Post-Game Talk: "Unfortunately, since I bet on the other team, uh, we won't be going for pizza." (Jets 4 Flames 1)

[nobody imp0rtant]

Clown colours? You mean like Blackhawks, NYR, Les Canadiens, etc? Why are people not happy unless their sports team is dressed in drab, dark colours?

Give me some colour and contrast!

They capture the zeitgeist of our time. Seeing them made me get up and dance.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Quantifiable data is only good when the measurement has been tested scientifically and vetted as pure.

Hockey metrics are not that - especially new age stats. They haven't been in practice long enough, and they are subject to interpretation. There are also so many variables in hockey, that these stats have a long way to go to be considered iron clad. I'd also like to see the credentials that the people who have created these stats have in the statistical sciences.

I work with stats and data every day in my job, and we have a wide range of stat qualities and ages, and we consider that when disseminating and weighting those statistics against other things we know when measuring success or tackling a problem.

Beaulieu has been fine this year. He's not a top pair D, and I do hope that Demelo moves up the lineup, and Heinola can take his spot. I don't think Maurice will do that though, as he's risk averse.

What I take issue with is the Beaulieu is awful meme because it's simply not true.

Shot attempts are real events that actually happen in hockey games. They reflect the play. All of the play, the many variables and subtle nuances affect shot attempts, one way or another. Everything done on the ice will show up in shot attempts - eventually. Eventually is key here. All of those variables and nuances can skew the usefulness of counting shot attempts in a snapshot. Counting them in a small sample is not particularly useful. But in larger samples they are very useful and can be analyzed in a variety of ways to reveal more about what actually happened.

Beaulieu has had moments, good and bad, and that is by eye test. No fancy stats involved. He is not awful, but he is not very good either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They capture the zeitgeist of our time. Seeing them made me get up and dance.

Really?

I didn't dislike them nearly as much as I expected to. Adding just a little colour could make them quite good. I already like them better than the 'Aviators'.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Really?

I didn't dislike them nearly as much as I expected to. Adding just a little colour could make them quite good. I already like them better than the 'Aviators'.

No, I hate them too.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

They absolutely would be playing first pair.
Last I checked both were playing first pair for their respective teams (maybe that’s changed, don’t know) and they’d complement each other nicely.
Maurice would love to have them.

If Myers and Chiarot were on our team I think Myers would be playing with Morrisey and then Chiarot would be competing with Forbort for the 2LD or more likely they wouldn't have signed him in the first place.

 

[truck]

I think you touched in it. With a coach like Paul he puts a big premium on a player that will stick up for teammates, even the score, block shots, play through broken bones , and also be really popular in the room. Nathan is one of those players player that I am sure has allot of respect from his teammates and yes the coach. I am not saying it right or wrong but it has a huge influence on Paul and allot of other coaches. I am still not sure Paul needs to go as far as elevating him but while we are winning it annoys me less.

Complete aside...

Best I can tell, hockey is the only sport where " we can't make changes after a win" is a thing.

Drives me crazy.

 

[ps241]

Complete aside...

Best I can tell, hockey is the only sport where " we can't make changes after a win" is a thing.

Drives me crazy.

yea some funny superstitions.

A craft that is so interesting. Very much like the trades where you need to apprentice under a journeyman so allot of lessons passed on.

 

[Tommigun]

Now I have a complaint... you... showing reason about their complaining... how can one complain incessantly... with reason...

It's like inception.

 

[Tommigun]

Myers is also making roughly 6x as much money as Beaulieu is. Myers is horribly overpaid but was a luxury on our third pairing, and there is an argument to be made that Chiarot was too toward the end. Both are better than Beaulieu, who is not a luxury on the third pairing.

Yes Myers is quite overpaid now. But not so much when he was still a Jet.

 

[Tommigun]

I think you touched in it. With a coach like Paul he puts a big premium on a player that will stick up for teammates, even the score, block shots, play through broken bones , and also be really popular in the room. Nathan is one of those players player that I am sure has allot of respect from his teammates and yes the coach. I am not saying it right or wrong but it has a huge influence on Paul and allot of other coaches. I am still not sure Paul needs to go as far as elevating him but while we are winning it annoys me less.

So when Hendricks and similar personalities got contracts for "being good in the room" people were saying it'd be better to play someone who's better at actually playing hockey.
Beuleau is good in the room and also plays some good hockey.
He is exactly what people wanted.

A good morale is important in any work place.

 

[ps241]

So when Hendricks and similar personalities got contracts for "being good in the room" people were saying it'd be better to play someone who's better at actually playing hockey.
Beuleau is good in the room and also plays some good hockey.
He is exactly what people wanted.

A good morale is important in any work place.

yea I don’t travel and hang with the team so these are always tougher for me to comprehend.

 

[Do or Die]

Talking to number of Nucks fans, who are not enamored with Myers....or his contract. Something about brain farts,etc..

 

[voyageur]

My comment was about Beaulieu failing up...

He was a disaster in his last game with Stanley, and the Jets were eaten alive with him on the ice.

Shot attempts were 20-6 in favour of Calgary. His xGoals percentage was 5.38%. He was 2nd in even strength ice time in that one (16:43), playing 2:30 more than Morrissey and 3:00 more than DeMelo.

He was rewarded with a slot on the 1st pair.

Fast forward to his first game with Morrissey, where he posts 40.38% xGoals (2nd worst on the team), and played 17:22 at 5 on 5, a full minute more than Morrissey, and 4 minutes more than DeMelo.

And then there's last night, where he led the Jets in 5 on 5 ice time with 17:25. He delivered an xGoals % of 32.6.

5 on 5 ice time last night:
Beaulieu, 17:25
Pionk, 15:49.
Forbort, 15.16.
Morrissey, 15:12.
Stanley, 14:18.
DeMelo, 11:28.

By the numbers, he's been Morrissey's worst partner and the only defender with worse Corsi or xGoals numbers this season is Niku.

This isn't a meme about how bad he is, it is me questioning why he's being deployed like he's playing great. His results have gotten worse and his ice time is climbing. I don't get it.

What's the metric for kill plays that Maurice was talking about? Because that seems like a good one to judge him by. Beaulieu is a pretty solid one on one defender. He can win his fair share of battles. I noticed that he made Gaudreau a little nervous a couple of times going into the corners, because shifty Johnny doesn't like contact. BooBoo gets a little scrambly at times in rotations, that would be a weakness I see. But he's also a regular part of this PK which is working well.

I am not convinced there as is much validity to xGoals as posters present. I certainly wouldn't start an argument on it. If you use +/- or PDO he is closer to the top. Not that those are the ultimate stats either, but they are all cumulative. Where's the discrepancy?

Anyone expecting Beaulieu to suddenly fall out of the lineup is probably not in tune with this team. He's a part of it. First pairing might be over his head, but he's been in that role before.

Ideally I'd like to see De Melo back with Morrissey, if they can be more consistent then they were. I didn't mind Stanley-Beaulieu but that's put your two biggest hitters together. That's where Beaulieu can offset Josh.

I'm hoping Samberg-Poolman can get some practice in together, maybe form a 4th pair, so that Stanley and Samberg are essentially competing internally.

Niku should be on the taxi squad if the coach can't trust to play regular minutes. Every other d-man has earned some degree of trust from Maurice. Beaulieu included.

There's no way we are waving multiple players to get Heinola in. Let him play 25 minutes with the Moose, and keep growing as a hockey player. There may be some European tendencies he has picked up that the Jets want to clean up before he hits the ice as a pro again.

I'm happy we have enough depth this year to at least have a discussion about who deserves to play.

 

[HannuJ]

________________________________________________

Totally agree with you @Tommigun and we would love to have both Myers and Chiarot right now. You can't seem to make some of these posters happy, and appreciate a good thing while you have it, until their gone, and then it's too late, and they all cry about our poor defence right now.

Give this Beaulieu a chance --he's developing fine right now.

Myers is an awful contract and Chiarot was the icing king. no exit passes.

 

[Whileee]

Simple answer. It is because the coach is incompetent.

I thought we assessed coaches based on their records around here. Now I'm confused.


Actually, the issue for me is playing Beaulieu at all. I sort of wonder whether it's because they are playing the Flames and Maurice thinks he needs the muscle. Or maybe it's just to get his expansion draft games in (seems doubtful).

 

[Whileee]

What's the metric for kill plays that Maurice was talking about? Because that seems like a good one to judge him by. Beaulieu is a pretty solid one on one defender. He can win his fair share of battles. I noticed that he made Gaudreau a little nervous a couple of times going into the corners, because shifty Johnny doesn't like contact. BooBoo gets a little scrambly at times in rotations, that would be a weakness I see. But he's also a regular part of this PK which is working well.

I am not convinced there as is much validity to xGoals as posters present. I certainly wouldn't start an argument on it. If you use +/- or PDO he is closer to the top. Not that those are the ultimate stats either, but they are all cumulative. Where's the discrepancy?

Anyone expecting Beaulieu to suddenly fall out of the lineup is probably not in tune with this team. He's a part of it. First pairing might be over his head, but he's been in that role before.

Ideally I'd like to see De Melo back with Morrissey, if they can be more consistent then they were. I didn't mind Stanley-Beaulieu but that's put your two biggest hitters together. That's where Beaulieu can offset Josh.

I'm hoping Samberg-Poolman can get some practice in together, maybe form a 4th pair, so that Stanley and Samberg are essentially competing internally.

Niku should be on the taxi squad if the coach can't trust to play regular minutes. Every other d-man has earned some degree of trust from Maurice. Beaulieu included.

There's no way we are waving multiple players to get Heinola in. Let him play 25 minutes with the Moose, and keep growing as a hockey player. There may be some European tendencies he has picked up that the Jets want to clean up before he hits the ice as a pro again.

I'm happy we have enough depth this year to at least have a discussion about who deserves to play.

Killing plays should result in less zone time and fewer scoring chances against. So if Beaulieu is good at stopping plays (I don't see it), then he must be especially bad at all the other parts of the game (transition defense, positioning, puck movement).

 

[JetsUK]

yea some funny superstitions.

A craft that is so interesting. Very much like the trades where you need to apprentice under a journeyman so allot of lessons passed on.

Yep. Imagining John, Paul and George sitting round the studio humming and John says:

"Ya know, Love Me Do hit number one with a bullet. Let's write it again, 400 times, and call it a day. Except maybe we'll move Ringo up to lead guitar, bass and vocals, because he blocks screaming fans like nobody's business, and he's a heckuva guy in the room."

 

[Jack722]

My issue with Beaulieu is that he doesn't seem very good at controlling the play. He'll rarely be the guy to pull the puck back and slow the game down for a moment to let the team get their bearings. He plays a bit of a frantic game, to my eye.

I remember a play a couple of games ago where Tkatchuk was carrying the puck into our zone, and Beaulieu had backed way off of him at the blue line. Fortunately Tkatchuk pushed the puck too far ahead (he might've been poke checked). Beaulieu now had to quickly recognize this and step up to the puck... he did so, but he didn't seem to realize that he also had Morrissey wide open on his right, and our opposite winger wide open on our blue line. Instead of corralling the puck and laying it off to one of our guys, he just chopped it back out to center ice where Calgary regained possession.

 

[Jet]

Myers is an awful contract and Chiarot was the icing king. no exit passes.

Again with the Chiarot icing king. Over his last couple of seasons with the Jets that was simply not true.

There is a site that records icings for and against with a player on the ice and he was better in that metric than a bunch of other Jets.

 

[ps241]

I thought we assessed coaches based on their records around here. Now I'm confused.


Actually, the issue for me is playing Beaulieu at all. I sort of wonder whether it's because they are playing the Flames and Maurice thinks he needs the muscle. Or maybe it's just to get his expansion draft games in (seems doubtful).

That very interesting Maurice, DeBoer, Tippet round table was insightful and a window into veteran coaches viewpoints.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

After watching on tape delay that was a really enjoyable game last night. Fun when we are in a stretch of a few games where we are on and our opponent is struggling.

Winning >>>> Losing.

Scheif is trying to adapt to not playing a very predictable attack game with Connor and Wheels but right now I think its good to shake it up and let him work with our teams best line driver and one of our top defensive forwards. They play way better in our end and in transition and its forcing Mark out of his comfort zone on the attack which is good I think. His energy level has seemed very different over the past two games. I think he was in a rut and this is a nice forced change.

Oddly I am always happiest when our bottom six is kicking ass it seems like when that happens our entire teams follows suit.

Our PK seems to be playing better although we need to stress test it against the Leafs and the Oilers for me to trust it. I like the forward parings of Copp Lowry (dah) and Appleton Lewis.

Take the wins when they come and its especially good to get off to a good start with this short a season. Hard to believe but we are 3 games away from the quarter season mark.

I don't like the long layoffs when we are on a roll............ we tend to come out dopy.

Happy Friday peeps

In spite of the compressed sched we have already had two 3 day breaks and are now in a 4 day break.

We lost 3-1 to TML coming out of the first break, 4-1 to Van out of the 2nd break. I'm hoping the arrival of PLD provides a spark that will prevent a loss out of the 3rd break.

 

[truck]

What's the metric for kill plays that Maurice was talking about? Because that seems like a good one to judge him by. Beaulieu is a pretty solid one on one defender. He can win his fair share of battles. I noticed that he made Gaudreau a little nervous a couple of times going into the corners, because shifty Johnny doesn't like contact. BooBoo gets a little scrambly at times in rotations, that would be a weakness I see. But he's also a regular part of this PK which is working well.

I am not convinced there as is much validity to xGoals as posters present. I certainly wouldn't start an argument on it. If you use +/- or PDO he is closer to the top. Not that those are the ultimate stats either, but they are all cumulative. Where's the discrepancy?

Anyone expecting Beaulieu to suddenly fall out of the lineup is probably not in tune with this team. He's a part of it. First pairing might be over his head, but he's been in that role before.

Ideally I'd like to see De Melo back with Morrissey, if they can be more consistent then they were. I didn't mind Stanley-Beaulieu but that's put your two biggest hitters together. That's where Beaulieu can offset Josh.

I'm hoping Samberg-Poolman can get some practice in together, maybe form a 4th pair, so that Stanley and Samberg are essentially competing internally.

Niku should be on the taxi squad if the coach can't trust to play regular minutes. Every other d-man has earned some degree of trust from Maurice. Beaulieu included.

There's no way we are waving multiple players to get Heinola in. Let him play 25 minutes with the Moose, and keep growing as a hockey player. There may be some European tendencies he has picked up that the Jets want to clean up before he hits the ice as a pro again.

I'm happy we have enough depth this year to at least have a discussion about who deserves to play.

PDO tells you that the team has had some puck luck with him on the ice, and that would be reflected in his +/-.
They are probably the two worst stats for measuring player's effectiveness over a small sample.

xGoals actually factors in things that he contributes to, like shot volumes for and against, and shot locations.

I'm not trying to litigate his play though, I'm simply puzzled as to why a player who is visibility struggling and putting up the worst results on the team keeps getting more and more ice time.

 

[voyageur]

Killing plays should result in less zone time and fewer scoring chances against. So if Beaulieu is good at stopping plays (I don't see it), then he must be especially bad at all the other parts of the game (transition defense, positioning, puck movement).
View attachment 393307

See I always wonder about that. Beaulieu leads the team in d-zone starts. And you can draw a parallel between d-zone starts and Corsi in our defense. More d-zone starts the lower the CF%. That's usually the rule. With exceptions for guys like Lowry. For visual reference you would see that Beaulieu is out in the defensive zone in every game when we have a lead. That's usually a time when the team is defending more than attacking. So you would expect more shots against, which I believe is one of the components of xGoals. The stats tell me Beaulieu is a positive in GF/GA even strength, which is net positive for the player, no? Then you add in the 7.2 GA/60 SH, at 2:23 per game, which is respectable, and declining with every game So I wonder if the advanced stats in his case are being manipulated for a self serving argument. I'd like to see broader stats, including those kill stats, one of one battles, to have a better understanding of why this player is favoured by the coach. I don't think this picture is being painted here. I'm not seeing the awful player being described here. I see mistakes, but I rarely read positives, which I think is because this board is heavily weighted to young players, especially young skill players, without a proper understanding of roles. No arguments here that Stanley has been positive, but he's also been more sheltered with his minutes/matchups. The true test for him will come on the road, where he can not be sheltered.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am at peace with Samberg getting big minutes in the AHL to start. I think once the AHL season starts there will be less angst because the young guys will be getting minutes.

As far as the rest goes injuries always present opportunities especially in the D core. Maybe late in the season things look quite different.

Right now the team is winning and coaches never f*** with winning team.

Both our prized young D prospects will be making an impact in the NHL and it could be as soon as this season for at least one of them as injuries occur.

Rebuilding our D corps requires Samberg and Heinola to move up the depth charts sooner rather than later. It isn't just about the fact that we need improvement now. It is also that an inability to move up now will suggest a lower peak to their careers. Samberg in particular, being already 22 and having 3 full years of NCAA under his belt, needs to 'arrive' this season. If he can't outperform Stanley and Beaulieu now that says something about his likely ceiling.

If Maurice can't deal with more than 1 rookie per season the rebuild of our D corps is just going to take too long. If our prized prospects can't take a job from some of our bottom pairing Dmen then they are never going to be the difference makers we need.

 

[Romang67]

See I always wonder about that. Beaulieu leads the team in d-zone starts. And you can draw a parallel between d-zone starts and Corsi in our defense. More d-zone starts the lower the CF%. That's usually the rule. With exceptions for guys like Lowry. For visual reference you would see that Beaulieu is out in the defensive zone in every game when we have a lead. That's usually a time when the team is defending more than attacking. So you would expect more shots against, which I believe is one of the components of xGoals. The stats tell me Beaulieu is a positive in GF/GA even strength, which is net positive for the player, no? Then you add in the 7.2 GA/60 SH, at 2:23 per game, which is respectable, and declining with every game So I wonder if the advanced stats in his case are being manipulated for a self serving argument. I'd like to see broader stats, including those kill stats, one of one battles, to have a better understanding of why this player is favoured by the coach. I don't think this picture is being painted here. I'm not seeing the awful player being described here. I see mistakes, but I rarely read positives, which I think is because this board is heavily weighted to young players, especially young skill players, without a proper understanding of roles. No arguments here that Stanley has been positive, but he's also been more sheltered with his minutes/matchups. The true test for him will come on the road, where he can not be sheltered.

Beaulieu is last among our regular D-men in DZ starts / 60.