Prospect Info: Top Shelf Prospects: Winnipeg Jets

[EastRiver]

(3) coaching.

And this has been slowly turning from a hypothesis of mine to possibly being a fact the deeper I look.
Not necessarily system-wise, but some key choices (no not talking just Burmistrov vs Jokinen, that's a dead horse)



There was a bit of decline throughout the season.
The Jets were outplaying many of their opponents early with some AHL goaltending.
Pavelec got better for a bit and Jets went on a run, but eventually both started sinking.

What does the Y Axis represent in this graph?

 

[garret9]

What does the Y Axis represent in this graph?

Fenwick Close = percentage of non-blocked shot attempts when the game is within 2 points (to reduce score effects from a runaway game)

>50% good, < 50% bad...

It's currently the best proxy for scoring chances and predictor of future success. 3/4 conference finalists were in top 4 for FenClose.

 

[BizZombie]

Fenwick Close = percentage of non-blocked shot attempts when the game is within 2 points (to reduce score effects from a runaway game)

>50% good, < 50% bad...

It's currently the best proxy for scoring chances and predictor of future success. 3/4 conference finalists were in top 4 for FenClose.

Running a regression line through the graph shows an overall downward trend. That is not good. The Jets as a team were not carrying the play, as indicated by the shots. The Jets simply did not have enough positive Fenwick close players who controlled play through puck possession as proxied by shots.

 

[truck]

Running a regression line through the graph shows an overall downward trend. That is not good. The Jets as a team were not carrying the play, as indicated by the shots. The Jets simply did not have enough positive Fenwick close players who controlled play through puck possession as proxied by shots.

Likely factors in decreasing possession:

Losing Toby
Trading Poni
Benching Welly
Benching Burmi / cutting ice time
Promoting Wright
Icing Meech
Icing Thorburn

 

[BizZombie]

Likely factors in decreasing possession:

Losing Toby
Trading Poni
Benching Welly
Benching Burmi / cutting ice time
Promoting Wright
Icing Meech
Icing Thorburn

Losing Toby: Back now, and hopefully at top form again
Trading Poni: Was not all that with NJ either
Benching Welly: Was better than anyone akin to glovewear
Benching Burmi / cutting ice time: Olli rescues with mean regression
Promoting Wright: Back to Line 4
Icing Meech: Long gone
Icing Thorburn: Well, how can you count out The Nose

 

[KingBogo]

and that's fair, i just get really tired of seeing this franchise tied to situations that are not analogous, drawing comparisons that are favorable but realistically pretty out of line, and more then anything, the excuses.

I still believe if were trying to win a cup with LLW as our load bearers, they have to get in this year. If were trying to just be a solid team for now, and then go deeper with a new core (kane-bogo,schief-trouba/etc) then that's fine, and not making the playoffs is acceptable.

I just feel that in either case, if the don't make the playoffs, they should be making some significant roster changes, with either getting different pieces to compete now, or trying to move some of these guys that may be "less" core for futures (buff/etc) or for christ sakes at least get a god damn goalie.

either way IMO, if they don't make the playoffs this year, standing pat is not an option.


and to try and generally steer us back ontopic of prospects: i'm thrilled with how this team has drafted so far since coming back to the peg (with the exception of a few picks here and there...namely Sutter)

I think this is a much more reasonable hope. There is just not enough there to support LLW at this time to be a contender now. My thinking is that this team's window as it is currently constructed is 3-5 years from now. By that time LLW is ideally still effective but is your 2nd line behind Kane-Scheifele- ? (Petan) and the d likely is Toby-Bogo and Trouba-Morrissey. Personally I think Buff will be gone by then, but maybe for the ? on the 1st line. We also need other guys like Lowry & O'Dell to become a better bottom 6 then we currently have. And I agree we need one of our goalie's to develop into a top 10 starter. I would love shouting "Helly" at games. The coaching situation will work its way out by then. Noel will either prove capable of taking this team to the next level or will be replaced.

While making the playoffs is not absolutely crucial this year I would argue the 2nd generation should be able to help us get there this year if this dream is to come true.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Just a comment on these advanced stats regarding puck possession numbers....

not every team has to be detroit, if success were measured strictly by puck possession, the sedins and the Canucks should have won the Stanley Cup four times by now...

 

[truck]

Just a comment on these advanced stats regarding puck possession numbers....

not every team has to be detroit, if success were measured strictly by puck possession, the sedins and the Canucks should have won the Stanley Cup four times by now...

The Nucks were at their best possession wise when they went to to cup finals.

Possession negative teams rarely go deep. Possession in these terms jame st means out shooting and out chancing the opposition (or possessing the puck more) it is a key element of winning hockey.

 

[buggs]

Perhaps no rumors surfaced because Chevy wasn't shopping.

He and Noel seem to like Pav a lot. Adding Goalie Bob for a 2nd (instead of drafting Lukas Sutter) would have been nice. One of our writers at AIH was begging for this move.

Among those FAs, Dan Ellis would have been fine by me - I said as much during that off season. He isn't great, but he would have been cheap and he wouldn't have required term.

Yeah, I'd agree with the notion that it didn't seem like they were shopping. They really, really like Pavs. A few times I've questioned why Mason and subsequently Montoya didn't get more starts. Didn't make all that much sense given it isn't particularly difficult to notice the awful record on back-to-backs with Pavelec. Really not sure why they don't start another goalie more. The stats show the issue and it was replicated time and again over two seasons.

Just to play devil's advocate though, if you signed Ellis what is your thought as a GM going forward? Are you looking at going year by year with a goalie from the FA pool or who would you be targeting? You more or less need a legit starter to play 50 games. Ellis is that guy short term, but what's the long term plan.

Not intentionally trying to be a Chevy apologist though I'm sure it's coming across that way.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

The Nucks were at their best possession wise when they went to to cup finals.

Possession negative teams rarely go deep. Possession in these terms jame st means out shooting and out chancing the opposition (or possessing the puck more) it is a key element of winning hockey.

I wouldn't argue its a bad stat, but its not the be all end all. I don't see how it accounts for a team like the Canucks, who don't go to the net enough, skate around the perimeter and create a bunch of low percentage scoring chances.

I followed the canucks closely when I lived in Vancouver, this is why they couldn't win it all, no net presence when it really counts and their offense disappeared entirely. That series against Boston....ugh......

 

[Grind]

I wouldn't argue its a bad stat, but its not the be all end all. I don't see how it accounts for a team like the Canucks, who don't go to the net enough, skate around the perimeter and create a bunch of low percentage scoring chances.

I followed the canucks closely when I lived in Vancouver, this is why they couldn't win it all, no net presence when it really counts and their offense disappeared entirely. That series against Boston....ugh......

while no stat is the be all end all, Fenwick is essentially, one of the best of the bunch. It's a pretty telling factor.

Also, Puck Posession doesn't mean you play a pass heavy, hold onto the puck in o-zone, "puck posession" game, it simply mean your creating more scoring chances against the opposition then they are against you (which has been shown to be the best indicator of success).

if you consistantly get the puck, drive the net off the rush and take a shot, and your doing that more often then your letting it happen to you, you'll have good"puck posession" numbers.

I just wanted to be clear that the term "puck posession" here is not tied in anyway to what a lot of MSM call a "puck posession game". I apologies if i'm off on that assessment, but it read like we were tieing the two together.

 

[puck stoppa]

Puck possession all starts with faceoffs, and we are not that good on the dot and Scheif may struggle there this year. It just boggled my mind how good Boston was at faceoffs in the playoffs, I hope Little, Joker and Slater can have a strong year in that area.

 

[truck]

Puck possession all starts with faceoffs, and we are not that good on the dot and Scheif may struggle there this year. It just boggled my mind how good Boston was at faceoffs in the playoffs, I hope Little, Joker and Slater can have a strong year in that area.

I think the impact of faceoffs is overrated.

That said, I'd rather the Jets win em. Wellwood not taking draws maddened me.

 

[puck stoppa]

I think the impact of faceoffs is overrated.

That said, I'd rather the Jets win em. Wellwood not taking draws maddened me.

Don't tell Leaf fans that, game 7 vs Boston, they couldn't win a draw the last 5 min.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

while no stat is the be all end all, Fenwick is essentially, one of the best of the bunch. It's a pretty telling factor.

Also, Puck Posession doesn't mean you play a pass heavy, hold onto the puck in o-zone, "puck posession" game, it simply mean your creating more scoring chances against the opposition then they are against you (which has been shown to be the best indicator of success).

if you consistantly get the puck, drive the net off the rush and take a shot, and your doing that more often then your letting it happen to you, you'll have good"puck posession" numbers.

I just wanted to be clear that the term "puck posession" here is not tied in anyway to what a lot of MSM call a "puck posession game". I apologies if i'm off on that assessment, but it read like we were tieing the two together.

A strong explanation, thanks. One thing I do agree with you about is the goaltending issue. I was hoping someone could come in to push pavs, this may be another thread though.

 

[garret9]

Just a comment on these advanced stats regarding puck possession numbers....

not every team has to be detroit, if success were measured strictly by puck possession, the sedins and the Canucks should have won the Stanley Cup four times by now...

The thing is the possession isn't measured by time with puck but actually approximated using scoring chances and shot attempts.
This is why it doesn't cover just the Detroit models and why last season LAK and BOS and CHI were in the top 4 even though they are all stylistically very different teams.
The truth is Fenwick Close is a stronger predictor of future success and standings more so than GF/GA or the current standings, so while it's difficult to see the why/how a team is + or 0 it can still be very useful in determining expectations.