Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals/Free Agents 2017-2018 ‎part deux the sequel

[Sensinitis]

I think the plan is to re-sign Turris long-term and have Brown be the 1C by the time Brassard's K expires, with Turris 2C.

Fingers crossed for Brown, but would be a nice plan. Re-signing Brass would be optional and would depend on his price tag I guess.

 

[Engineer]

With the Canadian dollar rising rapidly over the last few months, and if that trend continues, we may just get lucky with a big salary cap increase when we finally need it.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Turris has played his entire career as a Sen at a bargain. He will be looking to cash in on this contract. I would think 6 million is on the lower end of the spectrum, and length will be 6-8 years.

Yup. He is due and suddenly a bunch of posters want him gone.

Deplorable attitude I say, especially considering how great he's been for us.

 

[Micklebot]

Yup. He is due and suddenly a bunch of posters want him gone.

Deplorable attitude I say, especially considering how great he's been for us.

People don't want him gone, they want to keep Stone and Karlsson. The issue is that the guys that they want gone (Phaneuf and Ryan) are difficult to move.

 

[HSF]

major overreaction in here

I don't think people want him gone...more or less if he wants to be 'overpaid' then he is replaceable imo and if there is an upgrade out there avaliable ie a Duchene then u explore it for sure.


Turris is good but he isn't a legit number 1 center

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Its just the reality of pro sports and managing a team in a league with a salary cap and/or internal budget. I'm sure nobody wants to talk down about Turris or say he doesn't deserve to get a contract without a hometown discount.

The most important thing is whats best for the Ottawa Senators, not Kyle Turris. If whats best for each of them aligns then great, if not then we just move on like all the players before him. I just hope that means we're pro-active and don't just intend to let him walk next summer.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

major overreaction in here

I don't think people want him gone...more or less if he wants to be 'overpaid' then he is replaceable imo and if there is an upgrade out there avaliable ie a Duchene then u explore it for sure.


Turris is good but he isn't a legit number 1 center

It's not even about being overpaid. Turris has never disappointed me as a Senator, but we might be approaching a situation where the Senators have to choose a player to move on from.

The entire story is that the Senators **may** have to move out a player because they are approaching a point where they have a lot of money committed. Even if Turris and Stone both sign for 6, and Ceci for 4, which are optimistic amounts, the Senators are at about 70M next year with only 17 players signed.

If we decide to spend to the cap, maybe we're good. But if we're still a budget team and Phaneuf+Ryan aren't moveable in a transaction where we don't take back a lot of cap, we probably need to sell off one of Turris, Hoffman, Stone, or Ceci for futures in order to clear 5M+ in salary from the books for 18-19.

 

[Sens Mile]

I really hope we are considerate of waivered players this year. Only accept players if they make the team, dont force them onto it. So if White needs some maturation, claim someone off waivers rather than force him

 

[HSF]

It's not even about being overpaid. Turris has never disappointed me as a Senator, but we might be approaching a situation where the Senators have to choose a player to move on from.

The entire story is that the Senators **may** have to move out a player because they are approaching a point where they have a lot of money committed. Even if Turris and Stone both sign for 6, and Ceci for 4, which are optimistic amounts, the Senators are at about 70M next year with only 17 players signed.

If we decide to spend to the cap, maybe we're good. But if we're still a budget team and Phaneuf+Ryan aren't moveable in a transaction where we don't take back a lot of cap, we probably need to sell off one of Turris, Hoffman, Stone, or Ceci for futures in order to clear 5M+ in salary from the books for 18-19.

Melnyk has spent before to keep our good players. We also might be able to trade someone like Macarthur if we has a full good season.

But i think these are things you worry about later in the offseason as im sure Dorion already has a plan in terms of how much he can spend and where

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Melnyk has spent before to keep our good players. We also might be able to trade someone like Macarthur if we has a full good season.

But i think these are things you worry about later in the offseason as im sure Dorion already has a plan in terms of how much he can spend and where

This team has spent within a specific budget over the last few years. I don't think paying individual players is an issue. The issue is fitting everything together under whatever our budget might be.

Melnyk isn't going to burst into the room and tell Dorion he isn't allowed to pay Turris 7M but he might not like if paying all the players we have raises to give as a collective causes the Senators to be unable to meet their budget.... Anybody can look at our capfriendly page for 18-19 and see our combined player salary will likely be in the 75M-80M range if we keep everybody going into 18-19.....which again means someone with a big price tag probably has to go.

14 players signed=53M real money salary
UFAs
Turris
Anderson
Borowiecki

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE RFAs
Ceci
Claesson
Stone

Roster spots left to fill....3 (approx 2M combined)

So we're at 55M before signing Turris, Anderson, Borowiecki, Ceci, or Stone. The cap will likely fall at around 77M if it goes up at a similar rate to the last few seasons. If we're a cap team, we're fine. If we have a budget similar to past years, we're going to be under pressure to shave off a big contract and guys like Mac, Phaneuf, and Ryan aren't movable.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

If we re-sign:
2018 - Turris 8x6.5
2018 - Stone 8x6.3
2018- Ceci @5x4.2
2018- Anderson @2x3.1
2018 - Claesson @3x2.1
2018 - Paul @2x.9
2018 - Harpur @2x.9
2019- Brassard @6x5.5
2019- Karlsson @8x10.5
2019- White @2x2.5

We will be able to retain basically the same roster while perhaps losing a Dzingel/Thompson/Burrows/Condon/Claesson or, at most, Smith/MacArthur.

We won't have any wiggle room to add non-ELCs / any sort of high end UFA without shipping off another additional piece, but in terms of keeping the core here while steadily bringing in ELCs I think it's very doable, especially if no one really really chases the money. I feel like I've been pretty reasonable with caphits, but maybe I've been too conservative.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

So we're at 55M before signing Turris, Anderson, Borowiecki, Ceci, or Stone. The cap will likely fall at around 77M if it goes up at a similar rate to the last few seasons. If we're a cap team, we're fine. If we have a budget similar to past years, we're going to be under pressure to shave off a big contract and guys like Mac, Phaneuf, and Ryan aren't movable.

Why do you think Mac's contract is unmovable? If he comes back and gets hurt, I assume his career is over. If he comes back and doesn't get hurt, I don't see why he wouldn't be at least a 40 point guy.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Why do you think Mac's contract is unmovable? If he comes back and gets hurt, I assume his career is over. If he comes back and doesn't get hurt, I don't see why he wouldn't be at least a 40 point guy.

Two reasons.

One, it's simply hard to move out cap in deals that aren't for legit stars without taking cap back.

Two, I think it'll take more than a year of injury free play for Mac to outgrow the red flag of missing the better part of two years due to concussions. I don't think a GM would want to take the risk of acquiring that contract after Mac got re-injured on a fairly pedestrian play in training camp last season.

Personally, from an obvious ignorant non medical perspective (not sure if this surprises anybody but I am not a doctor)....to me as a fan Mac proved enough playing through almost 20 hard fought playoff games for me not to think he's a LTIR case waiting to happen, and for me being willing to accept that that the Sieloff re-injury might have just been a freak coincidence....but a GM can't think that way. They have to evaluate risk, and for a 2nd liner someone with Mac's history presents too much risk at 4.65M for multiple years.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Two reasons.

One, it's simply hard to move out cap in deals that aren't for legit stars without taking cap back.

Two, I think it'll take more than a year of injury free play for Mac to outgrow the red flag of missing the better part of two years due to concussions. I don't think a GM would want to take the risk of acquiring that contract after Mac got re-injured on a fairly pedestrian play in training camp last season.

Personally, from an obvious ignorant non medical perspective (not sure if this surprises anybody but I am not a doctor)....to me as a fan Mac proved enough playing through almost 20 hard fought playoff games for me not to think he's a LTIR case waiting to happen, and for me being willing to accept that that the Sieloff re-injury might have just been a freak coincidence....but a GM can't think that way. They have to evaluate risk, and for a 2nd liner someone with Mac's history presents too much risk at 4.65M for multiple years.

I think you're over-estimating the latent risk of a 12-month healthy Mac + the risk-aversiveness of many NHL GMs.

If Mac plays 82 games posting 18 goals and 41pts, with 4 in 14 in the playoffs, let's say, you don't think a GM or two out there would be willing to take the risk on 2 years of Mac? At best you're gaining a reliable 2nd line forward who, by all accounts, is a gem in the room - and at worst, you're getting a contract to LTIR for 2 years. If the ask is only a mid-round pick, I think there will be no great shortage of interested teams around the league.

My bigger doubt is if they would even ship out Mac, or if they would would just trade Smith + Burrows/Dzingel/Thompson in his place.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think you're over-estimating the latent risk of a 12-month healthy Mac + the risk-aversiveness of many NHL GMs.

If Mac plays 82 games posting 18 goals and 41pts, with 4 in 14 in the playoffs, let's say, you don't think a GM or two out there would be willing to take the risk on 2 years of Mac? At best you're gaining a reliable 2nd line forward who, by all accounts, is a gem in the room - and at worst, you're getting a contract to LTIR for 2 years. If the ask is only a mid-round pick, I think there will be no great shortage of interested teams around the league.

My bigger doubt is if they would even ship out Mac, or if they would would just trade Smith + Burrows/Dzingel/Thompson in his place.

We'll have to agree to disagree about Mac. I don't think a solid healthy season will be enough to convince a GM to take him in a trade.

I get the impression from the way we've allocated our money along with the aggressiveness Dorion exhibited going after "Guy Boucher guys" at the deadline, that there's a directive to craft a roster that Guy Boucher trusts to play four line hockey. Because of that, I don't think the solution will be trying to trade away a combination of veteran bottom 6 players to clear cash because then we'll end up in a similar situation to where we were last season with Guy Boucher unwilling to play his 4th line and double shifting players on the 4th line because he doesn't trust the guys he has available to him.

You also have to keep in mind that for every player you clear away, you have to consider the replacement cost for an NHL body. So even if the team were to move out Thompson+Dzingel+Burrows next season that only really clears up around 4 million which may not be enough, will likely destroy our ability to roll four lines, and 2/3 of those guys will return us very little in a trade.

We could get incredibly lucky and have a bunch of our cheap prospects break out at once who Guy Boucher trusts to replace those bottom 6 guys, but that isn't likely.

I don't think us shedding Mac's contract is realistic, and I don't think we'll go in the direction of trying to shed a combination of bottom 6 players to clear cash.

 

[WadeRedden]

If we re-sign:
...
2018- Ceci @5x4.2
.

If Ceci is looking for a dollar figure above $4m we should probably just move him. His offensive game hasn't materialized the way we thought it would and the only thing he does defensively is 'play minutes.' From a qualitative standpoint, I think he looked lost most of last season and I don't see why he'd improve this year considering he's playing in the same system under under the same coach with (presumably) the same partner. I feel like the only thing he has going for him is that he's a righty.

Why do you think Mac's contract is unmovable? If he comes back and gets hurt, I assume his career is over. If he comes back and doesn't get hurt, I don't see why he wouldn't be at least a 40 point guy.

No GM would ever touch a guy with his medical history, especially considering he's on the wrong side of 30 and is signed longterm at a pretty steep price. Even if Mac comes back and ends up being a 40pt guy a $4.75 in real dollars price tag isn't a bargain and they'd always be worried about the other shoe dropping. If a GM traded for him and he got hurt that's the kind of thing that gets you fired.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Turris isn't good enough to be a number 1 C and he will get paid too much money to be a number 2C for us. A team could use him who have another excellent number 1b C. Unfortunately we dont have that.

Time to say adios when we can.

 

[Liver King]

Jeff Carter does really seem like the perfect fit..hopefully something can materialize

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Jeff Carter does really seem like the perfect fit..hopefully something can materialize

I had an idea for Turris+Phaneuf+Hammond for Gaborik+Carter a few weeks ago....

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=135312443&postcount=537

Outlined in full detail there about why it works so well salary wise. Obviously guts our defense and puts a lot of pressure on Chabot to be the real deal, but it gets us an upgrade down the middle and fixes our salary structure. LA gets two players for one better player and a cap dump.

 

[Sens]

I think you're over-estimating the latent risk of a 12-month healthy Mac + the risk-aversiveness of many NHL GMs.

If Mac plays 82 games posting 18 goals and 41pts, with 4 in 14 in the playoffs, let's say, you don't think a GM or two out there would be willing to take the risk on 2 years of Mac? At best you're gaining a reliable 2nd line forward who, by all accounts, is a gem in the room - and at worst, you're getting a contract to LTIR for 2 years. If the ask is only a mid-round pick, I think there will be no great shortage of interested teams around the league.

My bigger doubt is if they would even ship out Mac, or if they would would just trade Smith + Burrows/Dzingel/Thompson in his place.

MacArthur also has a 10 team NTC... which probably limits the Sens from moving him to bottom feeders (teams with cap space)

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Carter would be perfect fit.

Gives us big body number 1 C who has a few years left until Brown is ready to take over.

There is huge risk in the trade due to age difference between the two but one I feel that would be worth it.

 

[bert]

If this organization is such a mess, that Turris would consider walking away.....then we have much bigger problems than simply losing our 1C.

The odds of him simply walking away are incredibly low.

They really arent. He is a UFA.... This team has a cheap owner and is on a cap crunch. I dont think its very complicated you just have to be a realist. Yea this team has issues big ones the writing is on the wall. Either the organization doesnt make enough money or the owner is floating his business's off the sens and is broke or its a combination. Id bet combination. Staff cuts in hockey ops, marketing head office etc its all there for the eye to see right in the papers, social media etc. Alfie leaving.... come on guys dont be blind to whats happening.

 

[bert]

People don't want him gone, they want to keep Stone and Karlsson. The issue is that the guys that they want gone (Phaneuf and Ryan) are difficult to move.

Thank you.

 

[Tuna99]

They really arent. He is a UFA.... This team has a cheap owner and is on a cap crunch. I dont think its very complicated you just have to be a realist. Yea this team has issues big ones the writing is on the wall. Either the organization doesnt make enough money or the owner is floating his business's off the sens and is broke or its a combination. Id bet combination. Staff cuts in hockey ops, marketing head office etc its all there for the eye to see right in the papers, social media etc. Alfie leaving.... come on guys dont be blind to whats happening.

The Ottaw Senators are bigger then Melnyck but you'll always have a huge segment of the population that supports the strong man and will say it's his team he can do whatever he wants. But when all your top people are leaving, it doesn't look good.

The players might be immune from ownership blabbering, but if Crosby called Melnyck a big mouth you have to imagine our players feel the same way about him.

 

[WadeRedden]

Carter would be perfect fit.

Gives us big body number 1 C who has a few years left until Brown is ready to take over.

There is huge risk in the trade due to age difference between the two but one I feel that would be worth it.

Is there a reason people keep throwing Carter's name around? Why the hell would Los Angeles want to get rid of one of their most productive players who also just happens to be playing on one of the best contracts in the league? If I'm Rob Blake I consider Carter to be an untouchable.

I get that LA has cap issues but unloading Carter to take on a guy like Dion makes no sense imo, especially when you consider they're already a pretty good team that just has a lot of difficulty scoring. Substituting a 30 goal scorer for Dion Phaneuf and Andrew Hammond seems like a good way to get much worse.