Prospect Info: Top Shelf Prospects: Winnipeg Jets

[VictoriaJetsFan]

that's not what i meant. I am in no ways faulting the current groups drafting.

Just saying "st louis and la were out for five years and are now very good, we're going to be like them" would be nice, but why do you get to reset the clock? Why didn't LA get to reset the clock? because the situation wasn't analogous, so trying to tie the two together is pointless and achieves nothing.

THere are trends, that show when a team bottomes out with a top 5 pick, it needs to get into the playoffs within a certain time frame. Our top 5 picks were Kane and Bogo, and it's already been to long based on those trends for this team to catapult itself into relevancy anytime soon. ALl i'm saying is, if you want to point to the success of thsoe teams, then you have to admit this team has failed at doing that already.

That's not the fault of the current management core, but the fact remains this team isn't in the position to grab super star talent anymore (Ie top 5 picks) to jumpstart that cycle. It wasn' int hat position when the team got here in year one. If it had, you'd have a completely valid point of saying "hey we're rebuilding, we've got five years before we have to make it to the show". The point is, five years has come and gone. WE're trending closer to the calgary flames and minnesota wild and columbus bluejackets then st louis or LA. That's not to say we can't right the ship (and i'd agree that we've started), but it does show that the timeline is off.

the entire core of Ladd lWheeler Buff and Enstrom will be well past their prime by the time were legitimately competing for a cup if we aren't talking a playoffs or bust approach this year (note, i'm not saying selling the farm, but if this cores gonna go far it needs to start now).

, that can be fine, if your intent on building a pereniall champ a-la detroit, but there's only one detroit (a testimate to how difficult it is) so that might be setting the sights too high. I can agree that its allright if we get in and hang around and then push with a new core later, but my point is that this core is essentially out of "rebuild time".

Evander Kane and sach bogosian weren't drafted in 2011 and 2012, arbitrarily acting like they did doesn't get you anywhere.


The simple logistics of a salary cap system, an entry draft, and the time of players peak performance leads to a fairly repetitive cycle in what "types" of teams go deep. A timeline is becoming predictable, and currently, we aren't on it.

That's not a dig on this organization, it's an objective look at what types of teams succeed and understanding their rebuild/push cycles. Maybe we're the exception that breaks the mold, but i always prefer the safe bet to the exception.

I actually did research the Blues draft picks in the five years they missed the playoffs, they had one number 1 pick (erik Johnson) and other picks they had were in the teens...a couple years they had 2 first rounders.

I believe they get to reset the clock because they moved cities, unlike the Blues and Kings. This is a huge change, not sure why you won't accept or even entertain that part of the argument... especially when coming from a financially broken team (Atlanta Spirit or whatever) with very little fan support and no hope of spending to the cap.

I do agree with you about the risk of an aging core however. In fact I am quite concerned about it. I think by the time Trouba and Schiefle are in prime time some core guys will be on the decline. The two I have the highest concerns about are Buff and Enstrom. Enstrom because I cringe when he goes into the corner, and Buff due to commitment/physical shape issues. Is Buff at 32 or 33 going to be that effective? I don't know.

I would have prefered trading one of them for a potential core youth player, like a Alex Barkov or Lindholm from the recent draft. I loved the Buff for the Schenn brothers rumors as well. This could easily still happen in the next year. Also, maybe Enstrom and Buff age better than I an giving them credit for, Enstrom can really skate and defenceman like that can play at an elite level well into their 30's.

There are way too many unknown's yet to get super stressed about this issue. In regards to Wheeler and Ladd, I personally think they will age well. Ladd has that type of intangibles that he will be effective for some time. Wheeler looks like a late bloomer to me and should perform at a high level for three or four years.

Another quick point about the Blues. They tend to rely on depth and are looking for an elite center. They never did score that top 5 super high draft pick that really runs the show like a Getzlaf or Toews or Datsyuk. They win games with depth. Reminds me of the great Devils teams or the Bruins of 2011. Those teams won with overwhelming defence, Guys like Stevens, Niedermayer, Chara......there are more than one way to skin a cat.

Trouba and Bogo could get to that level for the Jets....Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk could bring the Blues to that level....we just don't know yet.

 

[surixon]

that's not what i meant. I am in no ways faulting the current groups drafting.

Just saying "st louis and la were out for five years and are now very good, we're going to be like them" would be nice, but why do you get to reset the clock? Why didn't LA get to reset the clock? because the situation wasn't analogous, so trying to tie the two together is pointless and achieves nothing.

THere are trends, that show when a team bottomes out with a top 5 pick, it needs to get into the playoffs within a certain time frame. Our top 5 picks were Kane and Bogo, and it's already been to long based on those trends for this team to catapult itself into relevancy anytime soon. ALl i'm saying is, if you want to point to the success of thsoe teams, then you have to admit this team has failed at doing that already.

That's not the fault of the current management core, but the fact remains this team isn't in the position to grab super star talent anymore (Ie top 5 picks) to jumpstart that cycle. It wasn' int hat position when the team got here in year one. If it had, you'd have a completely valid point of saying "hey we're rebuilding, we've got five years before we have to make it to the show". The point is, five years has come and gone. WE're trending closer to the calgary flames and minnesota wild and columbus bluejackets then st louis or LA. That's not to say we can't right the ship (and i'd agree that we've started), but it does show that the timeline is off.

the entire core of Ladd lWheeler Buff and Enstrom will be well past their prime by the time were legitimately competing for a cup if we aren't talking a playoffs or bust approach this year (note, i'm not saying selling the farm, but if this cores gonna go far it needs to start now).

, that can be fine, if your intent on building a pereniall champ a-la detroit, but there's only one detroit (a testimate to how difficult it is) so that might be setting the sights too high. I can agree that its allright if we get in and hang around and then push with a new core later, but my point is that this core is essentially out of "rebuild time".

Evander Kane and sach bogosian weren't drafted in 2011 and 2012, arbitrarily acting like they did doesn't get you anywhere.


The simple logistics of a salary cap system, an entry draft, and the time of players peak performance leads to a fairly repetitive cycle in what "types" of teams go deep. A timeline is becoming predictable, and currently, we aren't on it.

That's not a dig on this organization, it's an objective look at what types of teams succeed and understanding their rebuild/push cycles. Maybe we're the exception that breaks the mold, but i always prefer the safe bet to the exception.

I think its a little premature to look at cycles like that. There are really only two teams that fit your mold in LA and Chicago. I can point to a team like Boston that doesn't even remotely follow your trend and they have a cup and a finals appearance. Strong teams like the Sharks and Flyers are years removed from lottery picks but are competitive due to strong drafting and trading. You raise St. Louis and I counter with Ottawa. The two teams have similar results but both were constructed much differently.

I think the whole tank for talent thing is getting a little over played. Many of the teams that I have listed above have shown that you can find elite talent through other means. Tanking also doesn't guarantee anything as the Oiler's, Avalanche and even Lightning outside of one run can attest to. I personally think that we are trying to follow the Boston, Ottawa Model myself. Now all we need to do is find a stellar goalie like they did lol.

 

[Grind]

I think its a little premature to look at cycles like that. There are really only two teams that fit your mold in LA and Chicago. I can point to a team like Boston that doesn't even remotely follow your trend and they have a cup and a finals appearance. Strong teams like the Sharks and Flyers are years removed from lottery picks but are competitive due to strong drafting and trading. You raise St. Louis and I counter with Ottawa. The two teams have similar results but both were constructed much differently.

I think the whole tank for talent thing is getting a little over played. Many of the teams that I have listed above have shown that you can find elite talent through other means. Tanking also doesn't guarantee anything as the Oiler's, Avalanche and even Lightning outside of one run can attest to. I personally think that we are trying to follow the Boston, Ottawa Model myself. Now all we need to do is find a stellar goalie like they did lol.

There was an article listed here at one point that showers the rebuild cycles. Everyteam essentially bottomed out at one point in the last twenty years besides Detroit. Every good team was back in the playoffs within five years or they fiddled around and never consistently got in or went deep.

Anyways at the end of the day I think folks are too willing to drop excuses on this franchise. I have maintained l

That this is the year they need to get it together. I will not follow nor accept the logic in maintaining how they havebif they finish out again. If they don't I hope for big changes.

I accept that the move. Was a big shift but it was not analogous to the start of a rebuild as literally no players changed. That's my issue when people draw a parallel to a situation we have nothing in common with.

Also apologies for thread hijacking.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Interesting debate gentleman..thanks for the feedback.

 

[garret9]

There was an article listed here at one point that showers the rebuild cycles. Everyteam essentially bottomed out at one point in the last twenty years besides Detroit. Every good team was back in the playoffs within five years or they fiddled around and never consistently got in or went deep.

Anyways at the end of the day I think folks are too willing to drop excuses on this franchise. I have maintained l

That this is the year they need to get it together. I will not follow nor accept the logic in maintaining how they havebif they finish out again. If they don't I hope for big changes.

I accept that the move. Was a big shift but it was not analogous to the start of a rebuild as literally no players changed. That's my issue when people draw a parallel to a situation we have nothing in common with.

Also apologies for thread hijacking.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/8/how-often-does-rebuilding-work
^this one

 

[sully1410]

... they fiddled around and never consistently got in or went deep...

that's what she said...

 

[KingBogo]

There was an article listed here at one point that showers the rebuild cycles. Everyteam essentially bottomed out at one point in the last twenty years besides Detroit. Every good team was back in the playoffs within five years or they fiddled around and never consistently got in or went deep.

Anyways at the end of the day I think folks are too willing to drop excuses on this franchise. I have maintained l

That this is the year they need to get it together. I will not follow nor accept the logic in maintaining how they havebif they finish out again. If they don't I hope for big changes.

I accept that the move. Was a big shift but it was not analogous to the start of a rebuild as literally no players changed. That's my issue when people draw a parallel to a situation we have nothing in common with.

Also apologies for thread hijacking.

I get where you are coming from Grind, but I also think you are being a little too rigid. The rebuild model you are talking about can't fully account for the impact of a team relocation and culture change. The Thrashers were a team flapping in the wind, with no plan or direction and a prospect cupboard almost completed devoid of any usable parts. Sure they had some valuable parts on the team, but so does every rebuilding team. If you factor in True North's publicly stated comments about the "accessing what we have year" and then lockout shortened season I think its fair to move the rebuilt theory back a year or 2.

After that I pretty much agree with what you are saying. But if we look at this year being year 3 instead of 5, or even split the difference and say year 4, then just maybe we are on track. I see this as a fair compromise considering this is the first year we are starting to see the team's top prospects ready to make the jump. We now have a pretty full prospect cupboard where we might see a 1/2 dozen key parts join the team over the next few years, while the parts already in place are still in their primes.

 

[Grind]

I get where you are coming from Grind, but I also think you are being a little too rigid. The rebuild model you are talking about can't fully account for the impact of a team relocation and culture change. The Thrashers were a team flapping in the wind, with no plan or direction and a prospect cupboard almost completed devoid of any usable parts. Sure they had some valuable parts on the team, but so does every rebuilding team. If you factor in True North's publicly stated comments about the "accessing what we have year" and then lockout shortened season I think its fair to move the rebuilt theory back a year or 2.

After that I pretty much agree with what you are saying. But if we look at this year being year 3 instead of 5, or even split the difference and say year 4, then just maybe we are on track. I see this as a fair compromise considering this is the first year we are starting to see the team's top prospects ready to make the jump. We now have a pretty full prospect cupboard where we might see a 1/2 dozen key parts join the team over the next few years, while the parts already in place are still in their primes.

and that's fair, i just get really tired of seeing this franchise tied to situations that are not analogous, drawing comparisons that are favorable but realistically pretty out of line, and more then anything, the excuses.

I still believe if were trying to win a cup with LLW as our load bearers, they have to get in this year. If were trying to just be a solid team for now, and then go deeper with a new core (kane-bogo,schief-trouba/etc) then that's fine, and not making the playoffs is acceptable.

I just feel that in either case, if the don't make the playoffs, they should be making some significant roster changes, with either getting different pieces to compete now, or trying to move some of these guys that may be "less" core for futures (buff/etc) or for christ sakes at least get a god damn goalie.

either way IMO, if they don't make the playoffs this year, standing pat is not an option.


and to try and generally steer us back ontopic of prospects: i'm thrilled with how this team has drafted so far since coming back to the peg (with the exception of a few picks here and there...namely Sutter)

 

[surixon]

and that's fair, i just get really tired of seeing this franchise tied to situations that are not analogous, drawing comparisons that are favorable but realistically pretty out of line, and more then anything, the excuses.

I still believe if were trying to win a cup with LLW as our load bearers, they have to get in this year. If were trying to just be a solid team for now, and then go deeper with a new core (kane-bogo,schief-trouba/etc) then that's fine, and not making the playoffs is acceptable.

I just feel that in either case, if the don't make the playoffs, they should be making some significant roster changes, with either getting different pieces to compete now, or trying to move some of these guys that may be "less" core for futures (buff/etc) or for christ sakes at least get a god damn goalie.

either way IMO, if they don't make the playoffs this year, standing pat is not an option.


and to try and generally steer us back ontopic of prospects: i'm thrilled with how this team has drafted so far since coming back to the peg (with the exception of a few picks here and there...namely Sutter)

I agree with this. I fully believe that we should be a playoff team this year and if we aren't then we have to retool some of our pieces. Buff and Pavs being the two that I'd move out. Heck we could make the playoffs and I'd still move Pavs out if we could bring in a quality guy.

 

[Guerzy]

I pretty well agree with the last two posts here by Grind and surixon.

I got thinking a bit, there has been so much talk and discussion over these summer months about the Jets core, their ages, how many seasons they have played together, when their "best before" date is set to expire, etc. Which got my wheels spinning a bit, and I began thinking of the St. Louis Blues and their road to where they are now. I thought to myself, that group seems to have been together a long while now too. And, from a player personnel/roster standpoint, perhaps this Jets core/team kind of resembles that Blues team a bit.

I looked back as if we were headed into the 2011-2012 NHL season, the year St. Louis’ core group took that step forward. I looked at their core players, their ages and how long they had been together for. Not that this would define or set anything in stone for our Jets as they head into the 2013-2014 season, but I wanted an idea as to whether or not we were at all comparable as teams in different years. We’re not spot on, but, I think we’re close, I see some similarities.


Winnipeg Jets core as we head into the 2013-2014 season

Player|Age|# of seasons with team
Andrew Ladd|27|Entering 4th season
Bryan Little|25| Entering 7th season
Blake Wheeler|27|Entering 3rd (full) season
Evander Kane|22|Entering 5th season
Mark Scheifele|20|Entering 1st season
Tobias Enstrom|28|Entering 7th season
Dustin Byfuglien|28|Entering 4th season
Zach Bogosian|23|Entering 6th season
Ondrej Pavelec|26|Entering 5th season

St. Louis Blues core as they were headed into the 2011-2012 season

Player|Age|# of seasons with team
David Backes|27|Entering 5th season
Alex Steen|27|Entering 4th season
Anthony Stewart|23|Entering 1st (full) season
Patrik Berglund|23|Entering 4th season
David Perron|23|Entering 5th season
TJ Oshie|24|Entering 4th season
Alex Pietrangelo|21|Entering 2nd season
Kevin Shattenkirk|22|Entering 1st (full) season
Barret Jackman|30|Entering 9th season
Jaroslav Halak|26|Entering 2nd season

Some random thoughts,

- I have added Mark Scheifele to the mix here for the Jets because as of right now he is penciled in as the no. 2 or 3 center, and wherever he plays in those roles he'll need to be reliable in order for the Jets to endure success, in my opinion. Unfair? yes, for a rookie and a kid, certainly. But... who else do we have right now to slot in to those key positions? Unfortunately, Mark appears the most legitimate option at this point in time.

- St. Louis had the luxury of a pretty proven and reliable Halak.

- Elliott heading in to 2011-12 was an unproven goaltender for the most part. He had been an average goaltender to this point, with SV% falling between .893 and .909 when playing 30+ games. It might be safe to say his solid season in 11-12 was more so due to the system and team in front of him than the goaltender he truly is.

- It must be stated that the core of Backes, Perron, Berglund, Oshie, Steen and Jackman did indeed make the playoffs in 2008-09, getting swept in 4 games. They did however go on to miss the playoffs for the next two seasons.

- I think it's safe to say Hitchcock trumps Noel in terms of systems and coaching. A pretty huge factor.


Obviously the Blues headed into the 2011-2012 season had a couple things this Jets group does not. They had a 4 playoff games worth of experience as a core group a couple years prior (08-09), they had Halak who had proven he could carry a team and they had Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. Although a coach with a short shelf-life, Hitchcock's systems play is quite good.


This was really just for fun and to see maybe if these two teams in different times were at all comparable, even just a bit. I think in terms of how long they have been together and their respective ages, they look kind of close.

St. Louis really took that next step as a core group during the 2011-2012 season. Obviously the big thing this season for this Jets group is to make the playoffs so we can begin the playoff experience that is ever so valuable, even if you lose in the first round two years in a row like the LA Kings did before barely making the playoffs as the 8th seed in 2012 and winning it all.

I think it's also worth noting that neither team (13-14 Jets or 11-12 Blues) have an elite star player, a big offensive contributor, nor does either team have the "a true stud down the middle" at the center position that is deemed so critical for playoff teams these days, and seems to be more of an issue for Western Conference teams as there are some big guns down the middle in the West.

... Which leads me to, why I think this Jets core stands a chance here. Again, many will say Noel is on a whole other level(s) below in comparison to Ken Hitchcock, and that is true in my opinion. But in terms of age and how many years this 2013-2014 Jets team has been together in comparison to that 2011-2012 Blues team, and how each roster is constructed... it's not all that far off, though I understand some things are different.

Maybe what I am saying means squat, maybe these two teams aren't remotely comparable. But for an optimistic guy like me, I think until proven incorrectly I am going to think maybe this Jets team can follow in the footsteps of the 2011-2012 St. Louis Blues. At least I hope they can because I see some similar traits between the two teams and how they're built.

 

[buggs]

Nice post Guerzy and nice comparison.

Difference: Halak/Elliott vs. Pavelec/Montoya? In addition to coaching differences? Will that be too much to overcome? Sure hope not.

 

[Guerzy]

I'd say it's certainly a big hurdle to overcome, not impossible, though. Another thing is St. Louis edges us a bit in terms of forward depth, but again, we could be closer to them in this comparison if a couple things fall in place for us, not impossible as we're not talking about elite talents here.

 

[Grind]

I'd say it's certainly a big hurdle to overcome, not impossible, though. Another thing is St. Louis edges us a bit in terms of forward depth, but again, we could be closer to them in this comparison if a couple things fall in place for us, not impossible as we're not talking about elite talents here.

see, i see some pretty big negatives in there.

1. goalie deficiency is huge. astronomical even. in pav's best season he's close halaks worst.

2. Coach (though not as big as goalie) could potentially be pretty big

3. Age. We're a full season behind in average age/exp to st louis, and that including the "ancient" outlier in barret jackman.

to break it down further, we're carrying 5 players with 5+ year sof xp, they carried 3 (including jackman).

if we were to cut jcakman out that drops to 2 at 5 + and a full 1.5 seasons behind in average.


Unfortunately i see just as many differences as similarities. they were carrying 5 players with less then 3 season, we will have MAYBE 1-2.

The main similarity i see is "style" of player and team build (not top heavy). looking at that list makes me really sad we held onto pav last season, had we gotten a goaly who performed at league average last year (even the year before) we would have been right in the wheelhouse of the stlouis team.


gaaah...that just makes me hate our goaltending situation even more

 

[Guerzy]

see, i see some pretty big negatives in there.

1. goalie deficiency is huge. astronomical even. in pav's best season he's close halaks worst.

2. Coach (though not as big as goalie) could potentially be pretty big

3. Age. We're a full season behind in average age/exp to st louis, and that including the "ancient" outlier in barret jackman.

to break it down further, we're carrying 5 players with 5+ year sof xp, they carried 3 (including jackman).

if we were to cut jcakman out that drops to 2 at 5 + and a full 1.5 seasons behind in average.


Unfortunately i see just as many differences as similarities. they were carrying 5 players with less then 3 season, we will have MAYBE 1-2.

The main similarity i see is "style" of player and team build (not top heavy). looking at that list makes me really sad we held onto pav last season, had we gotten a goaly who performed at league average last year (even the year before) we would have been right in the wheelhouse of the stlouis team.


gaaah...that just makes me hate our goaltending situation even more

Agree on all points, really. We aren't an identical comparison by any means, and there are certainly flaws to our team be it coaching or goaltending and being a shade older as a group/core.

I still think we can take that step forward, though. I think as Scheifele and Trouba become more key pieces, and that's a big *if* of course, but many teams are banking on certain things like that, or most anyway. I don't know, I like our group here and with young, talented players on the cusp of making it, not to mention the core pretty well being locked in for the next 3+ seasons, I think we'll make way just in time, to be honest. Goaltending does scare me though, yes.

That's just me though, the optimist speaking. Perhaps it isn't realistic or perhaps it doesn't happen. I just have a feeling this group is going to turn out to be alright.

 

[ps241]

see, i see some pretty big negatives in there.

1. goalie deficiency is huge. astronomical even. in pav's best season he's close halaks worst.

2. Coach (though not as big as goalie) could potentially be pretty big

Ok I am going to attempt to wrap a quote so here goes

Good post Grind but one point of encouragment is your #1 and #2 differences I do not see as huge hurdles since they are single point problems with decent supply chain solutions.

Goalie performance to date is a hole for the Jets and probably cost us a playoff spot last year. That can be fixed with one player signing. I give Pavs part of this season to step up or next year we need to make big changes here.

On the coach I think we can see by some recent hires that it can be corrected quickly if need be by examples like the additon of Sutter in LA mid season in a cup winning year, or Hitch in St Louis which kick started an instant turn around.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Missing training camp last year and 30 plus games of the regular season is a factor that should not be forgotten and set things back...

 

[Grind]

Missing training camp last year and 30 plus games of the regular season is a factor that should not be forgotten and set things back...

see i don't like that because everyone else experienced it. If it happened to everyone, it no longer a defining issue.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

see i don't like that because everyone else experienced it. If it happened to everyone, it no longer a defining issue.

Not fair....A veteran team like Detroit can take time off and not skip a beat, a team like the jets were probably hurt the most by no training camp, because the first one was so hectic being the first in their new city. Young teams need that prep time/team building. I think the jets sorely missed that time to evaluate players. Each team is unique, the jets probably needed it more than any team in the league.

We'll see in about a month or so, but Jets fans should be pretty stoked bout it this year, especially with all of the new draft picks. I think you will see this reflected in player quotes in about a month.

 

[Grind]

Not fair....A veteran team like Detroit can take time off and not skip a beat, a team like the jets were probably hurt the most by no training camp, because the first one was so hectic being the first in their new city. Young teams need that prep time/team building. I think the jets sorely missed that time to evaluate players. Each team is unique, the jets probably needed it more than any team in the league.

We'll see in about a month or so, but Jets fans should be pretty stoked bout it this year, especially with all of the new draft picks. I think you will see this reflected in player quotes in about a month.

I agree with this, this is the first time we finally get a real full offseason, training camp, etc etc etc with some of our picks pushing for roster spots. I'm really excited to watch the training camp drama unfold this fall, i just hope it yields the results i feel are necessary

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I pretty well agree with the last two posts here by Grind and surixon.

I got thinking a bit, there has been so much talk and discussion over these summer months about the Jets core, their ages, how many seasons they have played together, when their "best before" date is set to expire, etc. Which got my wheels spinning a bit, and I began thinking of the St. Louis Blues and their road to where they are now. I thought to myself, that group seems to have been together a long while now too. And, from a player personnel/roster standpoint, perhaps this Jets core/team kind of resembles that Blues team a bit.

I looked back as if we were headed into the 2011-2012 NHL season, the year St. Louis’ core group took that step forward. I looked at their core players, their ages and how long they had been together for. Not that this would define or set anything in stone for our Jets as they head into the 2013-2014 season, but I wanted an idea as to whether or not we were at all comparable as teams in different years. We’re not spot on, but, I think we’re close, I see some similarities.


Winnipeg Jets core as we head into the 2013-2014 season

Player|Age|# of seasons with team
Andrew Ladd|27|Entering 4th season
Bryan Little|25| Entering 7th season
Blake Wheeler|27|Entering 3rd (full) season
Evander Kane|22|Entering 5th season
Mark Scheifele|20|Entering 1st season
Tobias Enstrom|28|Entering 7th season
Dustin Byfuglien|28|Entering 4th season
Zach Bogosian|23|Entering 6th season
Ondrej Pavelec|26|Entering 5th season

St. Louis Blues core as they were headed into the 2011-2012 season

Player|Age|# of seasons with team
David Backes|27|Entering 5th season
Alex Steen|27|Entering 4th season
Anthony Stewart|23|Entering 1st (full) season
Patrik Berglund|23|Entering 4th season
David Perron|23|Entering 5th season
TJ Oshie|24|Entering 4th season
Alex Pietrangelo|21|Entering 2nd season
Kevin Shattenkirk|22|Entering 1st (full) season
Barret Jackman|30|Entering 9th season
Jaroslav Halak|26|Entering 2nd season

Some random thoughts,

- I have added Mark Scheifele to the mix here for the Jets because as of right now he is penciled in as the no. 2 or 3 center, and wherever he plays in those roles he'll need to be reliable in order for the Jets to endure success, in my opinion. Unfair? yes, for a rookie and a kid, certainly. But... who else do we have right now to slot in to those key positions? Unfortunately, Mark appears the most legitimate option at this point in time.

- St. Louis had the luxury of a pretty proven and reliable Halak.

- Elliott heading in to 2011-12 was an unproven goaltender for the most part. He had been an average goaltender to this point, with SV% falling between .893 and .909 when playing 30+ games. It might be safe to say his solid season in 11-12 was more so due to the system and team in front of him than the goaltender he truly is.

- It must be stated that the core of Backes, Perron, Berglund, Oshie, Steen and Jackman did indeed make the playoffs in 2008-09, getting swept in 4 games. They did however go on to miss the playoffs for the next two seasons.

- I think it's safe to say Hitchcock trumps Noel in terms of systems and coaching. A pretty huge factor.


Obviously the Blues headed into the 2011-2012 season had a couple things this Jets group does not. They had a 4 playoff games worth of experience as a core group a couple years prior (08-09), they had Halak who had proven he could carry a team and they had Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. Although a coach with a short shelf-life, Hitchcock's systems play is quite good.


This was really just for fun and to see maybe if these two teams in different times were at all comparable, even just a bit. I think in terms of how long they have been together and their respective ages, they look kind of close.

St. Louis really took that next step as a core group during the 2011-2012 season. Obviously the big thing this season for this Jets group is to make the playoffs so we can begin the playoff experience that is ever so valuable, even if you lose in the first round two years in a row like the LA Kings did before barely making the playoffs as the 8th seed in 2012 and winning it all.

I think it's also worth noting that neither team (13-14 Jets or 11-12 Blues) have an elite star player, a big offensive contributor, nor does either team have the "a true stud down the middle" at the center position that is deemed so critical for playoff teams these days, and seems to be more of an issue for Western Conference teams as there are some big guns down the middle in the West.

... Which leads me to, why I think this Jets core stands a chance here. Again, many will say Noel is on a whole other level(s) below in comparison to Ken Hitchcock, and that is true in my opinion. But in terms of age and how many years this 2013-2014 Jets team has been together in comparison to that 2011-2012 Blues team, and how each roster is constructed... it's not all that far off, though I understand some things are different.

Maybe what I am saying means squat, maybe these two teams aren't remotely comparable. But for an optimistic guy like me, I think until proven incorrectly I am going to think maybe this Jets team can follow in the footsteps of the 2011-2012 St. Louis Blues. At least I hope they can because I see some similar traits between the two teams and how they're built.

So I just took the average ages and compared both of them..here are the numbers:

Jets: 25.1
Blues: 25.1

Rather ironic I thought...I did subtract david perron from the Blues list however, as he has been traded. Don't know enough about MSP to say wether he belongs in the core....

I think at this point a cynic would say the Jets core has massively underperformed compared to the Blues....an optimist would say our core has several years of prime time upcoming...

 

[peg]

Not fair....A veteran team like Detroit can take time off and not skip a beat, a team like the jets were probably hurt the most by no training camp, because the first one was so hectic being the first in their new city. Young teams need that prep time/team building. I think the jets sorely missed that time to evaluate players. Each team is unique, the jets probably needed it more than any team in the league.

We'll see in about a month or so, but Jets fans should be pretty stoked bout it this year, especially with all of the new draft picks. I think you will see this reflected in player quotes in about a month.

I'm a bit confused by this. The Jets mid season were sitting on top of their division and then faltered near the end. I could see this as being an excuse if we got off to a slow start, but we didn't. Primary reasons we missed the playoffs were (1) not enough depth to cope with injuries and (2) mediocre net minding.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I'm a bit confused by this. The Jets mid season were sitting on top of their division and then faltered near the end. I could see this as being an excuse if we got off to a slow start, but we didn't. Primary reasons we missed the playoffs were (1) not enough depth to cope with injuries and (2) mediocre net minding.

I don't recall exactly, but I believe our record after 10 games was weak...I consider that a slow start. Also, being near the top of the league's weakest division is not that terribly relevant. The lack of depth and weak goaltending were for sure contributing factors.

My point is a full training camp would have been an advantage to the jets management in addressing the issue. Easier to find another goalie pre-Xmas than in a compressed schedule, I would think.

 

[garret9]

I'm a bit confused by this. The Jets mid season were sitting on top of their division and then faltered near the end. I could see this as being an excuse if we got off to a slow start, but we didn't. Primary reasons we missed the playoffs were (1) not enough depth to cope with injuries and (2) mediocre net minding.

(3) coaching.

And this has been slowly turning from a hypothesis of mine to possibly being a fact the deeper I look.
Not necessarily system-wise, but some key choices (no not talking just Burmistrov vs Jokinen, that's a dead horse)

I don't recall exactly, but I believe our record after 10 games was weak...I consider that a slow start. Also, being near the top of the league's weakest division is not that terribly relevant. The lack of depth and weak goaltending were for sure contributing factors.

My point is a full training camp would have been an advantage to the jets management in addressing the issue. Easier to find another goalie pre-Xmas than in a compressed schedule, I would think.

There was a bit of decline throughout the season.
The Jets were outplaying many of their opponents early with some AHL goaltending.
Pavelec got better for a bit and Jets went on a run, but eventually both started sinking.

 

[buggs]

...looking at that list makes me really sad we held onto pav last season, had we gotten a goaly who performed at league average last year (even the year before) we would have been right in the wheelhouse of the stlouis team.


gaaah...that just makes me hate our goaltending situation even more

Not disagreeing at all, but what were the options at the time? I don't remember a lot of quality being available at the time and certainly Mason wasn't the answer. If this list is accurate then there wasn't a ton of options available. It seems like Chevy was painted a bit into a corner and I seem to recall Pavs stats being better the first year, though I confess I don't exactly recall.

Perhaps there were trade options, but no rumours surfaced.

 

[truck]

Not disagreeing at all, but what were the options at the time? I don't remember a lot of quality being available at the time and certainly Mason wasn't the answer. If this list is accurate then there wasn't a ton of options available. It seems like Chevy was painted a bit into a corner and I seem to recall Pavs stats being better the first year, though I confess I don't exactly recall.

Perhaps there were trade options, but no rumours surfaced.

Perhaps no rumors surfaced because Chevy wasn't shopping.

He and Noel seem to like Pav a lot. Adding Goalie Bob for a 2nd (instead of drafting Lukas Sutter) would have been nice. One of our writers at AIH was begging for this move.

Among those FAs, Dan Ellis would have been fine by me - I said as much during that off season. He isn't great, but he would have been cheap and he wouldn't have required term.