Prospect Info: Way Too Early Devils-Centric Mock Draft For February

[glenwo2]

No professional team is going to embrace tanking. Fundamentally, it’s hard to root for your favorite team to lose. With that said, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about our draft position and the impact these last otherwise 14 games could have. While there is an “elite 8” group of players, I personally want one of Stutzle/Rossi/Drysdale (in no particular order) and then Holtz slightly less. If the Devils secure a top 6 pick it ensures they can land one of these players.

While Anaheim and San Jose aren’t playing too terribly at the moment, Anaheim in particular, the Devils are something like 6-2-2 in their last 10 and have opened up a 4-5 point lead on both those teams. We are now also 2 points ahead of Buffalo who is totally reeling with 6 losses in a row. My brother is a big Sabres fan and he believes Buffalo may (and should) shut Eichel down. Apparently he is dealing with a sports hernia type of injury.

Looking at the remaining schedules, at first glance it appeared to me that both San Jose and Buffalo don’t have many winnable games on the surface. Anaheim arguably has a much easier schedule than those teams or the Devils.

Teams that are almost guaranteed to finish below the Devils:

1) Detroit
2) L.A.
3) Ottawa

Currently worse than the Devils:
4) San Jose
5) Anaheim
6) Buffalo

Now just a few points ahead of the Devils:
7) Chicago
8) Montreal

If there is a silver lining here, it’s that the prospects from 3-8 (3-6 especially IMHO) are all rated so closely. It feels a bit different than previous years.

Here’s hoping Arizona keeps losing and we have two top 10 picks. Some combo of the aforementioned players or one of them with Raymond or Perfetti would be an absolute coup!!

Well we don't want Arizona to lose TOO MUCH but man...it would be amazing if they lost just enough to end up with the #4 pick(just out of Protected lottery range).

 

[longislanddevil]

Well we don't want Arizona to lose TOO MUCH but man...it would be amazing if they lost just enough to end up with the #4 pick(just out of Protected lottery range).

I hear ya, bud. Looking at the standings, it’s difficult to envision Arizona finishing any “higher” than 8th worst (which may be a stretch even) or 9th. It’s not impossible but maybe more likely the pick is between 10-12. The Coyotes pick would yield a 19% chance of winning a lottery ball if they finish 8th worst and 16% if they place 9th worst. 11.4 and 9.8% odds for 10th and 11th worst record, respectively. I still want Arizona to fall as much as possible as the odds will still be significantly against them.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Give me anyone in that top #6 and I’ll be happy. I’m still on the fence about Raymond and there’s something about Perfetti’s game that makes me a little nervous if he’s our guy with our pick.

Much of the skepticism regarding Raymond has centered on his lack of statistical output in the Swedish Elite league, but it does not bother me at all. He's just a tremendous skater and a huge talent. Every aspect of his game are elite aside from his shooting and physical game -- and both of those are pretty darned good for a kid his size.

Perfetti is kind of in contrast in that his physical package does not wow you, but he just continues to put up absurdly impressive numbers. His hands and hockey IQ are just elite, and I think he's going to score at any level. I just love the way Perfetti processes the game, how he slows it down and always seems to make a great play.

Granted, I have these guys ranked #7 and #8 in my "Big 8", but they're still firmly entrenched in the Big 8. As the Devils' improved play down the stretch lowers their odds of a top 5 pick, there's an improved chance in my mind that one of these two kids winds up in New Jersey next year.

 

[StevenToddIves]

With the way we’re playing it’s time to update my 3 draft selections: 1. Cole Perfetti-Forward 2. Connor Zary-Center 3. Lukas Cormier-LHD. I’d be happy with this group.

I'm going to start talking up Perfetti a bit more, since the Devils pick looks like it will wind up in the #7-#8 range rather than higher up. He's just an incredible offensive player, and I'd rank his hockey IQ as tops in the entire draft class. His shooting/passing/vision/hands combination is simply elite, as well. Though his skating is good-but-not-great and he is not the most physically powerful winger, he's a kid who should score at any level.

It's hard not to love Connor Zary. Every shift he plays is fast and hard, and though he lacks a singular elite tool he is also a 200-foot center with scoring touch and physicality who lacks any discernible weakness. He's going to be an ideal #2C at the NHL level.

Cormier I see more as a third round pick than a kid you take with the third pick in the first round. Quite simply, his defensive game is too far below average to risk a top 60 pick on. I'd have no problem taking a 5'9, offensively gifted defenseman if he were at least capable in his own zone, but while Cormier is indeed impressive with the puck on his stick, he's very problematic without it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am still holding out hope we thread the needle of mediocrity along with Arizona so we can get both 67s players.

If our pick ends up in the #7-#9 range, I'm going to have my fingers crossed that we somehow wind up with one of Rossi/Holtz, but we'd need to go into the draft with the realization that this was no sure thing.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If only Hughes and Hischier would be the main components to our recent success. The good thing is that we know both those kids will eventually lead us to the playoffs but in the meantime Blackwood, Gusev and Bratt have all been lights out.

Finishing 6th is my best case scenario and 9th would be disastrous, even if someone will probably drop or a team will reach for a kid who’s out of the top #8.

Anton Lundell would be a possibility to go top 8. He's got a very high floor and brings quite an impressive physical package to the table. This is in contrast to a kid like Cole Perfetti, who doesn't wow you with the physical tools but is just one hell of a hockey player.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Feed me Jake Sanderson some how some way in this draft

 

[StevenToddIves]

I will say this though, the near-consensus "top eight" is who... Laf, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale, Perfetti? I'd still be thrilled to come away with Lundell and Quinn.

I keep calling them the "Big 8". I'm ranking them:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Rossi
5 Drysdale
6 Holtz
7 Raymond
8 Perfetti

I think there is a discernible tier drop after this group, but I will say that the next tier has some terrific talents, notably Sanderson, Quinn, Lundell, Mysak, Amirov, Zary and Schneider.

 

[StevenToddIves]

do you think Rossi will be on the board at #7? I hope we grab him too

No.

But it's not impossible. Four of the top 6 picks are currently owned by teams who rarely take players below 6'0 in the early rounds: Los Angeles, Ottawa and Anaheim. Hopefully, Rossi's 5'9 measurement will scare someone off, even though he plays much, much bigger than his size.

 

[glenwo2]

Feed me Jake Sanderson some how some way in this draft

Isn't Dakota Mermis enough?


I do wonder where Jake Sanderson will end up, though.

@StevenToddIves , what's your opinion on him?

(If he was already spoken about by you, then I apologize ahead of time.)

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Much of the skepticism regarding Raymond has centered on his lack of statistical output in the Swedish Elite league, but it does not bother me at all. He's just a tremendous skater and a huge talent. Every aspect of his game are elite aside from his shooting and physical game -- and both of those are pretty darned good for a kid his size.

Perfetti is kind of in contrast in that his physical package does not wow you, but he just continues to put up absurdly impressive numbers. His hands and hockey IQ are just elite, and I think he's going to score at any level. I just love the way Perfetti processes the game, how he slows it down and always seems to make a great play.

Granted, I have these guys ranked #7 and #8 in my "Big 8", but they're still firmly entrenched in the Big 8. As the Devils' improved play down the stretch lowers their odds of a top 5 pick, there's an improved chance in my mind that one of these two kids winds up in New Jersey next year.

To me, you need to be an elite skater and have another elite quality to be talked about in the top #10. I just find it too risky to pick someone in the top #10 that can’t skate with the best of them at the junior level. One can just imagine what he’ll do in the pros.

For whatever reason, when I think of someone with elite hands and hockey IQ who racks up a ton of pts in juniors but has skating issues, I think of Robbie Schremp. Don’t ask me why but that’s the comparison I automatically make since Schremp dominated the junior level but was enable to keep up at the pro level.

Maybe there’s nothing in common between both players but that’s who I think about when I see the scouting report you came out with regarding Perfetti.

Maybe you can crush any of my concerns regarding Perfetti lol.

 

[StevenToddIves]

No professional team is going to embrace tanking. Fundamentally, it’s hard to root for your favorite team to lose. With that said, I’d be lying if I stated I wasn’t concerned about our draft position and the impact these last otherwise 14 meaningless games could have. While there is an “elite 8” group of players, I personally want one of Stutzle/Rossi/Drysdale (in no particular order) and then Holtz slightly less. If the Devils secure a top 6 pick it ensures they can land one of these players.

While Anaheim and San Jose aren’t playing too terribly at the moment, Anaheim in particular, the Devils are something like 6-2-2 in their last 10 and have opened up a 4-5 point lead on both those teams. We are now also 2 points ahead of Buffalo who is totally reeling with 6 losses in a row. My brother is a big Sabres fan and he believes Buffalo may (and should) shut Eichel down. Apparently he is dealing with a sports hernia type of injury.

Looking at the remaining schedules, at first glance it appeared to me that both San Jose and Buffalo don’t have many winnable games on the surface. Anaheim arguably has a much easier schedule than those teams or the Devils.

Teams that are almost guaranteed to finish below the Devils:

1) Detroit
2) L.A.
3) Ottawa

Currently worse than the Devils:
4) San Jose
5) Anaheim
6) Buffalo

Now just a few points ahead of the Devils:
7) Chicago
8) Montreal

If there is a silver lining here, it’s that the prospects from 3-8 (3-6 especially IMHO) are all rated so closely. It feels a bit different than previous years.

Here’s hoping Arizona keeps losing and we have two top 10 picks. Some combo of the aforementioned players or one of them with Raymond or Perfetti would be an absolute coup!!

Excellent take, here.

My own dream scenario is that the NJ and AZ pick both wind up in the top 8 and the Devils walk away with two of Rossi/Drysdale/Holtz. Not likely, but it's always okay to dream.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Isn't Dakota Mermis enough?


I do wonder where Jake Sanderson will end up, though.

@StevenToddIves , what's your opinion on him?

(If he was already spoken about by you, then I apologize ahead of time.)

I've moved Sanderson up to #9 in my overall rankings, and he's separated himself to me as the top LD in the class of 2020. He's got a lot of Ryan Suter in him -- he does everything well with no discernible weakness. He's very good across the board: skating, shooting, defense, size, smarts, compete level, defensive acuity, vision, physicality -- you name it. He's going to be an all-situations, 22-minute per game type guy in the NHL. If he were available at #9 or #10 and the "Big 8" were all off the board, I;d take Sanderson in a heartbeat -- it's virtually a zero-risk pick with a very high potential payoff.

 

[StevenToddIves]

To me, you need to be an elite skater and have another elite quality to be talked about in the top #10. I just find it too risky to pick someone in the top #10 that can’t skate with the best of them at the junior level. One can just imagine what he’ll do in the pros.

For whatever reason, when I think of someone with elite hands and hockey IQ who racks up a ton of pts in juniors but has skating issues, I think of Robbie Schremp. Don’t ask me why but that’s the comparison I automatically make since Schremp dominated the junior level but was enable to keep up at the pro level.

Maybe there’s nothing in common between both players but that’s who I think about when I see the scouting report you came out with regarding Perfetti.

Maybe you can crush any of my concerns regarding Perfetti lol.

I really like this video in particular for alleviating concerns regarding Perfetti, I sent it to a couple of my Buffalo buddies last week.

 

[glenwo2]

I've moved Sanderson up to #9 in my overall rankings, and he's separated himself to me as the top LD in the class of 2020. He's got a lot of Ryan Suter in him -- he does everything well with no discernible weakness. He's very good across the board: skating, shooting, defense, size, smarts, compete level, defensive acuity, vision, physicality -- you name it. He's going to be an all-situations, 22-minute per game type guy in the NHL. If he were available at #9 or #10 and the "Big 8" were all off the board, I;d take Sanderson in a heartbeat -- it's virtually a zero-risk pick with a very high potential payoff.

And he would be the ultimate BPA and D.a.P.o.N(Drafting a Position of NEED) at that point since we haven't had a real Talented Defenseman Prospect since Adam Larsson.

But I have a feeling when this season is done, the Devils will still land well within the Top 8.

We are going to have one hell of a Prospect this draft.

 

[theoptimist]

No.

But it's not impossible. Four of the top 6 picks are currently owned by teams who rarely take players below 6'0 in the early rounds: Los Angeles, Ottawa and Anaheim. Hopefully, Rossi's 5'9 measurement will scare someone off, even though he plays much, much bigger than his size.

 

[StevenToddIves]

And he would be the ultimate BPA and D.a.P.o.N(Drafting a Position of NEED) at that point since we haven't had a real Talented Defenseman Prospect since Adam Larsson.

But I have a feeling when this season is done, the Devils will still land well within the Top 8.

We are going to have one hell of a Prospect this draft.

Hopefully, three "hell of a prospect(s)".

I would disagree that LD is a position of need in the organization. Ty Smith is certainly a future top-4 guy with the potential to develop into a top pairing guy -- I've said it since we drafted Smith; he's an outstanding prospect. As far as depth, the Devils are literally stacked with future mid-pairing and bottom-pairing LD prospects: Bahl, Misyul, Okhotyuk, Vukojevic, Bernard, Hellickson.

This is not to say that I would not draft Sanderson -- you can never have too many top-4 caliber D and, like Ty Smith, Sanderson has upside as a potential top pairing guy.

 

[Nubmer6]

I keep calling them the "Big 8". I'm ranking them:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Rossi
5 Raymond
6 Holtz
7 Raymond
8 Perfetti

I think there is a discernible tier drop after this group, but I will say that the next tier has some terrific talents, notably Sanderson, Quinn, Lundell, Mysak, Amirov, Zary and Schneider.

Umm....

You have Raymond twice and no Drysdale

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I don't really see what's wrong with not being a great skater if you have the hockey iq. We have a player just like that right now who is succeeding. Although admittedly it might limit his potential, and maybe same thing will happen to Perfetti but he'll still be a player. Which is why I wouldn't pick him in the top 4 or so, but at 7 or 8? That's a steal.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I've moved Sanderson up to #9 in my overall rankings, and he's separated himself to me as the top LD in the class of 2020. He's got a lot of Ryan Suter in him -- he does everything well with no discernible weakness. He's very good across the board: skating, shooting, defense, size, smarts, compete level, defensive acuity, vision, physicality -- you name it. He's going to be an all-situations, 22-minute per game type guy in the NHL. If he were available at #9 or #10 and the "Big 8" were all off the board, I;d take Sanderson in a heartbeat -- it's virtually a zero-risk pick with a very high potential payoff.

not to mention he’s still so young, July 2002 birthday and i feel like he has gotten so confident as this year has gone on. I have been wanting Sanderson since we started the original draft thread so i would be thrilled to get him with one of our picks. Think your analysis is very on point, also Jack Quinn with goal 50 and 51 today...

 

[ninetyeight]

I keep calling them the "Big 8". I'm ranking them:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Rossi
5 Raymond
6 Holtz
7 Raymond
8 Perfetti

I think there is a discernible tier drop after this group, but I will say that the next tier has some terrific talents, notably Sanderson, Quinn, Lundell, Mysak, Amirov, Zary and Schneider.

You probably meant Drysdale at #5. I have the same top10 albeit slightly different order and then Lundell and Quinn at 9 and 10. I could see Sanderson or some other D like Guhle/Schneider (I like Poirier myself, although maybe more in the #20 range) get picked in the top10.

For me the worst case scenario is Arizona wins the lottery, Vancouver misses the playoffs and we pick in the 11-15 range, miss Quinn and have to ”settle” for a less exciting prospect. There are many great guys at that range, but without a top10 pick to go with them, I couldn’t help to be disappointed.

 

[glenwo2]

I don't really see what's wrong with not being a great skater if you have the hockey iq. We have a player just like that right now who is succeeding. Although admittedly it might limit his potential, and maybe same thing will happen to Perfetti but he'll still be a player. Which is why I wouldn't pick him in the top 4 or so, but at 7 or 8? That's a steal.

And who might that be, if I may ask?

 

[My3Sons]

And who might that be, if I may ask?

Gusev?

 

[Emperoreddy]

Quinn scored his 50th goal today.

 

[Nubmer6]

You probably meant Drysdale at #5. I have the same top10 albeit slightly different order and then Lundell and Quinn at 9 and 10. I could see Sanderson or some other D like Guhle/Schneider (I like Poirier myself, although maybe more in the #20 range) get picked in the top10.

For me the worst case scenario is Arizona wins the lottery, Vancouver misses the playoffs and we pick in the 11-15 range, miss Quinn and have to ”settle” for a less exciting prospect. There are many great guys at that range, but without a top10 pick to go with them, I couldn’t help to be disappointed.

I'd be disappointed too, although it could be interesting to have TWO unprotected 1sts next year where it LOOKS like it may be Defenseman heavy.