WJC: U.S. WJC Discussion

[Evil Doctor]

Okay, I've been working out the permutations of the future of the Americans in this tournament. No surprise that their shot at the medal round is sitting on a razor's edge, but surprisingly they are the only team left in the pool that has a shot at catching Canada for first. Now all this is assuming that Finland and Canada beat Denmark (I know, not a stretch) If the US can beat the Czechs and Canada in regulation, then they claim first. If the US loses to the Czech Republic, they are out, doesn't matter if they beat Canada.

So the key games coming up for Pool B are...

United States vs. Czech Republic

Czech Republic vs. Finland

 

[Rabid Ranger]

It's so hard to judge defensemen without watching the game in person. Television usually only shows the the play around the puck. Watching the game in person, you can see the plays away from the puck which are, imho, every bit as important if not more so - because there are a lot more of them (plays away from the puck). When defenseman get involved in an offensive attack, rush the puck, or marshall the PP, they are particulary visible (esp on TV). That's why guys like Merrill have had such high profiles- because in addition to being defensively sound (typically), he is exceptionally poised and strong offensively. That being said, I didn't notice him much in the Finland game on TV. Maybe he had a good game, but in a 1-4 loss I highly doubt that anyone can convincingly arugue the US team played well or stood out in a good way - certainly not the defensive corps. Not only did the defense fail to shut down the Finns, they failed to contribute offensively. Not much good can be said about that. If you're not going to be good at one, you have to be amazing at the other, and the USA defense was not good at either last night.

As I predicted last year on this forum, and will regrettably predict again this year - without experienced defensemen against Canadian and Russan attacks (vis a vis the CHL), the US Team's chances for goald are slim. With a few CHL invites to the Lake Placid and Camrose camps, I thought this year would mark a return to sanity for the sake of US pride. I was wrong, and we still have no one other than Tinordi with more than a full season's worth of experience playing against the top forwards in the Word. Concidence that he was the MVP for the US last night? Maybe, but assuming the US gets past the Czech Republic (which they should), they are at a self-imposed disadvantage heading into the matchup against Canada. Strome, Stone, Jenner, Hamilton have all been successfully handled by other American CHL players who are not in this tournament. Same with both their goaltenders. Only recently have guys like Campbell and Miller been introduced to these players, but USAH thinks that doesn't matter.

We'll see if their strategy holds out, but Wedgewood is coming off a 26-save shut-out with an assist against the Czech Republic. He's hotter than Visentin, he's hotter than Campbell, he's hotter than Gibson, and he's playing in his own barn. When the competition's goalie gets as many points as your forwards, that's scary. If he's in net vs the US, we can start planning for next year during the anthems.

I tend to agree with much of what you're saying (at least the gist of it), but hesitate to make this a CHL/Non-CHL issue. IMO, the U.S. didn't have a ton of options-at least on defense this year. I mean, would the likes of Austin Levi make that much of a differance? I don't think so. Sometimes it's just a bad mix. That said, the U.S. isn't out of it. They have to find some jump though against the Czechs leading into the match-up with Canada. I hope Blais is putting them through the paces today....

 

[Leaf Rocket]

It's so hard to judge defensemen without watching the game in person. Television usually only shows the the play around the puck. Watching the game in person, you can see the plays away from the puck which are, imho, every bit as important if not more so - because there are a lot more of them (plays away from the puck). When defenseman get involved in an offensive attack, rush the puck, or marshall the PP, they are particulary visible (esp on TV). That's why guys like Merrill have had such high profiles- because in addition to being defensively sound (typically), he is exceptionally poised and strong offensively. That being said, I didn't notice him much in the Finland game on TV. Maybe he had a good game, but in a 1-4 loss I highly doubt that anyone can convincingly arugue the US team played well or stood out in a good way - certainly not the defensive corps. Not only did the defense fail to shut down the Finns, they failed to contribute offensively. Not much good can be said about that. If you're not going to be good at one, you have to be amazing at the other, and the USA defense was not good at either last night.

As I predicted last year on this forum, and will regrettably predict again this year - without experienced defensemen against Canadian and Russan attacks (vis a vis the CHL), the US Team's chances for goald are slim. With a few CHL invites to the Lake Placid and Camrose camps, I thought this year would mark a return to sanity for the sake of US pride. I was wrong, and we still have no one other than Tinordi with more than a full season's worth of experience playing against the top forwards in the Word. Concidence that he was the MVP for the US last night? Maybe, but assuming the US gets past the Czech Republic (which they should), they are at a self-imposed disadvantage heading into the matchup against Canada. Strome, Stone, Jenner, Hamilton have all been successfully handled by other American CHL players who are not in this tournament. Same with both their goaltenders. Only recently have guys like Campbell and Miller been introduced to these players, but USAH thinks that doesn't matter.

We'll see if their strategy holds out, but Wedgewood is coming off a 26-save shut-out with an assist against the Czech Republic. He's hotter than Visentin, he's hotter than Campbell, he's hotter than Gibson, and he's playing in his own barn. When the competition's goalie gets as many points as your forwards, that's scary. If he's in net vs the US, we can start planning for next year during the anthems.

thanks for the great recap bud, highly appreciate it.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Okay, I've been working out the permutations of the future of the Americans in this tournament. No surprise that their shot at the medal round is sitting on a razor's edge, but surprisingly they are the only team left in the pool that has a shot at catching Canada for first. Now all this is assuming that Finland and Canada beat Denmark (I know, not a stretch) If the US can beat the Czechs and Canada in regulation, then they claim first. If the US loses to the Czech Republic, they are out, doesn't matter if they beat Canada.

So the key games coming up for Pool B are...

United States vs. Czech Republic

Czech Republic vs. Finland

Not exactly Evil (see the Bold above) but very close. Everything below is based on :

- Wins in REGULATION / if any of the games go to O.T. it is just too messy;
- Denmark losing ALL of its games.

1) If the U.S. loses to the Czechs, they are done.

2) If the U.S. wins their 2 remaining games they win the pool - ASSUMING the Czechs beat the Fins.

3) If the U.S. wins their 2 remaining games AND the Fins beat the Czechs then:

- The U.S. would have to beat Canada by 5 (or more) goals to win the pool. Anything less and the U.S. finishes 2nd.

4) If the U.S. beats the Czechs; the U.S. loses to Canada; and the Czechs beat the Fins then:

i) Canada would be first;
ii) The Czechs, Fins and U.S. would be fighting for places 2 thru 4 which would be determined by point differential between the 3 clubs.
iii) The Point Differential currently sits at : (U.S. -3), (Finland +3).
iv) The U.S. not only needs to beat the Czechs tomorrow, they need to try and win by as many goals as possible.

5) If the U.S. beats the Czechs; the U.S. loses to Canada; and the Fins beat the Czechs then:

- Canada finishes 1st.
- The Fins 2nd.
- The U.S 3rd.

This is an interesting year - for a change. Most years things don't get interesting until NYE.

Feel free to correct me if any of the above is wrong.

Can anyone else come up with any other variations?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The biggest thing I can see with this US team so far is they don't want to play a simple smash game. It seems they want to make the extra pass and make everything look pretty. What they need to do is start shooting everything on the net and crashing it and cycling downlow then taking it hard to the net.

They have been far too pretty and it has cost them

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The biggest thing I can see with this US team so far is they don't want to play a simple smash game. It seems they want to make the extra pass and make everything look pretty. What they need to do is start shooting everything on the net and crashing it and cycling downlow then taking it hard to the net.

They have been far too pretty and it has cost them

I totally agree. I noticed several times a U.S. forward would gain the zone with a nice move and instead of driving to the net with determination would get stood up by a Finnish defender because they tried a through the legs move (or whatever). Also, when they were in the offensive zone they would cycle the hell out of the puck but instead of throwing it on net would try fancy passes through a dozen sticks. They really need to simplify their game and rely on their physical ability more.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

And it doesn't matter if it is a CHL player like Etem or a NCAA guy like Coyle they all seem to want to be too pretty.


Compare that to Canada who really has simplified there 5 on 5 game with alot of cycling downlow and drives to the net leading to some simple goals like Stone's first goal last night. They haven't changed their style at all they keep doing it

 

[Rabid Ranger]

And it doesn't matter if it is a CHL player like Etem or a NCAA guy like Coyle they all seem to want to be too pretty.


Compare that to Canada who really has simplified there 5 on 5 game with alot of cycling downlow and drives to the net leading to some simple goals like Stone's first goal last night. They haven't changed their style at all they keep doing it

The interesting thing to me is USA Hockey has kind of branched off from the typical "North American" style it's utilized for most of its existence. It's more of a hybrid of Canadian and European styles, and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

 

[SabresBillsBuffalo]

Beat the Czechs and we should be good.

 

[doakacola*]

that article with Prince is simply amazing. it really does show light into the bias that USA Hockey still oozes. it is a joke that Price didnt make this squad, but to not even give the kid a fair shake, and play him for 7-8 shifts then scratch him the next game, yeah I can see how fair that was.

Prince has every right to be upset, and to be honest I think he let them off the hook to easy. anyone still believing that USA Hockey is fair, just really needs to wake the hell up because it simply is not.

I guess what bothers me the most isnt the fact that Prince didnt make the team, but how he did not get a fair shake, even when he was told to his face that he would. do these clowns not realize that stuff like this will get out? do they not realize that they are only making things worse with CHL Americans and now it could stretch to NHL teams because they feel that they arent doing things fair and in the best interest of winning.

I love Bryan Murray pretty much calling out the USNDP bias, once GM's and VP's of NHL clubs start stating these facts, its time for some of the top people at USA Hockey to start getting their heads chopped off. USA Hockey needs new blood at the executive level as this stone age mentality is only making things worse. instead of me enjoying this tournament this kind of crap is being discussed yet again and will only get worse with more kids heading to the CHL.

Shane Prince deserved better....

.........and in 5 years we will wonder why more of these kids who make it to the pros are turning down offers to play for the US in the World Championships...because many who come through the CHL route have and will continue to hold grudges towards USA Hockey. Cant wait for USA Hockey to call on Jared Knight in 3 years when they are desperate for players at the WC!! thats going to be priceless.

Take a look at the 2004 US Gold Medal Team. No Buff or Pavelski, figure that. US always misses a few players.

 

[Rally Donkey]

....IMO, the U.S. didn't have a ton of options-at least on defense this year. I mean, would the likes of Austin Levi make that much of a differance? I don't think so. Sometimes it's just a bad mix...

The thing I'm disappointed in is that we'll never know the answer to that question- whether or not American defensemen's experience in CHL can be a game-changer in this tournament. I think Tinordi's performance last night lends a little more credence to my argument than yours. He was solid and was rewarded with the MVP for the US team. Levi just happened to be the only other CHL dman invited to either of this year's camps. Not saying Levi could singlehandedly reverse a blow-out, but I do believe as I've always held on this forum that the US needs balance and more experience/familiarity with our opponents and he was on the ice the last time the US beat Finland (in Lake Placid). There's really no telling what a stand-out performance on a PK can do to change momentum in a game. If it happens at the right time, I believe it definitely can make a difference. The US only invited two defensemen from the CHL (none from the Dub or the Q). Balance is 2 or3 out of 7 - not 1 out of seven, and the US is off balance right now.

Similarly, I'm can't prove Jared Knight, Shane Prince, or Stefan Noesen would have made a difference last night, but I sure as heck believe they would especially against Canada- again, we'll never know because this ship has sailed. As an expat, I am rooting for the US, but as someone who watches a whole lot of OHL games, I will also continue to look for American players who shine in spite of being ignored by USAH. I think we'll beat the Czech Rep, but I don't see this team getting past Canada if they have Wedgewood in net.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The thing I'm disappointed in is that we'll never know the answer to that question- whether or not American defensemen's experience in CHL can be a game-changer in this tournament. I think Tinordi's performance last night lends a little more credence to my argument than yours. He was solid and was rewarded with the MVP for the US team. Levi just happened to be the only other CHL dman invited to either of this year's camps. Not saying Levi could singlehandedly reverse a blow-out, but I do believe as I've always held on this forum that the US needs balance and more experience/familiarity with our opponents and he was on the ice the last time the US beat Finland (in Lake Placid). There's really no telling what a stand-out performance on a PK can do to change momentum in a game. If it happens at the right time, I believe it definitely can make a difference. The US only invited two defensemen from the CHL (none from the Dub or the Q). Balance is 2 or3 out of 7 - not 1 out of seven, and the US is off balance right now.

Similarly, I'm can't prove Jared Knight, Shane Prince, or Stefan Noesen would have made a difference last night, but I sure as heck believe they would especially against Canada- again, we'll never know because this ship has sailed. As an expat, I am rooting for the US, but as someone who watches a whole lot of OHL games, I will also continue to look for American players who shine in spite of being ignored by USAH. I think we'll beat the Czech Rep, but I don't see this team getting past Canada if they have Wedgewood in net.

Okay, you bring up Tinordi, but what other CHL d-men would you have considered? I looked at the rosters, not much to choose from (especially with how Ebert stagnated).

 

[doakacola*]

Outside of Trouba, the US doesn't have any quality PMD's. Forbort has next to zero puck skills and Merrill is overrated.

 

[NTDP]

The thing I'm disappointed in is that we'll never know the answer to that question- whether or not American defensemen's experience in CHL can be a game-changer in this tournament. I think Tinordi's performance last night lends a little more credence to my argument than yours. He was solid and was rewarded with the MVP for the US team. Levi just happened to be the only other CHL dman invited to either of this year's camps. Not saying Levi could singlehandedly reverse a blow-out, but I do believe as I've always held on this forum that the US needs balance and more experience/familiarity with our opponents and he was on the ice the last time the US beat Finland (in Lake Placid). There's really no telling what a stand-out performance on a PK can do to change momentum in a game. If it happens at the right time, I believe it definitely can make a difference. The US only invited two defensemen from the CHL (none from the Dub or the Q). Balance is 2 or3 out of 7 - not 1 out of seven, and the US is off balance right now.

Similarly, I'm can't prove Jared Knight, Shane Prince, or Stefan Noesen would have made a difference last night, but I sure as heck believe they would especially against Canada- again, we'll never know because this ship has sailed. As an expat, I am rooting for the US, but as someone who watches a whole lot of OHL games, I will also continue to look for American players who shine in spite of being ignored by USAH. I think we'll beat the Czech Rep, but I don't see this team getting past Canada if they have Wedgewood in net.

I just had a conversation with someone about this...Any one of the NCAA players playing on the U.S. roster could make the jump and play major junior. They just chose to stay in the states. The margin of skill between the NCAA guys that we have on this team and the american CHL players that were left off the roster is very slim. Remember the majority of canadians only get to see the american players that are playing in the CHL. They don't watch much college hockey or U.S. junior hockey, so the only time that they get to see guys like Kyle Rau, Coyle, Zucker...ect is in these international tourmanents. And if they have a bad game like they did against the Fins, then they all asume they are duds and the U.S. CHL players would make the world of a difference. Don't take this post the wrong way, i'm NOT pro USHL/NCAA and anti Major Junior.

 

[BJD]

Outside of Trouba, the US doesn't have any quality PMD's. Forbort has next to zero puck skills and Merrill is overrated.

forbort didn't look good last night thats for sure but merrill being overrated i dunno about. he was voted one of team usa's top 3 players by the coaches last year

 

[krazyhawk]

Outside of Trouba, the US doesn't have any quality PMD's. Forbort has next to zero puck skills and Merrill is overrated.

I thought Clendenning was one of your better PMDs.You dont include him??

 

[Plub]

I thought Clendenning was one of your better PMDs.You dont include him??

That was not the case against Finland. I thought he played a rather poor game.

 

[Rally Donkey]

I thought Clendenning was one of your better PMDs.You dont include him??

Not that Clendenning isn't a good PMD, but I don't think that's the US team's weakness (not counting the Finland game). I think we have too many puck-moving, offensive D and not enough shutdown D, hence we end up on the downside of a 1-4 game against the Finns. US has maybe the strongest corps of PMDs including Clendenning, but that didn't do much for us last night, did it?

 

[Rally Donkey]

....The margin of skill between the NCAA guys that we have on this team and the american CHL players that were left off the roster is very slim. Remember the majority of canadians only get to see the american players that are playing in the CHL. They don't watch much college hockey or U.S. junior hockey, so the only time that they get to see guys like Kyle Rau, Coyle, Zucker...ect is in these international tourmanents. And if they have a bad game like they did against the Fins, then they all asume they are duds and the U.S. CHL players would make the world of a difference...

Ok, I agree the margin may be slim, but if you're saying that the Canadian Junior players are at a disadvantage because they don't play against the NCAA/USHL players much, then you and I have a basic differnce of opinion on the quality and quantity of competition between the two countries (surpirise). To me, it's just plain logical that if you play against a guy 3-6 times per year, and you've done that for 3 years, you're going to be more likely to have success against him than someone who's never played against him. I'm not saying at all that the US shouldn't pimp their program- I am saying that if they want to win gold, they need to make smarter, more balanced choices when finalizing their team. We'll see who's right tomorow and Saturday.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I just had a conversation with someone about this...Any one of the NCAA players playing on the U.S. roster could make the jump and play major junior. They just chose to stay in the states. The margin of skill between the NCAA guys that we have on this team and the american CHL players that were left off the roster is very slim. Remember the majority of canadians only get to see the american players that are playing in the CHL. They don't watch much college hockey or U.S. junior hockey, so the only time that they get to see guys like Kyle Rau, Coyle, Zucker...ect is in these international tourmanents. And if they have a bad game like they did against the Fins, then they all asume they are duds and the U.S. CHL players would make the world of a difference. Don't take this post the wrong way, i'm NOT pro USHL/NCAA and anti Major Junior.

It's not only about the skill levels, sometimes it's about the style of play and familiarity (as rwg has been saying). Maybe there is not a huge skill difference between guys like Knight, Prince, Trocheck (although I would tend to disagree) and the NCAA guys that were taken, but I would definitely say that the CHL is a more physical game than the college one. The CHL guys have been playing for 2 and sometimes 3 years against better overall competition (imo) and are more "battle-tested" than some of the kids picked. In a close game like the one against Finland, where the team was not playing it's best, and the going was tough, skill is not the only determining factor and I would have liked to see what a guy like Knight (who's motor never quits) could have done.

A guy that watches the OHL every day told me that the biggest slight was not the forwards that have been mentioned, but goaltender Michael Houser, who has been awesome this year for London. Would have been nice to see what he could have done as well.

Part of me hopes that the US still manages to pull it out with two wins in the next two nights (because the kids on the team that are working their butts off are not to blame), but the other part thinks that the only way the selection process gets changed for the better is if the US doesn't medal, and some heads roll.

 

[Novak Djokovic]

Not exactly Evil (see the Bold above) but very close. Everything below is based on :

- Wins in REGULATION / if any of the games go to O.T. it is just too messy;
- Denmark losing ALL of its games.

1) If the U.S. loses to the Czechs, they are done.

2) If the U.S. wins their 2 remaining games they win the pool - ASSUMING the Czechs beat the Fins.

3) If the U.S. wins their 2 remaining games AND the Fins beat the Czechs then:

- The U.S. would have to beat Canada by 5 (or more) goals to win the pool. Anything less and the U.S. finishes 2nd.

4) If the U.S. beats the Czechs; the U.S. loses to Canada; and the Czechs beat the Fins then:

i) Canada would be first;
ii) The Czechs, Fins and U.S. would be fighting for places 2 thru 4 which would be determined by point differential between the 3 clubs.
iii) The Point Differential currently sits at : (U.S. -3), (Finland +3).
iv) The U.S. not only needs to beat the Czechs tomorrow, they need to try and win by as many goals as possible.

5) If the U.S. beats the Czechs; the U.S. loses to Canada; and the Fins beat the Czechs then:

- Canada finishes 1st.
- The Fins 2nd.
- The U.S 3rd.

This is an interesting year - for a change. Most years things don't get interesting until NYE.

Feel free to correct me if any of the above is wrong.

Can anyone else come up with any other variations?

Wouldn't Canada and the US be tied in points? So... what decides who wins the group?

 

[Novak Djokovic]

Wouldn't Canada and the US be tied in points? So... what decides who wins the group?

Just found out that head-to-head points is the first tie-breaker.

 

[Ward Cornell]

A guy that watches the OHL every day told me that the biggest slight was not the forwards that have been mentioned, but goaltender Michael Houser, who has been awesome this year for London. Would have been nice to see what he could have done as well.

Houser is probably the 3rd best American goalie in the OHL.
But having said that, having invited Houser to the December to battle Gibson and Campbell wouldn't be wrong.
Annoiting the two goalies is a wee bit unusual.

But IMHO the team did go with the two best goalies.

 

[DKH]

It's not only about the skill levels, sometimes it's about the style of play and familiarity (as rwg has been saying). Maybe there is not a huge skill difference between guys like Knight, Prince, Trocheck (although I would tend to disagree) and the NCAA guys that were taken, but I would definitely say that the CHL is a more physical game than the college one. The CHL guys have been playing for 2 and sometimes 3 years against better overall competition (imo) and are more "battle-tested" than some of the kids picked. In a close game like the one against Finland, where the team was not playing it's best, and the going was tough, skill is not the only determining factor and I would have liked to see what a guy like Knight (who's motor never quits) could have done.

A guy that watches the OHL every day told me that the biggest slight was not the forwards that have been mentioned, but goaltender Michael Houser, who has been awesome this year for London. Would have been nice to see what he could have done as well.

Part of me hopes that the US still manages to pull it out with two wins in the next two nights (because the kids on the team that are working their butts off are not to blame), but the other part thinks that the only way the selection process gets changed for the better is if the US doesn't medal, and some heads roll.

Very, very, very good points but you forgot Plymouth's Noesen....unbelievable they left this kid off the team. What a joke.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

It is pretty obvious if you have not went through the NDTP and you go the CHL route you are not going to make Team USA.