News Article: THN: Pre Season look at the Winnipeg Jets

[Flair Hay]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1492205

I put this up earlier am interested in Mark Stuart at trade deadline type of deal.

For Tampa look we have some assets you could probably get on cheap for solid 3rd line younger guys people like Tom Pyatt and maybe a prospect like JT Brown. JT might surprise and be able to play a higher role.


We also have goaltenders would give up I think at that time later this year. Once Kristers Gudlevskiy proves himself in echl or Ahl and Riki Helenius continues having a good development path in one of either Jaroslav Janus or Adam Wilcox. We have Vasilevskiy and dont see anyone knocking him out of top prospect spot kid is really good

I also see us getting rid of some guys by start of next year. BJ Crombeen an agitator fourth line guy. Ryan Malone and maybe even moving a teddy purcell for a top four d man with another higher end prospect or a pick.

None of what i mentioned is what offering for Mark Stuart I would like to hear from you what you would be looking for a pick what round? A prospect, how close to nhl, what type, what rating etc..?

I know you have to give trouba some time probably before making a move.

Also realize is going to be some waivers. We have cap space in tampa just like you and think we are trying to steal a younger kid who has played some 5-6 minutes who projects a lot higher. So dont see us spending a ton for Mark Stuart.

Second note those guys mentioned think would trade for picks or comparable prospects etc.. Pyatt has decent numbers and JT Brown without injury was expected to be ahead of Alex Killorn in call up etc.. Also Brewer is someone we will trade but seems you are going the younger route so doubt you have any interest in him.

Pretty accurate perception overall. Stuart's role here has slowly diminished whch is a good thing. Good 6/7th defenseman that will stick up for teammates. Depends on where we are in the standings come February.

 

[truck]

let's see....

our top line is still very young, took a major step next year and still has room for growth. and they were one of the top 1st lines in the league.

our second line has an up-and-coming winger who is no where near his ceiling. find him at least 1 legitimate line-mate (even if it is a rookie centre) and put an upgrade on the other wing (which was arguably done via trade) and you can expect more.

3rd line has more depth. 4th line, who cares, really.

PP should be better by default. we actually have D-men than can play the point. we have a legitimate 1st line PP and a not-so-awful 2nd line (Scheifele, Kane and whomever up front and 2 of Clitty, Buff, Bogo and Enstrom on the point).

Goal: the big question mark

Coaching: the big question mark.

I think that, while we're not going to finish in 1st or second, the ceiling for the Jets is quite high and there is room for realistic optimism. NOT making the playoffs is the failure, not the expectation. And i'm not talking about squeezing into 8th.

Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Byfuglien and Toby are all at or beyond the age where players generally plateau. Pavelec, Frolik and Setoguchi are there too. Perhaps they can improve, but I wouldn't expect it - especially after they likely hit high points for on ice shooting percentage.

Of course Kane, Bogosian and Scheifele aren't. They no doubt have plenty of room for growth.

 

[HannuJ]

Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Byfuglien and Toby are all at or beyond the age where players generally plateau. Pavelec, Frolik and Setoguchi are there too. Perhaps they can improve, but I wouldn't expect it - especially after they likely hit high points for on ice shooting percentage.

Of course Kane, Bogosian and Scheifele aren't. They no doubt have plenty of room for growth.

Toby: just need a healthy, complete season from him.
Buff: just need him to be in shape
Wheeler: i'd argue your claim that he's plateaued. he still has (i hope) another 1-2 years of growth/understanding his skill set. talent-wise, i think he's the best Jet, hands down, and has what it takes to dominate the game when he has the puck. him getting smarter with his skill set's what we've watched happen over the past 2 seasons (arguably, his 1st year in Wpg was 1/3 write-off 2/3 great)

Ladd and Little: i agree with. Maybe some room for Little's game to grow.
Frolik: possible expanded role w/winnipeg, so i hope to see some good things from his game.
Setoguchi: no clue what to expect. Olli v2.0 or a nice reclamation project?
Pavelec: who the hell knows.

 

[Duke749]

I think its a fairly unbiased report. I'm not sure how people can take issue with it. Considering this....

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.


What is there to be positive about? We are playing in a tougher division, we still don't really have a number 1 line or a number 1 goaltender. I realize that we are building through the draft and I think that's a wise approach, but its going to be a while yet before this is a playoff contender.

You're wrong about a tougher division. Have you failed to even look at it?

You're wrong about us not having a #1 line. Guess you missed all those stats that have been posted 10 fold on this board.

No it won't. We almost made the playoffs last year despite Pavs subpar play and key injuries. Or in your case, despite having basically nothing.

 

[sully1410]

You're wrong about a tougher division. Have you failed to even look at it?

You're wrong about us not having a #1 line. Guess you missed all those stats that have been posted 10 fold on this board.

No it won't. We almost made the playoffs last year despite Pavs subpar play and key injuries. Or in your case, despite having basically nothing.

I really don't see how this division is any tougher then the old tbh. Sure, we have Chicago and St. Louis...but the Blues weren't looking that good last season anyways.

Dallas...is a mess. I'm not sure why a whole ton of people have them pegged to do well next season, they aren't a complete team and their D is TERRIBLE. on the upside, they have a good goalie in Lehtonen, and a good first line combo in Benn and Seguin, but i think it will be a while before they actually start succeeding as a team.

Nashville sucks. No real threats on the forward lines and their D is now questionable with the loss of Suter. Weber and Rinne are still weapons, but two high level players don't make them a threat.

Colorado has a good centre depth, but outside of that is working with half a team as well. Goaltending is just as questionable as ours, except that Varly has been playing in the offensively weaker West while Pavs has been lit up by Kovy, Sid, Ovy, Backstrom, Stamkos, the Staals, Tavares, Malkin etc.) you get the idea. Their wingers and D are bad.

Chicago...they rock. What can i say? However i think we'll match up well against them.

I think this new division will be more suited to the Jets style and identity. We'll do well here.

My theory is that with less offensive fire power and an actual training camp to work on special teams...will greatly improve Pavs numbers. We can complain about the guy all we like, but the management has chosen to put their faith in the guy. Looks like we're stuck with him anyways,might as well be positive.

 

[Duke749]

I believe it goes

1. Chicago-obvious reasons

2. St. Louis- obvious reasons

3.Nashville- one of the best G's in the league with a very good D, and have a consistent track record of making the playoffs.

4. Colorado- just an up and coming team, going to be taking the breakthrough that NYI and almost Columbus had last year.

5. Dallas-just feel they tried to do more then we did during the off season to improve

6. Winnipeg- Not a good enough #1 G and very limited offensive fire power to make playoffs, and defence cant carry us there.

7. Minnesota- only putting them here because our new division rivals deserve to be at the bottom!

In all honesty, this is not going to be a division about offence, but more a division thats known for its defensive teams with amazing goltenders, and considering we have the worst one in the division..

So how can we take this post seriously exactly when you want to give two bottom 4 teams last year their absolutely best case scenario yet give us our near worst case scenario???

 

[Duke749]

I really don't see how this division is any tougher then the old tbh. Sure, we have Chicago and St. Louis...but the Blues weren't looking that good last season anyways.

Dallas...is a mess. I'm not sure why a whole ton of people have them pegged to do well next season, they aren't a complete team and their D is TERRIBLE. on the upside, they have a good goalie in Lehtonen, and a good first line combo in Benn and Seguin, but i think it will be a while before they actually start succeeding as a team.

Nashville sucks. No real threats on the forward lines and their D is now questionable with the loss of Suter. Weber and Rinne are still weapons, but two high level players don't make them a threat.

Colorado has a good centre depth, but outside of that is working with half a team as well. Goaltending is just as questionable as ours, except that Varly has been playing in the offensively weaker West while Pavs has been lit up by Kovy, Sid, Ovy, Backstrom, Stamkos, the Staals, Tavares, Malkin etc.) you get the idea. Their wingers and D are bad.

Chicago...they rock. What can i say? However i think we'll match up well against them.

I think this new division will be more suited to the Jets style and identity. We'll do well here.

My theory is that with less offensive fire power and an actual training camp to work on special teams...will greatly improve Pavs numbers. We can complain about the guy all we like, but the management has chosen to put their faith in the guy. Looks like we're stuck with him anyways,might as well be positive.

It's not any tougher. That's the thing. Can't understand why anyone would think otherwise.

Nashville's D isn't really in question at all. Josi has stepped up nice and is a top pairing guy already with upside still left. They just literally had NO offense last year.

But yeah, agree about Dallas's D for the most part. Same with Colorado but worse. lol

 

[Analyst365]

These predictions by experts, or fans (no offense intended), aren't worth the pixels they're written on. You can't evaluate each team then predict their position. It's just not how sports works.

I think the Jets have potential for some good momentum. Here's hoping they get the good start and confidence they need to push on to a good position in the standings.

 

[garret9]

These predictions by experts, or fans (no offense intended), aren't worth the pixels they're written on. You can't evaluate each team then predict their position. It's just not how sports works.

I think the Jets have potential for some good momentum. Here's hoping they get the good start and confidence they need to push on to a good position in the standings.

Momentum is real and there are variables you can never come even close to predict (trades, free agents, injuries, etc); however, the stronger team will tend to win more often than not and therefore you can predict to some degree.

It's the subtle difference between probabilities and destinies.

 

[Analyst365]

Momentum is real and there are variables you can never come even close to predict (trades, free agents, injuries, etc); however, the stronger team will tend to win more often than not and therefore you can predict to some degree.

It's the subtle difference between probabilities and destinies.

Sure that is true, but what made a team stronger yesterday may not make them strong tomorrow, and visa versa. The emergence and decline of talent is not always based on past performances.

So yes, you can predict "to some degree", and that degree you speak of corresponds to, say, about 6 places for every team (some more than others).

So why try to organize 15 or 30 teams into a single prediction? Even if you are right, crediting your knowledge for getting it right is, ironically, confessing your ignorance to the degree of chance involved.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

I am not a fan of jets or saying know everything about you all. Think you could use a couple more good players for lower lines. I love LOVE what you did in signing your core dont listen to namesayers they are jealous you got everyone at good rates for what they provide for their core years. That is the beginning of being legit in my opinion. Little is not a first line but you didnt pay him first line center money. He is close though and adequate for now. Yep you need another superstar but setoguchi can he be the guy we saw 2-3 years ago? I was really pissed you signed him so low to be honest he is tough plays good can score really fast gifted etc.. You got him at a great price. I loved that deal to be honest. I think your fine in a weak division where you have two top teams than a lot of younger teams putting it together. You get solid d good goaltending and lower line work and time and you will compete and wouldnt surprise me if you were a playoff team.

 

[HannuJ]

Momentum is real and there are variables you can never come even close to predict (trades, free agents, injuries, etc); however, the stronger team will tend to win more often than not and therefore you can predict to some degree.

It's the subtle difference between probabilities and destinies.

you following MLB this year?
just wondering, because that basically proves your theory wrong.

Angles, Blue Jays...

 

[garret9]

Sure that is true, but what made a team stronger yesterday may not make them strong tomorrow, and visa versa. The emergence and decline of talent is not always based on past performances.

So yes, you can predict "to some degree", and that degree you speak of corresponds to, say, about 6 places for every team (some more than others).

So why try to organize 15 or 30 teams into a single prediction? Even if you are right, crediting your knowledge for getting it right is, ironically, confessing your ignorance to the degree of chance involved.

Past performance can still be very predictive of future performance; we just often focus on the wrong indicators.

Score-adjusted Fenwick currently is the best predictor of future success we have, and it is very strong.
(For those wondering I usually use just plain Fenwick when the game is within 2 pts (AKA FenwickClose) because I'm too lazy to do math and run the regression).

Why organize them in such predictions using such methods? Why not?

If you understand things as the weighted probabilities they represent then it is neither ironic nor ignorance. Sports are a form of entertainment and everyone is entitled to their own subjective appreciation of such entertainment. Some don't care to know how strong their team's chances are; some thirst for knowledge and want to know all they can.

This also ignores other reasonings such as:
* learning how to maximize efficiency in team building with what correlates to winning strongest and how to target market inefficiencies
* taking advantage of the archaic sports gambling odds systems having better idea of the probabilities than the establishment
* etc

 

[garret9]

you following MLB this year?
just wondering, because that basically proves your theory wrong.

Angles, Blue Jays...

I don't see how that proves my theory wrong at all...?

I know some were thinking the Blue Jays would be awesome, but again I was talking about the difference between probabilities and destinies.


EDIT:
PS I do have one friend who is a stats guy for both hockey and baseball. He said that actually the underlying numbers weren't very indicative of a positive season for the Jays:
"If anything, most projection systems ranked the Jays way lower than the pundits"

 

[Rook37]

you following MLB this year?
just wondering, because that basically proves your theory wrong.

Angles, Blue Jays...

Misplaced expectations in no way defeats the 'theory' that better teams will win more. I mean, I don't think that's really just a theory.

Sure, momentum matters and chance affects games but yeah, better teams with better players who have better chemistry tend to defeat worse teams. That's common sense. The only thing that can be proved wrong is an individual's assessment of how good a team is. EX: Blue Jays

I don't know, maybe I'm missing something - could you elaborate maybe on what exactly in that post was proved wrong by the Blue Jays this year?

 

[knorthern knight]

I'm not sure that was really a meltdown at the end of the season during the lockout. A lot of other teams played some stellar hockey and just didn't lose. If the Jets melted down last year, it was the week they played the Caps twice.

Not to mention 3 other losses. It was those 5 losses in a row that killed us.

• Wednesday, March 27; we were 6th overall in points in the East, and had #3 seed due to being 1st in the SouthEast , 6 ahead of Carolina and 7 ahead of Washington
• Friday, April 5; 5 losses later, we were 10th overall, and eventually struggled to #9

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2013/04/06/shades-of-thrashers-past-for-jets

It looks all too familiar: the Winnipeg Jets in a late-season collapse that would have made the Atlanta Thrashers proud.

Five straight losses have removed the Jets from the playoff picture with just nine games to go, beginning Saturday at home against Philadelphia.

 

[knorthern knight]

Everyone's talking about the players, but what about the coach? Will he stop blindly trusting veterans "just because"? Will he have the guts to send Thorburn and possibly Jokinen to the pressbox, if not the Icecaps, if/when other players are playing better? Will stop insisting on playing Pavalec in back-to-back games? Will he give Montoya 15 to 20 starts?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I thought the LLW line is not a number 1 line was put to rest already.

Also are people forgetting that in 2011-12 Mason got 20 starts as a backup. I see no reason why people would question in a 82 game season the backup wouldn't get 15 to 20 games

 

[broinwhyteridge]

Not sure how any of those players can truly be considered as key departures, considering how few of them have since found comparable NHL employment.

If anything, I think their deletions from the roster could better be termed as planned obsolescence.

Or Addition by Subtraction.

 

[MadMen88]

I see no reason to believe that this years Jets team couldn't outplay the Avalanche, Predators and Stars for fourth in our division. I think Minnesota will be tight with us and I think the Blues and Blackhawks will run away with it...that being said, I'm looking forward to a highly touted battle for a wildcard spot between us and you guessed it Phoenix, Anaheim and possibly Edmonton...

 

[Analyst365]

Past performance can still be very predictive of future performance; we just often focus on the wrong indicators.

Score-adjusted Fenwick currently is the best predictor of future success we have, and it is very strong.
(For those wondering I usually use just plain Fenwick when the game is within 2 pts (AKA FenwickClose) because I'm too lazy to do math and run the regression).

Why organize them in such predictions using such methods? Why not?

If you understand things as the weighted probabilities they represent then it is neither ironic nor ignorance. Sports are a form of entertainment and everyone is entitled to their own subjective appreciation of such entertainment. Some don't care to know how strong their team's chances are; some thirst for knowledge and want to know all they can.

This also ignores other reasonings such as:
* learning how to maximize efficiency in team building with what correlates to winning strongest and how to target market inefficiencies
* taking advantage of the archaic sports gambling odds systems having better idea of the probabilities than the establishment
* etc

These statistical methods are flawed for season predictions because in order to carry any weight you would have to play about 30 seasons for every one season for things to shake out. You don't though. You get one season.

Consider a team that has 5 games, 10 points, and 6 places in the standings left to resolve. And 3 or 4 other teams with similar scenarios. You just can't predict the unstated injuries, the wife who calls your star player 3 times in the middle of the night, the aircraft maintenance delays, the sneezed-on salad bars, etc. that all come in to play.

So sure, it is fun to try to predict the standings, but given the vast number of unmeasurable variables you have to be willing to accept that your prediction for the season is about as likely to be correct as someone who rubs their chin an gives it a go.

 

[sully1410]

These statistical methods are flawed for season predictions because in order to carry any weight you would have to play about 30 seasons for every one season for things to shake out. You don't though. You get one season.

Consider a team that has 5 games, 10 points, and 6 places in the standings left to resolve. And 3 or 4 other teams with similar scenarios. You just can't predict the unstated injuries, the wife who calls your star player 3 times in the middle of the night, the aircraft maintenance delays, the sneezed-on salad bars, etc. that all come in to play.

So sure, it is fun to try to predict the standings, but given the vast number of unmeasurable variables you have to be willing to accept that your prediction for the season is about as likely to be correct as someone who rubs their chin an gives it a go.

Or that stuff could not happen? I see what you're saying, but the past seasons forms a pattern right?

You also need to work in the positive "things that just happen". Like hot streaks. Players finding their games. Sleeping on the plane. Turning the phone off. A D core that actually stays healthy...

It all can happen, and I would think that the good cancels out the bad. Luck eventually turns around.

 

[sully1410]

It's not any tougher. That's the thing. Can't understand why anyone would think otherwise.

Nashville's D isn't really in question at all. Josi has stepped up nice and is a top pairing guy already with upside still left. They just literally had NO offense last year.

But yeah, agree about Dallas's D for the most part. Same with Colorado but worse. lol

Roman Josi, while a fine player...is NOT Ryan Suter.

Minny is the same thing, we're competing against a group of teams that are incomplete and looking objectively at the rosters, I would take ours over any of theirs. Well, except the obvious.

We'll do better.

 

[garret9]

These statistical methods are flawed for season predictions because in order to carry any weight you would have to play about 30 seasons for every one season for things to shake out. You don't though. You get one season.

Consider a team that has 5 games, 10 points, and 6 places in the standings left to resolve. And 3 or 4 other teams with similar scenarios. You just can't predict the unstated injuries, the wife who calls your star player 3 times in the middle of the night, the aircraft maintenance delays, the sneezed-on salad bars, etc. that all come in to play.

So sure, it is fun to try to predict the standings, but given the vast number of unmeasurable variables you have to be willing to accept that your prediction for the season is about as likely to be correct as someone who rubs their chin an gives it a go.

Uhm... 30 seasons? What?!

A predictive measure is as predictive as often as it is correct. If it is correct far more often than "someone who rubs their chin and gives it a go," then it is more predictive. If on the other hand it is not, it is less predictive.

Not sure why that's such a hard concept to get. Yes there may be variables that can happen but in the end if something can be good up to a x% than it is that predictive.

That's why it is weighted probabilities and not destiny. Yes predictive models will never be 100%; that's stupid, but don't dismiss something just because it can be accurate to -- let's say -- 70% of the time...

 

[truck]

Or Addition by Subtraction.

Addition by subtraction only works when you are subtracting a negative and while those players weren't great, they generally weren't the reason the team lost. There were and in some cases still are lesser players on the roster.

Losing Tanner Glass was addition by subtraction, so was losing Chris Mason. Both players were below replacement level.

Losing Wellwood and replacing him with somebody worse doesn't quite cut it as addition by subtraction. It is just subtraction.