GDT: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames - 7:00 MT

[OvermanKingGainer]

That doesn’t make up for 4 goals. Andersen’s “average” is much better than Rittich to be fair. Also, don’t forget the leafs are missing their 2nd pair defecemen in Dermott and Gardiner.

What?

On average going into last night's game rittich was at 2.56 GAA and Andersen was at 2.58 GAA.

The Flames played a game where two of the best defensive defensemen on not only their team but in the NHL were directly responsible for five goals against simple from non-repeatable bad coverage. The sixth and final goal was a beyond flukey bounce.

The reality is that if your defensive issues are Travis Hamonic and Mark Giordano in a given game, it's probably one of two or three games all season that's gonna be the case. You suck it up and move on knowing those two are gonna be stellar next time. No way Toronto could win that game again in a seven game series. they would need to play profoundly better because Hamonic and Giordano aren't gonna botch scoring plays that bad again for another 30 games.

Really though Calgary shut down Tavares, shut down the entire Matthews line, shut down the entiee Nylander line. Marner made some plays, but neither becomes a goal if Gio and Hamonic do what Gio and Hamonic do 99% of the time. I sure doubt Tyler Ennis ever has a hat trick ever again in his career.

Calgary's offense also underperformed but I do give Andersen credit for making a handful of excellent saves.

 

[LivingRentFree]

What?

On average going into last night's game rittich was at 2.56 GAA and Andersen was at 2.58 GAA.

The Flames played a game where two of the best defensive defensemen on not only their team but in the NHL were directly responsible for five goals against simple from non-repeatable bad coverage. The sixth and final goal was a beyond flukey bounce.

The reality is that if your defensive issues are Travis Hamonic and Mark Giordano in a given game, it's probably one of two or three games all season that's gonna be the case. You suck it up and move on knowing those two are gonna be stellar next time. No way Toronto could win that game again in a seven game series. they would need to play profoundly better because Hamonic and Giordano aren't gonna botch scoring plays that bad again for another 30 games.

Really though Calgary shut down Tavares, shut down the entire Matthews line, shut down the entiee Nylander line. Marner made some plays, but neither becomes a goal if Gio and Hamonic do what Gio and Hamonic do 99% of the time. I sure doubt Tyler Ennis ever has a hat trick ever again in his career.

Calgary's offense also underperformed but I do give Andersen credit for making a handful of excellent saves.

GAA is not how you measure a goalie, sv% is.

 

[SKRusty]

That doesn’t make up for 4 goals. Andersen’s “average” is much better than Rittich to be fair. Also, don’t forget the leafs are missing their 2nd pair defecemen in Dermott and Gardiner.

Neither Gardiner or Dermott are likely to be 100% healthy come the playoffs. They may play but it would be arguable if they are better than their replacement. I hope Kadri's concussion does not linger.

Only 1 team has used less than 8 d-men in a cup run since 2000... That does not bode well for the Leafs and when you consider that was Chicago with Kieth, Seabrook and Halmersson in their prime....hmmm

You guys are in trouble in the first round IMO.

 

[LivingRentFree]

Oh sure, officiating decides rankings of PP opportunities? Only Toronto doesn't realize how many unseen advantages they get

I'll never forget that feeling of absolute disgust when Calgary was in Toronto you were gifted a 5 on 3 including a bull**** call on Giordano, which was pretty much the only game this season Peters called out the officiating in the post game scrum.

Happens every day in this league. Sometimes you get the calls, sometimes you don’t. But the stats don’t lie. Flames are 2nd in the league for PP opportunities, Leafs are 2nd last. Tough to have an argument on that when leafs forwards overall are faster/deeper.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

GAA is not how you measure a goalie, sv% is.

No, this isn't true. deltaSV% is how you measure a goalie and even that's not without its flaws.

Relying on SV% alone is flawed because it ALWAYS favours goalies on teams who give up a lot of shots. It's the nature of the stat. Goalies who see a lot of rubber are consistently sharper and also tend to get more help in the crease because their D don't play as aggressive.

Fact is, Rittich's GAA is 2.56 and he allowed far more goals than that. Andersen's GAA is 2.58 and he allowed slightly less than that.

You can never truly separate a goalie from the team and assume SV% is a goalie stat. SV%, GAA... all are a combination of goalie / team stats. Andersen wouldn't necessarily post a .924 SV% behind a superior possession team like CGY.

 

[LivingRentFree]

Neither Gardiner or Dermott are likely to be 100% healthy come the playoffs. They may play but it would be arguable if they are better than their replacement. I hope Kadri's concussion does not linger.

Only 1 team has used less than 8 d-men in a cup run since 2000... That does not bode well for the Leafs and when you consider that was Chicago with Kieth, Seabrook and Halmersson in their prime....hmmm

You guys are in trouble in the first round IMO.

They're back in 3 weeks. No need to rush them in any facet. Keep them out for 4 if needed. Most teams have injuries in the playoffs for sure, when that happens, the leafs need to call the right guys up. I can’t see Marincin getting another shot, or Ozhiganov for that matter after their last week of play. However, players like Rosen, Sandin likely get the call up originally if they weren’t injured as well.

 

[LivingRentFree]

No, this isn't true. deltaSV% is how you measure a goalie and even that's not without its flaws.

Relying on SV% alone is flawed because it ALWAYS favours goalies on teams who give up a lot of shots. It's the nature of the stat. Goalies who see a lot of rubber are consistently sharper and also tend to get more help in the crease because their D don't play as aggressive.

Fact is, Rittich's GAA is 2.56 and he allowed far more goals than that. Andersen's GAA is 2.58 and he allowed slightly less than thatn

There are exceptions to every rule of course. But at the end of the day Rittich is sitting with a .910% behind one of the best defences in hockey.
Andersen is sitting with a .924% behind one of the alleged worst defences. That’s a big difference.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

There are exceptions to every rule of course. But at the end of the day Rittich is sitting with a .910% behind one of the best defences in hockey.
Andersen is sitting with a .924% behind one of the alleged worst defences. That’s a big difference.

Rittich is sitting with a .910 on a team that allows 29.6 shots in front of him

Andersen is sitting with a .924 on a team that allows 33.7 shots in front of him.

How much you wanna bet that Andersen's SV% drops when he sees fewer shots than when he sees more shots?

 

[LivingRentFree]

Sure, it could drop a minuscule amount possibly, but it could also inflate. We can only go by the facts we have. The facts we have are pretty clear. Andersen’s worst career save percentage is .914.
There is no comparison between the two goalies. Andersen is a Vezina candidate and the other guy ranks just below Koskinen and Carter Hutton this year (statistically).

I’m not here to bash the guy, but it’s a pretty unfavourable comparison and not really fair to Rittich.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Sure, it could drop a minuscule amount possibly, but it could also inflate. We can only go by the facts we have.

Here are the facts:

When Andersen faces 25 or fewer shots against this season, he has a .885 SV%
When Andersen faces 35 or more shots against this season, he has a .927 SV%
When Andersen faces between 26 and 34 shots against this season, he has a .913 SV%

Is this miniscule?

Sorry bro, but Andersen's SV% is inflated because he plays behind a team that gives up a lot of shots. And Rittich's SV% is deflated because he plays behind a team that gives up very few shots.

SV% is not a stat that's independant of how many shots your team gives up. It's be great if it were, but it's not. And shots as a stat are not indicative of quality.

The reality is that their GAA are almost identical this season and that's at the end of the day what matters. Using SV% as gospel is how guys like Jonathan Quick get underrated and guys like Bobrovksy get overrated.

 

[Master Bill]

Happens every day in this league. Sometimes you get the calls, sometimes you don’t. But the stats don’t lie. Flames are 2nd in the league for PP opportunities, Leafs are 2nd last. Tough to have an argument on that when leafs forwards overall are faster/deeper.

Stats don't lie, but the person reading it can. It is a ridiculous argument to say a team doesn't receive favourable calls because it lies near the bottom of that ranking. Any knowledgeable fan would understand that a team's playing style is a main factor of PP opportunities.

And no, your forwards are not faster/deeper

 

[Tofveve]

My god Leaf fans might be the most obnoxious in all of sports. Looking forward to Boston breaking their hearts for the 50th straight year in a little over a month.

Don't really have much to say about this game. One team executed and finished and the other didn't. Some pretty tough breaks for sure. There was definitely some good and some bad tonight, people will blame the defense and the goaltending and perhaps rightly so in this one, but I still believe it'll be the Flames' lack of an elite center will be the thing that sinks them if anything. I like Monahan, I like Monahan a lot, but until he can start taking over games at both ends of the rink and actually WIN the head to head matchups he's put in on a consistent basis it'll be the same old story since we traded Nieuwendyk. They really need to separate him from Gaudreau for a game or two and remind him he was drafted to be a catalyst for the team and not someone Johnny bounces pucks off of. Try something different, adjust, shake it up a bit, because the last coach that didn't was shown the door in quick fashion.

That all being said that's the first time the Flames have lost back to back games in regulation since November, so there's no reason to be stepping out onto the ledge just yet

This is pretty much what I've been saying for a couple of years now. I like Mony and he'll have great totals by career end; but a big part of that is due to getting first line minutes and PP time with Johnny and whoever else is our best offensive players. For most of the year he was good, but then, unfortunately, like seems to occur every year, there seems to be the slump period. In this seasons version, not sure how long it will last. But beyond all of that, this is the question I've had and posed a few times, which is: are we hitching our rebuild and next 8-10 years around a Trevor Linden lite (a captain who also was good, a star even, but not a superstar). I mean this isn't lost on the greater hockey community either. Mony wasn't listed in hockey's top 20 centres (probably just outside in the top 25). So if that's the case, it is what it is. Sometimes he does look very elite (puck handling skills, positioning, shot, passing skills), but like you and I have mused, are we really dealing with a 1st line centre that might have started his career and remained a 2nd line centre on a perpetual contending team. Tough thoughts to be sure.

 

[Volica]

You outplayed them, out chanced them; they got a Vezina caliber goaltender, we had rubbish luck and very average goaltending; it's the difference.
I don't see that game as a huge negative. Toronto's a high offensive caliber team, they have a great goalie. Calgary was the better team, that got some ugly bounces and bad luck; I'd still take Calgary in a 7 game series.

Not too bummed out. On to the next!

 

[DCDM]

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Bennett - Monahan - Frolik
Czarnik - Backlund - Jankowski
Mangiapane - Ryan - Hathaway

Maybe not this exactly but given how the top line has struggled lately, I would be really curious to see how Lindholm does as C for an extended look. I think he's a natural C anyways, isn't he? Put him in the middle of Gaudreau and whoever (doesn't have to be Tkachuk; Frolik or Bennett would probably do fine there too) and see if they can make something happen. Get Monahan off Gaudreau's line and force him out of his funk. Sean is skilled enough to create away from Johnny, he scored 22 in his rookie year without him, he can damn well do it now. The rest is kind of a cluster**** but the fourth line has been a bright spot lately so you probably don't want to mess that up, leaving the final three to be their own line.

Again, up for scrutiny but something has to give lately. They just aren't clicking.

 

[Peiskos]

Oh sure, officiating decides rankings of PP opportunities? Only Toronto doesn't realize how many unseen advantages they get

I'll never forget that feeling of absolute disgust when Calgary was in Toronto you were gifted a 5 on 3 including a bull**** call on Giordano, which was pretty much the only game this season Peters called out the officiating in the post game scrum.

Except for the fact that Toronto is DEAD LAST in the ENTIRE LEAGUE in power plays awarded at 172. Perhaps you should do some simple research before making such an incorrect statement. Calgary on the other hand 2nd in power play opportunities with 230.

 

[Master Bill]

Except for the fact that Toronto is DEAD LAST in the ENTIRE LEAGUE in power plays awarded at 172. Perhaps you should do some simple research before making such a bold incorrect statement.

Already went through this argument with another poster... check it first

Btw it's not about doing research, it's about having the knowledge to correctly extract an analysis from the stats.

 

[Peiskos]

Already went through this argument with another poster... check it first

Btw it's not about doing research, it's about having the knowledge to correctly extract an analysis from the stats.

You didn't go through anything, there is no need to overcomplicate a simple situation, the Leafs for as fast and talented as they are should be getting more PP opportunities, Tavares for example was blatantly tripped last night and there was no call. The Leafs rarely get awarded power plays, that is a fundamental black and white fact.

When you bring up the term "unforeseen advantages" that the Leafs apparently get..where does this take place? Power-plays are THE standard advantage a team could get in an NHL game and the only analysis to extract here is the Leafs simply don't get any for whatever reason, (bottom 3 in PP opportunities league wide) I guess teams just play super clean hockey against us, ya that must be it lol.

Reality is, as you may have heard last night, Leafs fans are everywhere and the reality is NHL refs are actually quite tough on the Leafs in order to appear non biased, the result is very few PP's every year.

 

[LivingRentFree]

Stats don't lie, but the person reading it can. It is a ridiculous argument to say a team doesn't receive favourable calls because it lies near the bottom of that ranking. Any knowledgeable fan would understand that a team's playing style is a main factor of PP opportunities.

And no, your forwards are not faster/deeper

If you made a poll asking which team was deeper at forward, or faster, it would be an absolute LANDSLIDE in favour of the leafs. This truly isn’t close.

 

[SKRusty]

If you made a poll asking which team was deeper at forward, or faster, it would be an absolute LANDSLIDE in favour of the leafs. This truly isn’t close.

A poll does not make it so. Now if you were to poll hockey analysts and GM's each of them would give Calgary the advantage. Calgary forwards have matched your forwards and on defense it isn't even close. Calgary, San Jose and Toronto are almost in a dead heat for goals/per game.

Last night the Leafs were out chanced badly for the first 2 periods 18 to 12 in high danger chances and shots of 26 to 19. Matthews and Tavares were neutered. Save 3 bad goals it would have been 2-1 going into the 3rd period and I would like Calgary's chances in that scenario.

There are some great players on the Leafs roster but it is rather short sighted to not acknowledge the short comings of the club. My prediction is the Leafs lose in 6 to Boston in the first round.

Calgary makes it to the conference final and there it is too close to call.

 

[Master Bill]

If you made a poll asking which team was deeper at forward, or faster, it would be an absolute LANDSLIDE in favour of the leafs. This truly isn’t close.

At to reiterate on this point, this is not a troll job. This is a basic fact. I think even most flames fans would agree.

Wow, this makes me LOL & at the same time. It's true that your top forwards get more recognition because they are high draft picks that play in the biggest hockey market, but you are absolutely foolish if you believe your forward group is miles better. In my very honest opinion, both teams are pretty comparable in terms of the level of talent and speed. How could you even say it's not even close?

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Why are Leafs fans in here again? I always get a ban or warning for going to other teams threads and starting crap.

 

[SKRusty]

Why are Leafs fans in here again? I always get a ban or warning for going to other teams threads and starting crap.

I kind of laugh at their situation coming in here and talking big.. Reminds you of the trolls living in their mothers basement and when they lose in the first round they will disappear again.

Leafs fans are some of the most fair weather fans I know.

 

[Master Bill]

I kind of laugh at their situation coming in here and talking big.. Reminds you of the trolls living in their mothers basement and when they lose in the first round they will disappear again.

Leafs fans are some of the most fair weather fans I know.

I don't recall many coming to our last GDT when we beat them in Toronto...

 

[Mr Snrub]

Why are Leafs fans in here again? I always get a ban or warning for going to other teams threads and starting crap.

Entitlement complex. They truly believe that everyone loves the Maple Leafs.

 

[LivingRentFree]

Fair weather fans lmao. In Toronto? Ohhhh boy.