News Article: THN: Pre Season look at the Winnipeg Jets

[Whileee]

That would be better logic and I can agree to that.

I think the loss of those two guys isn't a net positive just by subtraction (since they are better than some who remain on the team), but I agree there is a possibility that Frolik + Setoguchi could negate that loss.

One can never be certain, but I would be very surprised if Frolik and Setoguchi aren't a significant upgrade. Frolik is a two-time 20 goal scorer, and a fantastic penalty killer. I think that Setoguchi gives us more pop on line 2/3 and will improve the power play.

I think that the other potential improvement from last year could be health of key players. We started without Bogosian for the the beginning of last year and played most of the season without our top LHD (Enstrom). The Jets still aren't that deep, but if their top players stay healthy I think they'll be better.

Beyond that, I expect continued development and improvement from Kane and Bogosian; two of our key players.

The wild card might be Pavs. If he nudges his save % up a bit (maybe by playing him more judiciously), it could make a difference.

 

[ps241]

I don't buy the fact that the Jets didn't make any big moves over the off-season that they can't move up the standings. Case in point are the 1984-85 Jets 1.0. That year they improved 23 points and finished in second in the toughest division in the NHL at the time.

The only thing that the Jets 1.0 did that off season was trade Lucien DeBlois for Perry Turnbull and Dave Ellett joined them out of college.

Big moves are not always the answer. It just takes a team to get it's **** together.

Very good post and food for thought!

 

[garret9]

One can never be certain, but I would be very surprised if Frolik and Setoguchi aren't a significant upgrade. Frolik is a two-time 20 goal scorer, and a fantastic penalty killer. I think that Setoguchi gives us more pop on line 2/3 and will improve the power play.

I think that the other potential improvement from last year could be health of key players. We started without Bogosian for the the beginning of last year and played most of the season without our top LHD (Enstrom). The Jets still aren't that deep, but if their top players stay healthy I think they'll be better.

Beyond that, I expect continued development and improvement from Kane and Bogosian; two of our key players.

The wild card might be Pavs. If he nudges his save % up a bit (maybe by playing him more judiciously), it could make a difference.

Historically speaking for results (not style) with compairing to Frolik and Setoguchi:

Wellwood is better at outchancing opponents and points than both at 5v5, although the other two are more goal scorers while Welly is a playmaker. Frolik is the better PK player and Seto is the better PP player.

Antropov is a better 5v5 at points than both (again playmaker vs goal scorer); however, Frolik is better at outchancing opponents. Frolik and Antro are similar in PK efficiency but Frolik fits the Jets system better. Setoguchi is a better PP performer but it's close.

Burmistrov and Frolik have near identical point production, usage, and out-chancing for 5v5. Burmistrov has historically been a top 20 PK player in the NHL over the last 2 seasons; Frolik is good but not at that level. Seto destroys Burmi at PP.

Miettinen is terrible and made everyone he's with worse... except maybe Thorburn but he has the nose.


But there's a bit of apple/oranges going on.
It comes similar to the argument Jeff Veillette had about Bozak/Clarkson versus Grabovski.
Grabovski given the same treatment as the other two would perform better; however, that is unlikely going to happen due to coaching and system.
Wellwood and Antropov don't really fit the Jets direction in system, so there is a possibility of the others being improvement in overall effects due to those factors that if Welly/Antro stayed they would not likely been optimized.


TL;DR version
Optimized usage Welly+Antro > Seto+Frolik, but in WPG system Welly+Antro ? Seto+Frolik

 

[spades0faces]

I'm not sure that was really a meltdown at the end of the season during the lockout. A lot of other teams played some stellar hockey and just didn't lose. If the Jets melted down last year, it was the week they played the Caps twice.

Also agree with other comments regarding LLW-Kane. Those are the main pieces of the roster, along with the D core (Enstrom extension, Bogo long term). How are those bad signings? Those are the core of the team and not the problem that caused Jets to lose games. NOT re-signing a bunch of 3rd/4th line players is suddenly a bad idea? Because they're at such a premium?

I'd love to have Little playing as a second line center but between the factors of a lower cap, a limited FA market and the sum being greater than the whole of its parts, I'm ok with Little playing first line. Do I think he's paid too much? Yeah, but relative to other first line centers in the NHL he's being paid 2nd line money even though many think it's too much. Not for his current role on the team.

Pavs needs to improve. So to does Noel's management of his goaltending tandem. That shouldn't be a secret as we've seen two years of the same management style and it hasn't worked. Give Montoya the back or front end of the doubles and some other games as well. Pavy learns to play with less games or we find someone else because even though he seems to believe he plays better with more games the numbers seem to show otherwise.

Prediction for the season? Injury dependent coupled with what happens with Scheifele/Jokinen. One of the two needs to step up - if one does then we're in much better shape. If neither does, then we're the same as last year with LLW-Kane providing our scoring and that's not enough, SE or Central matters not.
Blues
Hawks
Stars
Jets
Wild
Avs
Preds

The bottom five are a complete and utter guess. Preds are like us, it depends if the whole outperforms the sum of the parts and Rinne has a better season. Avs need goaltending and defense, otherwise they're the central division Oilers. Wild don't seem to have the full sum of their parts and their goaltending can be spectacular, or not. They seem a lot like Winnipeg. Dallas lots of moves and don't know how that will add up, might be really good. Hawks and Blues are obvious, solid choices.

I believe it goes

1. Chicago-obvious reasons

2. St. Louis- obvious reasons

3.Nashville- one of the best G's in the league with a very good D, and have a consistent track record of making the playoffs.

4. Colorado- just an up and coming team, going to be taking the breakthrough that NYI and almost Columbus had last year.

5. Dallas-just feel they tried to do more then we did during the off season to improve

6. Winnipeg- Not a good enough #1 G and very limited offensive fire power to make playoffs, and defence cant carry us there.

7. Minnesota- only putting them here because our new division rivals deserve to be at the bottom!

In all honesty, this is not going to be a division about offence, but more a division thats known for its defensive teams with amazing goltenders, and considering we have the worst one in the division..

 

[AWSAA]

I don't know how TNSE can honestly say they did everything they could to field a competitve team this year. We're less than 2 weeks away from training camp and appear to be content with Tangradi and Wright fighting over a spot in the top 9.

Three years in and we're still trotting out two fourth lines? You can't get away with that when you don't have elite players up front.

 

[angrymnky]

The only thing that the Jets 1.0 did that off season was trade Lucien DeBlois for Perry Turnbull and Dave Ellett joined them out of college.

Tom Watt the disciplinarian that fought with Hawerchuk and restrained his offence was gone for Barry Long a player's coach who names Hawerchuk team captain - who then goes on to have a year with the highest point totals of his career and Randy Carlyle having a full season compared to a handful of games the year before. Stuff happened.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Let's not forget that we will have one of, if not THE youngest team in the league. It probably won't even be close if both Scheifele and Trouba stick.

Many of our players are just entering their prime years and they will be better than last year. There's natural growth right there.

I still think we're a marginal playoff team, but when I look three or four years down the road, I see huge potential. We may need a young goalie by then as well.

I really think we'll look back on the 2013 draft as the best one ever for the Jets 1.0 or 2.0.

 

[Sweech]

I think its a fairly unbiased report. I'm not sure how people can take issue with it. Considering this....

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.


What is there to be positive about? We are playing in a tougher division, we still don't really have a number 1 line or a number 1 goaltender. I realize that we are building through the draft and I think that's a wise approach, but its going to be a while yet before this is a playoff contender.

Here's an article to check out:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...g-jets-andrew-ladd-blake-wheeler-bryan-little

 

[Whileee]

Historically speaking for results (not style) with compairing to Frolik and Setoguchi:

Wellwood is better at outchancing opponents and points than both at 5v5, although the other two are more goal scorers while Welly is a playmaker. Frolik is the better PK player and Seto is the better PP player.

Antropov is a better 5v5 at points than both (again playmaker vs goal scorer); however, Frolik is better at outchancing opponents. Frolik and Antro are similar in PK efficiency but Frolik fits the Jets system better. Setoguchi is a better PP performer but it's close.

Burmistrov and Frolik have near identical point production, usage, and out-chancing for 5v5. Burmistrov has historically been a top 20 PK player in the NHL over the last 2 seasons; Frolik is good but not at that level. Seto destroys Burmi at PP.

Miettinen is terrible and made everyone he's with worse... except maybe Thorburn but he has the nose.


But there's a bit of apple/oranges going on.
It comes similar to the argument Jeff Veillette had about Bozak/Clarkson versus Grabovski.
Grabovski given the same treatment as the other two would perform better; however, that is unlikely going to happen due to coaching and system.
Wellwood and Antropov don't really fit the Jets direction in system, so there is a possibility of the others being improvement in overall effects due to those factors that if Welly/Antro stayed they would not likely been optimized.


TL;DR version
Optimized usage Welly+Antro > Seto+Frolik, but in WPG system Welly+Antro ? Seto+Frolik

I think that both will upgrade the Jets special teams (PK and PP). To me, that's an important consideration.

How do Frolik's numbers look when you go back to his FLA days, when he was used more (as he is likely to in Wpg vs. CHI)? His point production was substantially higher than Burmi's in the first couple of years. I also think that he'll get much better opportunities to play with productive players than Burmi did under Noel.

I agree that the two new players are a better "fit" for the system and the rest of the team.

 

[Atoyot]

I believe it goes

1. Chicago-obvious reasons

2. St. Louis- obvious reasons

3.Nashville- one of the best G's in the league with a very good D, and have a consistent track record of making the playoffs.

4. Colorado- just an up and coming team, going to be taking the breakthrough that NYI and almost Columbus had last year.

5. Dallas-just feel they tried to do more then we did during the off season to improve

6. Winnipeg- Not a good enough #1 G and very limited offensive fire power to make playoffs, and defence cant carry us there.

7. Minnesota- only putting them here because our new division rivals deserve to be at the bottom!

In all honesty, this is not going to be a division about offence, but more a division thats known for its defensive teams with amazing goltenders, and considering we have the worst one in the division..

Not yet, adding one 18 year old, regardless of how good he is, does not bring a team from 2nd last in the NHL to 4th in a 7 team division. They don't have goaltending and their defense is even worse. Seriously it's god awful. They don't have the forward core that EDM has and look at how long EDM has struggled because of the same defense and goaltending problems that Colorado has.

It took NYI 4 years after drafting the player (Tavares) that they wanted to build their team around to make the playoffs, and between drafting him and making it they had a top 5 pick in every draft. And it remains to be seen if they've actually made it or just benefited from the shortened season.

 

[Atoyot]

I don't know how TNSE can honestly say they did everything they could to field a competitve team this year. We're less than 2 weeks away from training camp and appear to be content with Tangradi and Wright fighting over a spot in the top 9.

Three years in and we're still trotting out two fourth lines? You can't get away with that when you don't have elite players up front.

Frolik-Olli-Halischuk

Where's that top 9 spot that Tangradi/Wright are fighting over?

 

[Potrzebie]

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.

I guess they don't consider Ron Hainsey a key departure.

I sure hope Setoguchi and Frolik can combine for 6 goals a game to pick up the slack.

 

[King Woodballs]

The jets could end up anywhere between 3rd and 7th depending on how the stars align themselves.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Frolik-Olli-Halischuk

Where's that top 9 spot that Tangradi/Wright are fighting over?

Halischuk is a really intriguing wild card on that 3rd line. If you're looking at his point production on an ES/60 basis, he has finished #2, #2 and #5 in his three seasons with Nashville. I'm wondering if getting a bit more icetime + playing in a less stifling defensive system might push him into 35 point territory. A few spells on the second line (hey, you never know) might have him breaking 40 points.

Can't say that he'll be an upgrade over any one of Burmi, Welly and Antro, but one thing I can say for certain: he won't catch anywhere near the flack that those three did. Fans in Nashville raved about his work ethic, and busting your ass and not "floating" counts for a lot here.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

The jets could end up anywhere between 3rd and 7th depending on how the stars align themselves.

Agreed. Almost no chance the Jets surpass St. Louis or Chicago, but it's a bit of a toss-up after that.

 

[spades0faces]

Agreed. Almost no chance the Jets surpass St. Louis or Chicago, but it's a bit of a toss-up after that.

i dont see a way in which we pass over nashville. too good a head coach, one of the best goalies in the nhl and amazing defence. 1-3 are set, and 4-7 are up for grabs.

i think only 3 teams from our division will make playoffs, with the pacific stealing one of the wild cards.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

i dont see a way in which we pass over nashville. too good a head coach, one of the best goalies in the nhl and amazing defence. 1-3 are set, and 4-7 are up for grabs.

i think only 3 teams from our division will make playoffs, with the pacific stealing one of the wild cards.

Meh. They're definitely a better team than what we saw last season, I'd hardly call them locks for #3.

 

[King Woodballs]

Agreed. Almost no chance the Jets surpass St. Louis or Chicago, but it's a bit of a toss-up after that.

I agree those are the two locks

As well as thinking Nashville isn't a lock unlike some others

 

[ps241]

Meh. They're definitely a better team than what we saw last season, I'd hardly call them locks for #3.

Yea I don't know about Nashville......Weber at close to $8 million a year (thanks Philly) and Rinne at $7 million a year and I think they really miss Ryan Suter. Where are their goals going to come from and do they have an internal cap that is going to limit them?

Nice draft pick in Seth Jones and someday maybe for Forsberg but they don't strike fear in me and we can compete with them IMHO.

 

[SCP Guy]

Injuries is the big question mark IMO.....If we stay healthy and other teams don't then we have a good chance

 

[Atoyot]

Halischuk is a really intriguing wild card on that 3rd line. If you're looking at his point production on an ES/60 basis, he has finished #2, #2 and #5 in his three seasons with Nashville. I'm wondering if getting a bit more icetime + playing in a less stifling defensive system might push him into 35 point territory. A few spells on the second line (hey, you never know) might have him breaking 40 points.

Can't say that he'll be an upgrade over any one of Burmi, Welly and Antro, but one thing I can say for certain: he won't catch anywhere near the flack that those three did. Fans in Nashville raved about his work ethic, and busting your ass and not "floating" counts for a lot here.

Yeah I've been a big fan of his every time I've watched him play. Works his arse off, has a nice shot, good skill and is solid defensively. Hard to imagine that the plan isn't to have him and Frolik together as a shutdown pairing that can create offense, as they were both used as defensive specialists by their previous teams. If we still had Burmi to center them it'd be a great shutdown line with a whole lot of skill in my opinion.

 

[truck]

i dont see a way in which we pass over nashville. too good a head coach, one of the best goalies in the nhl and amazing defence. 1-3 are set, and 4-7 are up for grabs.

i think only 3 teams from our division will make playoffs, with the pacific stealing one of the wild cards.

Jets don't have to "pass over Nashville", Nashville was flat out garbage last year. Jets did better in the standings and better possession wise. It is the Pred that have some catching up to do.

 

[ihadtochangethename]

I've heard one or two of the THN guys interviewed on 1290 since this article came out and the impression I got is basically that - when it comes to the Jets - nothing positive is going to happen this season. Pavs is going to be terrible. Nobody is going to improve over previous seasons. None of the (admittedly slight) roster moves Chevy has made are going to pay off at all. All our defencemen are going to fall to injury. I guess its all valid points, but I'm not so sure they seem to be as hard on other teams. One of the guys also referred to the fact that Brian Little is not a first line center "even though he's being paid like one." Really?

rona roundtable interview. he also called himself an evander kane apologist-like that was supposed to make me feel better.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1492205

I put this up earlier am interested in Mark Stuart at trade deadline type of deal.

For Tampa look we have some assets you could probably get on cheap for solid 3rd line younger guys people like Tom Pyatt and maybe a prospect like JT Brown. JT might surprise and be able to play a higher role.


We also have goaltenders would give up I think at that time later this year. Once Kristers Gudlevskiy proves himself in echl or Ahl and Riki Helenius continues having a good development path in one of either Jaroslav Janus or Adam Wilcox. We have Vasilevskiy and dont see anyone knocking him out of top prospect spot kid is really good

I also see us getting rid of some guys by start of next year. BJ Crombeen an agitator fourth line guy. Ryan Malone and maybe even moving a teddy purcell for a top four d man with another higher end prospect or a pick.

None of what i mentioned is what offering for Mark Stuart I would like to hear from you what you would be looking for a pick what round? A prospect, how close to nhl, what type, what rating etc..?

I know you have to give trouba some time probably before making a move.

Also realize is going to be some waivers. We have cap space in tampa just like you and think we are trying to steal a younger kid who has played some 5-6 minutes who projects a lot higher. So dont see us spending a ton for Mark Stuart.

Second note those guys mentioned think would trade for picks or comparable prospects etc.. Pyatt has decent numbers and JT Brown without injury was expected to be ahead of Alex Killorn in call up etc.. Also Brewer is someone we will trade but seems you are going the younger route so doubt you have any interest in him.

 

[HannuJ]

I don't buy the fact that the Jets didn't make any big moves over the off-season that they can't move up the standings. Case in point are the 1984-85 Jets 1.0. That year they improved 23 points and finished in second in the toughest division in the NHL at the time.

The only thing that the Jets 1.0 did that off season was trade Lucien DeBlois for Perry Turnbull and Dave Ellett joined them out of college.

Big moves are not always the answer. It just takes a team to get it's **** together.

let's see....

our top line is still very young, took a major step next year and still has room for growth. and they were one of the top 1st lines in the league.

our second line has an up-and-coming winger who is no where near his ceiling. find him at least 1 legitimate line-mate (even if it is a rookie centre) and put an upgrade on the other wing (which was arguably done via trade) and you can expect more.

3rd line has more depth. 4th line, who cares, really.

PP should be better by default. we actually have D-men than can play the point. we have a legitimate 1st line PP and a not-so-awful 2nd line (Scheifele, Kane and whomever up front and 2 of Clitty, Buff, Bogo and Enstrom on the point).

Goal: the big question mark

Coaching: the big question mark.

I think that, while we're not going to finish in 1st or second, the ceiling for the Jets is quite high and there is room for realistic optimism. NOT making the playoffs is the failure, not the expectation. And i'm not talking about squeezing into 8th.