Post-Game Talk: #VegasStronger - Golden Knights 3, Jets 2 (OT)

[Maukkis]

Ok, this is exactly what wasn't in those highlights. Some other situation was (in the 3rd I think), where Laine was totally undressed in his own blueline causing a breakaway.
So they were all bad on (that) PP, but that shortie wasn't on Laine, Roslo or Connor (it can be debated if Buff gets some blame for losing the puck, but even after that they gained control and could've kept it). I know that sometimes you can point out some goal starting from some specific error earlier, but in this case, not in my opinion. BUT it doesn't mean they played well otherwise.

Everyone is to blame. Simple.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Jets OT record this season is 1-7-4 (2-2 in the 4 that made it to shootout). That's garbage for a team with this much talent and with the goaltending the Jets have been getting.

And last year, the dead-last, worst-team-in-recent-history Colorado Avalanche, who were 14-56 in regulation, were 7-2 in ended-in-3v3 games and 8-4 in games that went to extra time.

And last year, the 2nd-best Pittsburgh Penguins, stacked to the nuts with firepower, en route to winning the cup, were 6-6 in ended-in-3v3 games and 10-11 in games that went to extra time.

And two years ago, the Avs had a much better record in regulation (33-39) yet were 2-4 in games ending in 3v3.

And two years ago, the Penguins were still a top team yet now they were 6-4 in 3v3 games and 10-8 in extra time games.

Do you see what I'm getting at here?

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Some of the logic in this discussion leads me to contemplate which one of these two inevitable conclusions is accurate.

1. Whoever took the initial faceoff of the game for the Jets didn't win or lose it the right way, so they are responsible for every team members' mistakes that happened after that and hence they are responsible for the loss. They are probably responsible for our injuries too.
2. It's all randomness / a coin toss - strategy, player utilization, individual effort and performance are meaningless. It all just happens with outcomes predetermined by fate/luck/randomness so just enjoy it.

 

[AlphaLackey]

WORST TEAM IN RECENT MEMORY, 14-56 in regulation, went 7-2 in games that ended 3v3

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

WORST TEAM IN RECENT MEMORY, 14-56 in regulation, went 7-2 in games that ended 3v3

They prolly had a strategy, good player utilization, responsible players, set plays, appropriate changes. Either that or, it's just the universe being the universe and you, my dog and I with Wally McPuckstopper could go .500 in 3v3 OT as long as the sample size was big enough.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Some of the logic in this discussion leads me to contemplate which one of these two inevitable conclusions is accurate.

1. Whoever took the initial faceoff of the game for the Jets didn't win or lose it the right way, so they are responsible for every team members' mistakes that happened after that and hence they are responsible for the loss. They are probably responsible for our injuries too.
2. It's all randomness / a coin toss - strategy, player utilization, individual effort and performance are meaningless. It all just happens with outcomes predetermined by fate/luck/randomness so just enjoy it.

3. It's not all randomness, there is skill involved, but the degree of variance is relatively massive to the point where you cannot draw meaningful conclusions off of even 8 games decided in 3v3.

There is skill in faceoff, absolutely. And where do the league leaders with a reasonable sample size finish? Around 60%. Why not 100% if it involves skill? Variance.

At at once, the student was enlightened.

 

[AlphaLackey]

They prolly had a strategy, good player utilization, responsible players, set plays, appropriate changes. Either that or, it's just the universe being the universe and you, my dog and I with Wally McPuckstopper could go .500 in 3v3 OT as long as the sample size was big enough.

Except their record the year before (when they were much better) was worse, and their record this year (when they are FAR BETTER) they are currently 1-3 in games ending in 3v3.

Do you see what I'm saying now?

 

[Jets2point0]

Who cares that we lost in 3v3. The important point is banking points, especially against top teams in the league. If there was 3v3 in the playoffs I would be concerned, just be happy that we managed a point last night. This will all be forgotten about sunday morning anyways

 

[Farmboy Patty]

All six players on the ice for that PP deserve shame on that goal. That was one of the worst PP displays I've ever seen in the 2.0 era

All five players deserve shame for that so called PP. The goal against was all on Wheeler, though. I don't see how Helle was to blame for any of the screw ups they made.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Except their record the year before (when they were much better) was worse, and their record this year (when they are FAR BETTER) they are currently 1-3 in games ending in 3v3.

Do you see what I'm saying now?

Yes. You want to join my dog and I and Wally McPuckstopper as the Jets 3v3 OT starting lineup because we will go 0.500 over time and get more points that Buf and Co.

 

[Jet]

At the beginning of the year someone asked which player was going to be better, Laine, or Ehlers. I scoffed that that was even an honest question. "Laine, ainec!!!" I loudly proclaimed.

Not piling on, and I know Laine is going to be great, but right now he is a shell of the player that Ehlers is. I feel like he thinks he's made it and stopped working on his game (which I know is probably wholly incorrect, it's just perception).

 

[Aavco Cup]

All five players deserve shame for that so called PP. The goal against was all on Wheeler, though. I don't see how Helle was to blame for any of the screw ups they made.

Do you think Helle looked prepared for that shot? I don't. He looked like he wasn't ready. He was beaten like a rented mule.

Wheeler was the final dominoe of course but the other players put him in that position.

 

[Jet]

We did not deserve a point....take the money and run. Laine and Myers were such trash tonight.

I want no piece of Vegas in the playoffs.

You thought Myers was trash? That's interesting, cause I did see some mistakes by him but I really thought he was pushing hard. I have really liked his effort and determination this year - I just feel like his execution is lacking at times.

He still really amazes me sometimes with some of the things he manages to do. You can see why he was a top pick and calder winner.

As for Vegas... I hate them already and I wouldn't want to meet them either. They play like us which is a huge compliment.

People losing their shit over their success should calm their tits, though. Bettman wrapped success in a bow for them with the expansion rules. I guess they really want it to work in Vegas. You can see how the league is pushing profitability over the reputation of the league as fair.

 

[grieves]

Just quickly went over the OT highlights,

1. Against PIT game ended after 1 min of play, no scoring chances, Laine's pass is intercepted by Kessel for the game winner
2. Against CBJ scoring chances both ways, Wheeler almost wins it for the Jets but Bob comes up huge. Anderson scores with a screen in front of net
3. Against MTL Myers takes a boarding penalty, Buff fails clear, instead opting for trying to bypass the Montreal player resulting in a goal against
4. Against COL, Jets start OT short-handed for 1:43. COL scores on the first shift.
5. Against TBL, Tampa scores on the first rush
6. Against COL, scoring chances both ways, but I think this is the OT where COL plays a slow possession game. Little pinches with a few seconds left on the clock and COL scores on a breakaway with seconds to go.
7. Vegas yesterday

I don't really see a pattern here. We have been short-handed for two of these losses too.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Speaking of patterns, I took the liberty of plotting a lot of charts.

TL;DR;f*** your charts, nerd: there is barely any correlation between regulation Win % and 3v3 Win %, and essentially zero between regulation Win% and Shootout win%, and essentially zero between regulation Win% and extra time Win%. There is also essentially zero correlation between a team's 3v3 results year-over-year, despite a very noticeable and 200x larger correlation between a team's regulation win% year-over-year.

CONCLUSION: They don't practice 3v3 much for a reason.

Yes, it has skill. So does Rock Paper Scissors. Whole lots of variance in that too.

********

Chart #1: Regulation game won % versus win percent in games decided in 3v3 OT phase.

The resulting R-squared value of 0.0230 indicates virtually zero correlation between regulation game win% and 3v3 win%.

When comparing regulation game win% to shootout win%, it's essentially zero. Actually a minuscule NEGATIVE correlation was measured. But it's statistically so close to zero as to not bother caring.

Finally, I combined the two, to show you the extra-time winning percentage (OT and SO combined) relative to their regulation winning percentage. R-Squared = 0.0027, again, so statistically close to zero as to not bother distinguishing.

FINALLY, for each of the last 3 complete seasons, I correlated the 3v3 win percent to their 3v3 win percent from the prior year (going back a 4th year for the 2014 data set to get the prior year)

As you can see, there is AGAIN essentially zero correlation between how a team does 3v3 in a given year relative to their prior year (R-squared = 0.0010)

To provide some comparison, here is the correlation between regulation win%, year relative to preceding year. R-squared now over 0.20, indicating at least some correlation.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't know whether the reason that teams don't practice much at 3v3 is because there's low correlation between regular season wins and 3v3 wins. Maybe it's seen as too little return on investment. But 23% of games go to extra time - so about 19 games per year on average. That's 19 points up for grabs. You'd want to look at maximizing your chances - that's still quite a few points on the table.

 

[ps241]

You thought Myers was trash? That's interesting, cause I did see some mistakes by him but I really thought he was pushing hard. I have really liked his effort and determination this year - I just feel like his execution is lacking at times.

He still really amazes me sometimes with some of the things he manages to do. You can see why he was a top pick and calder winner.

As for Vegas... I hate them already and I wouldn't want to meet them either. They play like us which is a huge compliment.

People losing their **** over their success should calm their ****, though. Bettman wrapped success in a bow for them with the expansion rules. I guess they really want it to work in Vegas. You can see how the league is pushing profitability over the reputation of the league as fair.

I was a bit overserved when I wrote that post. I have liked Myers over the past 5 or 6 games but I thought he had a REALLY tough night last night. Maybe Vegas's pressure game got to him but he seemed to be making decisions slower. One thing I will say though is when I watch it live and then watch it back on PVR I am prone to modifying some of my thoughts.

I have no issues with Vegas doing well. They paid half a billion dollars for a franchise and if their GM and his team were smart enough to select a team that could compete then good on them. I am really impressed with how they play and I would like to see Hockey succeed in Vegas.

 

[Tommigun]

Except their record the year before (when they were much better) was worse, and their record this year (when they are FAR BETTER) they are currently 1-3 in games ending in 3v3.

Do you see what I'm saying now?

Speaking of patterns, I took the liberty of plotting a lot of charts.

TL;DR;**** your charts, nerd: there is barely any correlation between regulation Win % and 3v3 Win %, and essentially zero between regulation Win% and Shootout win%, and essentially zero between regulation Win% and extra time Win%. There is also essentially zero correlation between a team's 3v3 results year-over-year, despite a very noticeable and 200x larger correlation between a team's regulation win% year-over-year.

CONCLUSION: They don't practice 3v3 much for a reason.

Yes, it has skill. So does Rock Paper Scissors. Whole lots of variance in that too.

********

Chart #1: Regulation game won % versus win percent in games decided in 3v3 OT phase.

The resulting R-squared value of 0.0230 indicates virtually zero correlation between regulation game win% and 3v3 win%.

When comparing regulation game win% to shootout win%, it's essentially zero. Actually a minuscule NEGATIVE correlation was measured. But it's statistically so close to zero as to not bother caring.

Finally, I combined the two, to show you the extra-time winning percentage (OT and SO combined) relative to their regulation winning percentage. R-Squared = 0.0027, again, so statistically close to zero as to not bother distinguishing.

FINALLY, for each of the last 3 complete seasons, I correlated the 3v3 win percent to their 3v3 win percent from the prior year (going back a 4th year for the 2014 data set to get the prior year)

As you can see, there is AGAIN essentially zero correlation between how a team does 3v3 in a given year relative to their prior year (R-squared = 0.0010)

To provide some comparison, here is the correlation between regulation win%, year relative to preceding year. R-squared now over 0.20, indicating at least some correlation.

Great research, thank you. Just goes to show that OT is 100% a coin toss. I think I’d actually enjoy a coin toss more than I do the current format.

 

[ERYX]

At the beginning of the year someone asked which player was going to be better, Laine, or Ehlers. I scoffed that that was even an honest question. "Laine, ainec!!!" I loudly proclaimed.

Not piling on, and I know Laine is going to be great, but right now he is a shell of the player that Ehlers is. I feel like he thinks he's made it and stopped working on his game (which I know is probably wholly incorrect, it's just perception).

My thoughts on Laine this season is that even (future) superstars can be vulnerable to sophomore slumps. Such slumps seem to happen to an awful lot of players.

Also, Laine isn’t the first young player to bulk up too much in the off season and have it impact his game.

I think he’ll be fine in the long run. Even not playing that well he’s leading the team in goals.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I don't know whether the reason that teams don't practice much at 3v3 is because there's low correlation between regular season wins and 3v3 wins. Maybe it's seen as too little return on investment. But 23% of games go to extra time - so about 19 games per year on average. That's 19 points up for grabs. You'd want to look at maximizing your chances - that's still quite a few points on the table.

But how much of a result CAN you even get out of practicing it? There's no persistent year-over-year consistency in the statistic (basically, zero correlation between how good you were at it last year versus how good you are at it this year), even though there IS a noticeable correlation in how good a team is in regulation, year-over-year.

Great research, thank you. Just goes to show that OT is 100% a coin toss. I think I’d actually enjoy a coin toss more than I do the current format.

Eh, if I'm reading R^2 right, it's about 98% a coin toss. The SHOOTOUT, on the other hand, is 100% a coin toss. But yeah, at the very least, "how good the Jets are in regulation" has all-but-zero bearing in "how good we'd expect them to be in OT and SO".

 

[Daximus]

One thing I did notice about our PP's vs Vegas is the first one they kind of hung back and it was a shooting gallery. After that they started applying a lot of pressure. Even double teaming when they could and that is what forced the shorty. It was an excellent tactic to us on us for a simple reason. We are very lackadaisical on PP zone exits. Almost like the players think that there won't be any issues vacating the zone. That is what led to the shorty. Vegas noticed it and made an adjustment and we had no idea how to stop it and it caught the entire PP off guard.

I should also add during 3v3's we don't put a lot of emphasis on possession. You can see it with the way we freely give the puck up or make long passes out of the zone. A lot of teams will continually pass the puck but with the Jets it seems there is this alarming need to get out as quickly as possible and get chances on the rush. Colorado was excellent at this as they passed the puck around a lot and waited for opportunities rather then trying to use force and speed to hammer the puck up ice and try and get a chance off the rush.

 

[suihkukone]

This kind of reasoning goes over my head. I mean, even if there was negative correlation between 3vs3 and regulation wins that does not mean that practising 3vs3 makes you worse in regulation, does it? The fact that it's uncorralated does not mean it's random event.
Personally, I see a clear determinedness in the outcome and it makes me .

 

[grieves]

Buff - Ehlers - Laine


Buff - Little - Laine


Buff being effective in OT WHAAAAAAT?

(I'm sure there is more from last year but I'm a damn dirty Laine fan so can't remember)

 

[Robinson2187]

Great research, thank you. Just goes to show that OT is 100% a coin toss. I think I’d actually enjoy a coin toss more than I do the current format.

Not just OT. The entire ****ing game is becoming a coin toss throughout the league. Consistently lousy reffing, s****y ice and the deep-fried cluster-**** that is goaltender interference has reduced too many games to a crap shoot. Why even practice or draw up game plans when there's this much randomness in the game. Bettman needs to do more than send a F****** memo. Since the "memo" was circulated, goalie interference is a bigger joke than it previously was. He had the All-star break to call everyone together and at least show they're trying to fix it.

I think Bettman needs to go. He's been there too long.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Great research, thank you. Just goes to show that OT is 100% a coin toss. I think I’d actually enjoy a coin toss more than I do the current format.

No. OT success is 100% based upon who executes better on the ice in OT.