Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals/Free Agents 2017-2018 ‎part deux the sequel

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I feel like I should mention Daniel Alfredsson...but.....

Fair enough but do we even know yet what really happened there? Its all just speculation no?

I just don't think any of this impacts Turris staying or not. If we decide to pay up, he'll sign here most likely. We've had this fear over and over and yet we haven't let a significant player walk for nothing in a long while now.

EDIT: Duh, I was thinking of Alfie leaving his management position. You meant as a UFA years ago. Fair enough, that's definitely one that happened and stung.

 

[Micklebot]

Buckle up? It could just be a player moving to a bigger house....happens all the time. I remember a while ago Canadiens fans on the trade board were going nuts because Pacioretty listed his house and nothing came of it.



Phaneuf is still a solid player who they've shown interest in and fills a major role for them.

The thing about Carter is, he's turning 33 early this season and has a ton of mileage on his body after all the playoff hockey the King's have played over the last 6-7 years. He still has 5 years left on his deal....5 years. He'll be nearly 38 when the deal expires. The cap hit is a bargain now, but there's potential for him to decline.

With Turris, they downgrade but they get a center who is 4 years younger. Turris will be more expensive to extend if they opt to go that route and they kick the can down the road of having an older player on a big cap hit by a few seasons. They could also opt to trade Turris for a big package at the deadline if they are out of the playoffs again and Turris isn't open to extending LA would be in a position to try and get a decent return for him in the form of picks+prospects.

Carter's age in conjunction with his cap hit is not an issue for the Senators since as far as we know, the Sens are a budget team going forward so the salary is more important than the cap hit. Even if Carter declines during the last 2-3 years of his deal, his salary drops substantially to the point where he only makes 2M for the last two years of the deal. At that price, if he's a responsible vet 4th liner (aka the absolute worst case scenario) he would be earning his contract....obviously the Sens would hope for him to be able to hold up for as long as possible as a top 6 player.

I'll be the first to admit, like a lot of people, I find it very hard to assess "value" in the NHL. So it's entirely possible, the Sens need to add in some form but the Sens adding another asset wouldn't change the basis of the trade and why it works so well balancing the salary needs of a budget team vs LA's cap situation.

Ultimately, LA would be turning Carter into Phaneuf+Turris, two very good players, and then dumping Gaborik to subsidise Phaneuf's inflated cap hit. If anything like that trade happened, obviously I'd be shocked, but I don't think the premise is that outlandish even if I may not have gotten the value right.

Wrt your last point;

Imagine we had Turris extended to market value, and Phaneuf at market value. Would a deal of Turris + Phaneuf be adequate to net you Carter, even on his team friendly deal?

Lets say you think Market value for Turris is 6.5 and Phaneuf is 4.5 per. That means if we extend Turris to a deal at 6.5 prior to the trade, our package is 2.5 mil over market value for those players.

Lets say Carter's market value is 7.2, so he's signed at ~2 mil below market value. Gaborik paces around 30 pts and is injured half the time. I imagine his market value is probably one of those 1 mil for 1 season deals.

So, in terms of balancing the below and above market value issues, I think Gaborik does a good job to offset everything and turn it into a straight up on ice impact calculation. Is LA a better team with Carter and Gaborik for the next x years, or Turris and Phaneuf. Same question for the sens.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Wrt your last point;

Imagine we had Turris extended to market value, and Phaneuf at market value. Would a deal of Turris + Phaneuf be adequate to net you Carter, even on his team friendly deal?

Lets say you think Market value for Turris is 6.5 and Phaneuf is 4.5 per. That means if we extend Turris to a deal at 6.5 prior to the trade, our package is 2.5 mil over market value for those players.

Lets say Carter's market value is 7.2, so he's signed at ~2 mil below market value. Gaborik paces around 30 pts and is injured half the time. I imagine his market value is probably one of those 1 mil for 1 season deals.

So, in terms of balancing the below and above market value issues, I think Gaborik does a good job to offset everything and turn it into a straight up on ice impact calculation. Is LA a better team with Carter and Gaborik for the next x years, or Turris and Phaneuf. Same question for the sens.

I think LA is better with Turris+Phaneuf. I think on paper the Senators are worse with Carter instead of Phaneuf+Turris but the salary surplus it would create as outlined in initial post is an asset in itself should allow us to retain players not involved in the trade and make us better that way.

The trade would be robbing our roster for 17-18 in order to allow us the opportunity to be better as soon as 18-19 and beyond due to an improved salary structure. Carter is an obvious upgrade on Turris, but losing Phaneuf hurts our blueline immensely. The original idea for the trade came from hearing that the Sens are still shopping Phaneuf.....so if that's the case they obviously are okay with losing him now.

 

[Tuna99]

I'll say Mac retires and the Sens sign Jagr.

Dorion's interview he sounded non-committal to Mac playing this season.

 

[armani]

I'll say Mac retires and the Sens sign Jagr.

Dorion's interview he sounded non-committal to Mac playing this season.

Mac retiring means retaining cap hit for years. Unless he goes to LTIR, which may or may not be the case seeing he just played three rounds of intense hockey last spring.

 

[Micklebot]

Mac retiring means retaining cap hit for years. Unless he goes to LTIR, which may or may not be the case seeing he just played three rounds of intense hockey last spring.

He's not a 35+ contract, so his cap hit would not still count if he retired.

 

[armani]

He's not a 35+ contract, so his cap hit would not still count if he retired.

Thanks for the clarification, so I guess he is grandfathered under the old CBA?

But why would Mac retire after his inspirational come back? Is this wishful thinking of some fans or is there a legitimate source talking about such a possibility?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Thanks for the clarification, so I guess he is grandfathered under the old CBA?

But why would Mac retire after his inspirational come back? Is this wishful thinking of some fans or is there a legitimate source talking about such a possibility?

Tuna was referencing a Team 1200 interview with Dorion posted today. I didn't really hear much, just that they haven't really talked yet and that he'd like to speak to him that he's good to go before just sending him out on the ice. Sounds to me like he'll show up to camp and go from there.

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/ottawa-1200...-give-bigger-opportunity-for-young-d-1.850032

 

[danielpalfredsson]

"As far as I know everything with Clarke is good. Obviously before he steps on the ice I definitely need to talk to him to make sure everything is good. As far as I know he skated in the summer, but what he said at the end of the summer he still has neck pains. So as an organisation we obviously have a responsibility to him, but as far as I know everything is on the right path."

Paraphrased so listen for yourself about 5 minutes in http://www.tsn.ca/radio/ottawa-1200...-give-bigger-opportunity-for-young-d-1.850032

I am not sure if it was public he still had neck pains, so that might be new info....but to me it doesn't sound like MacArthur is going to retire at all. Unless Dorion is being deliberately aloof, I would imagine that the GM would have a clearer idea if someone was about to call it quits. Seems like a non-story so far.

He also mentions how they are comfortable with some of their defenders like Phaneuf, Chabot, (oh and Borowiecki ) playing the left side if needed.

 

[Sensinitis]

"As far as I know everything with Clarke is good. Obviously before he steps on the ice I definitely need to talk to him to make sure everything is good. As far as I know he skated in the summer, but what he said at the end of the summer he still has neck pains. So as an organisation we obviously have a responsibility to him, but as far as I know everything is on the right path."

Paraphrased so listen for yourself about 5 minutes in http://www.tsn.ca/radio/ottawa-1200...-give-bigger-opportunity-for-young-d-1.850032

I am not sure if it was public he still had neck pains, so that might be new info....but to me it doesn't sound like MacArthur is going to retire at all. Unless Dorion is being deliberately aloof, I would imagine that the GM would have a clearer idea if someone was about to call it quits. Seems like a non-story so far.

He also mentions how they are comfortable with some of their defenders like Phaneuf, Chabot, (oh and Borowiecki ) playing the left side if needed.

Thanks for the update!

Did you mean the right side for the bolded?

 

[Tuna99]

Thanks for the clarification, so I guess he is grandfathered under the old CBA?

But why would Mac retire after his inspirational come back? Is this wishful thinking of some fans or is there a legitimate source talking about such a possibility?

He sounded non-committal at season end about hockey and when those thoughts enter your mind I think it's a very intense battle to stay motivated when you know you're future is at risk. So I guess the reason is because Mac brought it up and by all indications he had wrestled with retiring.

I hope he comes back and is his old self because he is our best LW when healthy.

But maybe he weighed the good and the bad, felt the playoffs and his performance gave him some sense of closure and the banging and grinding of the playoffs took a toll he doesn't want to mess with.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Thanks for the update!

Did you mean the right side for the bolded?

Yeah, typo. They are okay with Phaneuf/Chabot/even Boro playing the right side if needed.

 

[armani]

He sounded non-committal at season end about hockey and when those thoughts enter your mind I think it's a very intense battle to stay motivated when you know you're future is at risk. So I guess the reason is because Mac brought it up and by all indications he had wrestled with retiring.

I hope he comes back and is his old self because he is our best LW when healthy.

But maybe he weighed the good and the bad, felt the playoffs and his performance gave him some sense of closure and the banging and grinding of the playoffs took a toll he doesn't want to mess with.

Yes, so it's all conjecture based in what Mac said at that time, obviously he's had to deal with the retirement question all year, and he played admirably in the toughest of all hockey games in the first three rounds.

From Dorion's comments it appears MacArthur is coming to camp, and that means he wants to play and not retire (my conjecture). We can definitely use a healthy MacArthur.

 

[Engineer]

Thanks for the clarification, so I guess he is grandfathered under the old CBA?

No this is the current CBA, if a player is on a standard or ELC contract and they officially retire (note: officially), their cap hit and salary is removed from the teams books.

Now, if they "retire" due to injury, like Dupuis on Pittsburgh, he continues to receive a salary, and therefore has a cap hit.

 

[armani]

No this is the current CBA, if a player is on a standard or ELC contract and they officially retire (note: officially), their cap hit and salary is removed from the teams books.

Now, if they "retire" due to injury, like Dupuis on Pittsburgh, he continues to receive a salary, and therefore has a cap hit.

Thanks.

I can't see MacArthur officially retiring if he can continue to get paid, he deserves it as he was hurt in the line of service. So LTIR a la Savard, Horton, et. al seems more logical in such scenario from Mac POV.

But it looks like he is on course to attend the training camp, has been skating full-time, which tells me he is not thinking retirement.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

In his Team 1200 interview, Dorion said there will be anywhere between 0-3 PTOs at camp. Lots of guys that they have interest in but it will be up to the guys they tender offers to, to accept. At this point, however, they will not be signing anyone until after camp (if at all).

He also mentioned they might look at guys who weren't tendered QOs, for what that's worth.

 

[WadeRedden]

I very much doubt that Sakic is happy going into the season assuming his team will be bottom of the league again, and doubt even more that ownership would be happy with that. They likely see last season not as a true indication of the team's talent level, and expect to be a bubble team this year, like they were the two years prior. Missing Duchene for an extended period has the potential to kill their playoff hopes before the season starts. I'm also not sure what you mean by 'makes too much money to hold out'. He's financially set no matter what. Dollars are obviously not his motivator in the decision, so how much he currently makes wouldn't factor into whether or not he can or can't hold out.

.

What difference does it make that he's 'financially set?' Even if he has twenty million cash in the bank he's not just going to light a few million on fire because he's unhappy at the moment. These guys all have multiple million dollar homes/cars etc. plus a lot of them support family and friends.

Dollars absolutely play a factor into whether or not he can hold out. The risk is far greater when you're talking about forfeiting 2-3 million as opposed to a few hundred grand. The opportunity cost is far too great at the moment.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

What difference does it make that he's 'financially set?' Even if he has twenty million cash in the bank he's not just going to light a few million on fire because he's unhappy at the moment. These guys all have multiple million dollar homes/cars etc. plus a lot of them support family and friends.

Dollars absolutely play a factor into whether or not he can hold out. The risk is far greater when you're talking about forfeiting 2-3 million as opposed to a few hundred grand. The opportunity cost is far too great at the moment.

Definitely. Athletes have proven again and again almost across the board that more money always matters no matter what youve earned. Worth 100 Mil? Doesnt matter they still want market value even if it may hamstring their team. Look at Lebron, he goes back home, is worth like 400 Mil, and yet only signs one or two year deals to ensure he can squeeze out those extra couple Mil theyre able to pay him if he re-ups later.

His agent will lay out the ramifications and Clarke will make the best business decision for himself, not for the Ottawa Senators.

 

[Deku]

He also mentioned they might look at guys who weren't tendered QOs, for what that's worth.

The return of Chiasson?

 

[Ouroboros]

The return of Chiasson?

You're joking, but he's pretty much the only NHL calibre player out there that fits that category. Maybe Joseph Cramarossa - and that's being generous.

Other than that it's a grim looking group of players. Many of them would be in tough to win jobs in Belleville.

 

[Liver King]

lets get jagr

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Chiasson is gonna be this year's Marchessault. I don't actually believe this but I am just writing it now so that if the Sens do pass on signing him, and by some miracle it happens, I can pretend I was smarter than Sens management. If it doesn't happen...I will never speak of this post again.

 

[Boud]

Chiasson is gonna be this year's Marchessault. I don't actually believe this but I am just writing it now so that if the Sens do pass on signing him, and by some miracle it happens, I can pretend I was smarter than Sens management. If it doesn't happen...I will never speak of this post again.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

lets get jagr

Jagr needs to retire. The last thing Ottawa needs is that kind of sideshow.

 

[Ohhh Franco]

If you follow MacArthur on Instagram there's also another pretty big clue in a recent pic that makes many think he's not coming back...

Wipe his cash from the books and Sens pretty much fall back right to a pretty Sens/Melnyk like salary number. How they replace him will be very interesting and could set the tone for this season.