The (Faint) Hope Thread: Recent Playoff Chase History

[McGenerational]

Looking back through the years, the Oilers (and their fans) have some precedents to look at to fuel hopes of a "miracle" run to the playoffs.

That being said, the list is a short one.

After a 10-14-2 start through October and November, if the Oilers make the playoffs this season the feat would be essentially equal to that of the 2007-2008 Flames (10-13-3 start), 2010-2011 Sabers (9-13-3 start), and 2013-2014 Blue Jackets (10-14-3 start).

The only club with a markedly worse start in the Cap Era was the 2007-2008 Capitals (8-16-2 start). There are some other examples of sub-.500 clubs through the end of November that clawed their way to the playoffs albeit with records around one games below the .500 mark. In 2007-2008, per the above, the Flames and Caps both made it. Never in the Cap Era have three teams had sub-.500 starts and made it. There have also been seasons when no such team managed to get there at all.

In each of 2008-2009, 2009-2010, 2011-2012 and 2014-2015 there wasn't a single team that had a sub-.500 start through the end of November that made the playoffs.

The Habs are on a bit of a roll now, but they were exactly .500 through the end of November (12-12-3). Detroit, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Florida and Edmonton are all possible playoff contenders with sub-.500 records through the first two months of the season (let's go ahead and write off Arizona).

If you were going to predict which of these above teams could pull it off, you'd probably go with the teams that made the playoffs last year: Ottawa and Edmonton. Both have fairly similar rosters to last season. Both have starting goalies having terrible beginnings but solid historical stats. The Oilers are probably the only team in the West that had a sub-.500 start with a real chance to get back into it (due in part to many other teams having .500 or better records).

So...
Hope springs eternal?
Wishful thinking?
Realistic chance based on historical precedent?

All this does is give me hope.
Three teams did it in the last few years and none of those teams had Connor McDavid.
Hell, none of those teams even had a #1C. We have two elite ones.

I haven't looked closely at the scheddy but is there an opportunity coming up for us to get hot and go on a roll?

 

[McCombo]

All this does is give me hope.
Three teams did it in the last few years and none of those teams had Connor McDavid.
Hell, none of those teams even had a #1C. We have two elite ones.

I haven't looked closely at the scheddy but is there an opportunity coming up for us to get hot and go on a roll?

Not really...

Between now and New Years:

@ Montreal
@ Toronto
@ Columbus
Nashville
@ Minny
SJS
St. Louis
Montreal
@ Winnipeg
Chicago
Winnipeg

Those teams are a combined 49 games over 0.500 pts%, and not a single one is below 0.500. 5 of them are the top 5 teams overall.

Scrantonicity 2 posted that on the first page.

 

[McGenerational]

Not really...

Between now and New Years:

@ Montreal
@ Toronto
@ Columbus
Nashville
@ Minny
SJS
St. Louis
Montreal
@ Winnipeg
Chicago
Winnipeg

Those teams are a combined 49 games over 0.500 pts%, and not a single one is below 0.500. 5 of them are the top 5 teams overall.

Scrantonicity 2 posted that on the first page.

I think the bolded are games we can and should win. 16/22 points isn't bad.
It sucks that most of them are in the East, though.
We REALLY need to rack up some divisional wins.

 

[McCombo]

I think the bolded are games we can and should win. 16/22 points isn't bad.
It sucks that most of them are in the East, though.
We REALLY need to rack up some divisional wins.

That would be quite a turnaround when the team is without Larsson, Sekera and Talbot many of these games. I am expecting a turnaround, but with the current injuries and this schedule I feel it won't start this calendar year.

 

[McDrai]

I think the bolded are games we can and should win. 16/22 points isn't bad.
It sucks that most of them are in the East, though.
We REALLY need to rack up some divisional wins.

I agree, except Toronto. I would be shocked if we beat them as they have dominated us for years

 

[McGenerational]

That would be quite a turnaround when the team is without Larsson, Sekera and Talbot many of these games. I am expecting a turnaround, but with the current injuries and this schedule I feel it won't start this calendar year.

Maybe, but even though all those teams have good records, they're not world beaters.
When are Larsson, Talbot and Sekera scheduled to come back?

I agree, except Toronto. I would be shocked if we beat them as they have dominated us for years

That's the win I want most...

 

[frag2]

All this does is give me hope.
Three teams did it in the last few years and none of those teams had Connor McDavid.
Hell, none of those teams even had a #1C. We have two elite ones.

I haven't looked closely at the scheddy but is there an opportunity coming up for us to get hot and go on a roll?

downhill?

I agree, except Toronto. I would be shocked if we beat them as they have dominated us for years

well we almost couldve beaten them this past week...almost...

 

[McBigYak]

The only difference is those teams who made the miracle runs actually put an effort in on the ice, and still mostly came up short. This team is an embarrassment effort wise and it's just going to get covered up as an "injury riddled" season when there is clearly so much more wrong.

This team is roasted. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just setting themselves up for dissapointment.

We have barely even played 2 good games in a row, and just to get back into the playoff conversation they have to win 10 in a row. It's over, I'd bet a significant amount of money on it.

 

[Porkleaker]

The only difference is those teams who made the miracle runs actually put an effort in on the ice, and still mostly came up short. This team is an embarrassment effort wise and it's just going to get covered up as an "injury riddled" season when there is clearly so much more wrong.

This team is roasted. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just setting themselves up for dissapointment.

We have barely even played 2 good games in a row, and just to get back into the playoff conversation they have to win 10 in a row. It's over, I'd bet a significant amount of money on it.

This, I called the season over weeks ago already. Now with the injuries and same lack of effort they're suddenly going to turn it around?

 

[BlackDogg]

A trade would need to be made, if nothing else to stir them mentally. Since nothing is being done, one can assume they are writing off the season. They need to finish lower now, not higher.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The only difference is those teams who made the miracle runs actually put an effort in on the ice, and still mostly came up short. This team is an embarrassment effort wise and it's just going to get covered up as an "injury riddled" season when there is clearly so much more wrong.

This team is roasted. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just setting themselves up for dissapointment.

We have barely even played 2 good games in a row, and just to get back into the playoff conversation they have to win 10 in a row. It's over, I'd bet a significant amount of money on it.

It's quite annoying that every time the Oilers come up with a big win that they earned they immediately follow it up with a putrid effort. This team is done like dinner and Chia should be looking to acquire assets while shedding salary and contracts.

 

[McGenerational]

The only difference is those teams who made the miracle runs actually put an effort in on the ice, and still mostly came up short. This team is an embarrassment effort wise and it's just going to get covered up as an "injury riddled" season when there is clearly so much more wrong.

This team is roasted. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just setting themselves up for dissapointment.

We have barely even played 2 good games in a row, and just to get back into the playoff conversation they have to win 10 in a row. It's over, I'd bet a significant amount of money on it.

Kinda comes with being a Oilers fan

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

It's entirely possible, but not the way we are playing.

This whole 1 step forward, 2 steps back is completely disheartening to watch.

We thought we had built an identity by the end of last season at least.
And now we don't know which team to expect on any given night.

We play to the pace of other teams, let them dictate the style of play, because seemingly, we don't know what we are.

Keep thinking the next good effort is a turned corner, or the next bad loss is a wake up call.
But the inconsistency is a sign of team not put together well. Mentally, or on paper.

It's sad really. The rhetoric from players is that they know what they're capable of, can handle the expectations and then the have trouble stringing together 2 good efforts in a row let alone play to their full potential on any night. Nobody has been good enough.

Mathematically, and with a lot of divisional games outstanding, we have a chance.
But expecting a switch to just flip here is probably a little naive on my part.

 

[Digger12]

Maybe not completely relevant to this thread, but I found it kinda funny and I needed somewhere to put it.

Time is wasting for Oilers, the NHL's most disappointing team

McDavid: “It’s a long way from over, it’s still early December, there’s a lot of hockey left and a lot of divisional hockey left. Nobody’s going to roll over in here"

Then barely a paragraph later, Letestu chimes in.

Letestu: “At this point, if you’re thinking there’s still a lot of time (left), you’re being pretty naive"

Just another example of how not every player in that room has the same level of desperation it would seem. It's too bad when Letestu said that, nobody from the media asked him his take on his captain's assertion that "It's a long way from over". It would've been interesting to see how that would've gone.

 

[McBigYak]

Maybe not completely relevant to this thread, but I found it kinda funny and I needed somewhere to put it.

Time is wasting for Oilers, the NHL's most disappointing team

McDavid: “It’s a long way from over, it’s still early December, there’s a lot of hockey left and a lot of divisional hockey left. Nobody’s going to roll over in here"

Then barely a paragraph later, Letestu chimes in.

Letestu: “At this point, if you’re thinking there’s still a lot of time (left), you’re being pretty naive"

Just another example of how not every player in that room has the same level of desperation it would seem. It's too bad when Letestu said that, nobody from the media asked him his take on his captain's assertion that "It's a long way from over". It would've been interesting to see how that would've gone.

Letestu speaking like a veteran and McDavid speaking like a young player entering the league.

If you're saying Letestu isn't acting desperate, I think you're reading that wrong. He's essentially saying there isn't any time left. It's now or its over.

But yeah I really would have liked to hear his reaction to that too. It's kind of amazing that McDavid would say something like that. They've already rolled over. They rolled over after the season opener Calgary game. How can you play like this and actually go to the media and pretend like this team has some sort of pride.

 

[Digger12]

Letestu speaking like a veteran and McDavid speaking like a young player entering the league.

If you're saying Letestu isn't acting desperate, I think you're reading that wrong. He's essentially saying there isn't any time left. It's now or its over.

But yeah I really would have liked to hear his reaction to that too. It's kind of amazing that McDavid would say something like that. They've already rolled over. They rolled over after the season opener Calgary game. How can you play like this and actually go to the media and pretend like this team has some sort of pride.

No, I completely read that as Letestu being the one with the desperate tone, I watched the segment where McDavid says that quote and he looked like he was on autopilot, all monotone and robotic. Maybe it's just that he's all messed up with dealing with multiple bouts of the flu, who knows.

 

[Senor Catface]

The only way I can look at it the standings and not just f*** it is by taking it one team at time. I don't think we'll make the playoffs at this point, but I still need to make this year entertaining somehow.

Right now I look at it as us versus Colorado.

Once we pass them (we will) I'll start making it about Edmonton versus whatever team is right above us.

So every time Colorado loses lately, I'm pretty happy.

So good news! We're only 2 points behind... :|

 

[McBigYak]

The only way I can look at it the standings and not just **** it is by taking it one team at time. I don't think we'll make the playoffs at this point, but I still need to make this year entertaining somehow.

Right now I look at it as us versus Colorado.

Once we pass them (we will) I'll start making it about Edmonton versus whatever team is right above us.

So every time Colorado loses lately, I'm pretty happy.

So good news! We're only 2 points behind... :|

I said f*** it after that Philly game. No more 3 hour dedication from me. I've got much more productive things I can be doing like growing my business and watching paint dry.

 

[Senor Catface]

I said **** it after that Philly game. No more 3 hour dedication from me. I've got much more productive things I can be doing growing my business and watching paint dry.

Yeah, I'm with you on that. That loss was such a "oh f*** this" feeling.

Thank god for other hobbies.

 

[McBigYak]

Yeah, I'm with you on that. That loss was such a "oh **** this" feeling.

Thank god for other hobbies.

Yeah, I get bashed on a lot for being a fair weather fan. The losses stress me out to the point where I lose sleep over it. Just not healthy for me haha.

Kudos to the guys who actually stick with this team thick or thin and watch all the games. When there is no purpose to something, I'm not gonna dedicate 3 hours of my life every other night to it.

They are toast. It sucks, but what can ya do. The one issue I see is the Oilers will chalk this up as an injury plagued season and not do much when in reality this team is so broken.

 

[trick91]

we basically have to sweep all the pacific matches and win most of the west games. can't see it happening.

 

[guymez]

They have so many games against teams they are chasing that I think it's possible.

This.

There are 2 things that work in their favor this season. The first is that the Pacific Division is a weak division this year. The 2nd is that the bulk of their games in the latter part of the season are against Pacific division teams.

If these things weren't a reality then this team would be in too big of a hole to climb out of IMO.

The kicker is injuries and maintaining a .500 record over the next week. They need to get some key players back quickly.
If they get Larsson, Talbot and Sekera back in the next week then their lineup gets a huge shot in the arm.

That said they still need to sort out this leadership issue in short order.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

They have so many games against teams they are chasing that I think it's possible.

That's because they're chasing so many teams...

 

[guymez]

That's because they're chasing so many teams...

They haven't played the Pacific much at all yet this season. That matters.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

They haven't played the Pacific much at all yet this season. That matters.

That's what scares me. This team wouldn't stand a chance against the Kings.