The Official Tank Thread II

[aar000n]

The Wings weren't building towards anything over the past five years.

They were just trying to keep the status quo going. The goal wasn't to get better. The goal was to not get worse.

That type of team building philosophy will almost always lead to a bottoming out where a traditional rebuild has to take place. It takes too long and requires far too much luck for it to succeed.

If you think traditional rebuilds are too unpredictable and require too much luck to pull off, then rebuilding on the fly takes even more luck. Expecting an organization to draft elite talent in the 15-20 range on a more consistent basis then a team that is drafting in the top five over the span of five years is insane.

Frankly it's insulting to the rest of the league to suggest otherwise.

Why sign dead weight like Ericson, dek helm sheham if we are trying to make the playoffs?

 

[InjuredChoker]

I will say with the unfortunate death of mike illitch if the philosophy might change. I believe Ken holland reported directly to MI. So with the kids running the show if they will put an effort into winning again. First by getting rid of holland.

i believe the kid(s) have been more or less running the show for few years now.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Why sign dead weight like Ericson, dek helm sheham if we are trying to make the playoffs?

Because Holland thinks they give us the best chance of continuing to make the playoffs, which is his goal.

He doesn't see them as dead weight, he sees them as solid vets (and to be fair, some of them are, albeit grossly overpaid for what they provide)

 

[RedWingsfan55]

i believe the kid(s) have been more or less running the show for few years now.

That may be. Cause MI was more focussed on the tigers these last few years.

 

[jkutswings]

Because Holland thinks they give us the best chance of continuing to make the playoffs, which is his goal.

He doesn't see them as dead weight, he sees them as solid vets (and to be fair, some of them are, albeit grossly overpaid for what they provide)

He does indeed, strange as that seems to me. There are a lot of headscratcher moments these days, with people in and around the organization saying everything they can about how the team just needs a small tweak here or there to be right back on track.

Last night on the radio, I actually heard Paul Woods say that Brendan Smith was a very smart player, and that Detroit needs more guys like him.

Now bless his heart, but Woodsy, ya might be crazy.

 

[Reddwit]

Why do you think tank can only be at the beginning of the season? If Wings are trading Vanek, Ott, and/or Green/Nyquist/Tatar or whoever else at deadline for draft picks, that is a tank.

If Wings are trading those assets to upgrade... say for Shattenkirk (for example), that is not a tank.

If Ken Holland opts to keep Ott and Vanek, that is not a tank.

And I would be very happy if Ken Holland re-signs Vanek to 2 more years.

But I regress, I don't think you have to announce you're team is tanking at the start of the season for it to be 'officially' a tank. It could be giving up on the season and selling for picks. Which also means if you're selling Green, Vanek, Nyquist for example, that weakens next season and the season after. Which also means tank (unless they upgrade those players during free agency).

So what you're saying is that if the Wings are merely sellers, then they are tanking? Do you realize that basically means every team in the past decade has tanked (including San Jose) by that definition?

That's an absurd definition. In fact, keeping UFAs like Vanek, Smith, and Ott instead of trading them is more akin to tanking, because you're keeping guys who won't stick around next year and yet getting nothing of value to your organization. What a great idea!

 

[Reddwit]

I will say with the unfortunate death of mike illitch if the philosophy might change. I believe Ken holland reported directly to MI. So with the kids running the show if they will put an effort into winning again. First by getting rid of holland.

No he hasn't. Mike has been practically a vegetable for at least a few years now. He hasn't even made public appearances in a while, even at what would be some of the biggest events in his life.

If there was any "reporting" to Mike, it was ceremonial at best. Chris was and has been the guy for a while now. Him, Marian, and Jimmy D. And Marian still has it together.

If there's a time to worry, it'll be when Marian goes. Then Chris might not feel beholden to his parents' vision.

 

[AD1066]

do you have better odds of winning the cup if you miss or make the playoffs?

Say rebuilding on the fly around a declining / non-existent core gives a franchise Cup odds each year of something like:

3%, 3%, 3%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 1%, 1%, 1%

and say selling off assets with the goal of drafting high-end players gives a team annual odds of:

0%, 0%, 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%

A Cup is never be guaranteed but the odds of winning at least once would be almost twice as high in the latter scenario. I think you're focusing too much on the bolded.

 

[obey86]

Say rebuilding on the fly around a declining / non-existent core gives a franchise Cup odds each year of something like:

3%, 3%, 3%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 1%, 1%, 1%

and say selling off assets with the goal of drafting high-end players gives a team annual odds of:

0%, 0%, 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%

A Cup is never be guaranteed but the odds of winning at least once would be almost twice as high in the latter scenario. I think you're focusing too much on the bolded.

There's no guarantee a team ever gets back to where they were (in the playoffs every year, even if first round fodder) in the 2nd scenario, let alone increases their odds.

 

[Flowah]

There's no guarantee a team ever gets back to where they were (in the playoffs every year, even if first round fodder) in the 2nd scenario, let alone increases their odds.

Why are you talking about guarantees when literally everybody but you was talking about probability?

 

[jkutswings]

There's no guarantee a team ever gets back to where they were (in the playoffs every year, even if first round fodder) in the 2nd scenario, let alone increases their odds.

When you're learning to ride a bike, many people start with training wheels. They help stabilize the bike, and help prevent a fall (but do not completely guarantee that a fall will never happen).

Once the person has learned sufficient balance and coordination, the training wheels can be removed, and the person can learn to balance the bike completely on their own.

The risk of removing the training wheels is that they might fall. The risk of not removing them is that they'll never be able to ride at full speed, or perform sharper turns, or other advanced riding techniques.

Now I get that there's no guarantee that the Wings will ever fully ride this metaphorical bike again...

But if you run a team with such paranoia of ever falling off the bike - or of ever being able to at least ride as well as you did with training wheels - you're in the wrong business.

In the words of Shawshank Redemption:

"Get busy livin', or get busy dyin'."

 

[AD1066]

There's no guarantee a team ever gets back to where they were (in the playoffs every year, even if first round fodder) in the 2nd scenario, let alone increases their odds.

When the alternative is an utterly pointless slide into irrelevance, I'm willing to take that chance.

Of the three ways to improve a team (draft, trade, FA acquisitions), which does Holland do and which does he do well?

If we accept the premise that elite talent is needed to contend for a Cup, and that we are short on elite talent, how do we expect to acquire it?

Our drafting is average and has been since 2000.
We participate in fewer trades than, I believe, every other organization in the league.
And it's rare for elite players to hit free agency, let alone sign with a bottom-feeder, which we now are.

Vanek, Green, Nielsen, Ott, locking up guys like Abdelakder long-term -- it's all treading water at best. I'd much rather be in Toronto's position, regardless of whether they make the playoffs this year.

 

[Frk It]

There's no guarantee a team ever gets back to where they were (in the playoffs every year, even if first round fodder) in the 2nd scenario, let alone increases their odds.

If guarantees are what you're after, you won't really find them anywhere in sports. Unless you want to root for the Harlem Globetrotters or the UCONN women's basketball team.

There's no guarantee we go back to being a playoff team without tanking. There's no guarantee we go back to being a playoff team with tanking.

There were no guarantees we found elite players re-building on the fly. There's no guarantee we will get one with a top 10 pick.

Sorry if that bums you out. All we can really do is look to the teams or scenarios that have yielded the results we are looking for, and hope we can do the same. We tried doing the unprecedented and it didn't work out. Unless you have a new ground-breaking unprecedented strategy that hasn't been tried yet you want to suggest.

Our drafting is average and has been since 2000.

If you factor in where we draft, we have been above average. Even if we haven't drafted an elite player in that time frame. You're not supposed to find elite players where we have drafted. Guys like Tatar, Nyquist, Filppula, Fleischmann, Hudler, Franzen have produced in line with the average PPG of guys drafted in the 5-7 range from 1998-2010.

 

[obey86]

If guarantees are what you're after, you won't really find them anywhere in sports. Unless you want to root for the Harlem Globetrotters or the UCONN women's basketball team.

There's no guarantee we go back to being a playoff team without tanking. There's no guarantee we go back to being a playoff team with tanking.

There were no guarantees we found elite players re-building on the fly. There's no guarantee we will get one with a top 10 pick.

Sorry if that bums you out. All we can really do is look to the teams or scenarios that have yielded the results we are looking for, and hope we can do the same. We tried doing the unprecedented and it didn't work out. Unless you have a new ground-breaking unprecedented strategy that hasn't been tried yet you want to suggest.

So, we should try to draft 2 generational superstars like Pittsburgh?

Or we should we be bad and draft top 10 for near 10 years straight like the Blackhawks before finally hitting on a few players?

Scenario A isn't likely to happen ever again for any team.
Scenario B involves being bad for like 10 straight years. Pass.

Fact of the matter is that pretty much every team that rebuilds does so after becoming organically bad, like the Wings have this year.

It's very easy to see a way the Wings are back competing for the playoffs in 2-3 seasons and easily on the upswing. Keep the solid supporting cast they have (Mantha, AA, Larkin, even Nyquist or Tatar), and make your top draft picks over the next couple years count. Obviously the Wings will need to hit on their top draft picks the next few seasons, but that holds true for any rebuilding scenario. Teams like the Sabres tore everything down and got their top picks, now are trying to build up the supporting cast to become competitive. The Wings simply have the option to do the opposite from this point forward now that they are really bad but with solid supporting cast type players.

 

[Frk It]

So, we should try to draft 2 generational superstars like Pittsburgh?

Or we should we be bad and draft top 10 for near 10 years straight like the Blackhawks before finally hitting on a few players?

Scenario A isn't likely to happen ever again for any team.
Scenario B involves being bad for like 10 straight years. Pass.

Fact of the matter is that pretty much every team that rebuilds does so after becoming organically bad, like the Wings have this year.

It's very easy to see a way the Wings are back competing for the playoffs in 2-3 seasons and easily on the upswing. Keep the solid supporting cast they have (Mantha, AA, Larkin, even Nyquist or Tatar), and make your top draft picks over the next couple years count. Obviously the Wings will need to hit on their top draft picks the next few seasons, but that holds true for any rebuilding scenario. Teams like the Sabres tore everything down and got their top picks, now are trying to build up the supporting cast to become competitive. The Wings simply have the option to do the opposite from this point forward now that they are really bad but with solid supporting cast type players.

No, we should aim for a situation that realistically could actually apply to us.

Maybe more like LA finding Doughty at #2 and Kopitar at #11. No we are not going to find Crosby and Malkin, because those players won't come around for another 5-10 years. I'm not going to disagree with you on that.

It's hard (building a contender). I'm not trying to tell you it's easy. Teams like Tampa, Florida, Buffalo should be better than they are... but they're just not. You'd think a team with 2 of the best players in the world (Pittsburgh) wouldn't go 7 years between Stanley Cup appearances, but they did.

 

[Konnan511]

Any chance we see Hronek on Detroit next season if we sell off some of our DMen this season?

 

[obey86]

No, we should aim for a situation that realistically could actually apply to us.

Maybe more like LA finding Doughty at #2 and Kopitar at #11. No we are not going to find Crosby and Malkin, because those players won't come around for another 5-10 years. I'm not going to disagree with you on that.

It's hard (building a contender). I'm not trying to tell you it's easy. Teams like Tampa, Florida, Buffalo should be better than they are... but they're just not. You'd think a team with 2 of the best players in the world (Pittsburgh) wouldn't go 7 years between Stanley Cup appearances, but they did.

Yes, before I changed my post I was actually going to mention the kings rebuild as something the Wings could potentially attain given their current situation.

They became organically bad and hit on a few higher picks without having to tear the entire team down. Could easily see that happening with the wings if they pick the right players the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[Dotter]

So what you're saying is that if the Wings are merely sellers, then they are tanking? Do you realize that basically means every team in the past decade has tanked (including San Jose) by that definition?

That's an absurd definition. In fact, keeping UFAs like Vanek, Smith, and Ott instead of trading them is more akin to tanking, because you're keeping guys who won't stick around next year and yet getting nothing of value to your organization. What a great idea!

Source?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Any chance we see Hronek on Detroit next season if we sell off some of our DMen this season?

Realistically, no.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

No he hasn't. Mike has been practically a vegetable for at least a few years now. He hasn't even made public appearances in a while, even at what would be some of the biggest events in his life.

If there was any "reporting" to Mike, it was ceremonial at best. Chris was and has been the guy for a while now. Him, Marian, and Jimmy D. And Marian still has it together.

If there's a time to worry, it'll be when Marian goes. Then Chris might not feel beholden to his parents' vision.

But yet with the tigers he was directly apart of the big FA acquisitions while we had DD has the GM, going all in for a world series.

 

[Dotter]

Would love to see Wings move out tatar, vanek and green for 1sts and prospects. Let AA move up into the top 6

Trade Nyquist, sheahan and smith for vatanen, despres

Hopefully Howard gets taken in the expansion draft

Draft a center in the top 5. Hague in middle to late 1st round

Take on a forward or two with a bad contract for picks and prospects

Well according to NBC Sports article I read, there should be a lot of teams that may seriously consider selling their 1st round draft selections this season because of the projected "terrible" upcoming draft.

If Wings are sellers, they might be able to trade their assets for 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders since teams know this draft year sucks royally.

 

[Heaton]

Well according to NBC Sports article I read, there should be a lot of teams that may seriously consider selling their 1st round draft selections this season because of the projected "terrible" upcoming draft.

If Wings are sellers, they might be able to trade their assets for 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders since teams know this draft year sucks royally.

Hope they're wrong or the wings rebuild will take that much longer.

 

[jkutswings]

Well according to NBC Sports article I read, there should be a lot of teams that may seriously consider selling their 1st round draft selections this season because of the projected "terrible" upcoming draft.

If Wings are sellers, they might be able to trade their assets for 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders since teams know this draft year sucks royally.

I just read the article. And the reference the above claim comes from.

Which is tied to one anonymous NHL executive - rank unknown - that keeps texting this guy.

Is this draft held in lower regard? Yes.
Is it possible that first rounders will be easier to trade for because of it? Yes.
But I don't think this article is any less "GM speak" than all the fluff comments from guys like Stan Bowman who are currently saying that they like their team, and probably won't do anything at all at the deadline.

I lot of it will come down to how a handful of teams are playing during the week immediately before the deadline. But hopefully there are at least 2-3 buyers, and hopefully Detroit can get a good return on at least 1-2 pending UFAs.

 

[aar000n]

Because Holland thinks they give us the best chance of continuing to make the playoffs, which is his goal.

He doesn't see them as dead weight, he sees them as solid vets (and to be fair, some of them are, albeit grossly overpaid for what they provide)

the problem is in order to win you have to get the best team out there. So he has failed to even do that. He has failed in trades, he has failed in free agents the only good thing he has done is drafting.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Would love to see Wings move out tatar, vanek and green for 1sts and prospects. Let AA move up into the top 6

Trade Nyquist, sheahan and smith for vatanen, despres

Hopefully Howard gets taken in the expansion draft

Draft a center in the top 5. Hague in middle to late 1st round

Take on a forward or two with a bad contract for picks and prospects

I'm fine with trading Vanek, Nyquist, Jurco and Smith at the TDL. That could conceivably get you a 1st, a 2nd and maybe two 3rd round draft choices. I'd consider moving Green but I'd be willing to wait until the summer if necessary. Tatar is a 20+ goal scorer on a better team with better coaching and he's still under club control so you don't trade him unless someone makes you a great offer like a Fowler level d-man...which ain't happening.

We're stuck with Howard, no way around that one, unfortunately. Sheahan is a non-factor and I can't imagine anyone has any interest in him. I'd probably put him on a checking line and see if he can develop into a shutdown forward, he's never going to be a goal scorer. I was wrong on him, under Babcock I thought he'd be better than Abdelakder. Sheahan is on pace to go -30. WTF?