The curious case of Jake Muzzin

[lexlavender]

Jake Muzzin is now second in the league in Corsi percentage, behind the man himself J-dub. What confuses me to no end is why? Muzzin isn't exactly a spectacular defensemen. He isnt, like, the worst in the league or anything, but he isn't elite. His partner Drew Doughty is elite, but when we consider that Doughty carries Muzzin, it gets more confusing, because Drew sits at 15th in Corsi percentage in the league, 3rd among defensemen behind brent seabrook. While the difference between 1st and 3rd among defensemen isn't much, what I like to look at is the Corsi against statistic, where the difference between Muzzin and Doughty is 236 to 389, a difference of 153, which is a massive difference. Not only that, Muzzin leads the league in Corsi against for defensemen.
All this while considering that Doughty and Muzzin are both the top line pair with the first line fowards and the pairing for the fourth line. This means that their minutes are shared between dealing with top line offenses and fourth line offenses. Because of this, we can't say that Muzzin is simply being carried by the play of Kopi, jdub, and Brown, who all are in the tops for Corsi. while a fourth line offense isn't much to defend against, we also have to consider the effect of having our fourth line defending effects the play of Muzzin and Doughty. Can't back it up statistically, but its my feeling that our fourth line lets a lot of shots happen, and are pretty poor possession wise.

Based on all this, it would seem that Muzzin is a phenomenal defensemen on paper. He has the least corsi against chances in all the league, meaning that he limits shots through possession, and thus scoring chances. However, I'm sure alot of you who have seen his play wouldn't say he's an elite defensemen at all. Also, one can't say that this is an outlier, because he actually was second in the league in corsi percentage last season too.

So, I ask you, is Muzzin an amazing defensemen and I don't see it? Is doughty carrying his play? Is Kopi, J-dub, or Brown carrying him? What the heck is up with Muzzin?

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[Reclamation Project]

This video hasn't been more applicable to anything in the history of the god damn internet.

 

[Calirose]

for a kid his age his positioning is on another planet. thanks for this post.

 

[kingsholygrail]

We just notice his mistakes more.

 

[Calirose]

We just notice his mistakes more.

because they are more egregious. corsi dosent look at the quality of shots. he may give up more costly shots or opportunities. atleast his +/- (when read with corsi) would suggest that.

but thats to be expected from a 24 year old playing against some of the most talented forwards in hockey and then surprisingly gifted 4th liners. he also has the advantage of playing with some of the best defensive forwards.

 

[The Pale King]

we've been spoiled here these last few years. muzzin is really solid, but playing with doughty this past season and a bit has likely inflated his corsi a bit. he takes a ton of shots, likely as a result of how quickly forwards close on DD's point shots (and Drew's incredibly slow wind-up). we've also seen a lot of players, couture for example, who for whatever reason would rather try to show up DD and dangle by him rather than taking a solid wrister on net. Doughty has an aura around him, guys don't want to give him shots, and don't seem satisfied just getting the puck on net when he's on the ice. all that has helped muzzin's corsi.

also seems as though a lot of teams have yet to key in on muzzin as being a legitimate threat. I remember seeing a poster on here from another team say something like "we just got beat by a muzzin? wtf?"

 

[reset]

muzzin has been playing well of late, at least the last couple of games. But I think playing with doughty has really compensated for the inane mistakes he is prone to

 

[KingLB]

Muzzin is the most underrated player on the team. The heard on this board just sits around waking for a "mistake" so 8 people can post about it. Especially when compared to Amarts last few games which have been quite poor...yet I bet you couldn't find more than a handful of posts even mentioning a bad play.

Though remember Muzzin wasn't paired with DD all year. DD was carrying RR for a chunk of the season. DD also out at the end of the game where Muzzin is not. And finally DD PK's and while that isn't counted in Corsi, if the penalty ends while your defending play can be sustained for some time.

 

[Trolfoli]

We just notice his mistakes more.

My guess is Muzzin is getting a benefit from increased Ice time on a team that doesn't give up a lot of shots and goals. Against the Ducks Muzzin was only behind Drew in ice time. Muzzin's been hanging in there, but has a ton of turnovers and bad penalties. Probably due to being thrown on the ice for 26 mins. More time to make mistakes.

-Does Corsi take into account turnovers? Is that stat more of an indirect measurement? Like turnovers normally lead to less possession time and more shots against and therefore a lower Corsi. So if Muzzin turns the puck over and Doughty bails Muzzin out getting the puck back fast without a shot it won't hurt the Corsi too much.

-Does Corsi take into account his penalties? Muzzin has been a penalty machine.

-Stats are great, but when the math is telling you something different the what your eye's are seeing you need to look into the calculations to find out where the discrepancy is.

The big question is who do you see being on the top pairing when playoffs come?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Muzzin's egregious errors cannot be quantified. Take his play in the 3rd period that forced his teammate, Kyle Clifford, into taking a penalty. Muzzin mishandled the puck with a soft pass that led to a Ducks' counter attack that left Clifford with no option but to take down the Ducks' player in order to prevent a scoring opportunity.

Muzzin also pinches in aggressively way too often. Sometimes it works, other times it is ill timed and forces a forward to play out of position. He's been exposed when the puck is stuck inside of his own end and has had difficulty at times in getting the puck out of his own zone.

Corsi just looks at shots. It's not taking into account all of the questionable decisions the guy makes.

 

[goosh]

My only explanation is that his pairing with Greene early in the year was better than Doughty/Regehr.

 

[CowMix]

Corsi isn't a good judge of the quality of a defenseman's defensive skill. Muzzin's offensive skill and shot help his score a lot. You never see a defensive defenseman with a high corsi score.

Is corsi even that good of a judge at all? We've seen teams with horrible corsi scores lead the league. Dustin Brown also is a top corsi player and he's been playing on one leg all season.

 

[The Pale King]

Muzzin's egregious errors cannot be quantified. Take his play in the 3rd period that forced his teammate, Kyle Clifford, into taking a penalty. Muzzin mishandled the puck with a soft pass that led to a Ducks' counter attack that left Clifford with no option but to take down the Ducks' player in order to prevent a scoring opportunity.

Ah good call, Cliffy had to dive to try and poke away a beach ball there just above the circle. Quick plays like that are hard to catch, actually didn't even realize it was Muzzin who threw up bad turnover there.

He does tend to do that... maybe it can be coached out of his game?

 

[KingPurpleDinosaur]

big fan of muzzball. that guy is awesome and probably ripped a bit too much on here. nothing really more can be said that hasn't already been said. Doughty pairing probably helps him a ton on these stats. the two just got good chemistry together.

 

[KingKopitar11*]

I honestly feel that he's a bad defenseman. But he can be good at times. I saw how poor he was when I saw him handle that two on one. He didn't even take away the Damn passing Lane.

 

[triplcrown]

I still think Muzzin would make a good power FW playing at LW.

This Corsi guy with all his numbers sounds like a GoodFella.
Is he with the mob, or what?

 

[lexlavender]

Corsi isn't a good judge of the quality of a defenseman's defensive skill. Muzzin's offensive skill and shot help his score a lot. You never see a defensive defenseman with a high corsi score.

Is corsi even that good of a judge at all? We've seen teams with horrible corsi scores lead the league. Dustin Brown also is a top corsi player and he's been playing on one leg all season.

I thought that because Muzzin takes alot of shots it would inflate his corsi percentage, but that still doesn't explain his league leading corsi against. While I didn't check, it would be interesting to see what his corsi for is compared to the rest of the league.

and for your comment on the value of corsi, I personally feel that Corsi is more valuable when evaluating defensemen over fowards. A defensemen's job is to limit scoring chances, therefore their effectiveness will be reflected in Corsi. Corsi is less effective when evaluating forward value, as seen with Dustin Brown. A forward which limits shots is not necessarily an elite forward. in the case of Brown, Brown could simultaneously have low percentage shots on goal while playing with linemates that limit shots while he is on ice. Having Kopi and jdub as his partners also inflate his corsi against. Also, earlier in the season he was on the third line with Stoll, playing against third liners, which aren't necessarily shot machines. Finally, earlier in the season, he played along with notorious shutdown D in Greene and Martinez, who utterly destroy other teams third lines, limiting his corsi against even more.

 

[Inner Turbulence]

Muzzin works very well with Doughty. Doughgty seems to play his best hockey with Muzzin (of our current group).
I think, as a whole, our defensive corps has looked tremendous for a the last 15-20 games. After the early-season comical holy-handgrenade-puckhandling turnover-fiesta from just about everyone the current group and the current pairings has me as confident as I was during the Cup run. The pairings just seem to work well and all of the D-Men seem to be in the spot they are capable of playing right now. None of them are overmatched.

Regehr specifically has been tremendous for quite a while. Clears the front well, has been disciplined and just rubs out and flat out stops wingers coming down his side of the ice and his defensive zone puckhandling has been very good. Maybe not flashy, but he gets the puck to Voynov or he gets it out of the zone.

The way they are playing I'd be very reluctant to even put in Matt Greene when he returns. Not because Matt Greene doesn't deserve to be in the lineup, but just because the group currently gets the job done. Even strength and PK. Maybe not so much on the PP, but that's not really Greene's job anyway.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Muzzin certainly has a high ceiling. He's big, he can hit, he holds onto the puck for an extra second to allow a passing lane to open, he's got a good shot. He's also indecisive in the defensive zone at times, can get abused physically at times, holds onto the puck a little too long at times.

He's only played 80 NHL games. It's boom or bust with Muzzin, and you never know which Muzzin will be on the ice from shift to shift. He's the most bipolar talent on the team. On his good shifts, he's very effective. On his bad shifts...

 

[tigermask48]

Muzzin's egregious errors cannot be quantified. Take his play in the 3rd period that forced his teammate, Kyle Clifford, into taking a penalty. Muzzin mishandled the puck with a soft pass that led to a Ducks' counter attack that left Clifford with no option but to take down the Ducks' player in order to prevent a scoring opportunity.

Muzzin also pinches in aggressively way too often. Sometimes it works, other times it is ill timed and forces a forward to play out of position. He's been exposed when the puck is stuck inside of his own end and has had difficulty at times in getting the puck out of his own zone.

Corsi just looks at shots. It's not taking into account all of the questionable decisions the guy makes.

Spot on analysis ziggy. I remember at least two instances were he got caught standing around and the breakdown in coverage it caused me to prime scoring chances. I'll have to rematch the highlights of the last couple games when I'm not on my phone. But yeah, muslin still makes some awful boneheaded plays that stick out.

 

[damacles1156]

People just notice his mistakes more, A-Mart had one of the worst games ever against the Ducks(didn't see anyone complain).

He constantly lost board battles and was out muscled that whole game, played very little ice time.

A-Mart didn't even play against that top line much, but Muzzin makes a few mistakes against top players......And everyone is all over him.

Look the kid is going to make mistakes, it's going to happen.

Thankfully he has Doughty on the other side to help out. The Kings have already told Muzzin it's ok to make those mistakes.

They want him playing with that confidence to try and make plays.

Also it's not always Muzzin's fault, Doughty a few times this year has made awful passes/turnovers, and handed Muzzin a few Grenades.

So Drew is not all innocent here.

I am just happy Doughty finally has someone that can skate with him and play his minutes.

Muzzin has played 80 NHL games, it's going to be up and down for awhile with him.

Just like Toffoli/Vey or any other rookie for that matter. Hell Slava was terrible to start the year.

Only thing I would criticize Muzzin for is , he needs to be creating more offense. Doughty is drawing all the attention, Muzzin needs to make teams pay for that. Like he did last year

 

[KINGS17]

People just notice his mistakes more, A-Mart had one of the worst games ever against the Ducks(didn't see anyone complain).

He constantly lost board battles and was out muscled that whole game, played very little ice time.

A-Mart didn't even play against that top line much, but Muzzin makes a few mistakes against top players......And everyone is all over him.

Look the kid is going to make mistakes, it's going to happen.

Thankfully he has Doughty on the other side to help out. The Kings have already told Muzzin it's ok to make those mistakes.

They want him playing with that confidence to try and make plays.

Also it's not always Muzzin's fault, Doughty a few times this year has made awful passes/turnovers, and handed Muzzin a few Grenades.

So Drew is not all innocent here.

I am just happy Doughty finally has someone that can skate with him and play his minutes.

Muzzin has played 80 NHL games, it's going to be up and down for awhile with him.

Just like Toffoli/Vey or any other rookie for that matter. Hell Slava was terrible to start the year.

Only thing I would criticize Muzzin for is , he needs to be creating more offense. Doughty is drawing all the attention, Muzzin needs to make teams pay for that. Like he did last year

Agree 100%. Muzzin became everyone's whipping boy last year. Martinez was awful in the Duck game and was getting crushed along the boards. In that game Muzzin was doing a lot of the crushing.

I think as Muzzin gets more confidence we will see him ramp up his physical game a little bit more. No doubt that at this time he is better than Martinez. Martinez couldn't do what Muzzin is doing with Doughty right now.

 

[damacles1156]

Muzzin played 26 mins against the Ducks, a large portion of that against the Ducks top line...


Think about that folks... Was a +1 with 6 SOG....The Kid can play hockey.

I don't think A-Mart has logged a 26min game in his entire career in the NHL.

In that last 21 games Muzzin has only been a minus player once, has 9 points , and is right behind Doughty for shots on goal.

 

[KINGS17]

Muzzin played 26 mins against the Ducks, a large portion of that against the Ducks top line...


Think about that folks... Was a +1 with 6 SOG....The Kid can play hockey.

I don't think A-Mart has logged a 26min game in his entire career in the NHL.

In that last 21 games Muzzin has only been a minus player once, has 9 points , and is right behind Doughty for shots on goal.

I think Muzzin is right where he needs to be on the development curve. He and Doughty compliment each other because Doughty can do-it-all, and play anyway the Kings need him to play to win. Muzzin gets Doughty the puck in the right way by putting it on his tape when Doughty is accelerating. Regehr stifled Doughty's offensive game because he couldn't do that.

Right now Martinez looks a bit worn down to me. He is still a great bottom pairing guy, but he is likely going to sit as soon as Greene gets back. The last thing Sutter should do at this point is break up the Doughty-Muzzin pairing.

 

[Ollie Weeks]

I am comfortable with Muzzin where he is, and I take the good with the bad knowing what he's doing for Doughty's game. He's throwing the body around a bit more too, which is nice to see.