The Rest of This Year and Beyond

[Opak]

What am I missing here that getting bxa to waive would’ve solved that problem? We still had 4 dmen to protect and only 3 spots available?

In this post, there was a link to a blog post, where the blogger reported the contents of an interview between Hayward and Murray. In said interview, Bob admitted that he and Shero started talking to each other sometime prior to the 2017 entry draft, about NJ needing a Dman and the Ducks needing a C.

The idea is that if there was discussion between the two, maybe the Rico for Vatanen deal could've gone down before the expansion draft, which would've meant that we could've protected everybody while keeping Theodore in the fold, had we just decided to commit to a Bieksa buyout. Or had we succeeded in convincing him to waive, that would've worked out too.

IMO the logic is there, but the "maybe" part of it has to be heavily emphasized. Firstly, it's implied in the interview that it was the emergence of a couple of younger guys that officially made Henrique expendable to NJ. Second, it's also implied in the text that neither GM was willing to do anything then and there, but instead wanted to re-visit the trade idea later. Lastly, we have absolutely no idea of the exact timeline of when these talks with Shero took place, we only know that they happened "before the draft". The expansion draft was held between June 18th and 20th, with the results being released on June 21st, whereas the entry draft was held between June 23rd and 24th. So it's very possible that the talks happened sometime during the days between the expansion and the entry draft, in which case the trade timing wouldn't have made that much of a difference in the long run.

In this instance I don't like to speculate with what should've or could've been done, especially since we don't have all the facts and hindsight is always 20/20. But like Spazkat posted above, if the only long-term asset we got for trading Vatanen and giving Theodore away is a ****ing 3rd rounder, one has to start asking all kinds of questions. As it currently stands, Rico holds the vast majority of the value that we got back in the Vegas/NJ trades, so in that sense it's very important how Bob decides to handle the Henrique situation. IMO Bob can not allow him to walk as a UFA in any circumstances, which only leaves us with the options of either trading him or extending him.

 

[Getzmonster]

Next season:

Rakell - Getzlaf (NMC) - Perry (NMC)
Ritchie (RFA) - Henrique - Kase (RFA)
Cogliano (NTC) - Kesler (NMC) - Silfverberg
X - X - Eaves (?)(NTC)

Fowler (NTC) - Montour (RFA)
Lindholm - Manson (NTC*)
X - X
Holzer

Gibson - Miller (NTC)

* Start of 19-20 season

Total cap hit: $63 million
Total salaries: $68.8 million
Estimated cap space: $12 million

Guys fighting for roster spots:
Roy (RFA), Kossila (RFA), Kerdiles (RFA), Welinski (RFA), Jones, Steel, Terry (?), Larsson, Pettersson, Mahura, Megna, Blandisi, Fiore, maybe more?


The "crew" is definitely not going to change a lot, that much is certain. As it currently stands, we only have four roster spots available, and could have a LOT of guys competing for those. One doesn't have to be a genius to realize that we may have a problem here.

One thing is certain though -- IF we choose to extend some of these guys, this is absolutely the last chance for Roy, Kossila, Kerdiles, Welinski, Blandisi and Megna to crack the NHL roster. They'll soon lose their waiver exemption status, if they haven't already, and we're all perfectly aware of how Bob likes to handle those situations...

Not sure if $12 million is enough to sign our key RFAs and fill the vacant roster spots, especially when Bob is on tape saying that he wants to somehow bring in another "Josh Manson", and that he wants to add another goalie on a long-term contract. Bob will no doubt nickel and dime Ritchie onto a bridge deal of some sort, but I'd look for longer-term contracts for Montour and Kase, perhaps somewhere in the $3 million AAV range each?

If the money isn't enough, the attention then turns to Silfverberg and Henrique, who only have a year remaining on their contracts and have relatively large salaries ($3.75 and $5.5 million, respectively). Silf's play as of late has definitely put him on the trade board, if he doesn't pick up the pace I'd say there's a fairly good chance that he's getting dealt during the offseason. No idea what Bob does with Henrique, but one thing is for certain -- if that NJ 3rd rounder is all that he has to show from that Vatanen trade, he's going to look like an absolute idiot. IMO he either has to extend Rico or trade him to get some futures, but he can't afford to just let Rico hit UFA.

I'd like to see Kossila and Grant split 4C duties next season. Let the other bubble guys compete for the remaining spots (Roy, Kerdiles, Blandisi, etc.), but some of those guys we'll have to cut bait on. Let Steel, Terry, Jones, Larsson, Pettersson, Mahura and any first time pros develop in the AHL, with potential to leapfrog their way to the big club if they really wow everyone at camp. Welinski is the guy that needs a longer look, preferably this season, and should be penciled in for the 3rd pairing next season. A lot depends on what Murray does with that "Manson type" comment though, if he adds another decent RD, then Welinski will likely be gone. I could see Megna being the new Holzer if he sticks around, or gets swapped for another team's whatever prospect to give him an opportunity elsewhere.

 

[Spazkat]

What am I missing here that getting bxa to waive would’ve solved that problem? We still had 4 dmen to protect and only 3 spots available?

Had we traded Vats for a forward before the expansion draft (that we had an available protection spot for) and gotten Bieksa to waive Manson takes that 3rd D protection spot that was wasted on BXA and we still have Theo.

Edit- ignore this I didn't read before posting and Opak covered this far more extensively

 

[bumperkisser]

I'd like to see Kossila and Grant split 4C duties next season. Let the other bubble guys compete for the remaining spots (Roy, Kerdiles, Blandisi, etc.), but some of those guys we'll have to cut bait on. Let Steel, Terry, Jones, Larsson, Pettersson, Mahura and any first time pros develop in the AHL, with potential to leapfrog their way to the big club if they really wow everyone at camp. Welinski is the guy that needs a longer look, preferably this season, and should be penciled in for the 3rd pairing next season. A lot depends on what Murray does with that "Manson type" comment though, if he adds another decent RD, then Welinski will likely be gone. I could see Megna being the new Holzer if he sticks around, or gets swapped for another team's whatever prospect to give him an opportunity elsewhere.

grant deserves to be an everyday nhl player. if they're splitting 4C duties then i hope grant gets moved to the wing while kossila is in C.

 

[AngelDuck]

Grant has the 4C spot locked up at this point. He's going to be cheap to re-sign too. He's Thompson, but younger and doesn't get injured. A+ dumpster dive.

 

[bsu]

Love Grant. Hope he is re-signed.

 

[Getzmonster]

grant deserves to be an everyday nhl player. if they're splitting 4C duties then i hope grant gets moved to the wing while kossila is in C.

Either way, Grant should be back and Kossila needs to get another shot. No more has-beens and spare parts, let's go with the young talent. Grant has shown that he plays well alongside skilled players.

 

[branmuffin17]

Interesting to see that we've already started to see what looks to be a true shift in how our D will be deployed not only for the rest of the season (hopefully) but also as a top 4 base for next season.

Even though we're seeing some great numbers from the Fowler/Montour line, I still personally would like the old Fowler/Manson and Lindholm/Montour lines to be given a shot. Feel it provides better balance overall.

What's everyone's opinion on deployment regarding time? Fowler's still getting 25 minutes a night and has generally shown to be able to handle high minutes well...still think giving more even minutes to Lindholm would be good overall, but we've also talked about how increasing Lindholm's TOI seems to drop his effectiveness...am I recalling this correctly?

 

[DaGeneral]

I think previously Lindholm would be running out of gas come playoff time, right around when ice time begins to get ramped up. But last year he finally seemed to clear that hurdle.

Fowler 25 mins
Lindholm 23
Manson 22
Montour 22

 

[Paul4587]

Interesting to see that we've already started to see what looks to be a true shift in how our D will be deployed not only for the rest of the season (hopefully) but also as a top 4 base for next season.

Even though we're seeing some great numbers from the Fowler/Montour line, I still personally would like the old Fowler/Manson and Lindholm/Montour lines to be given a shot. Feel it provides better balance overall.

What's everyone's opinion on deployment regarding time? Fowler's still getting 25 minutes a night and has generally shown to be able to handle high minutes well...still think giving more even minutes to Lindholm would be good overall, but we've also talked about how increasing Lindholm's TOI seems to drop his effectiveness...am I recalling this correctly?

A few years ago it definitely was but if he’s ever going to become effective playing those minutes then we have to actually give him those minutes. Manson definitely is one guy who struggles as the season goes on but last season for the first time didn’t wear out down the stretch.

I’m not sure Fowler does handle the high minutes, he’s had a few years in a row where his second half of the season is worse than the first half. Randy leans on him very heavily although since he’s been paired with Montour he’s been playing easier minutes in terms of zone starts which makes sense as that pairing struggles in the D zone.

In an ideal world it would be:
Lindholm/Fowler 23-24
Manson/Montour 20-21
Beauchemin/Pettersson 16

 

[Duck Off]

A few years ago it definitely was but if he’s ever going to become effective playing those minutes then we have to actually give him those minutes. Manson definitely is one guy who struggles as the season goes on but last season for the first time didn’t wear out down the stretch.

I’m not sure Fowler does handle the high minutes, he’s had a few years in a row where his second half of the season is worse than the first half. Randy leans on him very heavily although since he’s been paired with Montour he’s been playing easier minutes in terms of zone starts which makes sense as that pairing struggles in the D zone.

In an ideal world it would be:
Lindholm/Fowler 23-24
Manson/Montour 20-21
Beauchemin/Pettersson 16

Agreed with this. Although, i'd have Welinski there over Pettersson.

 

[Paul4587]

Agreed with this. Although, i'd have Welinski there over Pettersson.

So would I but I think that’s wishful thinking. Carlyle likes Pettersson I think he’s up for rest of year.

 

[Teemu Salami]

This Gourde guy in Tampa is giving me hope for a breakout season by Roy next year. 5'9" 170lbs, from Quebec, a little bit older, had 6 goals in 20 games last year. Basically his twin if twins were born over a year apart.

 

[Dryish]

I still think Roy's cup of coffee showed he's mere inches away from a breakout. Just needs linemate chemistry and getting used to NHL speed and physicality and he'll be set for what could at best be a Kase-esque development trajectory.

 

[Deuce22]

I like Roy, and think he can be a scorer in the NHL. I'm not sure if it will be under the RC regime, however. RC is not know for playing skilled guys on the 4th line and don't really see an opening for Roy on the 1st or 3rd. I'm assuming that RC will continue to run Kesler's line as a defensive checking one.

 

[Trojans86]

Roy is a slower version of Kase to me. A little development and he is an NHLer.