This Pittsburgh Penguins Act is Getting Old

[Ozz]

It's going to come down to the final day, Pens will require 1 or 2 teams to lose out, it won't happen, and they'll miss by 1-2 pts again.

 

[lokomotiv15]

At this point, there are more than four Cs I'd take ahead of Crosby.

For this season only, going into a play-off run, I'd feel comfortable saying McDavid and MacKinnon as options over him. With everything on the line for 2 months in spring, I dont see any massive reasons to definitively put any of Matthews, Rantanen, Aho, Pettersson, etc... over him. Definitely can understand why some might though.

 

[coooldude]

They definitely are, but it's still a really difficult hill to climb at this stage of the season. If the Flyers and Caps go 0.500 in their remaining games, they'd be at 90 points. The Penguins would need to go 5-1-1 just to tie one of them in points. Also, every game the Penguins have left is against a team above them in the standings, but only 3 of them are against other teams in the WC race (Washington, Detroit, NYI). Their other 4 games are Tampa, Toronto, Boston, Nashville. IIRC, that's the most difficult schedule among the teams in the race.

At the same time as doing what they need to in their relatively difficult schedule, they'd have to hope the Red Wings also don't play over 0.500 in their remaining games and that the Islanders do worse than 4-2-1.

The likelihood of all 4 teams performing poorly enough to let the Penguins get in isn't high. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. They just need a lot of help from other teams dropping games.

Great analysis. "Is it impossible? Absolutely not. They just need a lot of help from other teams dropping games." And if you throw all of those thoughts into a statistical model, you get 15.1% chance of playoffs, 25% or so if they win vs. WSH and 5% if they lose.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

You have to take crosby even now over all those guys. Maybe even before matthews. Given Sids playoff pedigree. Last time crosby was in the playoffs 2 years ago he had 9 points in 4 games before getting blind sided

 

[Crow]

They definitely are, but it's still a really difficult hill to climb at this stage of the season. If the Flyers and Caps go 0.500 in their remaining games, they'd be at 90 points. The Penguins would need to go 5-1-1 just to tie one of them in points. Also, every game the Penguins have left is against a team above them in the standings, but only 3 of them are against other teams in the WC race (Washington, Detroit, NYI). Their other 4 games are Tampa, Toronto, Boston, Nashville. IIRC, that's the most difficult schedule among the teams in the race.

At the same time as doing what they need to in their relatively difficult schedule, they'd have to hope the Red Wings also don't play over 0.500 in their remaining games and that the Islanders do worse than 4-2-1.

The likelihood of all 4 teams performing poorly enough to let the Penguins get in isn't high. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. They just need a lot of help from other teams dropping games.

Seems pretty bleak. That’s a hell of a schedule. Great post.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

They definitely are, but it's still a really difficult hill to climb at this stage of the season. If the Flyers and Caps go 0.500 in their remaining games, they'd be at 90 points. The Penguins would need to go 5-1-1 just to tie one of them in points. Also, every game the Penguins have left is against a team above them in the standings, but only 3 of them are against other teams in the WC race (Washington, Detroit, NYI). Their other 4 games are Tampa, Toronto, Boston, Nashville. IIRC, that's the most difficult schedule among the teams in the race.

At the same time as doing what they need to in their relatively difficult schedule, they'd have to hope the Red Wings also don't play over 0.500 in their remaining games and that the Islanders do worse than 4-2-1.

The likelihood of all 4 teams performing poorly enough to let the Penguins get in isn't high. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. They just need a lot of help from other teams dropping games.

Nashville is faltering, the other 3 Atlantic teams might pull back some of their guys for playoffs even though it doesn't happen often in hockey but you never know. Pens will fight for their lives in those games while maybe those teams slightly take their foot off their gas since they're all locks at this point with Tampa Bay at like 99%.

 

[Headshot77]

as the rest of the league can plainly see


Interesting ......which ones?

CcDavid
CcKinnon
Catthews
Craisaitl

 

[PaulD]

CcDavid
CcKinnon
Catthews
Craisaitl

yea, but said MORE than four centers

 

[Tawnos]

Great analysis. "Is it impossible? Absolutely not. They just need a lot of help from other teams dropping games." And if you throw all of those thoughts into a statistical model, you get 15.1% chance of playoffs, 25% or so if they win vs. WSH and 5% if they lose.

It's funny, I always find the "if X team goes 0.500, then Y team has to go A-B-C to catch up" to be more illustrative once you get past game 70 or so.

If the Rangers go 0.500, then the Hurricanes would have to go 5-2-0 to catch them. If the Leafs go 0.500, the Lightning would have 7-1-0 to catch them.

I think it shows how hard it is better than "a 15% chance."

 

[SEALBound]

yea, but said MORE than four centers

And honestly, Draisaitl is a stretch. That's a maybe.

 

[Calderon]

At this point, there are more than four Cs I'd take ahead of Crosby.

I was just skimming thru and assumed this statement was about the four nations tournament next year. As things stand right now, Crosby must still be in, right? The Olympics a year later, however... A lot can happen in two years but even then I expect to see Sid in Milano-Cortina.

 

[PaulD]

And honestly, Draisaitl is a stretch. That's a maybe.

Agreed. This season Sid has been better than Draisaitl. From game one on.

I was just skimming thru and assumed this statement was about the four nations tournament next year. As things stand right now, Crosby must still be in, right? The Olympics a year later, however... A lot can happen in two years but even then I expect to see Sid in Milano-Cortina.

Ide be willing to bet Sid is on both teams and named captain of both teams.

 

[coooldude]

It's funny, I always find the "if X team goes 0.500, then Y team has to go A-B-C to catch up" to be more illustrative once you get past game 70 or so.

If the Rangers go 0.500, then the Hurricanes would have to go 5-2-0 to catch them. If the Leafs go 0.500, the Lightning would have 7-1-0 to catch them.

I think it shows how hard it is better than "a 15% chance."

Sure if you're taking two specific teams and comparing them. However, this website does that for every team, for their specific matchups, home/away, and including adjustments for how they've been playing lately. So you can look at the whole table and say, "I get why it's only a 15% chance... because there are 4 teams above the Pens with a higher chance, and there are a huge number of games and variables at play." And then there's gobs of info and data to help you parse out all the various situations. To each their own of course.

 

[chethejet]

Pens have a small chance but finishing in the top 10 in the draft is more important to me. Pens need to add young talent to the system the next couple year to give Dubas enough options to develop a new roster to be a team that is true playoff contender.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It's funny, I always find the "if X team goes 0.500, then Y team has to go A-B-C to catch up" to be more illustrative once you get past game 70 or so.

If the Rangers go 0.500, then the Hurricanes would have to go 5-2-0 to catch them. If the Leafs go 0.500, the Lightning would have 7-1-0 to catch them.

I think it shows how hard it is better than "a 15% chance."

The 15 % thing builds in that other teams need to fall apart.

 

[Nakawick]

CcDavid
CcKinnon
Catthews
Craisaitl

Sid would eat Matthews and Draisaitl alive if they were heads up with all else being equal. He would not be outclassed or perhaps even better some of the time in the same situations against Mackinnon or McDavid.

 

[SomeDude]

Looks like they are back in it? 3 points out currently.

that says more about how pathetic the race in the East is than how good the Pens are. I suppose it’s nice to be noticed again, though.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sid would eat Matthews alive

This is a ridiculous opinion in 2024.

 

[Shrimper]

This is a ridiculous opinion in 2024.

Not sure why you've omitted the rest of his quote. You've taken it out of context.

 

[IamNotADancer]

Looks like they might still squeeze in

 

[coooldude]

Looks like they might still squeeze in

Except the Isles are also winning and will have a better % chance to make it, and the Caps will themselves still have a better chance to make it still. It's gonna go down to the wire.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Even as a Pens fan, I still don’t think their chances are good. They have a murderers row of team to go through.

Wings and Islanders will be must win games. Then need to pick up at least a couple more points against the Bruins, Leafs, Predators, and Lightning.

Except the Isles are also winning and will have a better % chance to make it, and the Caps will themselves still have a better chance to make it still. It's gonna go down to the wire.

Pens beat the Islanders the last game, they have the better RW. Islanders need to be farther away than 2 points as it currently stands.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Flyers-Islanders-Capitals-Red Wings-Penguins is a true battle of who will fail the least down the stretch here, lol.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Pens make the playoffs getting throttled in the first round and still retain Sullivan.

That’s what nightmares are made of.

One positive is that Bunting is looking much better than I thought he would.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Pens make the playoffs getting throttled in the first round and still retain Sullivan.

That’s what nightmares are made of.

One positive is that Bunting is looking much better than I thought he would.

They will retain Sullivan no matter what happens.