The Long Fix Rebuild

[razor ray]

Just looking at CapFriendlyshows how much of a disaster the Red Wings payroll is:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/redwings

This is not a 1 year fix, or two for that matter. 2020 might be a year to consider a turning point year because this roster is laced with not bad but horrific contracts. In this current situation, the the next few years are going to be flat out painful.

So why waste time trying to make a quick turn around when the roster/payroll needs a cleansing. As much as I dislike Toronto, Detroit needs to follow their playbook.

First suggestion is take on a few more bad short-term/dead money contracts, like Toronto did, to get rid of a few bad long-term deals. DeyKeyser comes to mind.

Second, tank for a few years and draft for the long-term....its better to take a "development " prospect in the draft right now then someone who can help right away. Detroit has 6 picks in the first 3 rounds in this draft and 3 picks in the first 2 rounds next year.

Third, don't buy anyone out. Just take the hit right now and stink it up.

The East is going to be very strong for the next few years so why fight to get bounced in the first round or barely not make the playoffs. My thought is to try to draft in the top 5 and pray that a guy like Rasmus Dahlin is in a Red Wing uniform.

Guys like Larkin, Matta, Cale Maker (2017), Dahlin (2018), are something to build around.

Click to read more...

 

[Spitfire11]

This would be the correct way to go about contending again. It's not what I expect they'll do though.

 

[Leronziia]

This is wise.

Quick fixes don't work when rebuilding franchises/rosters, particularly given the circumstances.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Yep, this would pretty much be my plan. I'll add on that we should probably try to move secondary pieces that have value. Guys like Nyquist who aren't good enough to build around but still should be worth something. I'd like to get pieces that will complement our next core from anyone who will be declining by the time we are ready to turn things around.

Besides that small addition I think we're on the same page. Really I think it just recognizing that this team is really bad and we're going to need big changes to fix it. Recognize that and it's obvious that patience + building through the draft is the only reasonable course of action. Unfortunately I'm sure Holland is heading in a different direction but one can always hope...

 

[Martinez]

Hopefully Holland feels the same way

 

[Reddwit]

This isn't ground-breaking. The reason we don't have extensive conversations about these scenarios on this forum is because they'll never happen under Holland's tenure.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Eh. We need to get rid of several of Mantha/Mrazek/Nyquist/Tatar/Larkin/Svechnikov/etc to guarantee a bottom 3 finish and even then we might not get a top 3 pick with the lottery system. We can let the chips fall where they may and get a top 3 pick anyway if our youngsters suck. Or if we have lottery luck and move up from #5-10. Only if our youngsters do good things are we getting out of the top 10 picks and even then we have a shot at doing what Philly did. Only if one or two youngsters emerge as core players do we get into the playoffs and lose the chance at a top 3 pick.
I don't see the benefit of gutting the roster in the offseason to chase a poor position in the standings that we might get anyway if things are truly as bleak as people think. Use the TDL to add extra picks if we suck.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

There is no realistic alternative. People can talk about trying something else, but all roads lead to being cellar dwellers for several years with the hope that the Wings get lucky and draft an elite core.

Earliest season the Wings get back into the playoffs is 2022. That's assuming Holland doesn't continue to waste everyone's time.

There is no alternative. It's either going for lottery picks now or 3-4 more years of 7-10 picks and then going for lottery picks.

 

[njx9]

There is no alternative. It's either going for lottery picks now or 3-4 more years of 7-10 picks and then going for lottery picks.

While I fully believe the team needs to suck it up and rebuild properly, the new lottery format has made it significantly more likely that the team spends the next 3-4 years in the #5-#10 wilderness, than ending up with a Dahlin (or whoever).

I think the new system, barring some inexplicably good luck or a dramatic shift in scouting Cs and Ds, has just pushed the team's rebuild out several more years.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

While I fully believe the team needs to suck it up and rebuild properly, the new lottery format has made it significantly more likely that the team spends the next 3-4 years in the #5-#10 wilderness, than ending up with a Dahlin (or whoever).

I think the new system, barring some inexplicably good luck or a dramatic shift in scouting Cs and Ds, has just pushed the team's rebuild out several more years.

The really bad teams are still going to draft high

I don't foresee the worse team consistently falling to fourth pick year over year

 

[Retire91]

I don't want the team to tank. But they need to stop handing out franchise contracts to mediocre players like Helm, Dekyser, Abby, Neilson. The organization has to wait for those contracts to start running out before another window can open.

The other thing they need to do is stop signing veteran mediocrity to patch holes.

The team shouldn't be bad on purpose but if its loosely patched with veterans during the down years where the torch is being passed you miss all the high draft picks you would have had while the youngsters develop.

That is what Holland did, interrupted the organic string of high picks we would have had by using bandaids on an aging roster with absolutely no playoff success to show for it. Now a team completely divod of young elite talent and picking outside of the top 5 as the young players mature and keep out of that range in the standings. Its a complete failure as a GM from any point of analysis. The team missed the window for acquiring new elite talent because the wings wanted to keep the streak alive by utilizing a bunch of washed up and very uninteresting veterans.

I agree with a lot of what you are posting, but no tank, tanking is lame.

 

[Winger98]

I don't think there is a lot of focus on the idea of a long fix because it's really the default fix. Unless we get a bit lucky, the club's going to get worse, and it's going to be gradual, and we're going to slowly accumulate more high picks and good/great prospects. If this is the way we end up having to go, I'm not sure selling a bunch of guys off right now is going to necessarily make that process any quicker.

My advice is that if you really want a long fix to just be patient, it's probably going to happen.

The really bad teams are still going to draft high

I don't foresee the worse team consistently falling to fourth pick year over year

Neither do I, but how often is a draft even 3 deep in elite talents? There are a lot of years where there are arguably only one or none. Edmonton is held up as the poster child for bad management, inept drafting, etc., but the truth is that the majority of the drafts they picked high were really mediocre drafts. They got good players out of them, not always the best but good, but there weren't any McDavid or Matthews or Eichel level guys.

 

[Frk It]

Plan should be pretty simple.

-Only sign UFA's to deals over 3+ years if they are under 30 and an impact player.
-If they are over 30, only sign to 1-2 years deals (low risk), and if you are out of playoffs at the TDL then look to move these players. If that means they sign elsewhere, let them.
-Prioritize the development/deployment of your young talent. Live and die by them. This is the most important step of all.
-Don't feel obliged to give homegrown players contracts when they hit UFA that are non-essential players, when you feel like you are giving too much term or AAV.
-Look at trades where you could come out the winner in 3-5 years. See if you can give someone (a contender) a contributor now for someone that could be a bigger contributor in the future.

 

[Flowah]

Eh. We need to get rid of several of Mantha/Mrazek/Nyquist/Tatar/Larkin/Svechnikov/etc to guarantee a bottom 3 finish and even then we might not get a top 3 pick with the lottery system. We can let the chips fall where they may and get a top 3 pick anyway if our youngsters suck.

We finished pretty close to the bottom this season. We're not going to be any better next season. Tatar and Nyquist aren't entering their prime. Zetterberg was incredible this season but I don't expect him to repeat that and definitely not to exceed it. Svech, Larkin, Mantha aren't enough to improve this team's standings next season.

It would take only a nudge to make us a true bottom feeder.

 

[BinCookin]

Plan should be pretty simple.

-Only sign UFA's to deals over 3+ years if they are under 30 and an impact player.
-If they are over 30, only sign to 1-2 years deals (low risk), and if you are out of playoffs at the TDL then look to move these players. If that means they sign elsewhere, let them.
-Prioritize the development/deployment of your young talent. Live and die by them. This is the most important step of all.
-Don't feel obliged to give homegrown players contracts when they hit UFA that are non-essential players, when you feel like you are giving too much term or AAV.
-Look at trades where you could come out the winner in 3-5 years. See if you can give someone (a contender) a contributor now for someone that could be a bigger contributor in the future.

If they follow these general rules moving forward, then i think that is the most we can ask for. Good list.

 

[BinCookin]

We finished pretty close to the bottom this season. We're not going to be any better next season. Tatar and Nyquist aren't entering their prime. Zetterberg was incredible this season but I don't expect him to repeat that and definitely not to exceed it. Svech, Larkin, Mantha aren't enough to improve this team's standings next season.

It would take only a nudge to make us a true bottom feeder.

likewise, a nudge into the other direction makes us a bubble team, as much as people around here want to be "the best" or nothing.... its much more probable, even following frk's rules, that we improve vs get worse.

 

[Flowah]

likewise, a nudge into the other direction makes us a bubble team, as much as people around here want to be "the best" or nothing.... its much more probable, even following frk's rules, that we improve vs get worse.

I disagree completely.

1. It is always easier to get worse than get better.
2. Our best players are still in the downswing of their careers. Green, Zetterberg.

How exactly do you envision us getting better?

 

[Frk It]

The really bad teams are still going to draft high

I don't foresee the worse team consistently falling to fourth pick year over year

You realize that the 4th pick is the most likely scenario for the worst team, correct?

And not just by a little.

Here's the odds if you are the worst team:

1st- 18.0%
2nd- 16.0%
3rd- 14.1%
4th- 51.9%

So if you are the worst team in the league... You are about 3x more likley to draft 4th than you are to draft 1, 2, or 3.

What people need to understand is... what happened to Colorado wasn't an anomaly or aberration, it was the most likely scenario.

 

[Flowah]

Eh, you have a 48.1% chance of picking top3. It's a near coin flip between top3 and #4.

Consistently falling to 4th every year is unlikely given that you have a 48% chance of picking top3.

 

[njx9]

Neither do I, but how often is a draft even 3 deep in elite talents? There are a lot of years where there are arguably only one or none. Edmonton is held up as the poster child for bad management, inept drafting, etc., but the truth is that the majority of the drafts they picked high were really mediocre drafts. They got good players out of them, not always the best but good, but there weren't any McDavid or Matthews or Eichel level guys.

Exactly. As the worst team, you're more likely to end up with Pulujarvi than Laine or Matthews. You're more likely to end up with Strome or Marner than McDavid or Eichel. Not that the latter of those players aren't potentially great guys to end up with, but they're not the potential franchise changers the other two are.

I don't foresee the worse team consistently falling to fourth pick year over year

What people need to understand is... what happened to Colorado wasn't an anomaly or aberration, it was the most likely scenario.

As Frk It said, it may not happen every year, but it's significantly more likely that the worst team will miss on top end talent than that they'll overcome the odds and win the lottery. Additionally, I don't expect us to be the absolute bottom of the barrel, but I expect that means there will be a lot of years where we end up ~2 picks lower than we otherwise would've been because of lottery movement. And while there's a 'chance' we get lucky, the odds are, generally, against it.

likewise, a nudge into the other direction makes us a bubble team, as much as people around here want to be "the best" or nothing.... its much more probable, even following frk's rules, that we improve vs get worse.

On a team with very little in the way of top 6 Cs (if you want to call Larkin a 2C, I won't argue) and top 4 D, I find any claim that it's 'more probable' we improve a bit... err.. dubious.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I don't care what Holland's plan is. There's so much wrong and so little right with this team, a 1 year rebuild was never going to be anywhere close to any kinf of success story come April next year.

We'd need to catch lighting in a bottle ten times over just to sniff the playoffs. I predict reality will smack Holland solidly across the face when the TDL rolls around.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Not that their cap looks good, but I always think the "OMG the Wings are dead and going to be for a long time" is a little overblown. There are two seasons between now and 2020. By what everyone here is gunning for, it's a GOOD thing that the Wings are pretty much capped out until then. They can't overload the roster with veterans if they don't have any room.

You want them to be picking top 5?

And hell, with the history of the CBA, there won't be a 2020 season or they will give some sort of "get out of cap hit free" nonsense.

 

[Retire91]

Yeah the cap situation isn't bad for where the team is going to be near the bottom of the standings. As long as Holland manages this by letting bad contracts run out and not putting more on the books. Zetterberg some day is not going to contribute per his cap hit. Helm and Abby are hear to stay but. Their contracts are not crippling. Relying on Holland not to make things worse is dangerous part like a 6 year green deal or something like that.

 

[Pavels Dog]

We finished pretty close to the bottom this season. We're not going to be any better next season. Tatar and Nyquist aren't entering their prime. Zetterberg was incredible this season but I don't expect him to repeat that and definitely not to exceed it. Svech, Larkin, Mantha aren't enough to improve this team's standings next season.

It would take only a nudge to make us a true bottom feeder.

Right that's why I see no reason to deliberately blow the team up and completely miss out on that 0.0001% chance that the youngsters take massive steps and we greatly improve. If our kids suck, we'll get a top 10 pick with chance for top 3 even without massive tanking efforts and the "nudge" needed to guarantee a top 4 pick could even be made at the TDL.
It's just all about patience at this point.

 

[Heaton]

Right that's why I see no reason to deliberately blow the team up and completely miss out on that 0.0001% chance that the youngsters take massive steps and we greatly improve. If our kids suck, we'll get a top 10 pick with chance for top 3 even without massive tanking efforts and the "nudge" needed to guarantee a top 4 pick could even be made at the TDL.
It's just all about patience at this point.

It's about patience, but it's also about not compounding the issue by signing more veterans to long term bloated contracts.