@GuelphStormer is correct on this one. During the Phoenix bankruptcy trial, the NHL conceded that its own market analysis had Hamilton being a potential top 5 revenue generator.
Potential is a qualifier, the Hamilton supporters in this thread have asserted it as a definite, that it
would be a top five revenue generator. The latter claim is the myth, and is one oft reported on these boards. It's easy to see why market analysis would see the potential in the Hamilton market, you have more than five million people within an hour/hour-and-a-half drive to the city, it's a hockey dedicated market, and incomes are generally high in the Golden Horseshoe. But that's a best case scenario, and it's really not that substantive a claim given how vague it is.
nonsense.
like any new franchise, a team in hamilton will need to build a fanbase, that's a given. but its silly to think artificial boundaries on a map will somehow dissuade people from attending games or developing some sort of emotional affinity for a team. im guessing you are not local, and therefore do not understand distance, traffic and timing ... evening games in downtown hamilton will take folks in the oakville/burlington areas half the time to get to than games in downtown toronto. indeed, more deposits during balsillie's attempt to bring the preds to hamilton in 2007 came from folks east of downtown hamilton than west of it - and that includes burlington and oakville. of course the team will draw folks from there and its silly to suggest otherwise.
It's not. We know that an long commutes to go to games are detriments to a persons chances at becoming a season ticket holder, and season ticket holders are also rarely people going to games by themselves. People in Oakville don't necessarily work in Oakville either (in fact most won't, given it's an affluent bedroom community of the GTA), many will work in Vaughn, Mississauga, Downtown Toronto, etc. For them to come home from work, pick up their families, and go to a game is a significant amount of time. And why would they do it when they have no connection to Hamilton besides also being a city along the 403/QEW? Ottawa has enough trouble going to Kanata and they don't have that problem. The Leafs are a poor comparison anyway, given the dominance of corporate owned seasons tickets, something Hamilton can neither rely on nor expect.
Deposits are completely irrelevant. It takes no effort or risk to put $500 down, and we have no exact statistics on who bought them either. Vegas had a very successful season ticket drive, but it's not guarantee they will have long term local support.
Anyways, the problem is whether they would have good attendance. They would probably sell out most games, if not every game. The problem is everything else. You have an arena that needs half a billion in renovations, a city with a very weak corporate base (you only have to look to New York City, which has three teams, to see that the Rangers are the only one to garner significant corporate support), a city with lower income than others around it, and a city that would need to pay off two teams in order to gain a franchise. Those combined makes Hamilton an unattractive relocation/expansion target, something which the NHL clearly agrees.
If you were a multi-billionaire looking to own a new NHL franchise, why would you pick Hamilton? You have an expansion fee of $650 million (a relocation fee of maybe half that, maybe the same), $500 million to renovate or build a new arena (which would likely have to be done with public funds), an unknown figure (but also probably in the hundreds of millions) to gain access to a market shared by the Sabres and Leafs, a city that is not viewed as having a shared identity by most of it's neighbours, and one that has very little in the name of indigenous corporate support. The attractive part is it's in an expanded metropolitan area of approximately 10 million people, and that area is in a hockey crazed market, but all the negative factors are too much. I've met Jim Balsillie on several occasions. He's a nice man, a smart man, one who would have definitely been a passionate owner. But in his push to get a team, he didn't really stop and think about how little the NHL wanted that market. He must have known to some degree, as is ideal location was a team in KW, not Hamilton, but he didn't do the lengths the NHL would go to avoid that city. Given how uncontroversial it was to move a team to Winnipeg, a city with also many concerns, it is beyond clear the NHL has no interest in Hamilton.
