The Free Agency/Trades Thread (Proposals, Speculation, Rumors) II

[Byrddog]

I like to use goals per game or assists per game or points per game to evaluate players. It takes in to account games played/missed.

The thing I don't get about Byrd's point here is, you take in to account how our guys look against the top 8 teams in the West but you have an entire league you should be basing your stats off of. The other thing is, the West is a stronger conference so that will skew the stats some as well.

Let's take this discussion to the complete absurdity that I like to do, what if you had 12 forwards that all scored 20 goals per season. None would be top 6 forwards by this account but you'd amass almost 3 goals per game. Would that be a bad thing? Completely unrealistic I know but just thought I'd throw that out there to make a point.

My point about the top 8 teams was to make a case that the teams atop the 8 either in the east or west tend to have wings better than Smith and Wilsons past performance. The performance of the 20 goal 40 point wingers are not going to be on those top teams unless you have a couple PPG forwards with them. Therefore the assertion someone made that Smith and Wilson are top 6 guys on any team is false. They could be top 6 one perhaps 60% of the teams out there. That does not mean they are useless players but they are not two that can be relied on night in night out.

Your point about 6 20 goal guys is the Trotzoanian nirvana they scoring by committee perfection and if someone was ever to achieve that they would be successful. Last year this team had 4 forwards that were 20 goal guys. in 2013 they had 3 forwards meet this plateau and in 2012 only 2. Made the playoffs last season missed the two prior. This has been an issue for the team for some time 07-08 there were 4 above 20 down from 6 in 06-07 which was the most productive year in goals the top 6 has had in 05-06 they had two 30 goal guys and 3 20 goal guys.

With all that said perhaps Neal and FF9 jump up to the 30 goal level I could see Fish hitting 20 this year and Smith and Wilson having 20 this would place them in the same position as 05-06 a team that exited in the 1st round. Theres just not enough Umphhhh to be that step better that we all look for and if FF9 and Neal fail to hit 30 the core remains the same. My hope is that Fiala and Moses and Hodgson step up to the point where at least two of them are on the second line If the 3rd line can not be improved the first two will be no better this season. They will draw the same defense matchups they did last year. The team was more productive last season with Lavi but a small margin but I think you will agree that we all expected more than a .14 gpg increase from Trotz to Lavi.

Tomorrow is the last day players can file for arbitration and Monday is the last day the team can file. Yet we have Smith, Wilson, Jarnkrok unsigned. Im not sure Jarnkrok will be here now and the QO's for the other two must be lower than they want. Im not sure what to think about how the lines will look now a few people have said they feel Poile has a trade ready and im starting to believe that. He has managed the cap well much better than I thought he would. So is he going to back down and give these 3 larger contracts than they deserve or is he going to make a multi player move to upgrade? It will be one of the two at this point theres really no UFA's out there right now that would make a big difference. Maybe some UFA's hit the market later or he pulls the trigger on something.

 

[NSH615]

My point about the top 8 teams was to make a case that the teams atop the 8 either in the east or west tend to have wings better than Smith and Wilsons past performance. The performance of the 20 goal 40 point wingers are not going to be on those top teams unless you have a couple PPG forwards with them. Therefore the assertion someone made that Smith and Wilson are top 6 guys on any team is false. They could be top 6 one perhaps 60% of the teams out there. That does not mean they are useless players but they are not two that can be relied on night in night out.

Your point about 6 20 goal guys is the Trotzoanian nirvana they scoring by committee perfection and if someone was ever to achieve that they would be successful. Last year this team had 4 forwards that were 20 goal guys. in 2013 they had 3 forwards meet this plateau and in 2012 only 2. Made the playoffs last season missed the two prior. This has been an issue for the team for some time 07-08 there were 4 above 20 down from 6 in 06-07 which was the most productive year in goals the top 6 has had in 05-06 they had two 30 goal guys and 3 20 goal guys.

With all that said perhaps Neal and FF9 jump up to the 30 goal level I could see Fish hitting 20 this year and Smith and Wilson having 20 this would place them in the same position as 05-06 a team that exited in the 1st round. Theres just not enough Umphhhh to be that step better that we all look for and if FF9 and Neal fail to hit 30 the core remains the same. My hope is that Fiala and Moses and Hodgson step up to the point where at least two of them are on the second line If the 3rd line can not be improved the first two will be no better this season. They will draw the same defense matchups they did last year. The team was more productive last season with Lavi but a small margin but I think you will agree that we all expected more than a .14 gpg increase from Trotz to Lavi.

Tomorrow is the last day players can file for arbitration and Monday is the last day the team can file. Yet we have Smith, Wilson, Jarnkrok unsigned. Im not sure Jarnkrok will be here now and the QO's for the other two must be lower than they want. Im not sure what to think about how the lines will look now a few people have said they feel Poile has a trade ready and im starting to believe that. He has managed the cap well much better than I thought he would. So is he going to back down and give these 3 larger contracts than they deserve or is he going to make a multi player move to upgrade? It will be one of the two at this point theres really no UFA's out there right now that would make a big difference. Maybe some UFA's hit the market later or he pulls the trigger on something.

What difference does it make if they are unsigned at this very moment. There are 135 RFA's that have not re-signed with their teams (per GeneralFanager). I guess all 135 are going to file for arbitration or sign offersheets. In regards to the QO's, they are good until the 15th (per Preds site). Also, Poile has every intent to bring Jarnkrok back, otherwise he a) would not have qo'd him, and b) would not have talked about him in the line-up in regards to how Hodgson would fit in.

We have 21M in cap space, but let us assume Poile lowballed every RFA and offered them league minimum and that's why they haven't signed (when 135 league wide haven't signed) and thus they will all sign offersheets elsewhere or take the club to arbitration.

 

[thecloser]

Well did you see how we were on the power play? Did you see that losing horquinst hurt pretty bad??? I mean yall think long term, and that's good but right is a good shot for us to win a cup. We were one huge injury away from putting Chicago out.

you are out of your mind. Jones is traded only for an elite player. i.e elite center. think Anze Kopitar...i doubt many preds fans object to jones for kopitar starter.

so basically what we are saying is that your proposal is ridiculous. even jones + wilson + prospect for hornqvist + prospect + picks is garbage. we can get so much more with our package. Re-evaluate your proposal is all i'm saying.

If we're moving jones it's for a #1C. End of story.

 

[Byrddog]

What difference does it make if they are unsigned at this very moment. There are 135 RFA's that have not re-signed with their teams (per GeneralFanager). I guess all 135 are going to file for arbitration or sign offersheets. In regards to the QO's, they are good until the 15th (per Preds site). Also, Poile has every intent to bring Jarnkrok back, otherwise he a) would not have qo'd him, and b) would not have talked about him in the line-up in regards to how Hodgson would fit in.

We have 21M in cap space, but let us assume Poile lowballed every RFA and offered them league minimum and that's why they haven't signed (when 135 league wide haven't signed) and thus they will all sign offersheets elsewhere or take the club to arbitration.

You are correct the QO drop dead date is the 15th then they become UFA's. Shake your head all you wish that does not provide proof that Smith or Wilson are worth more than 3 mil on this bridge and Jarnkrok no more than 1 mil. Just because theres cap room it does not mean it needs to be spent unwise. If I recall you remarked that both Wilson and Smith deserve 4 to 4.5 mil some time ago. What room does that leave for there UFA contract? If they both have 25 goals the next two seasons with over 50 points they become players that would want 6 mil per as a UFA. Do you think that is reasonable?

 

[NSH615]

You are correct the QO drop dead date is the 15th then they become UFA's.

They do not become UFA's, they are still RFA's just the QO offer is no longer valid and they must work a deal out with the team.

Shake your head all you wish that does not provide proof that Smith or Wilson are worth more than 3 mil on this bridge and Jarnkrok no more than 1 mil. Just because theres cap room it does not mean it needs to be spent unwise. If I recall you remarked that both Wilson and Smith deserve 4 to 4.5 mil some time ago.What room does that leave for there UFA contract?

I never said they deserved 4 to 4.5, just that I'd rather spend that extra 1M on them vs the Nystrom/Gaustad signings and I didn't see how it would kick us in the butt as you had said earlier.

If they both have 25 goals the next two seasons with over 50 points they become players that would want 6 mil per as a UFA. Do you think that is reasonable?

Depends on what the cap is. This is something you are not taking into account. The cap has gone up each of the past several years minus they lockout year which reset it for a year. As the cap rises, so will salaries given out each year it rises and there isn't much one can do about that. And if the cap continues to rise we are going to have to pay players more than they may be worth or more than they deserve just to reach the floor.

We still have Beck, Jarnkrok, Smith, and Wilson to sign and are currently 2.6M BELOW the floor. This for a team that has come out in the past few years and said that they are not a budget team anymore and can spend if they need to. While I understand we don't want to write blank checks to guys like some of the teams up north, it is not unreasonable to think that salaries would go up proportionately with the cap increases.

 

[MrJoshua]

Alright, so the question of whether Wilson and Smith are "legit" top-6 forwards has been brought up. Again. Let's examine that.

Wilson: 77 Games, 20 Goals, 22 Assists, 42 Points
Smith: 82 Games, 23 Goals, 21 Assists, 44 Points

So let's look at all the Western playoff teams and see where that would rank on those teams. (Forwards only - I'll be leaving off defenders like Keith who put up 45 points.)

Chicago Blackhawks
Toews: 81 Games, 28 Goals, 38 Assists, 66 Points
Kane: 61 Games, 27G, 37A, 64P
Hossa: 82 Games, 22G, 39A, 61P
Saad: 82 Games, 23G, 29A, 52P
Sharp: 68 Games, 16A, 27A, 43P
Richards: 76 Games, 12G, 25A, 37P

At least one of them would be top six. Probably both. They'd be third (tied) and sixth on the team among forwards for goals.

Anaheim Ducks
Getzlaf: 77GP, 25G, 45A, 70P
Perry: 67GP, 33G, 22A, 55P
Kesler: 81GP, 20G, 27A, 47P
Silfverberg: 81GP, 13G, 26A, 39P
Maroon: 71GP, 9G, 25A, 34P
Beleskey: 65GP, 22G, 10A, 32P

Still top six.

Calgary Flames
Hudler: 78GP, 31G, 45A, 76P
Gaudreau: 80GP, 24G, 40A, 64P
Monahan: 81GP, 31G, 31A, 62P
Bouma: 78GP, 16G, 18A, 34P
Jones: 67GP, 14G, 16A, 30P
Glencross: 53GP, 9G, 19A, 28P

Definitely in the top six here.

Minnesota Wild
Parise: 74GP, 33G, 29A, 62P
Pominville: 82GP, 18G, 36A, 54P
Vanek: 80GP, 21G, 31A, 52P
Koivu: 80GP, 14G, 34A, 48P
Granlund: 68GP, 8G, 31A, 39P
Niederreiter: 80GP, 24G, 13A, 37P

Yep. Top six. Second and fourth on the team in goals scored.

St. Louis Blues
Tarasenko: 77GP, 37G, 36A, 73P
Steen: 74GP, 24G, 40A, 64P
Schwartz: 75GP, 28G, 35A, 63P
Backes: 80GP, 26G, 32A, 58P
Oshie: 72GP, 19G, 36A, 55P
Stastny: 74GP, 16G, 30A, 46P

Now here finally is a team where you can legitimately claim that neither Smith nor Wilson would displace any of the existing top-six scoring forwards. But they'd still be fifth and sixth on the team in goals scored among forwards.

Vancouver Canucks
D. Sedin: 82GP, 20G, 56A, 76P
H. Sedin: 82GP, 18G, 55A, 73P
Vrbata: 79GP, 31G, 32A, 63P
Bonino: 75GP, 15G, 24A, 39P
Higgins: 77GP, 12G, 24A, 36P
Burrows: 70GP, 18G, 15A, 33P

Top six.

Winnipeg Jets
Ladd: 81GP, 24G, 38A, 62P
Wheeler: 79GP, 26G, 35A, 61P
Little: 70GP, 24G, 28A, 52P
Scheifele: 82GP, 15G, 34A, 49P
Frolik: 82GP, 19G, 23A, 42P
Perreault: 62GP, 18G, 23A, 41P

You could argue that only one of them would get a top-six spot on Winnipeg as well, but still they'd be fourth and fifth in goal-scoring among forwards on the team.

Would I love to see the team have so much scoring depth that they could push Smith and Wilson down to third-line duty? Absolutely, because it would mean they were LOADED offensively. But in the real world they're top six forwards. Ideally second liners, yes, but legitimate players nonetheless. You can argue about streakiness and whatever all you want, but when you look at the numbers the inescapable conclusions are that Smith has shown he is a consistent top six forward, and if Wilson can keep up last year's numbers he'll be one as well although he hasn't yet shown that he can do that every season.

 

[Mypetrobot]

Duplicate

 

[Mypetrobot]

What about an RFA trade.

Kadri for Wilson+

I only say plus on the preds side becuase kadri still has #1C potentional.

 

[PredsHabs]

Trade for JVR?

Move Wilson if need be?

 

[triggrman]

Awesome post MrJoshua

 

[bdub24]

Triggerman said it, but I want to second it. Great POV on our top 6. Definitely calls out how we need to get true number 1s, but Neal and Forsberg will have another year of gelling in training camp, so I would say there is reason to be optimistic on that front for sure.

 

[Drake744]

I wonder what it would realistically take to get Couture out of San Jose. I don't really care a ton about what their fans might say because fans tend to overvalue guys. I can't help but wonder what Sharks management would consider an acceptable return from us. I don't really know much about their needs and the direction they're going.

Also, great post MrJoshua.

 

[PredsV82]

I would love to have Coture, but if San Jose is rebuilding, hes the guy they would likely build around. I would think the Sharks would be much more likely to try to dump Thornton. I suspect the answer to "what would it take to get Coture?" is probably the same as the question "what would it take to get Josi?" (ie, nothing, they arent for sale)

 

[Infinite Jest]

I wonder what it would realistically take to get Couture out of San Jose. I don't really care a ton about what their fans might say because fans tend to overvalue guys. I can't help but wonder what Sharks management would consider an acceptable return from us. I don't really know much about their needs and the direction they're going.

Also, great post MrJoshua.

For Couture it would take Jones I'm sure and I'd be okay with that personally. He plays the toughest minutes of all Sharks forwards and still produces offensively. He'd be a great get.

 

[thecloser]

Wilson, Smith and Beck all filed for arbitration. just wanted to let you guys know.

 

[NSH615]

Wilson, Smith and Beck all filed for arbitration. just wanted to let you guys know.

I saw the Wilson and Smith coming. Beck has no reason to file. He did nothing this year other than his Toronto game. Poile should not have even QO'd him.

 

[thecloser]

I saw the Wilson and Smith coming. Beck has no reason to file. He did nothing this year other than his Toronto game. Poile should not have even QO'd him.

agreed. Smith and Wilson will probably be around 4.5 per and Beck, what is he expecting to get? Hopefully we'll just say no thanks to what the judge rules and let him walk.

 

[NSH615]

I saw the Wilson and Smith coming. Beck has no reason to file. He did nothing this year other than his Toronto game. Poile should not have even QO'd him.

And I should also note regarding this, we have 3 which is the most and tied with Arizona for the most. This shows that Poile is out there lowballing his offers this year.

 

[NSH615]

Re QO's



And if anyone was asking about Jarnkrok, he was not eligible for arbitration.

 

[PredsV82]

filing for arbitration just strengthens the players hand a bit to force the GM to get a contract done by early august. Unless they are dramatically far apart in what they are asking for, I see them all getting signed before a hearing.

 

[bdub24]

I would have thought Wilson and Smith were both worth more than what we offered according to that report. beck seems about right...

 

[PredsV82]

I would have thought Wilson and Smith were both worth more than what we offered according to that report. beck seems about right...

thats not what we are offering in arbitration, thats just the qualifying offer(i.e. the amount that had to be offered to retain the players rights)

 

[bdub24]

Ah! Got it. Thanks very much.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

And I should also note regarding this, we have 3 which is the most and tied with Arizona for the most. This shows that Poile is out there lowballing his offers this year.

Don't mind this at all. While we want both Wilson and Smith back, we don't want to overpay them, nor have they shown enough to warrant giving them substantial raises over longer terms. Poile needs to handle these two contracts carefully, IMO.

 

[Mypetrobot]

Don't mind this at all. While we want both Wilson and Smith back, we don't want to overpay them, nor have they shown enough to warrant giving them substantial raises over longer terms. Poile needs to handle these two contracts carefully, IMO.

Eh.

I understand why he did it, but I don't like it.

If they are performing to top 6 standards then at least offer them low top 6 player salary.

2, 2.5 mil is a joke of an offer. Even as RFA's go.

I see Tyler toffoli contract as a basis. 2 year 3.25 mil AAV

I see a 2 year bridge over a Saad like deal.