Post-Game Talk: #VegasStronger - Golden Knights 3, Jets 2 (OT)

[raideralex99]

The problem I see with the 3vs3 besides starting the wrong players is how the Jets change lines. I noticed when good teams have possession of the puck they are able to change players while keeping the other team's tired players trapped in their end.
Seriously how hard is it to practice it for 10 mins at the end of a practice?

 

[Gm0ney]

But how much of a result CAN you even get out of practicing it? There's no persistent year-over-year consistency in the statistic (basically, zero correlation between how good you were at it last year versus how good you are at it this year), even though there IS a noticeable correlation in how good a team is in regulation, year-over-year.



Eh, if I'm reading R^2 right, it's about 98% a coin toss. The SHOOTOUT, on the other hand, is 100% a coin toss. But yeah, at the very least, "how good the Jets are in regulation" has all-but-zero bearing in "how good we'd expect them to be in OT and SO".

I think there are strategies you can employ to increase your chances in 3v3 (e.g. possession, the mix of players on the ice, some set plays). Still pretty early in the game here - and there is a weak correlation between regulation and 3v3 success. It seems intuitive that there should be some connection between talent, 5v5 success and 3v3 success. 3v3 is a game just like 4v4 or 5v5 - it's just different and everyone's still figuring it out. I mean if we had a 3v3 league with 31 teams playing 82 games wouldn't you think there'd be some more correlation between talent and winning? Taking 2 players off each side doesn't turn hockey into a coinflip - it just looks a bit like it right now. Maybe not though...goals are lucky events and sudden death makes luck an even more significant factor.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I think there are strategies you can employ to increase your chances in 3v3 (e.g. possession, the mix of players on the ice, some set plays). Still pretty early in the game here - and there is a weak correlation between regulation and 3v3 success. It seems intuitive that there should be some connection between talent, 5v5 success and 3v3 success. 3v3 is a game just like 4v4 or 5v5 - it's just different and everyone's still figuring it out. I mean if we had a 3v3 league with 31 teams playing 82 games wouldn't you think there'd be some more correlation between talent and winning? Taking 2 players off each side doesn't turn hockey into a coinflip - it just looks a bit like it right now. Maybe not though...goals are lucky events and sudden death makes luck an even more significant factor.

Sure, if there was 82 games of full 60 minute not-sudden-death 3v3, we'd likely see some consistent results, maybe not relative to 5v5 play but definitely in year-over-year stuff. It's quite possible that some players would be better 3v3 than 5v5. But because it's only 5 minutes or less of sudden death where there's only a few events per side before it goes to a pretty much dead certain coin toss? Rarely do I ever see one side really for choice in any significant OT live odds updates. It's the Any Given Sunday factor on steroids.

 

[FinnJet]

Agreed. I wrote a review of the Tampa game, and mentioned how that game was the best showing from Wheeler as a center, and how Laine had a ridiculous night beside him. They quite literally went from their very best game to something very close to their worst in two days.

I just hope that PoMo doesn't do any knee jerk conclusions based to this 1 of(f) game. When Sheif is back, the 1st line should still have Laine and Wheels innit.

 

[Gm0ney]

I just hope that PoMo doesn't do any knee jerk conclusions based to this 1 of(f) game. When Sheif is back, the 1st line should still have Laine and Wheels innit.

PoMo let that Laine-Little-Ehlers line flounder for 25 games, so I don't think I see him jumping to any conclusions based on this one.

 

[Tommigun]

No. OT success is 100% based upon who executes better on the ice in OT.

But it’s not, that’s the problem. Well technically you are right, in the same way a soccer shootout technically comes down to execution (or hockey shootout for that matter), but the randomness and variance and luck are all such huge factors that they amount to what is essentially a coin toss.

 

[AlphaLackey]

No. OT success is 100% based upon who executes better on the ice in OT.

No, it's not. The better executing team does not always win. You may as well say that the team with the higher biorhythms has a 100% chance of victory. Is that what this is about? Are you trying to get on with the Jets as the team phrenologist or something?

 

[Jets 31]

This is goalie interference

Unbelievable , what a joke , Helly should have acted like he was shot , fall , drop his stick , then maybe the refs would have gotten the call right . And isn't THAT a joke .

 

[raideralex99]

Nice to see the BS call in the sports news even if it yahoo sports ...
James Neal nearly decapitates Connor Hellebuyck, goal counts anyway

 

[Atoyot]

Nice to see the BS call in the sports news even if it yahoo sports ...
James Neal nearly decapitates Connor Hellebuyck, goal counts anyway

*decaffeinates

 

[Zguy370]

Unbelievable , what a joke , Helly should have acted like he was shot , fall , drop his stick , then maybe the refs would have gotten the call right . And isn't THAT a joke .

Yep, this league is a farce., I'm an Oiler fan and we've been screwed plenty a times and watching that slash on Helly last night and they get away with it ., is mindboggling. Looks like the little American president who never put a pair of skates in his life, is really going to make a point that expansion to the Southern States is great for this bush league

 

[Airsmail]

This is goalie interference

So the moral of the story is if your going to take a whack at the goalie, aim high for the head, otherwise its goalie interference? And how can hitting him in the head not impede, to some extent his ability to make a play. In what circumstance does the goalie have a better chance of figuring out where the puck is and making a play on it, with the whack to the head or without it? The inconsistency is pretty embarrassing for the NHL, and makes it look bush league.

As an aside, I though Toby shares a lot of the blame. He initially had inside position and let Haula physically beat him to the puck.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

No, it's not. The better executing team does not always win. You may as well say that the team with the higher biorhythms has a 100% chance of victory. Is that what this is about? Are you trying to get on with the Jets as the team phrenologist or something?

In OT, the team that executes a good goal before the other team wins 100% of the time.

 

[Calendal]

"After video review we have goaltender interference - no goal - we have a penalty number 96 for holding". Avs vs Oilers.

 

[raideralex99]

"After video review we have goaltender interference - no goal - we have a penalty number 96 for holding". Avs vs Oilers.

Strange how that works ... it seems like the Canadian teams are the ones that are getting shafted by the league.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

NHL refs these days.

 

[ERYX]

Strange how that works ... it seems like the Canadian teams are the ones that are getting shafted by the league.

Strange how the league’s favourites always get away with stuff too. For whatever reason Boston has long been a favourite of the NHL and they get away with so much cheap **** and were beneficiaries of a non-interference call last night as well.

As for Vegas, desert dwelling expansion team tops in the west is Bettman’s wet dream. I don’t know if they always get blatantly favoured by the refs but good gravy how on earth was Neal’s two-hander across Helle’s face not interference let alone a lengthy suspension? Because Helle is tough and didn’t dive its all good? How is such a reckless play not being reviewed by player safety? I can’t help but wonder if a player not from the desert pulled that **** if it would be all good??

Good on Helle and Wheels for speaking the truth in their post game interviews.

 

[Jets 31]

Strange how the league’s favourites always get away with stuff too. For whatever reason Boston has long been a favourite of the NHL and they get away with so much cheap **** and were beneficiaries of a non-interference call last night as well.

As for Vegas, desert dwelling expansion team tops in the west is Bettman’s wet dream. I don’t know if they always get blatantly favoured by the refs but good gravy how on earth was Neal’s two-hander across Helle’s face not interference let alone a lengthy suspension? Because Helle is tough and didn’t dive its all good? How is such a reckless play not being reviewed by player safety? I can’t help but wonder if a player not from the desert pulled that **** if it would be all good??

Good on Helle and Wheels for speaking the truth in their post game interviews.

And don't forgot the NHL is very concerned about players and concussions , no hitting to the head or it's a penalty and suspension . Break your stick over the goalie's face , no problem . WTF !!!!!!

 

[AlphaLackey]

This kind of reasoning goes over my head. I mean, even if there was negative correlation between 3vs3 and regulation wins that does not mean that practising 3vs3 makes you worse in regulation, does it? The fact that it's uncorralated does not mean it's random event.
Personally, I see a clear determinedness in the outcome and it makes me .

All that the reasoning tells you is that:

1) While there MAY be team statistics that we can use to determine how well a team should be during 3v3 OT, your regulation win rate is not one of them. As a result, citing the Jets regulation record as "proof" that they need to work on 3v3 has no validity.
2) While there MAY be a strong element of skill in 3v3 OT, the luck factor is so strong that it almost completely dwarfs it; as proof of this, you can't even look at how good you were at 3v3 last year to predict how good you'll be at 3v3 next year (even though you CAN, to a mild degree, look at how good you were in regulation last year to predict how good you'll be in regulation next year).

Conclusion:

* Your regulation win% chance is useless in predicting how likely you are to win your next OT game.
* Your current OT win% record is useless in predicting how likely you are to win your next OT game.
* You can see this manifest in the world of sports betting, where the real-time odds for teams going into overtime rarely, if ever, stray from equal chances, and certainly never stray anywhere near the expectations many on this board have. The Jets chances going into OT against Vegas were essentially 50-50.

 

[AlphaLackey]

In OT, the team that executes a good goal before the other team wins 100% of the time.

The team that scored first in overtime wins 100% of the time? You don't say.

 

[Whileee]

So, Mo's explanation for demoting Armia was "His first two shifts weren't so great".

Was there something wrong in his first shift ? No.

Yes, the second shift wasn't so great, but did something seriously bad happen during that shift ? No.

I guess that's all it takes for some players. The special treatment. And why it's impossible to reward these guys when they're doing great ?

If it takes two bad shifts to be demoted one line, Wheeler and Laine probably should have been in the ECHL by the end of the last game. They were horrid. When Wheeler is bad, it's so noticeable.

 

[Whileee]

Anyone think Roslovic should get a shot a Centering that line? Just to see?

Anything to get Wheeler back to wing. His line needs to be outplaying opponents, and they seldom do.

 

[jesui]

So, Mo's explanation for demoting Armia was "His first two shifts weren't so great".

Was there something wrong in his first shift ? No.

Yes, the second shift wasn't so great, but did something seriously bad happen during that shift ? No.

I guess that's all it takes for some players. The special treatment. And why it's impossible to reward these guys when they're doing great ?

Alltough Maurice said that, I think it's not true. He just said something when asked.

Armia played many shifts with that line after the first two shifts.
As allways Tanev played in the 3rd line after the pp so that Armia got breathing pause. Armia played the next shift with hendricks and connor and it resulted with goal right away.
Thanks to that line we got one point from the game so one could say it was the right decicion from Maurice.

It's funny tough. I'm pretty certain that, that line stays together in tonights game cuz mo was happy with them.
So for Armia succes means reduced icetime.
But i think that 4th line can be a weapon for the jets like it was in the last game.

Maybe not too fair for Armia but hopefully it benefits for the team.

 

[grieves]

Anything to get Wheeler back to wing. His line needs to be outplaying opponents, and they seldom do.

Actually if you look at Corsi, they are slightly outplaying their opponents. If you look at xGoals, they are massively outplaying their opponents.

 

[Channelcat]

So the moral of the story is if your going to take a whack at the goalie, aim high for the head, otherwise its goalie interference? And how can hitting him in the head not impede, to some extent his ability to make a play. In what circumstance does the goalie have a better chance of figuring out where the puck is and making a play on it, with the whack to the head or without it? The inconsistency is pretty embarrassing for the NHL, and makes it look bush league.

As an aside, I though Toby shares a lot of the blame. He initially had inside position and let Haula physically beat him to the puck.

I agree with you, the whack to the head could have impeded his ability to process the situation and find the puck. At the same time, that is not typical interference and the refs were probably thinking that the head wasn't involved in the play and the puck goes in either way. So, now, it could be a penalty, but thats not a reviewable play.

In short, I agree with you, but I understand why it went the way it did.