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GDT: UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

MMC

MMC

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Date: November 11, 2023
Venue: Madison Square Garden
City: New York City, New York
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: ESPNews, PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
Interim Heavyweight Championship bout: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
Women's Strawweight bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern
Lightweight bout: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Featherweight bout: Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPNNews)

Flyweight bout: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
Women's Strawweight bout: Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez
Lightweight bout: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Lightweight bout: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+)

Lightweight bout: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen
Bantamweight bout: John Castaneda vs. Kyung-ho Kang
Flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas
Featherweight bout: Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers​
Click to read more...
 
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m9

m9

m9
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Tough call in the main event - just hoping for a fun fight as these are two of my favorite fighters. Going to lean Pereira here - Prochazka gets hit a bit too much and if this is a firefight I just think Pereira is more durable.

I think Aspinall is a favorite v Pavlovich but I'm riding with Pavlovich here. I've said it a few times but he's very quietly on a Francis Ngannou trajectory early in his career and I'm not picking against someone who can turn the lights out like that. Aspinall is certainly faster with better movement in there but good luck avoiding Pavlovich's power.

Andrade v Dern is relevant and the other two main card fights are fun. Main card is lacking a bit for a big card, that's for sure.

As for the prelims.. it's not like they're awful but again you just expect a bit more for a big card. One more big main card fight and you have one of those other fights dropped down to the prelim headliner and I'm feeling better about this one. Some semi-interesting prospects all over but nothing jumping out. I do think Joshua Van is a pretty fun guy to watch.
 

Moncherry

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Feb 5, 2010
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I'm a little bewildered by the amount of people who think that Pereira is the clear favourite. I'm leaning Jiri myself, but I think it could be a toss-up for either fighter.

m9 said:
Tough call in the main event - just hoping for a fun fight as these are two of my favorite fighters. Going to lean Pereira here - Prochazka gets hit a bit too much and if this is a firefight I just think Pereira is more durable.
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I think it's the opposite. Prochazka has proven his durability in the UFC to a much greater extent. He's looked like he's been in trouble on multiple occasions, but still managed to come back every time. Even in his fight against Glover where it wasn't going well for him, he still managed to hang around and pull out an incredible late submission. Which raises another point, Jiri probably has more paths to victory.

Pereira got absolutely flatlined by Izzy not too long ago, while Jiri has survived more wars with arguably harder hitters (at least in MMA). Not that I'm doubting that Pereira can knock him out, but I'm still a little disappointed by how he seemingly had a gassed Blachowicz on the ropes, and then just sort of faded away for the rest of the fight instead of finishing him.

I can envision a similar scenario to the second (or fourth) fight against Adesanya where it looks as though Pereira has Prochazka on the verge of being finished, and then Jiri pulls out an incredible finish out of no where.
 
m9

m9

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Moncherry said:
I'm a little bewildered by the amount of people who think that Pereira is the clear favourite. I'm leaning Jiri myself, but I think it could be a toss-up for either fighter.
Click to expand...

Eh, the fight is essentially a pick-em which usually means you can make a pretty compelling case for either side. I also think Pereira is a bit more popular on social media so you might see a bit more of his side out there.

Moncherry said:
I think it's the opposite. Prochazka has proven his durability in the UFC to a much greater extent. He's looked like he's been in trouble on multiple occasions, but still managed to come back every time. Even in his fight against Glover where it wasn't going well for him, he still managed to hang around and pull out an incredible late submission. Which raises another point, Jiri probably has more paths to victory.

Pereira got absolutely flatlined by Izzy not too long ago, while Jiri has survived more wars with arguably harder hitters (at least in MMA). Not that I'm doubting that Pereira can knock him out, but I'm still a little disappointed by how he seemingly had a gassed Blachowicz on the ropes, and then just sort of faded away for the rest of the fight instead of finishing him.

I can envision a similar scenario to the second (or fourth) fight against Adesanya where it looks as though Pereira has Prochazka on the verge of being finished, and then Jiri pulls out an incredible finish out of no where.
Click to expand...

So just to be clear - this is definitely a fight that can go either way. Not saying it's an easy or obvious win at all for Pereira.

Not sure if pointing to the submission over Glover is another "path to victory". That was basically an exhaustion submission - if I got Glover's back at that point he would have tapped to me. Neither of these guys are very likely to get a sub. I do think Pereira has a few advantages here. Glover as his training partner is the biggest as he's incredibly smart and fought Jiri recently. I also like that's he's been more active and not coming off a brutal injury.

But those are really all I've got in terms of a tiebreaker. Really close fight and either guy could go down at any time.
 

Moncherry

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m9 said:
Eh, the fight is essentially a pick-em which usually means you can make a pretty compelling case for either side. I also think Pereira is a bit more popular on social media so you might see a bit more of his side out there.



So just to be clear - this is definitely a fight that can go either way. Not saying it's an easy or obvious win at all for Pereira.

Not sure if pointing to the submission over Glover is another "path to victory". That was basically an exhaustion submission - if I got Glover's back at that point he would have tapped to me. Neither of these guys are very likely to get a sub. I do think Pereira has a few advantages here. Glover as his training partner is the biggest as he's incredibly smart and fought Jiri recently. I also like that's he's been more active and not coming off a brutal injury.

But those are really all I've got in terms of a tiebreaker. Really close fight and either guy could go down at any time.
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Well do you see Pereira managing to do that to a grappler of Glover's calibre? I don't.
That's what I mean, Jiri is more well-rounded. Not saying he is likely to go for a submission, but it's an area where I think he has the clear advantage and an option that could be available to him, less so for Pereira.
 
m9

m9

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Moncherry said:
Well do you see Pereira managing to do that to a grappler of Glover's calibre? I don't.
That's what I mean, Jiri is more well-rounded. Not saying he is likely to go for a submission, but it's an area where I think he has the clear advantage and an option that could be available to him, less so for Pereira.
Click to expand...

I guess I just don't really see Jiri being any more well-rounded. Both are elite strikers who don't offer much on the ground.
 
16Skippy

16Skippy

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Sep 12, 2009
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The main card looks really good to me. It's crazy to think how active Poatan has been, this will be his 4th fight in just under a year! As long as there's no fluke injury or something this fight should be nuts.

Pavlovich-Aspinall could be special too. When else will we ever see two former top tier prospects get to a title shot at the same time?

Andrade-Dern should be fun even if it gets sloppy.

Frevola-St. Denis should be good but yea surprised they didn't go with a more well known pair.

Lopes is awesome, glad he's getting some PPV main card spotlight.
 
bov

bov

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I favored Jiri and Aspinall initially, but neither of them appears to be in their peak physical condition at the moment, understandably.

I'll still take Jiri but it's a coin flip for me. But now I'm thinking Pavlovich gets it done.

St. Denis is an animal, that fight will be insane and I'm really looking forward to it. Have to take him in this one.

Not too many confident picks on this card.
 
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m9

m9

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I don't think I've ever been more wrong about a UFC prospect than Lopes. His resume looked awful pre-ufc but he's been awesome.

Prelims were fun too.
 
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Tofveve

Tofveve

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Colby has tried so hard to be McGregor. I guess he knew that's where the money is. Good not great.
 
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