Proposal: Toronto Goaltending Shakeup
- Thread starter hamzarocks
- Start date
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
First of all, I would never use regular season standings to determine contenders.
Secondly, when I think of contenders, I think of the teams that I think have a realistic chance of winning the Stanley Cup, and with their defense and how soft a team they are I don't think the Maple Leafs have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the Cup.
They are life and death to even make the playoffs and they haven't even won a playoff round since before the iPhone was invented. It's absurd to pretend they are contenders.
Flyer lurker
Registered User
- Feb 16, 2019
- 9,752
- 12,571
Andersen was so overused when Hutch was backup his play on the ice was bound to suffer and get hurt. He never had a shot to succeed this year putting him on 65+ game pace plus whatever playoff games.
Next year if you go Andersen 52 starts Campbell 30 starts you should see the bounce back. Now can Leafs afford to pay 8-9m after 2021 season in free agency?
You can make the case if there is a restart to season the Leafs were helped by the most by the virus. Andersen would have been over used to make the playoffs and not been in top form come playoff time. Rested Andersen at least has shot to go on hot streak.
Next year if you go Andersen 52 starts Campbell 30 starts you should see the bounce back. Now can Leafs afford to pay 8-9m after 2021 season in free agency?
You can make the case if there is a restart to season the Leafs were helped by the most by the virus. Andersen would have been over used to make the playoffs and not been in top form come playoff time. Rested Andersen at least has shot to go on hot streak.
Well this team has only been assembled for what? 4 years so anything beyond that is irrelevant. They had 3 great series against Boston x 2 and against Washington. Taking Boston to 7 games, both times and losing to a solidly stacked Washington team in 6. Which I believe won the cup the next year. They didn’t lose to Boston because of being soft or bad defensively last year. They lost because of special teams. Fair enough if you want to include the defence on penalty kill. They actually outhit Boston last year as well. Both those teams were led by solid vets. Just because they lost those series doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders. They played 2 amazing teams in 3 years. But I’ll be honest, I have read a lot of your opinion on the leafs and it sounds like you just have an agenda towards them and don’t want to show them any kind of respect. Just my opinion.
67Leafs67
Registered User
- Nov 8, 2014
- 774
- 631
No thank-you.
First of all, Freddie might have had a bad season, and Allen a decent one (as a backup), but historically, Jake Allen has been one of the worst starting goaltenders in the NHL for the last half-dozen years, and Andersen has been quite solid in his stint with Toronto. He still has the 20-21 season on just $5M, so why trade him now?
Goaltending is relatively random year to year, probably the most unpredictable of any position in hockey. A shakeup just for the sake of shaking it up isn't a good idea, especially with this position, when you can't be entirely certain of what you're giving up, and what you're getting back.
First of all, Freddie might have had a bad season, and Allen a decent one (as a backup), but historically, Jake Allen has been one of the worst starting goaltenders in the NHL for the last half-dozen years, and Andersen has been quite solid in his stint with Toronto. He still has the 20-21 season on just $5M, so why trade him now?
Goaltending is relatively random year to year, probably the most unpredictable of any position in hockey. A shakeup just for the sake of shaking it up isn't a good idea, especially with this position, when you can't be entirely certain of what you're giving up, and what you're getting back.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
Yes my "agenda" is that their are lousy defensively and way too soft to win.
If you think that's an agenda, you are certainly entitled to your opinion.
And if you think this team, and what it's accomplished deserves "respect" than we have very different measuring sticks when it comes to accessing the quality of a hockey team.
T_Cage
VP of Awesome
- Sep 26, 2006
- 5,483
- 856
I don’t see Freddie getting a 1+2/3..but honestly I don’t think I trade him for less (unless we get wind he’s not coming back)
as for Allen? We don’t have room for a 4m backup tight against the cap, and he’s not worth that. It would have to be at 50% (from stl or a 3rd team) and even then the best I’d do is a 4th (prob push for a 4th for Allen@50% + a 7th)
as for Allen? We don’t have room for a 4m backup tight against the cap, and he’s not worth that. It would have to be at 50% (from stl or a 3rd team) and even then the best I’d do is a 4th (prob push for a 4th for Allen@50% + a 7th)
So what do they need to do for someone to respect them? They got beat in the
Playoffs to 2 great teams? 1 of which won the cup and the other going to the finals and both being president trophy winners and finalists. Do they have their flaws, absolutely. Only one team can win the cup each year. Do you only respect 1 team? The champions. I get it. You don’t have to like the team or the fans but you show them no respect at all. Remember that they lost to 2 great teams. You have to learn how to lose in the Playoffs before you learn to win.
Pyrophorus
Registered User
CantLoseWithMatthews
Registered User
- Sep 28, 2015
- 49,709
- 59,435
Pyrophorus
Registered User
I'm with a growing number of people, who think this should be Freddy's last season here.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
They need to win.
They need to be a good team.
They need to be a team I believe can give any of the top teams in the league a run for their money.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
Pyrophorus
Registered User
67Leafs67
Registered User
- Nov 8, 2014
- 774
- 631
i) Is Toronto's defense a strength? Absolutely not, but calling it "atrocious" is hyperbolic, and wrong. Toronto was 18th in xGA/60, 17th in scoring chances against/60, and 21st in high danger chances against/60, and 23rd in shot threat allowed at 5v5. Below average, for sure, and in a division with two of the better defensive teams in the league in Boston & Tampa Bay, definitely a weakness...but atrocious...that's a bit far.
ii) Interesting you should think so. The 2018 Washington Capitals had a +14% shot threat allowed (positive being bad, negative being good) compared to league (for reference, Toronto had a +7% this past season). They were 29th in the NHL with 2.53 xGA/60 at 5v5. The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins had a +20% shot threat allowed compared to the league, and were 26th in the NHL with 2.33 xGA/60. The 2015 Chicago Blackhawks had a +19% shot threat allowed relative to the league, and were 18th in xGA/60 with 2.2 xGA/60.
| Team | xGA/60 | Rank | Shot Threat Relative to League | Built to Win? |
2015 CHI | 2.20 | 18th | +19% | Yes |
2017 PIT | 2.33 | 26th | +20% | Yes |
2018 WSH | 2.53 | 29th | +14% | Yes |
2020 TOR | 2.32 | 18th | +7% | No |
iii) What exactly has made them not a contender? In 2018 they were 6th in the NHL Pts% and 6th by Hockey-Reference's SRS (simple rating system that adjusts standings for schedule strength & goal differential). In 2019 they were 7th in Pts%, and 4th by SRS. In both seasons, their first round opponent was Boston (4th in 2018, 3rd in 2019), who they took to seven games and lost on the road. Their pre-season odds for the Stanley Cup were 4th in 2019-20, 3rd in 2018-19, and 9th in 2017-18.
Especially in a playoff format where the better team only wins about 60% of the time (compared to the 80% success rate of the NBA), really any random team is a 'contender'...but that is besides the point. However I would contend that over the last three seasons (as would objective statistics, and apparently oddsmakers, who seem to know a thing or two), Toronto has definitely been more of a contender than most contestants. The fact that Boston & Tampa Bay happen to inhabit their division, and thus, first step to a Stanley Cup, doesn't change the fact that they are a good team. I'm not entirely sure then what your idea of a contender is then? Just a title applied to teams that have already won in recent years, based on retrospective conjecture?
iv) Florida's offense is not "as good as the Leafs". Toronto had 237 goals, and Florida had 228 goals. Toronto generated a +13% offensive threat this season (in terms of offense, positive being good), and a +12% on the PP, while Florida had a -1% at even-strength, and +5% on the power-play. In all situations, Toronto generated the 8th most high danger chances/60, compared to Florida's 26th most. Take away Babcock's stint, and Toronto's numbers just get better.
Team | GF | xGF/60 | Offensive Threat | HDCF/60 |
TOR | 237 (+9) | 2.85 (+0.21) | +13% (+14%) | 11.69 (+1.61) |
FLA | 228 | 2.64 | -1% | 10.08 |
Also, Florida hasn't been in the playoffs since 2015-16, and not since 2011-12 before that, and not since 1999-00 before that. They were 18th in the NHL last year by Pts% and SRS. They were 16th by Pts% and 19th by SRS the season before. They've been an average, non-playoff team for the last three seasons, whereas Toronto has been in the top ten of the league.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
A bunch of nonsense pretending the Leafs defense is good enough to win a Cup with silly stats removed.
Let me ask you a simple question: Do you think the Leafs defense is on par with the 2015 Blackhawks defense?
Do you think it's equal to the Penguins defense? Do you think it's as good as the Capitals blueline?
Is that what you're claiming with all your stats?
Your numbers are incorrect. The Maple Leafs have 237 goals. The Panthers have 231 goals. And one less game played. Are you pretending these offenses aren't the same? Do you want to use some silly stats to pretend the Panthers offence isn't as good as the Leafs?
It was a simple question... Are the Panthers a legit contender for the Stanley Cup? If they aren't how come the Leafs are?
Let me ask you a simple question: Do you think the Leafs defense is on par with the 2015 Blackhawks defense?
Do you think it's equal to the Penguins defense? Do you think it's as good as the Capitals blueline?
Is that what you're claiming with all your stats?
Your numbers are incorrect. The Maple Leafs have 237 goals. The Panthers have 231 goals. And one less game played. Are you pretending these offenses aren't the same? Do you want to use some silly stats to pretend the Panthers offence isn't as good as the Leafs?
It was a simple question... Are the Panthers a legit contender for the Stanley Cup? If they aren't how come the Leafs are?
I’m sure the leafs are very concerned with your opinion. I bet they do absolutely love your obsession though.
imagine spending your life complaining about an organization you don’t even cheer for..... such odd behaviour.
The amount of discussion and press they get from fans who pretend to hate them is absurd.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
Really weird that you think my opinion of the team is of any kind of interest to the team itself, but that being said, I actually do cheer for them. I would love to see the Leafs become one of the top teams in the league and go on a nice march in the playoffs.
67Leafs67
Registered User
- Nov 8, 2014
- 774
- 631
How very socratic of you. Let's not actually rebut any of the evidence presented with contrary evidence, or even explain why said evidence might be irrelevant, or untrue, but instead just ignore the entire argument and call it "silly" and "nonsense". Just remove it all and pretend it doesn't exist? I guess that's one way to 'win' an argument, lol.
Also, the numbers aren't wrong. They are referenced from Hockey-Reference.com and Naturalstatrick.com. The discrepancy lies within Toronto having 237 regulation + OT goals and 238 boxscore goals (ie. counting a shootout winner as a goal), and Florida having 228 regulation + OT goals, and 231 boxscore goals (due to 3 shootout wins). I don't know why you even brought it up, as your adjusted (and also wrong...by your metric of counting shootout winners, Toronto has 238 goals), doesn't actually change the substance of the argument, and is such a petty difference it means next to nothing.
I thought that the argument presented was a pretty clear answer to your 'simple questions'. What I am curious to know is why you consider objective evidence to be silly & nonsensical, and what superior form of analysis you employ to come to your esteemed, definitive, and infinitely wise opinions.
I think the thing people forget is that despite all the injuries and coaching change and Freddie playing drunk for about 30 games.
the leafs were on pace for 107 pts with anyone not named Hutchison in net.
This is easy.
# 1. The leafs gas substantial injuries up front all year which limited goal output.
#2. They posses a deeper offense especially the top 6.
#3. Defense is about equal.
#4. Goaltending should be in the leafs favor.
So you ask ate the Panthers a contender? The answer is No. Sre the leafs ? Outside condetender yes. Too many talented teams in the east, boston Pittsburgh Washington tampa...one of those teams win the east .
BlueBaron
Registered User
The Great Goalie Ranking: NHL Backup Edition - TheHockeyNews
That list was made a year ago and he did nothing to hurt his standing last year. Not that I think he should be our starter.
Please tell me why the Leafs need to get rid of Andersson
Namikaze Minato
Registered User
I’d re-sign Andersen. It seems to me that the Leafs have bern looking for decent goaltending for years and now they finally have it. Why would they shake it up?
He hasn’t been great this year but goalies often go through highs and lows.
And imo goalies generally get too much blame for playoff losses. It’s easy to point at the goalie and ignore defensive breakdowns. Put a better defence in front of him and I think Andersen is capable of going on a playoff run. I’d look at a major shakeup on the back end first.
He hasn’t been great this year but goalies often go through highs and lows.
And imo goalies generally get too much blame for playoff losses. It’s easy to point at the goalie and ignore defensive breakdowns. Put a better defence in front of him and I think Andersen is capable of going on a playoff run. I’d look at a major shakeup on the back end first.
