The Official Tank Thread II

[Pavels Dog]

They could have drafted Mantha without trading down. They risked not having him on the board by doing so. If they needed more draft picks they could have stopped wasting them on deadline rentals for non-contending rosters.

It was Bertuzzi they got from trading down, very good deal. We wasted extremely few draft picks on rentals.

 

[One Blurred Eye]

Green's value could be just as high next season, and if we sign Tatar to a decent contract and he bounces back with a 25+ goal season his value could also go up by a nice amount. No need to desperately sell off every tradeable asset when their value is low and it's a weak draft.

In Green's case, his injury history makes that too much of a gamble for my tastes--he'll be a year older and he's a virtual lock to miss ten games even in a "healthy" season (a mean of 15 and a median of 12 since becoming a full-time NHLer). If he's out significant time or shows signs of serious decline come the deadline next season then his value is squat. Right now we can point to his last four campaigns and say with a straight face that he's been on the ice for the most part making contributions, but rolling the dice on 60 more games next season waiting to see if this team has any chance of making real noise while hoping Green stays healthy and productive enough to sell for a small ransom if the results are the same isn't good asset management in my book. Take what you can get for him now; no sense risking the near-certainty of what we can flip him for this deadline for the small but unlikely possibility that we could get a little more for him next season.

 

[Retire91]

It was Bertuzzi they got from trading down, very good deal. We wasted extremely few draft picks on rentals.

I see your point but I don't think Bertuzzi is going to make or break the organization though and they have traded away as many picks for rentals on playoff failure as they got from trading down. Hind sight allows us to look back and see that the trade downs didn't hurt but the trading down does sacrifice a broader pick of the litter which is alarming for an organization void of elite talent. I have a bad feeling the Choloski trade down is going to hurt, I am not a fan of the neilsen signing either so all around I think that was a loss. Needs time to pan out though.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I see your point but I don't think Bertuzzi is going to make or break the organization though and they have traded away as many picks for rentals on playoff failure as they got from trading down. Hind sight allows us to look back and see that the trade downs didn't hurt but the trading down does sacrifice a broader pick of the litter which is alarming for an organization void of elite talent. I have a bad feeling the Choloski trade down is going to hurt, I am not a fan of the neilsen signing either so all around I think that was a loss. Needs time to pan out though.

I think trading down makes sense if the scouts have a couple of guys they like equally. If we assume they had Chychrun/Fabbro/Cholo ranked about the same there was no reason not to squeeze an extra pick out of it. If they felt Chychrun was going to make or break a franchise, they likely wouldn't have done the deal. That could end up as a mistake, but taking Cholo/Fabbro at #16 and not getting Hronek would have been an even bigger one in that case.
Going into this coming draft for example there seems to be a huge difference in how players beyond the top 3 are ranked. If we're drafting in the 5-10 range, there may be yet another oppportunity to slide a few positions, still get our guy and pick up additional assets.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

But they could have drafted Mantha without trading down. They risked not having him on the board by doing so. If they needed more draft picks they could have stopped trading them for rentals.

LOL I digress though, yes back to the present.

I also think Green could be a better trade next season. Then at least these poor guys also have an outlet pass for the rest of the season.

One last thing on the Mantha trade. They made it because they knew San Jose wanted Mueller. They likely had a very good idea that Columbus wanted Rychel. They made the deal because San Jose was worried Columbus wanted Mueller.

So the "they could have lost him isn't a very good point." If San Jose wanted Mantha, the Wings would have told them to second deck.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I see your point but I don't think Bertuzzi is going to make or break the organization though and they have traded away as many picks for rentals on playoff failure as they got from trading down. Hind sight allows us to look back and see that the trade downs didn't hurt but the trading down does sacrifice a broader pick of the litter which is alarming for an organization void of elite talent. I have a bad feeling the Choloski trade down is going to hurt, I am not a fan of the neilsen signing either so all around I think that was a loss. Needs time to pan out though.

I have the feeling the other way. That Chychrun kinda fell because he was a more developed guy and was closer to his ceiling already.

Basically that he could be a bottom pairing D right now, but his topside success was mid pairing. If that bears out... missing a top 4 D isn't going to kill the franchise. Particularly when it cleared 7.5M in doing so and got two bites at the apple in guys who have lower floors but ostensibly higher ceilings in Cholo and Hronek.

I simply can't see that trade being a touchstone "the Wings ****ed up there" like many of their rentals that did little or the contracts like Abby or Helm.

 

[Frk It]

I simply can't see that trade being a touchstone "the Wings ****ed up there" like many of their rentals that did little or the contracts like Abby or Helm.

Probably can't see it because we're years away from knowing the answer to that.

I'd rather focus on this upcoming draft, and I'd bet a fair share of money we don't drastically trade down in this draft. If anything, I could see us moving from 7 to 9 or something small like that.

 

[lomekian]

Well to be fair, a NTC for a three year deal isn't bad, and honestly, i think his NTC isn't going to be an issue either. I think it will come down to whether Holland is willing to trade him.

Indeed. Especially as being a team that the whole league knows desperately needs a right shot d-man AND equally desperately needs an offensive d-man, being the best offensive right shot d-man on the market in several years puts you in a strong bargaining position. In all honesty, while the money is a little high, the term on that deal was great, especially considering other signings made in recent years.

And yes, I'm sure Green will waive the NTC (or make it a partial one at least) to join a team with a chance of winning something in the rest of his high level window.

 

[lomekian]

That's pretty much how I feel.

The rebuild on the fly crowd rightly points out that the Wings have a lot of good supporting players. Where it falls apart though is how the Wings will somehow turn their middle and late picks to acquire the #1 center and #1 D-man the team desperately needs.

It's true that tanking doesn't always work. But if we're talking about likelihood to actually happen, the rebuild on the fly scenario is even more of a longshot.


(i'm using tanking liberally here. I don't mean intentionally losing. I'm talking about the strategy of using what assets you have to acquire picks and prospects).

Hey, I think the comments on 'the rebuild on the fly crowd' are somewhat outdated. The Rebuild on the fly was only a strategy championed when we were a play-off team.

The larger re-build is inevitable now. The debate now becomes sell UFAs and Green or SELL,SELL,SELL anyone but Z and the best kids....

If you offered D-fans A 1st, 2x 2nds, a 4th and 6th for Green, Vanek, Smith and Ott, 80% would shake your hands today.

 

[LarKing]

Hey, I think the comments on 'the rebuild on the fly crowd' are somewhat outdated. The Rebuild on the fly was only a strategy championed when we were a play-off team.

The larger re-build is inevitable now. The debate now becomes sell UFAs and Green or SELL,SELL,SELL anyone but Z and the best kids....

If you offered D-fans A 1st, 2x 2nds, a 4th and 6th for Green, Vanek, Smith and Ott, 80% would shake your hands today.

I wouldn't. Green is a top pairing defenseman on a solid deal (especially if we retain). I want a 1st + good prospect for him. Vanek is going to be maybe the best forward available. I want at least a 1st for him. With the draft being weaker and it being a buyer's market I don't see those as ridiculous asks at all. Worse players get 1sts+ every single year.

 

[Go Wings]

Hey, I think the comments on 'the rebuild on the fly crowd' are somewhat outdated. The Rebuild on the fly was only a strategy championed when we were a play-off team.

The larger re-build is inevitable now. The debate now becomes sell UFAs and Green or SELL,SELL,SELL anyone but Z and the best kids....

If you offered D-fans A 1st, 2x 2nds, a 4th and 6th for Green, Vanek, Smith and Ott, 80% would shake your hands today.

If I were Detroit I would be trading for 2018 which is looking like a very strong draft instead of this weak 2017 draft.

 

[Ennui]

I wouldn't. Green is a top pairing defenseman on a solid deal (especially if we retain). I want a 1st + good prospect for him. Vanek is going to be maybe the best forward available. I want at least a 1st for him. With the draft being weaker and it being a buyer's market I don't see those as ridiculous asks at all. Worse players get 1sts+ every single year.

As a Wings fan, I could certainly get behind those trade values. It's a bit frustrating that the Wings' beat writers, whether at the Freep or the Detroit News, seem to be dialing down the value expectations for our trade-bait.

It only makes sense to move Green, Vanek and some of the others over the age of 26, as we are likely looking at a 5 year rebuild for the team IF we are very lucky; we would likely be wasting the salary, trade value and best years of players like Green if we held on to them.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If I were Detroit I would be trading for 2018 which is looking like a very strong draft instead of this weak 2017 draft.

If I were any other team than Detroit, I'd hold on to my 2018 picks and trade my 2017 picks for rentals.

 

[Ennui]

If I were any other team than Detroit, I'd hold on to my 2018 picks and trade my 2017 picks for rentals.

A team like Chicago might make a decent mark; they desperately want to hold on to their 1st round pick this year as the draft will be held in Chicago -- fine! We would still be happy to trade them one slightly used Vanek for their 2018 1st rounder; they get their player at the deadline, get their 2017 draft pick in the spotlights of their home-town arena, they should be willing to accept it, or they can find other trading partners.

Vanek has proven with this dismal season that he can heavily contribute to the team's offense, if they want what he offers a team can pay fair value for him.

 

[TheMule93]

I'm honestly pretty enthusiastic about missing the playoffs. I dont think the team could have been managed any worse than it was from 2012 onward. We essentially wasted five years doing absolutely nothing - just wasting away the years. The only way it can get worse is if Holland continues doing what he's done since 2012... but I think missing the playoffs will finally cause some change. Literally anything is better. Jesus Christ I'm kinda mad just thinking about what Holland has done. What a ****ing waste of time probably for the illitches greedy pockets (MUST EXTEND TEH STREAK ITS GOOD FOR MARKETING)

 

[Heaton]

I think Holland believes the team this year was just unlucky. He'll manage the team next season as if it's a playoff team and be as reactive as ever.

 

[jkutswings]

If San Jose wanted Mantha, the Wings would have told them to second deck.

I see ya, big fella.

 

[Ennui]

I think Holland believes the team this year was just unlucky. He'll manage the team next season as if it's a playoff team and be as reactive as ever.

I think that would require some prescription-grade crazy pills.

 

[jkutswings]

I think that would require some prescription-grade crazy pills.

Or long-term exposure to synthetic elastomers, petroleum, and latex. Gotta kick those tires, yo.

 

[guinness]

I think that would require some prescription-grade crazy pills.

Unfortunately, those are a thing.

I'm OK with the Wings losing at this point, because what's another 1st round exit vs a top 5/10 pick? They need playmakers.

The team just has too many holes to keep plugging the dam, so maybe the timing with the new arena is a blessing, as it could be the start of a new era/clean break.

The coaching situation is so-so for me, as I don't think the talent is there, but I also don't know what sort of identity the team is trying to put together either with some of the lineups.

Bad team is bad. It's painful hockey to watch and I don't know how people back home could keep doing it this season.

 

[Bondurant]

I splurged on a lower bowl ticket for when the Wings roll into Phoenix in March. Purchased a few months back as part of a package to see Michigan play ASU.

Game is going to be brutal. It's hard to see how bad they are.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I splurged on a lower bowl ticket for when the Wings roll into Phoenix in March. Purchased a few months back as part of a package to see Michigan play ASU.

Game is going to be brutal. It's hard to see how bad they are.

Booze can make anything fun.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I think Holland believes the team this year was just unlucky. He'll manage the team next season as if it's a playoff team and be as reactive as ever.

Yeah i can definitely see that happening.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

It was Bertuzzi they got from trading down, very good deal. We wasted extremely few draft picks on rentals.

Bertuzzi the kid they could have got in the 7TH round since he as projected as a 7TH round pick or undrafted.


207TH to,be exact

 

[Mijatovic]

Bertuzzi the kid they could have got in the 7TH round since he as projected as a 7TH round pick or undrafted.


207TH to,be exact

Didnt realise projections guarenteed thats where players went.