I've looked at the numbers.
Using your game range from above:
RNH : 19:28 per game
Henrik Sedin: 13:25 per game
The Sedins broke into the league on the 3rd line and played there for the first 4 years of their NHL career. Then they got a bump in ice time and offensive opportunity and their offensive production subsequently climbed. Once they were getting the type of minutes RNH has gotten from day one they were PPG+ players.
Ditto for Pavel Datsyuk. Broke onto a team that had 10 future hall of famers and was playing 13:30~ a night as a rookie. As his ice time and offensive opportunities increased so did his offensive production.
RNH broke into the league and for his entire career has been getting every single offensive opportunity with the teams best offensive players. There's no way for RNHs offensive time to increase. If anything, as McDavid and Draisaitl develop RNH will start seeing fewer and fewer offensive opportunities and more and more defensive responsibilities. That's not going to help his offensive production.
People take these exceptional situations with certain players and either don't look at the context or ignore it. And then go "see, it happened with player X, it will happen with RNH too." It doesn't work that way.
As for why I think a good #3 D is worth as much as a good #2C. I think there are fewer good defensemen in the league than there are good centermen. Just because someone plays the spot doesn't mean their suited for the spot. I think Ellis is a player who is suited for that #3 d spot.
good point, good post. the thing that is getting overlooked by people is that, in today's NHL, you
need 4 good dmen that can play 20 mins, and about 4 more that are used for the bottom pairing/depth. You only
need 2 top 6 Cs; a 3rd is a luxury (a very, very nice luxury, no doubt). As Spawn said: you can get a decent 3C and get by with him. Having a good 3D is both more difficult to do and more important to have.
Im not saying 'trade RNH for Ellis' as that, admitted is probably an overpayment. but, it's not as off as some are making it out to be. A quality 3D, that can put up points, is a very valuable and important player. And dreaming of the day when RNH is Datzyukian is... dreaming.
Im not even saying trade RNH. Id rather keep him, trade Ebs and move Drai to wing, at least for half a season, anyways.
but, your Dcorp is now the most important aspect of your team, so make it a bigger priority then C depth. sorry. one trumps the other.