 pts next year. I love Scheif's play as much as anybody and I'm very optimisitic for it to continue. It doesn't look flukey to me although his sh% may be a little high.

That doesn't make Monahan and Barkov into good comparables for him. Find somebody who has been more nearly the same at the same age. IDK who, or care. There must be someone who is a better match. Those two have been a whole tier above Scheif and show no signs yet of tapering off.

 

[surixon]

Exactly. And I don't think it will be in a year or two either. I think it has already begun and will equal about 72 pts next year. I love Scheif's play as much as anybody and I'm very optimisitic for it to continue. It doesn't look flukey to me although his sh% may be a little high.

That doesn't make Monahan and Barkov into good comparables for him. Find somebody who has been more nearly the same at the same age. IDK who, or care. There must be someone who is a better match. Those two have been a whole tier above Scheif and show no signs yet of tapering off.

Well that's part of the issue. There aren't that many recent comparables that followed a similar development arc. The best I can come up with are Getzlaf, Carter and Giroux and they all signed their 2nd contracts so long ago that the numbers wouldn't really be comparable.

Also making it early doesn't guarantee anything. Ask RNH and even Mckinnion both of whom showed a lot of promise early but have stalled in their development.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Maybe but Scheif's improvement will still stop 2-3 years sooner than those 2. Don't underestimate the significance of that age difference. It is possible, even likely that Scheif is at his peak right now.

how do you know this?


Also if his peak is 25 points every 20 games that makes him a 100 point player does it not?

 

[robertocarlos]

So then, bridge him and if he puts up 90 points then pay the man his 10 million dollars.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Exactly. And I don't think it will be in a year or two either. I think it has already begun and will equal about 72 pts next year. I love Scheif's play as much as anybody and I'm very optimisitic for it to continue. It doesn't look flukey to me although his sh% may be a little high.

That doesn't make Monahan and Barkov into good comparables for him. Find somebody who has been more nearly the same at the same age. IDK who, or care. There must be someone who is a better match. Those two have been a whole tier above Scheif and show no signs yet of tapering off.

What exactly do you expect Barkov and Monahan to become? How manynpoints will they score 80? 100? 120?

 

[Jetsfan4life]

Sorry if this was already talked about but where is Lipon?

 

[CaptainChef]

I'd pay him 7 at most otherwise id bridge him. There is justification for the number I presented if you look at his comparables. An 8 year deal equals more AAV than a 6 year deal.

#1 centers get paid very well in this league.

I'm not in a rush to bump up the number. I've giving numbers that I would realistically expect to get it done given age, comparables, performance, position.

5.75-6.25 for 6 years 6.25-7 for 8 years.

You don't seem to understand the difference between RFA & UFA years. The only reason you even consider giving him 4.0 per year during his RFA years (4) is because you are also buying UFA years. Otherwise, if you do a 2-3 year bridge its a lot less than 4.0 for those years.

So if you're giving him an average of 7 per year over the 8 years means that you are in fact paying him 10 per year for those last 4 UFA years. Maybe you think he'll be worth what Kopitar is, but I'd like to see some long-term evidence that he is elite before I pay him elite salary tyvm.