GDT: WCQF | G3 | Oilers @ Kings | 4.21.23 | 8:00PM | SN

[Drivesaitl]

The only caveat here is that was 4 on 4 and McDrai were the go to duo all season for 4 on 4.

To me the issue was less deployment and more situational awareness by McDavid forgetting that scoring there was way less important than not getting scored on, particularly as LA was generating virtually nothing at 5 on 5.

The trouble with the matchup of these clubs and why LA are able to survive us as often as they have is principally Kopitar, Danult at Center and D like Doughty and a relatively solid D group. Add to it that 80% of Kings have been rolling out a reasonable fascimile of a 200ft game for a couple of years and it can withstand us loading up. The Kings couldn't withstand it when we had Kane playing out of his body in the peak play of his entire career. Kane was G/G in the series last year. He was the deal breaker. Kane won the series. I've said that often. Its the case. The Kings checking were not being able to cover every option and Kane ended up being the open look danger in that series.

With Hyman, Kane, maybe McD on the mend its making it tougher for us to seperate from the Kings. The last time we blew out the Kings was when Kane was on fire.

 

[DrDrai]

This is as catty as I'm getting...

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Nah. You aren't seeing it man. You'll know it when we beat LA. It'll come to haunt them.

Underneath all that cuteness is a killer.

 

[bone]

The graph bolding is playing with stats. The column that should be looked at is the PP OPP column. If one looks at that column the ordinal listing is much different. Plus that only 2 calls against the Oilers, of the 10, are even arguably questionable.

The graph is intentionally misleading to put LA on top and Edmonton on bottom. Thats just to stir hits and controversy. If we look at actual penalties awarded (which is sensibly the column one should be looking at in devising NHL bias) then you look at PP OPP. In that column 2 clubs have had 11pp's and 4 clubs including LA have had 4. So that 6 our of 16 clubs in playoffs have had as many/more PP Opp as the Kings.

The Oilers have taken this many penalties because 8 of the penalties they took are going to be penalities almost every time.

Even that shows the largest discrepancy of any series in the playoffs so far except Carolina's series.

LA 10 Edmonton 4 (6 PP difference)
Carolina 10 Islanders 4 (6 PP difference)
Dallas 11 Minnesota 9 (2 PP difference)
Rangers 10 Devils 8 (2 PP difference)
Tampa 11 Toronto 10 (1 PP difference)
Vegas 7 Winnipeg 6 (1 PP difference)
Boston 6 Florida 5 (1 PP difference)
Seattle 5 Avalanche 4 (1 PP difference)

While I generally agree Edmonton's penalties have mostly been legit, I'm struggling with the belief that the difference between the two is that drastic. Even if it was 10-6 I'd be less annoyed particularly when the discrepancy is 9-1 in over 100 minutes of hockey played in games after Edmonton scores on an early power play. That 1 powerplay they had was an abbreviated 33 second one.

 

[Paralyzer]

This is as catty as I'm getting...

Dat bitch Carole Baskins...Stole ma kitties...

 

[Drivesaitl]

When has anyone used generic shots on goal to be a measure of domination?

At evens, this series hasn't even been close, in any statistical measure outside of the actual score. Which as we all know because of the variance and luck in the game can reward the lesser team, even over the span of 7 games.

When your goalie is rocking a .940 save percentage in high danger situations, you're being outchanced nearly 2:1 at even strength, and you've generated 1/3 of your quality scoring chances on the powerplay, all signs point to you being the lesser team by quite a wide margin.

I think he should be moved to 2RW as he has shown chemistry with Leon. Run something like the following:

Kane-McD-Hyman
RNH-Drai-Foegele

Advanced analytics do not describe series like this that well because the Kings would intentionally be in prevent sets a lot more than the Oilers would be and the Kings are essentially rolling with a 1-3-1 form. Of COURSE most analytics are going to veer to the Oilers dominating. But thats essentially because the Kings are hanging back by design, and further to getting juicy counters.

I would have thought its a given that people understand that the team playing an NZ lock and hanging back will be giving more than getting. But the design and strategy of counter clubs is to be getting juicy turnovers, odd man breaks, and even breakaways. I mean the Oilers scored tons of their goals in 05-06 on pure counters and a guy like Fernando Pisani scored almost all his 14 goals that spring with odd man rushes if not breakaways. The kings design is not to dominate play but to score off the counters.

People can keep believing these games and results are not even close and that the Oilers are blowing the kings out of the water. The results and score lines of games this season and playoffs suggests otherwise, and is dead even.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Putting Leon and Connor together, if that is what is in fact happening, seems like a bad move. We’ve been controlling the bulk of the games, keep doing what you’re doing, and focus on not taking dumb penalties. If the team can play more disciplined the penalty gap will shrink and our special teams advantage will come into play.

I’m betting the Mcdavid line wont continue to be so pedestrian, likewise I think Korpisalo breaks at some point.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Even that shows the largest discrepancy of any series in the playoffs so far except Carolina's series.

LA 10 Edmonton 4 (6 PP difference)
Carolina 10 Islanders 4 (6 PP difference)
Dallas 11 Minnesota 9 (2 PP difference)
Rangers 10 Devils 8 (2 PP difference)
Tampa 11 Toronto 10 (1 PP difference)
Vegas 7 Winnipeg 6 (1 PP difference)
Boston 6 Florida 5 (1 PP difference)
Seattle 5 Avalanche 4 (1 PP difference)

While I generally agree Edmonton's penalties have mostly been legit, I'm struggling with the belief that the difference between the two is that drastic. Even if it was 10-6 I'd be less annoyed particularly when the discrepancy is 9-1 in over 100 minutes of hockey played in games after Edmonton scores on an early power play. That 1 powerplay they had was an abbreviated 33 second one.

Yes. but the discrepancy is subject to two specific teams and only 2 games being played. As a stat line its bogus from the beginning as not enough sample is in. A stat like this becomes more meaningful wnen more games and data are in.

This particular stat after only 2 games is basically reflecting that the Oilers have taken around 8 penalties of the type that almost automatically get penalized. Should the Oilers be GETTING more PP OPP, Sure, but how many more being debatable as the Kings as a team have strived and been told to limit infractions, and obviously due to the lethality of the Oilers PP.

I'll point something out as well as the Oilers fans tend to think we're getting jobbed but people should glance at the Wild-Stars series. The Wild under Evason have basically been employing a Broadstreet bullies approach to games there and even seeking to injure star players. Somehow this not really reflected in the PP OPP stats. It should be the most onesided in the playoffs thus far.

 

[bone]

Yes. but the discrepancy is subject to two specific teams and only 2 games being played. As a stat line its bogus from the beginning as not enough sample is in. A stat like this becomes more meaningful wnen more games and data are in.

This particular stat after only 2 games is basically reflecting that the Oilers have taken around 8 penalties of the type that almost automatically get penalized. Should the Oilers be GETTING more PP OPP, Sure

For sure, sample size is really small, but at some point the gap should theoretically close a bit. If it doesn't though at what point does it become something of a legit beef? Particularly because of the fact that the whistle has pretty much disappeared the moment Edmonton scores a goal on the PP so far in this series.

 

[Drivesaitl]

For sure, sample size is really small, but at some point the gap should theoretically close a bit. If it doesn't though at what point does it become something of a legit beef? Particularly because of the fact that the whistle has pretty much disappeared the moment Edmonton scores a goal on the PP so far in this series.

For sure. Note that I'm not discounting at any point that NHL game management exists. Its been my general view that it does.

But I am bit of a stickler with how stats are used. In this instance I explained how the column used was intentionally misleading.

 

[McBigYak]

Advanced analytics do not describe series like this that well because the Kings would intentionally be in prevent sets a lot more than the Oilers would be and the Kings are essentially rolling with a 1-3-1 form. Of COURSE most analytics are going to veer to the Oilers dominating. But thats essentially because the Kings are hanging back by design, and further to getting juicy counters.

I would have thought its a given that people understand that the team playing an NZ lock and hanging back will be giving more than getting. But the design and strategy of counter clubs is to be getting juicy turnovers, odd man breaks, and even breakaways. I mean the Oilers scored tons of their goals in 05-06 on pure counters and a guy like Fernando Pisani scored almost all his 14 goals that spring with odd man rushes if not breakaways. The kings design is not to dominate play but to score off the counters.

People can keep believing these games and results are not even close and that the Oilers are blowing the kings out of the water. The results and score lines of games this season and playoffs suggests otherwise, and is dead even.

So you're suggesting the Kings getting outchanced 2:1 at evens utilizing a 1-3-1 strategy is somehow by design? That they can afford to do this because of the counter attempts they're getting?

I get the 1-3-1 is going to give up more than it gets, but not to this extent. Not if you want to win games anyways. One of the most glaring statistics is Korpisalos HDSC %. This series is pretty nasty right now if he's not .940%.

They've had one goal off of a counter all series, the VD turnover in game 2.

 

[McAsuno]

The Oilers have played extremely well 5x5, and Korpisalo has been keeping LA close. Skinner has been relatively fine. They need to take less penalties for sure, and if they do that and keep playing like they are? They should be good.

 

[McJadeddog]

More domination? Yes please.

My only worry is goaltending at this point.

This is pretty much me as well. We are very obviously losing the tending battle so far. Korp with .921 save% and Skinner with .898. So Korp playing at a near Vezina candidate level, and Skinner at roughly replacement level. The advanced stats back this up as well, but are a bit more kind to Skinner, with Korp being 4th in league with 1.5 goals saved above expected, and Skinner at 9th with 0.6 above expected.

Of course it is only 2 games, but the series is almost as short and we can't afford to give away any more games due to tending. It would sure be nice to see Korp have an average game here, because I think with even average LA tending, we take this series pretty handily. But the point is that Korp ISN'T playing average at all, he is playing fantastic, and whether we like it or not, he is part of LA's team.

Of course getting a few more PPs would help as well, but I'm not expecting the refs to start treating both teams the same. I fully anticipate to continue to get the short end of the stick when it comes to refereeing.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

For sure. Note that I'm not discounting at any point that NHL game management exists. Its been my general view that it does.

But I am bit of a stickler with how stats are used. In this instance I explained how the column used was intentionally misleading.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So you're suggesting the Kings getting outchanced 2:1 at evens utilizing a 1-3-1 strategy is somehow by design? That they can afford to do this because of the counter attempts they're getting?

I get the 1-3-1 is going to give up more than it gets, but not to this extent. Not if you want to win games anyways. One of the most glaring statistics is Korpisalos HDSC %. This series is pretty nasty right now if he's not .940%.

They've had one goal off of a counter all series, the VD turnover in game 2.

Not meaning to be obtuse with this but I really don't think HDSC are as good a stat as they are purported to be. Teams have different schemes, passes across etc that can be more dangerous than a standard HDSC. Not all are equal, of course. For instance the Drai goal in his usual office that he scored in game 2 is not even an HDSC. Its not in that area. Conversely Danault, and Vilardi score two goals in what appear to be non dangerous spots. Except those players score those types of greasy goals. Another comment is that the OT goal Iafallo got had more likelihood of being a goal due to it being a 3 point passing play with one timed service. Basically hard to defend, and with the pass emanating from back of goal line the goalie is HELPLESS. That play is basically one of the reasons that Wayne Gretzky used it, and was the highest producer in history of hockey.

Just curious, do analytics and HDSC even factor in lethality of plays emanating from behind the net and plays like that which are setplays?

Hockey is too complex to quantify with easy numbers.

 

[Soli]

Lizotte not at morning skate, Kaliyev exits the lineup. LAK's rolling with bottom 6 changes.

 

[McBigYak]

Not meaning to be obtuse with this but I really don't think HDSC are as good a stat as they are purported to be. Teams have different schemes, passes across etc that can be more dangerous than a standard HDSC. Not all are equal, of course. For instance the Drai goal in his usual office that he scored in game 2 is not even an HDSC. Its not in that area. Conversely Danault, and Vilardi score two goals in what appear to be non dangerous spots. Except those players score those types of greasy goals. Another comment is that the OT goal Iafallo got had more likelihood of being a goal due to it being a 3 point passing play with one timed service. Basically hard to defend, and with the pass emanating from back of goal line the goalie is HELPLESS. That play is basically one of the reasons that Wayne Gretzky used it, and was the highest producer in history of hockey.

Just curious, do analytics and HDSC even factor in lethality of plays emanating from behind the net and plays like that which are setplays?

Hockey is too complex to quantify with easy numbers.

I do agree that HDSC are a little misleading to an extent, but not THIS much. I know Staples and McCurdy manually track them and it produces much better quality results than the automated ones. But even in this case, their numbers show Edmonton leading the way by a significant amount.

 

[bone]

For sure. Note that I'm not discounting at any point that NHL game management exists. Its been my general view that it does.

But I am bit of a stickler with how stats are used. In this instance I explained how the column used was intentionally misleading.

It is to a certain extent in this instance as it hyper inflates it on the basis of one of the powerplays being only 33 seconds, and the powerplay time on another being shortened up as a large part of it was started at 5-3.

But in some ways the example of the 33 second PP is important to draw attention to if one wants to suggest there could be some game management/bias creeping in, and therefore gives some meaning to the PP time stat beyond the normal opportunities stat.

LA had a powerplay when the only call against them beyond the 12 minute mark of a game was called.

From a game managment perspective, refs are much more likely to call a penalty on the team that's on the powerplay if they commit one because of the greater impact of ignoring it combined with the lesser impact of just calling it.

The team already has an advantage, ignoring something that gives them further advantage would make one subjectively more likely to make the call. It is further compounded that since there was still 90 left in the one penalty, the ref subconsciously could think that the impact of the 2nd penalty is significantly less as they don't get a lot of time, and possibly would never get a chance for a faceoff win in the attacking zone during that penalty which I suspect correlates quite strongly to scoring chances earned on a PP per minute of PP time.

 

[Porkleaker]

Pretty good records under them. I expect Kozari will somehow find his way onto the ice to f*** it all up.

 

[bucks_oil]

Gotta finish this in 3 games. Don't want to wait from Tuesday to Saturday for another Playoff game...

I just saw that... why is there an artificial gap before gm6?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

SOG in Game 1 were 40-35. Not sure about "absolute domination" and I'm hearing this comment a lot. Indeed its ongoing commentary here and yet since last playoffs The Oilers have won 7 games and the Kings 6.

It’s potentially of concern that the Oilers required a third period goal from Klim Kostin to salvage their home set. Oddly it didn't come from first line and to that end was reminiscent of some players having trouble producing that we witnessed in the Winnipeg and Chicago series.

I’m sure having a ton more powerplay time wasn’t the reason the shots were close in the first game

 

[North Cole]

I just saw that... why is there an artificial gap before gm6?

Staples has 3 teams in it and all of them are in the playoffs. Kings Tuesday, no game Wed, Clippers and Lakers thurs/friday. NHL either had to take b2b Tues/Wed or a 3 day break. This way you technically stay on schedule by having the game in the normal Sat slot and missing Thrusday. b2b moves you into Wed and conflicts with other TV arrangements from the other half of the series'

 

[Drivesaitl]

It is to a certain extent in this instance as it hyper inflates it on the basis of one of the powerplays being only 33 seconds, and the powerplay time on another being shortened up as a large part of it was started at 5-3.

But in some ways the example of the 33 second PP is important to draw attention to if one wants to suggest there could be some game management/bias creeping in, and therefore gives some meaning to the PP time stat beyond the normal opportunities stat.

LA had a powerplay when the only call against them beyond the 12 minute mark of a game was called.

From a game managment perspective, refs are much more likely to call a penalty on the team that's on the powerplay if they commit one because of the greater impact of ignoring it combined with the lesser impact of just calling it.

The team already has an advantage, ignoring something that gives them further advantage would make one subjectively more likely to make the call. It is further compounded that since there was still 90 left in the one penalty, the ref subconsciously could think that the impact of the 2nd penalty is significantly less as they don't get a lot of time, and possibly would never get a chance for a faceoff win in the attacking zone during that penalty which I suspect correlates quite strongly to scoring chances earned on a PP per minute of PP time.

tbh I'm not understanding what you said in the last two paragraphs. Not following.

Thanks for the exchange.

 

[bone]

Pretty good records under them. I expect Kozari will somehow find his way onto the ice to f*** it all up.

Haven't Kozari games been relatively fair the last couple years after he and McDavid finally buried the hatchet. I remember the gong show that was the first few games after the "go upstairs" incident, but when I looked into it last year, more games were called much more favorably.

 

[Shad5150]

If the Oilers cut down on the stupid stick penalties and PP's start to even out, the LA Kings are in big trouble.