Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] John Tavares signs with the Leafs (7 years, $11M AAV) Part II

[Gary Nylund]

Tavares was a -12 this season if that stat is all you want to look at.



What 7 players were more important than Bozak and JVR?

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Andersen, Rielly and Gardiner. Those were clearly the top 7, after that you can debate between JVR, Marleau, Zaitsev, Bozak and Zaitsev for the next 5 spots. I think next season Dermott would move into the top 8 and Zaitsev if a good possibility to bounce back and make it a top 9. And with Tavares in town, if he were to take JVR's spot on the top PP unit then JVR might be in tough to hit 45 points next season, the guy just isn't that good 5on5.

 

[Legion34]

Because his career save percentage is something he obtained facing a lot less shots per season on average.

Tavares is polling the exact same against Schiefele as he was before he joined Toronto in late May. He probably fell off a cliff since February because his performance in the games from February until the end of the season was terrible while other centers like Kuznetsov and Schiefele had monster playoff performances.

You do understand that’s why people use percentages instead of raw number right?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You do understand that’s why people use percentages instead of raw number right?

I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say.

It’s much easier for a goaltender to maintain a .918 SV% when facing 1,513 shots per season (Andersen’s career average) than it is for them to maintain those kinds of numbers when facing 2,211 shots per season.

 

[Kelly]

I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say.

It’s much easier for a goaltender to maintain a .918 SV% when facing 1,513 shots per season (Andersen’s career average) than it is for them to maintain those kinds of numbers when facing 2,211 shots per season.

I don't agree at all. It's not that simple, or black/white.

What about the quality of shots? If he's facing less high danger shots per /100 shots as he did before, more shots against could actually be beneficial towards his sv%.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I don't agree at all. It's not that simple, or black/white.

What about the quality of shots? If he's facing less high danger shots per /100 shots as he did before, more shots against could actually be beneficial towards his sv%.

Toronto was 4th in 5V5 xGA. Frederik Andersen’s expected save percentage at all strengths was 90.76%.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say.

It’s much easier for a goaltender to maintain a .918 SV% when facing 1,513 shots per season (Andersen’s career average) than it is for them to maintain those kinds of numbers when facing 2,211 shots per season.

Statistically the opposite is true. Goalies post better S% numbers when facing >30 shots than <30 shots.

 

[glucker]

I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say.

It’s much easier for a goaltender to maintain a .918 SV% when facing 1,513 shots per season (Andersen’s career average) than it is for them to maintain those kinds of numbers when facing 2,211 shots per season.

No, if you’re facing more shots, each goal counts for less against your save%. Statistically it’s much easier to maintain a save % with a high volume than to maintain it against low volume.

When teams allow high shot volume, it tends to be lower quality shots, which are easier to save, so that makes the higher save % easier to achieve, as well.

 

[glucker]

And the Oilers had 103 points the season before!
And the Leafs played in easiest division, plays Buffalo and Senators more!

They exited in the 1st round against a team who busted in the next round and that team busted in the round after that, The defense is the same and hoping on rookies /farmers to break out. Need i go on!

I’ve see a couple of Edmonton fans call the top division in hockey the easiest one... it’s pretty weird.

Did you ever consider that the bottom teams in the Atlantic have such a poor showing, because they have to deal with the likes of Toronto, Tampa, and Boston on a regular basis?

Toronto had a better showing vs the rest of the NHL than they did against the “easy” teams in the Atlantic- this was a topic of debate heading into the playoffs.

As for the Leafs, Bruins, and Tampa getting eliminated- the team with the easiest road to the finals is going to do better, while teams facing tougher competition get worn out. It’s unfortunate that the NHL had 3 teams in the top-6 of the league face each other in the first 2 rounds.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Statistically the opposite is true. Goalies post better S% numbers when facing >30 shots than <30 shots.

No, if you’re facing more shots, each goal counts for less against your save%. Statistically it’s much easier to maintain a save % with a high volume than to maintain it against low volume.

When teams allow high shot volume, it tends to be lower quality shots, which are easier to save, so that makes the higher save % easier to achieve, as well.

In one season, perhaps. But over the course of multiple seasons, a goaltender who consistently faces that type of rubber and fatigue will see their performance falter.

Cam Talbot is a great example. His first 2 years with Edmonton, he faced a lot of shots, and did well. But this year, he broke down, and cost his team a playoff spot.

It’s very unlikely that Toronto will finish 4th in shots against and 20th in goals against (in descending order) again next year. You can disagree with me, but just wait and see. Their defensive performance as a whole will need to improve or their goals against will regress. There are Leafs fans who say this same thing.

I’ve see a couple of Edmonton fans call the top division in hockey the easiest one... it’s pretty weird.

Did you ever consider that the bottom teams in the Atlantic have such a poor showing, because they have to deal with the likes of Toronto, Tampa, and Boston on a regular basis?

Toronto had a better showing vs the rest of the NHL than they did against the “easy” teams in the Atlantic- this was a topic of debate heading into the playoffs.

As for the Leafs, Bruins, and Tampa getting eliminated- the team with the easiest road to the finals is going to do better, while teams facing tougher competition get worn out. It’s unfortunate that the NHL had 3 teams in the top-6 of the league face each other in the first 2 rounds.

That’s weird, I thought the top division in hockey was the one that had won the last 3 Stanley Cups. Not the one who hasn’t sent a team to the SCF in the past 3 years and that has been won by a fluke team like Ottawa as recently as last year. Silly me!

 

[Mickey Marner]

In one season, perhaps. But over the course of multiple seasons, a goaltender who consistently faces that type of rubber and fatigue will see their performance falter.

Cam Talbot is a great example. His first 2 years with Edmonton, he faced a lot of shots, and did well. But this year, he broke down, and cost his team a playoff spot.

It’s very unlikely that Toronto will finish 4th in shots against and 20th in goals against (in descending order) again next year. You can disagree with me, but just wait and see. Their defensive performance as a whole will need to improve or their goals against will regress. There are Leafs fans who say this same thing.

Shot volume evidence in this post- https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/143561589/

Personally, I think it's just a matter of score effects and divisibility. But it holds true as a general rule.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Shot volume evidence in this post- https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/143561589/

Personally, I think it's just a matter of score effects and divisibility. But it holds true as a general rule.

GAA facing <29 shots: 2.44
GAA facing >30 shots: 2.88

Toronto allowed 33.9 shots against per game last season and 2.80 goals against per game. That is what’s not sustainable.

 

[Gary Nylund]

In one season, perhaps. But over the course of multiple seasons, a goaltender who consistently faces that type of rubber and fatigue will see their performance falter.

Cam Talbot is a great example. His first 2 years with Edmonton, he faced a lot of shots, and did well. But this year, he broke down, and cost his team a playoff spot.

It’s very unlikely that Toronto will finish 4th in shots against and 20th in goals against (in descending order) again next year. You can disagree with me, but just wait and see. Their defensive performance as a whole will need to improve or their goals against will regress. There are Leafs fans who say this same thing.

That’s weird, I thought the top division in hockey was the one that had won the last 3 Stanley Cups. Not the one who hasn’t sent a team to the SCF in the past 3 years and that has been won by a fluke team like Ottawa as recently as last year. Silly me!

Shots, GA, who made the finals in the past, Ottawa ... it's all noise.

The Leafs got 105 points last year. If the over/under betting line is set at 105, I'd take the over without thinking about it too hard. I would also say it's more likely than not that we finally break through and win at least one PO series next year. Nylander, Marner and Matthews, these are all players who are likely to better next year and not just because Matthews is likely to play more games than he did this season. Then there's Johnsson, Kapanen and Dermott who also could make major contributions next season. And then of course there's Tavares.

Oh that's right, no more JVR and his 54 points and +1 in 81 games, I guess we're screwed.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Shots, GA, who made the finals in the past, Ottawa ... it's all noise.

The Leafs got 105 points last year. If the over/under betting line is set at 105, I'd take the over without thinking about it too hard. I would also say it's more likely than not that we finally break through and win at least one PO series next year. Nylander, Marner and Matthews, these are all players who are likely to better next year and not just because Matthews is likely to play more games than he did this season. Then there's Johnsson, Kapanen and Dermott who also could make major contributions next season. And then of course there's Tavares.

Oh that's right, no more JVR and his 54 points and +1 in 81 games, I guess we're screwed.

Yeah, literal facts and statistics are all noise, but you listing a bunch of names is...

 

[Legion34]

GAA facing <29 shots: 2.44
GAA facing >30 shots: 2.88

Toronto allowed 33.9 shots against per game last season and 2.80 goals against per game. That is what’s not sustainable.

You could argue Mac. Sure. Andersen has been exactly on pace for over 120 games straight. I would argue that it is pretty sustainable.

We watched Joseph and bel four do it for a decade.

Just because you want something to be true doesn’t make it true.

 

[glucker]

In one season, perhaps. But over the course of multiple seasons, a goaltender who consistently faces that type of rubber and fatigue will see their performance falter.

Cam Talbot is a great example. His first 2 years with Edmonton, he faced a lot of shots, and did well. But this year, he broke down, and cost his team a playoff spot.

It’s very unlikely that Toronto will finish 4th in shots against and 20th in goals against (in descending order) again next year. You can disagree with me, but just wait and see. Their defensive performance as a whole will need to improve or their goals against will regress. There are Leafs fans who say this same thing.

Nobody is denying their defensive play needs to improve. That’s a big part of the reason why JVR and Bozak weren’t coming back this year. They leak shots like a spaghetti strainer that faced off against an AK47. JT, on the other hand is a top-5 center in the league with a strong 2-way game.
The rest of the core very young, and has a coach that values defense guiding them. They will improve. They’re already decent at limiting high-danger chances, their biggest problem is their defensive zone exits, and that’s not something that just adding a middle-of-the-pack UFA dman will fix, that’s more to do with getting the forwards to help the defense- and that’s something that takes a bit of time for younger players.

It’s crazy, the Leafs were 4th highest in dzone starts, and still finished 2nd in 5-on-5 scoring. Given that their main flaw is exiting the zone, improving that aspect will not only decrease the number if shots Freddy faces, but likely increase their already potent offense.

That’s weird, I thought the top division in hockey was the one that had won the last 3 Stanley Cups. Not the one who hasn’t sent a team to the SCF in the past 3 years and that has been won by a fluke team like Ottawa as recently as last year. Silly me!

You’re forgiven.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah, literal facts and statistics are all noise, but you listing a bunch of names is...

Other than Tavares, I've watched every NHL game these guys have played so to me, they're a whole lot more than just names. And I've watched Tavares enough that to me, he's more than just a name to me too. But if they're just names to you, that's fine.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Reilly, Kadri, Andersen, Gardiner. Easy. Throw in Marleau for that matter because I'd sure as hell pay him $6.5M for another 2 years before I'd pay JVR $7M for 7. Oh and as easy as that was, now I get to say Tavares too. Enjoy your evening.

 

[supermann_98]

 

[Cor]

*Me Watching Tavares and Matthews skating together at the Leafs Practice Rink*

 

[The Shadow]

Buckle up boys. The next decade in Toronto will be incredible

 

[The Shadow]

What's going on? Page 39 and a new debate?

Somethin something ramble ramble Tavares is no longer a franchise centre, they are screwed for the cap and their defence sucks

 

[Cor]

Maaaaaan.

That scene of Dubas and Shanny hugging (looks like when Dubas was telling Shanny they got him) followed by the scene of Babcock’s like disbelief laugh and smile,..... that did got me.

That’s awesome

 

[Marshy]

The salt just melts away. It's like nothing can tarnish the joy I've felt the past 8 days.

 

[Cor]

Like f***, just thinking, next year, will be the first year, since like 2002, where there is a legitimate chance that this years season opener will be Game 1 of a Stanley Cup season. That's wild!

 

[Grub]

*Me Watching Tavares and Matthews skating together at the Leafs Practice Rink*

And me watching Jay Beagle & Antoine Roussel skating together at the Canuck Practice Rink*