The Decline of Vladimir Krutov

[Batis]

Yes, it is a microscopically small sample size, and not even remotely an apples-to-apples comparison. This argument is not worth the time it took you to type it.

So that Dionne failed to produce against one of the two best national teams in the world while Makarov continued to produce at an extremely high level against the other of the two best national teams in the world is not relevant in the discussion of who was the better offensive player between Makarov or Dionne? Good to know. I accknowledged that the sample size was small and I never pretended that it meant everything but in my opinion its one of the reasons that tips the scale in Makarovs favour. Along with his overall international performances compared to Dionnes.

 

[BraveCanadian]

So that Dionne failed to produce against one of the two best national teams in the world while Makarov continued to produce at an extremely high level against the other of the two best national teams in the world is not relevant in the discussion of who was the better offensive player between Makarov or Dionne? Good to know. I accknowledged that the sample size was small and I never pretended that it meant everything but in my opinion its one of the reasons that tips the scale in Makarovs favour. Along with his overall international performances compared to Dionnes.

Yeah, honestly, all these players respective performances internationally really throw a wrench into the comparison of Krutov to someone like Taylor imo.

Krutov was obviously much better than Dave Taylor ever was in those big games and that kind of has to make you question the whole thing.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Anyone else think that Mikhailov is slightly overrated here (ATD & HFBoards generally)? And he is my 2nd favourite player of all-time, but still...

When everyone in Europe thinks Firsov > Mikhailov, and hfboards consistently has Mikhailov higher, something is amiss.

 

[jarek]

Yeah, honestly, all these players respective performances internationally really throw a wrench into the comparison of Krutov to someone like Taylor imo.

Krutov was obviously much better than Dave Taylor ever was in those big games and that kind of has to make you question the whole thing.

Sure.

But then you consider Dave Taylor had a very long and successful NHL career, whereas some people seem to completely ignore anything Krutov did in the Soviet leagues.

I posted this question earlier - if we ONLY consider what Krutov did internationally, what type of equivalent is that in terms of an NHL career? 2-3 years? And we look at a guy like Karlsson and complain he hasn't played long enough.

 

[jarek]

When everyone in Europe thinks Firsov > Mikhailov, and hfboards consistently has Mikhailov higher, something is amiss.

I think the problem might stem from Firsov being underrated more than anything else. Isn't he a lot like Kharlamov where the stats don't seem to justify the hype?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think the problem might stem from Firsov being underrated more than anything else. Isn't he a lot like Kharlamov where the stats don't seem to justify the hype?

His stats in international play are as good as you'd expect - he pretty much blew away his teammates in the late 60s.

His stats in the domestic league are hurt by the fact that assists weren't recorded at all for most of his prime, and he was a guy who could both score and pass.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I posted this question earlier - if we ONLY consider what Krutov did internationally, what type of equivalent is that in terms of an NHL career? 2-3 years? And we look at a guy like Karlsson and complain he hasn't played long enough.

I don't know why we would do that?

Do you only count what players did in the NHL?

We draft an awful lot of guys who never played a minute in the NHL.

 

[Sturminator]

His stats in the domestic league are hurt by the fact that assists weren't recorded at all for most of his prime, and he was a guy who could both score and pass.

We have Soviet League assist records for the greater part of Firsov's prime now. He was one of the better playmakers in the league, but not the best.

 

[Sturminator]

I don't know why we would do that?

Yes, well that's right...we shouldn't disregard about 80% of his games, should we?

 

[jarek]

Yes, well that's right...we shouldn't disregard about 80% of his games, should we?

Some people seem to.

 

[Batis]

Some people seem to.

I dont think that the Soviet League stats should be disregarded. But as the international tournaments seems to have been considered more important to the Soviet observers I think that the international performances should be considered slightly more important than the Soviet League performances when analysing Soviet players.

 

[Sturminator]

I dont think that the Soviet League stats should be disregarded. Far from. But as the international tournaments seems to have been considered more important to the Soviet observers I think that the international performances should be considered slightly more important than the Soviet League performances when analysing Soviet players.

The importance of international tournaments in the Soviet Union had a lot to do with demonstrating to the world "the glory of socialism". This was, in fact, the original reason that Stalin's son decreed in 1946 that "Canadian hockey" would be adopted in the Soviet Union (and bandy unilaterally banned as an organized sport); ice hockey was the international sport. Especially when discussing the Tikhonov era, the Soviet national team was a thoroughly politicized entity, sadly to the detriment of most of its players.

Why, exactly, should we adopt the priorities of the apparatchiks when analyzing the players' careers? I'm not especially interested in the opinions of the Soviet ministers of sport.

 

[Theokritos]

We have Soviet League assist records for the greater part of Firsov's prime now. He was one of the better playmakers in the league, but not the best.

1) A general question: I'd like to know more about those early records since assists were not officially awarded prior to 1971. Who recorded them prior to that?

2) How often were assists awarded? At an average of about 0.5 assists per goal, right? Is that enough to give us anything close to a complete picture or allow definitive conclusions? I don't think so.

The importance of international tournaments in the Soviet Union had a lot to do with demonstrating to the world "the glory of socialism". This was, in fact, the original reason that Stalin's son decreed in 1946 that "Canadian hockey" would be adopted in the Soviet Union (and bandy unilaterally banned as an organized sport)

Bandy wasn't banned as an organized sport.

 

[Theokritos]

If you just want a straight points-per-game comparison between Krutov / Makarov (including Makarov's points in 1982-83 and not Balderis') and Taylor / Dionne, here goes:

Krutov: 492 points in 413 games
Makarov: 639 points in 428 games
----------------------------------
Krutov PPG ~ 80% of Makarov's

Taylor: 794 points in 684 games
Dionne: 1091 points in 761 games
----------------------------------
Taylor PPG ~ 81% of Dionne's

1) Makarov and Krutov have one thing in common: neither player became a top 10 scorers in the Soviet league before he turned 21. Makarov in 1979-80, Krutov (who was exactly two years younger) in 1981-82. Comparing a 19 and 20 year old Vladimir Krutov to a 21+ year old Sergey Makarov is not exactly fair since you're basically asking the former to do something (keeping up with the top scorer/s) the latter wasn't able to do either at the same point of age and development. And indeed, the 1979-80 season (Krutov 19, Makarov 21) and the 1980-81 season (Krutov 20, Makarov 22) are the ones where Krutov really suffers in the comparison. Take them out and you get the following numbers:

Season | Makarov PPG | Krutov PPG | Krutov % of Makarov
1981-82 | 75/46 | 66/46 | 88
1982-83 | 42/30 | 53/44 | 86
1983-84 | 73/44 | 57/44 | 78
1984-85 | 65/40 | 53/40 | 82
1985-86 | 62/40 | 48/40 | 77
1986-87 | 53/40 | 50/39 | 97
1987-88 | 68/51 | 42/38 | 83
1988-89 | 54/44 | 41/35 | 95
Total | 492/335 | 410/326 | 86

2) I think it's problematic anyway to make a 1:1 comparison between leagues with different habits when it comes to awarding assists. Take a look at the 1981-1982 Los Angeles Kings (NHL regular season stats): Add up the individual scoring numbers and you'll find that the Kings scored 314 goals and got 508 assists. Ratio: 1.62 assists for every goal scored. Now compare CSKA Moscow 1981-1982 (Soviet league stats): The Red Army players scored 269 goals and got 275 assists in total. Ratio: 1.02 assists for every goal scored.
Obviously there were different views of what counts as an assist and what doesn't. Can we take it for granted that the difference in criteria would affect every player in the same way? No, we can't. Take away secondary assists and the numbers of player A might suffer more than the numbers of player B. Take away rebound assists and you have the same effect. And so on.

 

[jarek]

1) Makarov and Krutov have one thing in common: neither player became a top 10 scorers in the Soviet league before he turned 21. Makarov in 1979-80, Krutov (who was exactly two years younger) in 1981-82. Comparing a 19 and 20 year old Vladimir Krutov to a 21+ year old Sergey Makarov is not exactly fair since you're basically asking the former to do something (keeping up with the top scorer/s) the latter wasn't able to do either at the same point of age and development. And indeed, the 1979-80 season (Krutov 19, Makarov 21) and the 1980-81 season (Krutov 20, Makarov 22) are the ones where Krutov really suffers in the comparison. Take them out and you get the following numbers:

Season | Makarov PPG | Krutov PPG | Krutov % of Makarov
1981-82 | 75/46 | 66/46 | 88
1982-83 | 42/30 | 53/44 | 86
1983-84 | 73/44 | 57/44 | 78
1984-85 | 65/40 | 53/40 | 82
1985-86 | 62/40 | 48/40 | 77
1986-87 | 53/40 | 50/39 | 97
1987-88 | 68/51 | 42/38 | 83
1988-89 | 54/44 | 41/35 | 95
Total | 492/335 | 410/326 | 86

2) I think it's problematic anyway to make a 1:1 comparison between leagues with different habits when it comes to awarding assists. Take a look at the 1981-1982 Los Angeles Kings (NHL regular season stats): Add up the individual scoring numbers and you'll find that the Kings scored 314 goals and got 508 assists. Ratio: 1.62 assists for every goal scored. Now compare CSKA Moscow 1981-1982 (Soviet league stats): The Red Army players scored 269 goals and got 275 assists in total. Ratio: 1.02 assists for every goal scored.
Obviously there were different views of what counts as an assist and what doesn't. Can we take it for granted that the difference in criteria would affect every player in the same way? No, we can't. Take away secondary assists and the numbers of player A might suffer more than the numbers of player B. Take away rebound assists and you have the same effect. And so on.

Talk about cherry picking..

 

[BraveCanadian]

Talk about cherry picking..

Seemed kind of reasonable to me: Makarov took a big step up at the age of 21 and for whatever reason so did Krutov.

I don't think that an 8 year span where they were ages 21-28 and 23-30 is much of a cherrypick.

The assists complicate things though because I think Makarov would add more to his totals than Krutov.

 

[jarek]

Seemed kind of reasonable to me: Makarov took a big step up at the age of 21 and for whatever reason so did Krutov.

I don't think that an 8 year span where they were ages 21-28 and 23-30 is much of a cherrypick.

The assists complicate things though because I think Makarov would add more to his totals than Krutov.

Would it not be more reasonable to compare their scoring over how they did at the same age, then, instead of the same year? If we want to pretend that certain seasons a guy played do not exist for the sake of making him look better, then I might as well look only at Brind'amour's two Selke wins and call him the best defensive forward in the draft.

 

[Sturminator]

Talk about cherry picking..

Yeah...if I'd wanted to select Dave Taylor's seven best seasons playing with Dionne or somesuch, I could make him look better, too (hell, I included his rookie year in the original analysis), but I'm confident that the point is already made.

Interesting that we have now seen cherry picking, "he wasn't trying hard", and the suggestion that we ought to ignore or heavily discount 80% of Krutov's games played as arguments in his favor. I get the impression that Krutov's defenders are doing a bit of "running around in their own zone" at this point.

 

[Sturminator]

1) A general question: I'd like to know more about those early records since assists were not officially awarded prior to 1971. Who recorded them prior to that?

I'm not entirely sure, but they are all over the season recaps on the Championat site, and also now included in the SIHR data. Patrick Houda at SIHR would probably be the person to ask.

2) How often were assists awarded? At an average of about 0.5 assists per goal, right? Is that enough to give us anything close to a complete picture or allow definitive conclusions? I don't think so.

No different from the pre-war NHL, really.

Bandy wasn't banned as an organized sport.

I should have been more careful with my phrasing. For all intents and purposes, bandy died as an organized sport. The major sporting clubs, all organs of the communist party in some shape or form (factory teams, military, etc.), were ordered to convert their bandy programs to ice hockey programs. Though the sport was never "officially" banned within the Soviet Union, the only organizations which could have played it in an organized manner would have been private, and private organizations (especially in the Stalin era) in the Soviet Union were essentially nonexistent.

But no...I didn't mean to imply that the commissars started arresting children for playing bandy in the garden.

 

[Hobnobs]

Yeah...if I'd wanted to select Dave Taylor's seven best seasons playing with Dionne or somesuch, I could make him look better, too (hell, I included his rookie year in the original analysis), but I'm confident that the point is already made.

Interesting that we have now seen cherry picking, "he wasn't trying hard", and the suggestion that we ought to ignore or heavily discount 80% of Krutov's games played as arguments in his favor. I get the impression that Krutov's defenders are doing a bit of "running around in their own zone" at this point.

As far as I know,Jarek isnt a defender since he was the one who originally criticized Krutov.

 

[Theokritos]

Yeah...if I'd wanted to select Dave Taylor's seven best seasons playing with Dionne or somesuch, I could make him look better, too (hell, I included his rookie year in the original analysis), but I'm confident that the point is already made.

It would have been cherry picking if I had randomly picked the best seasons Krutov had throughout his career. What I do is discount the pre-prime seasons (stat-wise) of Krutov since no pre-prime seasons of Makarov figure in the comparison either and compare consecutive seasons when both players were in their prime. The original comparison was distorted in favour of Makarov.

No different from the pre-war NHL, really.

It shouldn't be assumed pre-war NHL scoring stats alone give us anything close to a full picture either.

For all intents and purposes, bandy died as an organized sport. The major sporting clubs, all organs of the communist party in some shape or form (factory teams, military, etc.), were ordered to convert their bandy programs to ice hockey programs. Though the sport was never "officially" banned within the Soviet Union, the only organizations which could have played it in an organized manner would have been private, and private organizations (especially in the Stalin era) in the Soviet Union were essentially nonexistent.

You got that wrong, bandy did not die as an organized sport. There was a Cup tournament that continued into the 1950s and there was a national championship beginning in the 1950s and continuing right up to 1992. On top of that, there were republican championships (Russian SS Republic etc) and city championships. And of course the Soviet Union had a bandy national team (in fact they won the first eleven editions of the world championships starting in 1957). A guy like Vladimir Yelizarov played bandy (Burevistnik Moscow 1945-47) before switching to hockey (Lokomotiv Moscow 1947-48 and CSKA [then CDKA] Moscow 1949-1953, won the domestic championship with the latter team in 1950), then switched back to bandy (CSKA 1953-55, won two domestic championships with them in 1954 and 1955) and finally returned to hockey (CSKA 1955-59, three domestic championships, played for the Soviet national team at the 1958 World Championship).

Organized bandy, elite level:
1946-1947 Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - Dinamo Leningrad 4-1
1947-1948 Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - Spartak Moscow 4-0
1948-1949 Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - Metrostroy Moscow 4-0
1949-1950:
-Championship: 1) ODO Sverdlovsk, 2) Dinamo Moscow, 3) Spartak Moscow
-Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - Traktor Krasnoyarsk 1-0
1950-1951:
-Championship: 1) Dinamo Moscow, 2) ODO Sverdlovsk, 3) Spartak Moscow
-Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - IFV Leningrad 2-1
1951-1952:
-Championship: 1) Dinamo Moscow, 2) KVIFK Leningrad, 3) ODO Sverdlovsk
-Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - IFV Leningrad 2-1
1952-1953:
-Championship: 1) ODO Sverdlovsk, 2) ODO Riga, 3) Traktor Krasnoyarsk
-Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - ODO Sverdlovsk 1-1, 2-1
1953-1954:
-Championship: 1) CSDA Moscow, 2) Dinamo Moscow, 3) Burevestnik Moscow
-Cup final: Dinamo Moscow - ODO Kharabovsk 2-1
1954-1955 Championship: 1) CSK MO Moscow, 2) ODO Sverdlovsk, 3) ODO Khabarovsk
etc

 

[Theokritos]

The assists complicate things though because I think Makarov would add more to his totals than Krutov.

Possibly, but it's worth noting that Krutov's numbers actually improve compared to Makarov in the games and tournaments held in North America, where assists were (in all likeliness) awarded by NHL stats guys: Canada Cup tournaments (1981, '84, '87), Super Series (1982-83, 1985-86, 1988-89) and Rendez-vous '87.

Canada Cup+Rendez-vous
Makarov: 24 games, 15g+16a
Krutov: 24 games, 16g+16a

Super Series
Makarov: 12 games, 9g+7a
Krutov: 17 games, 9g+11a

Total
Makarov: 36 games, 24g+23a = 1.306 PPG (=100%)
Krutov: 41 games, 25g+27a = 1.268 PPG (=97 %)

Small sample size? Yes, in numbers of game it is, but it's up to the individual whether he wants to believe it's only coincidence that Krutov consistently delivered again and again against NHL opposition during a period of almost eight years.

 

[Sturminator]

The original comparison was distorted in favour of Makarov.

Just as it was distorted in favor of Dionne. If you only look at the seven season period of Dave Taylor's scoring prime (1978-79 to 1984-85), the numbers in this period for Taylor/Dionne are Taylor [618 P/477 GP] and Dionne [844 P/544 GP], so Taylor ends up at 84% of Dionne's scoring.

So pretty much right back where we started. Shall we spend more time arguing at the statistical margins?

It shouldn't be assumed pre-war NHL scoring stats alone give us anything close to a full picture either.

Meh...pre-war assist rates actually line up quite well with the respective reputations of the players as playmakers. I don't see any reason not to use pre-war NHL assist stats because they may be an incomplete picture of playmaking. Modern NHL assist stats are also an incomplete picture of playmaking.

You got that wrong, bandy did not die as an organized sport.

I stand corrected.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

My point about the "glorified exhibition schedule" of the Soviet domestic league should have been more about competition than effort.

Basically, in North America, we know there are some players who tear up the AHL but don't do as well against better competition in the NHL.

I see the competition that the Red Army Team faced in the Soviet domestic league as basically AHL-quality for the most part. I would take it more seriously than AHL games, only because we need it for a better sample size, but I would not view the Soviet domestic league as a perfect equivalent to NHL regular season games either.

How far are we going to take this reliance on domestic regular season statistics? Will this board soon find Petrov to be better than Mikhailov or Kharlamov? Novy better than Martinec?

 

[Sturminator]

Small sample size? Yes, in numbers of game it is, but it's up to the individual whether he wants to believe it's only coincidence that Krutov consistently delivered again and again against NHL opposition during a period of almost eight years.

I find the argument that a ~ 40 game sample size is supposed to tell us more than a 400+ game sample size awfully weak. But like you said...each individual can judge for himself.