The (Faint) Hope Thread: Recent Playoff Chase History

[Fourier]

What concerns me is after 4 wins in 5 games we still have not move up in the standings

But they are closing ground. As of the 11th they were 9 points back of the Sharks, 8 behind the Flames, 7 behind the Ducks and 6 behind the Canucks. Now the gap is 1 point behind the Canucks with a game in hand, 4 behind the Ducks with a game in hand, 5 behind the Flames and 6 behind the Sharks. The key is that they play all these teams a lot going forward so they may still hold their destiny in their own hands.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

What concerns me is after 4 wins in 5 games we still have not move up in the standings

Yup. They need to go on a lengthy winning streak and that's why every game is so key. They can't afford to lose points when the teams ahead of them are still acquiring them.

 

[GameChanger]

If they keep the current level and manage to fix the PP (and PK) issues there's a good chance they'll make the playoffs. It won't be easy, but it's definitely possible now.

 

[fuswald]

Id be happy if they could get 3 in a row once at least

There ya go three in a row

 

[McBigYak]

If they can take down Montreal and head into the Xmas break .500 then I will start to have hope. Especially if we got Klefbom back and generally healthy. Keep in mind even if we go into the break 17-17-2 we still probably have to win more than 60% of our remaining games. Not going to be easy at all. We are going to have to clean house against the Pacific

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

What concerns me is after 4 wins in 5 games we still have not move up in the standings

better than losing ground

 

[bucks_oil]

Feeling better after last night... that was a game we lose earlier in the season and spend the whole next day talking about 5 goalposts. Even Caggiula flubbed his shot which actually caused the goal... GOOD... WE DESERVE IT.

Keep at it boys, your luck is changing (you've been making your own luck, outshooting and outhitting for over a month... and luck has finally decided it can't ignore you anymore)

 

[hokeyfan]

Amen

 

[Todd from Leduc]

This is the Cinderella underdawg team I was hoping for!!

Despite all the odds being stacked against us including the screwjob reffing, unfair schedule, worst injuries in the league and flu/IBS sweeping through the entire dressing room including our star player for 25 games... the boys still persevered and are rapidly making ground up the standings!

Conflict builds character but crisis defines it and that's what these boys are showing right now with this win streak. With the way they are playing and the confidence they are showing I could see them turn this into a 10 or 15 game win streak in a row at the very least 18/20 points in their next 10.

Hey Rogers Place, don't be booking any concerts in June.

 

[McBigYak]

This is the Cinderella underdawg team I was hoping for!!

Despite all the odds being stacked against us including the screwjob reffing, unfair schedule, worst injuries in the league and flu/IBS sweeping through the entire dressing room including our star player for 25 games... the boys still persevered and are rapidly making ground up the standings!

Conflict builds character but crisis defines it and that's what these boys are showing right now with this win streak. With the way they are playing and the confidence they are showing I could see them turn this into a 10 or 15 game win streak in a row at the very least 18/20 points in their next 10.

Hey Rogers Place, don't be booking any concerts in June.

I really think this is extremely over exaggerated. The reffing is bad league wide. Every single team deals with it including us.

 

[bucks_oil]

I really think this is extremely over exaggerated. The reffing is bad league wide. Every single team deals with it including us.

Agree...

I also didn't understand the "scheduling" comment. I mean seeing StLouis after Calgary in a back2back should be considered a GOOD thing. Yet was it given yesterday as evidence of anti-Oiler conspiracy ??? Maybe I missed something.

 

[bone]

Agree mostly, but I think the schedule hasn't been overly friendly. They had a real tough stretch from Nov. 7 to Dec. 16, playing 20 games in 39 days. 14 of which were on the road, and 2 of the 6 home games were singles, making them virtual road games in that they only stayed in town for maybe 2 nights each time. The other 4 home games were also 2 games each with no break on either side of them.

They did a big part of that while battling a flu. So they are very fortunate to have survived that stretch going 10-9-1. Schedule lightens up a bit post Christmas, hopefully they use it to gain some ground.

 

[NeverForget06]

We're coming up on a very important stretch of games against some tough opponents, but realistically, if this team is going to go anywhere they need to be better than the Jets, Hawks, Kings etc anyways.

If we keep up the way we have been playing I still think we have a shot.

 

[Yablo21]

Shred of Hope Post - chances are slim of making the playoffs, (but I'm an eternal optimist to my own demise)

Last season at 32 games the Oilers had a record of 15-12-5 (35pts) the finished with a record of 47-26-9 (103pts)
In their last 50 games they finished with a record of 32-14-4 (68pts)

This season they have 28pts
If they can go on a similar run (28pts + 68pts) they could finish with 96pts, likely good enough to make the playoffs.

There you have it folks, something to hold on to..
Is this team worse then last years team? Maybe, but the jury is still out on that one based on their play the last 3 weeks which has been much better despite the results.

Now with 3 wins in a row! In order for Oilers to maintain their same pace from their run at end of last season they need to go 29-14-4

So essentially for Oilers to make the playoffs they cannot accrue more then 16 losses (with 1 loss = 2OT losses) of over the next 47 games.

Still a big feat but doable if they continue to play this way the rest of the year.

 

[BudBundy]

Somewhat remarkably, 5 of the 7 teams the Oilers are chasing for the wildcard spot have won 3 or 4 games in their last ten to coincide with the Oilers being on something of a roll. A win tonight would take them within 5 points. Hope is actually alive, though still faint.

 

[SK13]

I'm having a good year for predictions, so I'll throw out some more positive ones.

Oilers are 4 points back. They have 10 games before their CBA mandated 5 day break. They get 14 points out of those 10 games and are tied for the 2nd wildcard spot on January 13 (if only momentarily).

 

[SomeDudeOTI]

4 game streak, Sek and Talbs looking good, 4 back

 

[oilers'72]

Several teams ahead of us still have plenty of games against the Eastern Conference. If the East is as tough as people claim, then some of them might drop back in the pack.

 

[Aerchon]

A couple things.

The playoffs are still a long ways off. Both in terms of the standings but also in terms of games left.

They have done three things that are very positive tho.

Playing good to great 8 games/4 game winning streak.

Getting healthier.

Got to 500 hockey.

They have the hardest parts still ahead and it will be extremely difficult/unlikely. However they have made incredible progress, there is lots of time, the Pacific is a weaker division, they primarily play the pacific/west, they are currently only 4 points out of a playoff spot.

That last one is actually very surprising. 4 points out with 46 games to go? That is amazing after how bad a start they had and also seems low for being so close and only having a 500 record. The West and Pacific has been so clumped together.

Lots to like under bad circumstances but a long ways to go.

 

[PeanutButterPoti]

It'll be a long battle. If the playoffs happen, it won't be without a good share of downs, rivals getting hot, and a losing streak or two. Those are yet to come. The fact that at this point we're looking like we did last spring, and we're only 4 points out now (compared to last week when we were around 9)...things are looking good.

 

[HallOfGreatness4]

I notice every night we are heavy favorites against some very good teams. We still absolutely have the respect of the oddsmakers if you believe in that type of thing.

 

[Jeff Lebowski]

The next 11 games are against the west.
Perfect timing for this team to get rolling. I think that we'll be firmly in a playoff spot by the end of January.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Still in the hunt, but this team really could use a stretch like the VGK are having...9-0-1 in their last 10.

It looks like 4 teams fighting for the 3rd spot in the Pacific (SJ, CGY, ANA and EDM) and and additional 4 teams from the Central fighting for the 2 Wild Card spots.

The Oilers next 8 are against the teams they're fighting with for a spot. They probably need to go no worse than 6-2 in these games (without giving up the Bettman point). That's just to stay in the mix. They only have 10 games in January - and need to have a great month.

Dec 31 WPG
Jan 2 LAK
Jan 4 ANA
Jan 6 @DAL
Jan 7 @CHI
Jan 9 @NSH
Jan 12 @Ari
Jan 13 @VGK
Mandatory Break
Jan 20 VAN
Jan 23 BUF
Jan 25 CGY

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

It's over folks.

Teams don't make the playoffs when they lose more than (at most in recent years) 33 games in a season.

Calgary lost 33 in 2016-17
Minnesota lost 33 in 2015-16 (and made the playoffs with 87 points - which isn't happening this season)
Calgary lost 30 games in 2014-15
Columbus lost 32 in 2013-14
Lockout in 2012-2013
Washington lost 32 games in 2011-12 (the last season before reconfiguration of divisions)

And with that, teams losing that much need to have a lot of wins and few SO/OT losses.

This is not a club that's going to go 25-7-2 in their final 34 games (that would yield 97 points - which might not be enough to make the playoffs this season)

The Oilers have squandered the season. We're now beyond miracle territory. We're left with the reality that this is a poor hockey club.

 

[LaGu]

Just to have a look what is coming up ahead and to bring this thread back to life, even if only momentarily...

17 games left vs Pacific
Oilers vs Pacific so far in 17/18: 12 GP 10 W 2 L
Expected results: 17 GP 13 W 3 L 1 OTL

6 games left vs Central
Oilers vs Central so far in 17/18: 15 GP 4 W 10 L 1 OTL
... but, 5 of the remaining games vs Central are against COL and MIN, we have not yet faced COL this season (3 W in 3 GP 16/17) and MIN is the only team in Central vs which we have a winning record (1 GP 1 W)
Expected results: 5 GP vs MIN/COL 4 W 1 OTL, 1 GP against the rest (NSH): 1 L

10 games left vs East
Oilers vs East so far in 17/18: 22 GP 8 W 12 L 2 OTL
Break down of remaining games:
2 games vs TBL 2 L
2 games vs FLA 2 W
3 games vs BOS/NYI/COL 3 W
3 games vs CAR/OTT/NYR 3 L
The results vs TBL and FLA are not based on anything else than that TBL is a good team and FLA is a bad team. The other results are based exactly on the record we already have against these team in 17/18.


To sum up these results, which I don't really see as that unreasonable (since they are to a large extent based on the results we already have had this crappy season):
33 GP 22 W 9 L 2 OTL for 46 pts which would mean 93 pts at the end of the season, but with most wins against the West it could very well be enough to squeeze in.

It would be good to see them fare a bit better than 0.500 against the East, that would make things a bit easier for a potential run.