The fact the Jets have the highest point percentage in the Central while having no players that are PPG is scary

[Romang67]

I'm not moving goal posts at all. You're the one trying to cherry pick sample sizes.

I'm saying he's every bit as good as the great Hellebuyck, and I personally would take him to steal me a series as opposed to Hellebuyck (who wouldn't be very far down the list to be fair)

What sample sizes am I trying to cherry pick? You said "if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have," so I asked you how he performed in the playoffs last year, which includes 3 of his 4 playoffs series.

If we want to expand the sample size to avoid cherry picking sample sizes, we can look at how he has performed in the regular season this year.

 

[2for1PizzaPastuh]

Edmonton McDavids. Two can play this game.

don't be salty lol Helle is unreal, super great for the Jets to have him. not as great as Edmonton getting McDavid of course but still amazing

 

[JKG33]

What sample sizes am I trying to cherry pick? You said "if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have," so I asked you how he performed in the playoffs last year, which includes 3 of his 4 playoffs series.

If we want to expand the sample size to avoid cherry picking sample sizes, we can look at how he has performed in the regular season this year.

You're cherry picking one playoff run where he wasn't as good and ignoring the one where he was great. I'm the one trying to include the whole set.

Regular season is relatively meaningless when our conversation is about playoffs. Two completely different types of games.

I don't know, without doing a real deep analysis, I think LA was pretty mediocre all the way through the 2011/12 season. First 2/3 = 27-18-10 record (0.582 pt%) vs. last 1/3 = 13-9-5 (0.574 pt%).

Anyway, it doesn't matter that much. At the end of the day, the Playoffs is basically a tournament and the best team doesn't always win. A lot of things have to go your way and the better teams have the better chances of that happening, but you are basically looking to get on a hot streak at that right time.

The way the team looked when Sutter came in as a coach, and after they traded for Carter.. they had a swagger to them. By no means did I expect them to win the cup but they certainly weren't a typical Cinderella 8th seed, especially backed by the best goalie in the league.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I had a lot to write about... but I deleted it all.


Vegas Knights didn't have any player PPG last season either, and they won the cup.

 

[cneely]

Thats good for them. But all of those players are well below McDavid, Draisaitl, Petersson, Miller, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Eichel, Stone, Hughes, Makar, Toews, Pietrangelo, Theodore. That's an elite group and being below them isn't an insult at all. But those are the horses on playoff competitors, and all of those teams with the exception of Edmonton have comparable depth too.

What makes Jack Eichel better than Scheifele? Toews, Pietro and Theo better than Morrissey?

 

[JKG33]

What makes Jack Eichel better than Scheifele? Toews, Pietro and Theo better than Morrissey?

The D men you have an argument for sure. But I don't think you'll find too many people taking Scheifele over Eichel

 

[Romang67]

You're cherry picking one playoff run where he wasn't as good and ignoring the one where he was great. I'm the one trying to include the whole set.

Regular season is relatively meaningless when our conversation is about playoffs. Two completely different types of games.

Let me reiterate.

Here is what you said:

"if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have"

The last few years is two years. I think we can safely ignore his 8 saves in 2020. One of those two years wasn't particularly good. It was one good series (.929 sv%) followed by two bad series (.877 and .877 sv%).

I'm questioning this labeling of Oettinger as some playoff warrior who always shows up, when it mostly comes down to 7 excellent games in his first playoff series.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The Carolina guy dumping on the Jets because we are a defense only/Hellysaveus team. Yes we are the best defensive team in the league but for the love of god the only thing that separates us in terms of scoring with Carolina is around 20 goals which is probably due to the fact are powerplay sucked to start the season and we didn't score much on it.

Give your head a shake we are good and yes our goalies(Brossoit has been lights out too) are part of that too.

We still have to get through Dallas, Colorado and the Preds so we know it won't be easy but we have the depth, size, skill to give any team a headache

I’m not “dumping on them”, I’m just questioning the idea that there’s this crazy offensive upside waiting to break out.

Go down the lineup, the core players are doing what they typically do, or even slightly better in some cases. The biggest upside on the table is that they’ve added a couple of middle-six scorers, so that will nudge them forward from what they were a month ago.

Yes, it’s a team built very much like Carolina and I’m here to tell you, the “depth without elite stars” build will only get you so far in a playoff environment. Even with a superstar goalie, which makes a huge difference in offsetting team weaknesses, it’s still really damn hard to stay on the plus side of the scoreboard for two months straight when the game tightens up and one shot decides a series. Teams built like this need someone to absolutely blow up a la Gaborik’s 2014 playoffs. It’s always theoretically possible that someone could do that out of nowhere, but why would we expect it from this Jets team specifically?

None of this is shitting on the Jets, it’s just a third-party view of what’s on that roster in context of a Bowness-coached team and the reality of playoff hockey. The main board is not an echo chamber of positive feedback… if someone starts a thread here talking about how a team has “scary” upside, it’s fully I n-bounds to point out that they’re not actually all that scary compared to the teams they’ll be facing a month from now.

 

[JKG33]

Let me reiterate.

Here is what you said:

"if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have"

The last few years is two years. I think we can safely ignore his 8 saves in 2020. One of those two years wasn't particularly good. It was one good series (.929 sv%) followed by two bad series (.877 and .877 sv%).

I'm questioning this labeling of Oettinger as some playoff warrior who always shows up, when it mostly comes down to 7 excellent games in his first playoff series.

I'm not sure what your argument is or what i'm supposed to say. If you take any players good games out of a sample size, and leave only their bad games, the player isn't going to look good.

 

[cneely]

The D men you have an argument for sure. But I don't think you'll find too many people taking Scheifele over Eichel

Since 2020/21, Eichel has 161 points in 171 games for 0.94 PPG
Scheifele has 263 in 265 for 0.99

Eichel makes $10 million, Scheifele makes $8.5. The only reason someone would prefer Eichel right now is his age, and that has little impact on this playoff season.

 

[Romang67]

I'm not sure what your argument is or what i'm supposed to say. If you take any players good games out of a sample size, and leave only their bad games, the player isn't going to look good.

It's probably because what you said didn't make any sense.

You implied that Oettinger shows up in the playoffs year after year, or at least that's how I read the statement: "if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have."

Oettinger has played in the playoffs two years. Did I misunderstand what you meant with "the last few years," when you actually meant "if he shows up in the playoffs like he did in the playoff series against the Flames in 2022"? Because that's the only year he has showed up and performed well in the playoffs.

 

[cneely]

I’m not “dumping on them”, I’m just questioning the idea that there’s this crazy offensive upside waiting to break out.

Go down the lineup, the core players are doing what they typically do, or even slightly better in some cases. The biggest upside on the table is that they’ve added a couple of middle-six scorers, so that will nudge them forward from what they were a month ago.

Yes, it’s a team built very much like Carolina and I’m here to tell you, the “depth without elite stars” build will only get you so far in a playoff environment. Even with a superstar goalie, which makes a huge difference in offsetting team weaknesses, it’s still really damn hard to stay on the plus side of the scoreboard for two months straight when the game tightens up and one shot decides a series. Teams built like this need someone to absolutely blow up a la Gaborik’s 2014 playoffs. It’s always theoretically possible that someone could do that out of nowhere, but why would we expect it from this Jets team specifically?

None of this is shitting on the Jets, it’s just a third-party view of what’s on that roster in context of a Bowness-coached team and the reality of playoff hockey. The main board is not an echo chamber of positive feedback… if someone starts a thread here talking about how a team has “scary” upside, it’s fully I n-bounds to point out that they’re not actually all that scary compared to the teams they’ll be facing a month from now.

I would argue that injuries to Villardi and Connor as well as regression from Perfetti have made the Jets offence not near as potent as it could be. Add 2 30 goal scorers and a healthy Villardi and that's a deep lineup. Perfetti has 31 points and is very likely going to be the odd man out of that lineup.

The Canes are actually a really good comparison for the Jets. Except they have never had a Hellebuyck.

I'm not sure what your argument is or what i'm supposed to say. If you take any players good games out of a sample size, and leave only their bad games, the player isn't going to look good.

So include the good ones. Oettinger has a career .911 Sv% in the playoffs. You'd rather have that than Hellebuyck's 0.917?

 

[JKG33]

Since 2020/21, Eichel has 161 points in 171 games for 0.94 PPG
Scheifele has 263 in 265 for 0.99

Eichel makes $10 million, Scheifele makes $8.5. The only reason someone would prefer Eichel right now is his age, and that has little impact on this playoff season.

Jack Eichel playoffs: 26 points in 22 games
Mark Scheifele playoffs: 32 points in 37 games

It's probably because what you said didn't make any sense.

You implied that Oettinger shows up in the playoffs year after year, or at least that's how I read the statement: "if he shows up in the playoffs like he has the last few years there's no goalie I'd rather have."

Oettinger has played in the playoffs two years. Did I misunderstand what you meant with "the last few years," when you actually meant "if he shows up in the playoffs like he did in the playoff series against the Flames in 2022"? Because that's the only year he has showed up and performed well in the playoffs.

He had a few bad games in last years playoff that dragged his stats down. And even with those bad games, still identical to Hellebuyck.

Even Quick wasn't immune to that during the Kings dominant runs.

So include the good ones. Oettinger has a career .911 Sv% in the playoffs. You'd rather have that than Hellebuyck's 0.917?

... at least try to get the facts straight.

Otter is a .917, Hellebuyck is a .916.

 

[cneely]

Jack Eichel playoffs: 26 points in 22 games
Mark Scheifele playoffs: 32 points in 37 games

Who's picking sample sizes now?

He had a few bad games in last years playoff that dragged his stats down. And even with those bad games, still identical to Hellebuyck.

Even Quick wasn't immune to that during the Kings dominant runs.


... at least get the facts straight

So you're complaining that someone wants to take out his good games, but you want to ignore his bad games.

You can't make this up, lol.

 

[Romang67]

Jack Eichel playoffs: 26 points in 22 games
Mark Scheifele playoffs: 32 points in 37 games

He had a few bad games in last years playoff that dragged his stats down. And even with those bad games, still identical to Hellebuyck.

Even Quick wasn't immune to that during the Kings dominant runs.


... at least try to get the facts straight.

Otter is a .917, Hellebuyck is a .916.

One could even say that every playoff series he has played since the Flames series has drastically dragged his career playoff save percentage down. And yet I suspect that you're looking at the Flames playoff series when saying that he shows up in the playoffs year after year.

 

[JKG33]

Who's picking sample sizes now?


So you're complaining that someone wants to take out his good games, but you want to ignore his bad games.

You can't make this up, lol.

It's their entire playoff careers. Nothing picked about that.

Yes, that's the point lmao. Buddy wants to just look at his bad games. Two can play the stupid game and ill take out his bad ones.

 

[TS Quint]

I don't think that's necessarily a great thing. Sometimes in the playoffs you need a skater to take over a game and dominate it or break it open.

Schiefele has been that guy in the playoffs before. Connor can’t be that guy? Ehlers?

 

[JKG33]

One could even say that every playoff series he has played since the Flames series has drastically dragged his career playoff save percentage down. And yet I suspect that you're looking at the Flames playoff series when saying that he shows up in the playoffs year after year.

You could say whatever you want. Doesn't make it correct, but you can say it.

He's been every bit as good if not better than the great Hellebuyck. Nothing more to say

 

[cneely]

You could say whatever you want. Doesn't make it correct, but you can say it.

He's been every bit as good if not better than the great Hellebuyck. Nothing more to say

Because you said so.

 

[JKG33]

Because you said so.

I mean the save% also says it, but if you wanna defer to my knowledge that works for me

 

[Romang67]

You could say whatever you want. Doesn't make it correct, but you can say it.

He's been every bit as good if not better than the great Hellebuyck. Nothing more to say

No, what I said is definitely factually correct. That's what happens when your first playoff series is your best one, your second is your second best one, and your third and fourth are your worst ones by a wide margin. That's just how averages work.

More importantly, what you originally implied was that Oettinger performs well in the playoffs every year. Which, as I've pointed out, doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

 

[cneely]

I mean the save% also says it, but if you wanna defer to my knowledge that works for me

Oettinger has had about the same Sv% on a much better team.

Seems this year shows what happens to Hellebuyck when he has a decent team in front of him.

If your knowledge leads you to prefer a guy with worse career stats who is currently sporting an .896 Sv% on the season over a guy who has won one (soon to be two) Vezina's, and has a .923 Sv% you fill your boots.

 

[TS Quint]

Ya'll can feel free to tell me to eat shit if I'm proven wrong in a few months, but this thread title is exactly why I'm not scared of them as a playoff contender. Just like with the Islanders and Hurricanes of the last few years, they're playing playoff hockey way too early. It's great to dominate the regular season like that, but I have a feeling they won't find that extra gear come playoff time that cup winners have.

Playing defensive hockey is great, but in a 32 team league with goaltending as mediocre as it is across the league, they should be scoring more than just mid pack during the regular season. If they can't put up goals now, what's gunna happen in the playoffs when games tighten up?

It’s all relative. The Jets are 3rd in the league in goal diff. Isn’t that the point of the game? Score more than your opponents.

 

[JKG33]

No, what I said is definitely factually correct. That's what happens when your first playoff series is your best one, your second is your second best one, and your third and fourth are your worst ones by a wide margin. That's just how averages work.

More importantly, what you originally implied was that Oettinger performs well in the playoffs every year. Which, as I've pointed out, doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

To be perfectly honest I thought he had more than just a mop duty appearance prior to the Calgary series and that his sample size was slightly bigger than it is, my mistake there.

I'm still taking Oettinger to steal me a series over Hellebuyck, which is how this arguement started. His playoff peak is higher than Hellebuyck's, and even with the last 2 series he averages out to be similar.

 

[Romang67]

To be perfectly honest I thought he had more than just a mop duty appearance prior to the Calgary series and that his sample size was slightly bigger than it is, my mistake there.

I'm still taking Oettinger to steal me a series over Hellebuyck, which is how this arguement started. His playoff peak is higher than Hellebuyck's, and even with the last 2 series he averages out to be similar.

Gotcha. The supposed 2020 playoff series which was actually just spot duty is deceptive. I don't agree, I think Hellebuyck's series against Edmonton is the best either of them has done, but that's fine.