The Chia Bets

[Drivesaitl]

Please stop telling the mods how to do their job. Not everyone thinks like you. This site is not a safe space for folks who refuse to recognize that there are negative things to be discussed.

Its bad enough that posters who want to recognize the negative get shouted at. Now you don't want them to even enjoy their rights to speak at all except in the one thread that you think is permissible? And you are even in that thread shouting at them to be quiet? Ridiculous.

Yep. Its frankly amazing people are being told what is appropriate to be posted in even the #FireChia thread. I mean the team is 14th place, its basically XMAS, its 3years into Chias scorched Earth and we have enough wingers to make up one scoring line. Go Chia..

BBO here, I can only think realizes that he's posting an OP, a grading OP of sorts, and that people will respond. With almost everybody questioning the grades. That either makes us negative or that there really isn't much in positive grading of Chia's body of work that passes mustard.

I get the attempt at positivity after every win but there should probably be better substantiation for it to be very convincing.

The very definition of a discussion thread is an OP formulation followed by the replies. Its why we are here.

 

[Tyrolean]

Here we are with more than a 1/3 of the season done, let's look at the wagers that he made this offseason and into this season in terms of new additions and unproven returning players.

1) Ryan Strome 33gp. 4-9-13 +1 Loss
A big topic of discussion has been the Eberle for Ryan Strome trade. Eberle has had a solid bounce back season with 13-10-23 in 33gp. A big part of the trade was clearing cap space moving forward, Eberle is paid $3.5 million more than Strome and has outscored him by 9-1-10 in the same 33 game sample size. I am unsure if Strome will be here beyond this season so it is hard to say that we won this trade at this point since we haven't used the cap space towards any new player additions and Strome clearly isn't replacing Eberle's production this season but how does he stack up to Eberle's last 33 regular season games for the Oilers? Eberle's stat line in his last 33 regular season games as an Oiler: 9-10-19 +4

2) Jesse Puljujarvi 16gp. 6-2-8 +7 Win
Going back to the Eberle trade, you would have to think that one of the reasons that Chiarelli decided to move out Eberle was because he had a 19 year old top 5 pick fro the previous year waiting in the wings. You can talk about how underwhelming Strome has been but Puljujarvi looks like a player that will be able to play when it matters most due to his combination of size, speed and skill. This is the RW of the now and the future, he started in the AHL which may have been a surprise to the GM in the sense that he expected more in camp, but there is no arguing now that he is looking like the player that had our GM grinning ear to ear when he was available with the 4th overall pick.

3) Darnell Nurse 33gp. 2-10-12 +7 Win
With Andrei Sekera out (yet to return although he's almost there), Chia anticipated that he would see enough internal growth from some of his young defensemen that they could ride out the storm until Reggie returned. Nurse's progression this season has been significant. His responsibilities have gone up considerably and likely wouldn't have happened without the opportunity from the Sekera and Larsson injuries.

4) Matt Benning 30gp. 4-4-8 +2 Win
Like Nurse, Benning has been counted on to take up some of the slack from the Sekera injury. Unlike Nurse he has had more ups and downs this season. That said he has still been adequate as a 3rd pairing defenseman and IMO has more to give in time.

5) Drake Caggiula 22gp. 4-3-7 -9 Loss
After a decent playoffs I think that it was somewhat reasonable to expect a better showing out of the Drake this season but he just flat out hasn't risen to the occasion. I for one question his future with the team.

6) Anton Slepyshev 15gp. 1-2-3 -1 Loss
Like Caggiula, Slepyshev showed well in the post season but just has not gained traction this season. If I had to pick between Drake and Anton, I would keep Anton. That said I wonder if he too has a future here beyond this season.

7) Jujhar Khaira 20gp. 5-4-9 +2 Win
Khaira started slowly after a solid preseason but has since come out and done very well for us. His combination of size, speed, skill and grit could well make Maroon expendable. Unlike Caggiula and Slepyshev, Khaira has arrived this season.

8) Yohann Auvitu 19gp. 2-3-5 +7 Win
Added as a depth defenseman, Auvitu has shown recently that he can play at the NHL level and provide some offensive pop from the blueline. Depth on defense is never a bad thing.

9) Jussi Jokinen 14gp. 0-1-1 -3 Loss
What may have been the most lauded signing of the offseason turned out to be a massive bust for the Oilers.

10) Michael Cammalleri 14gp. 1-5-6 -5 Win
Considering we got him for the invisible man Jokinen, I'll consider his offensive production as a positive.

11) Nathan Walker 1gp. 0-0-0 -1 INC
A single game played gives too small of a window into whether he was a good waiver claim or not.

12) Brandon Davidson 5gp. 0-0-0 +2 Win
Small sample size, but Davie has been solid in his return and has helped us to play many of our best games as a team this season.


As I see it, we have had a rough go because some of these players haven't stepped up to the plate (Strome, Caggiula, Slepyshev) and we have had sub par seasons from some of our key players ie. Klefbom and Talbot. Overall I have his record at 7-4-1 which isn't too bad. I think that this season has shown that Puljujarvi and Khaira should be mainstays here up front while some of the other guys may need a new start elsewhere.

In many cases it is still to early to make verdict.

Strome = loss for now but saved 3 million on cap.
Puljujarvai - beginning to look like a win, jury is still out.
Nurse - was break even but now trending to wards a win
Benning -even
Caggulia - even but getting worst
Slepyshev - even trending down because coach is losing trust in him, but a very good player
Auvitu - even
Jokinen - Loss
Cammalleri - slight win
Walker - no decision yet
Davidson was a loss because of Desharnais) now recovered for a win (lucky)
Reinhart - HUGE loss.
Lucic - even trending toward loss before.

Yama - no decision

 

[belair]

You're welcome to ignore this or any thread, please stop the incessant whining on this board.

I'd classify the obsessive discussion regarding Hall, Eberle and Barzal as 'whining'.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Laurent Brossoit - loss.

Good call, I need to add him to the OP.

There is no reality in which a GM with a 14-17-2 record is 7-4-1 when it comes to key roster decisions.

Not to mention it's wholly ridiculous to give the inclusion of a fourth liner the same weight as trading top-six forwards/not acquiring top four defensemen.

Just more Chia apologist nonsense.

7-5-1 adding Brossoit. It isn't just these decisions that has hurt the team, key players and coaching have also hurt it.

Benning hasn't been a win he' arguably bee the teams worst defenseman after gryba.

Does he appear to be an AHL caliber player to you? IMO he is much better as a defenseman than say Caggiula has been as a forward.

Benning is definitely a loss, he has been awful this season. Offensive numbers aren't bad and he throws the occasional nice hit but his defending and passing has been eye poppingly poor. Davidson looks infinitely better than him albeit in a small sample size.

The problem with grading Puljujarvi and Khaira is that they started producing after the Oilers dug the early season hole so while those might be considered wins for the future, it likely doesn't do much to save this season.

The bottom line is that Chia's bets have largely been failures but his bets aren't the main reason why the team failed, it's regressions by Talbot, Klefbom and Draisaitl. Those three up until recently have been a good deal worse than they were last season. The Sekera injury and downgrade from Eberle to Strome have been contributing factors but secondary to the previous three names. I'd also add that playing Gryba as much as they did hurt the team also, very evident with the addition of Davidson how much better the bottom pairing is now.

Had a big reply typed out and somehow deleted it. So coles notes: Benning brings some offense, physicality and his +/- is +2 so hardly the tire fire that some are making him out to be.

Khaira and Jesse are playing well even though it took some time to gain traction, they were good bets, just that they didn't pay off quite as soon as we would've liked.

Agreed on key players sinking the team, coaching as well.

There is no way on Gods green earth that Benning is a win. Also, Pulju, Eberle is hardly an either or transaction. We could have had both, for almost the identical price given pulju is on cheap ELC. We could use both.

Theres no way Camm is a win either. If the bar you set is "better than Jokinen" then its lose lose. Whether it be Jokinen, or Camm its the outright failure to get anything better. Also, Jokinen is playing better in LA, than Camm is here. Not that I think either should be in an NHL lineup at this point.

Nathan Walker Inconclusive. you mean in that it took 1 game to see how entirely useless another of Chia's additions was? If anything these are examples of McLellan sticking it back up Chia's ass saying if you recruit nothing players like this I'm not playing them. Say hi to Malone.

How is Khaira a win? That's an automatic Inconclusive if that. The guy has 5NHL career goals. This is the third season he's been brought up. He still looks out of place for anything but a 4th line and inconsistent in that. Again if the comparison metric is outright failures like Cagg or Strome then its a case of the scale being distorted through outright Chia offseason incompetence.

Davidson is an odd Win as well. Was it a loss when Chia walked away from him? Davidson is better than 3 of the D we have been dressing and a lot of us knew that at the time. I like Davidson, but given that Chia gave up on the same player and was only lucky to get him back on waivers due to our futility its at best an asterisk call.

Strome hasn't had a subpar year either. This IS Strome. If anything he's even exceeding his normal production. This is how ridiculously vanilla, and ineffective his game is.

How Chia gets a passing report card on this offseason is incomprehensible. On this rating scale Tambo would pass.

Benning has 4 goals and is a + player, not bad for a 3rd pairing D IMO.

Then we likely would've moved Nuge instead due to cap concerns, I for one prefer Nuge to Ebs.

He took chicken **** and turned it into something a little useful at least. Neither guy would/will be back beyond this season, they are roster filler because Caggiula and Slepy crapped the bed.

1 game is 1 game.

Khaira has been solid, I see him as Maroon's replacement.

He claimed him back and wouldn't have dealt him if there was no expansion draft IMO.

Kris Russell contract - Huge loss
Gryba 2 year deal - loss
Clearing a bunch of cap space and doing nothing with it - huge loss

Russell has been solid this season, hardly one of the problems for this team. While I don't like the NMC/NTC parts of his deal and also felt that it was a year too long, he's been fine.

Gryba is fine as a 7-9D.

So far I would agree.

Yeah but Benning has been an adequate 3rd pairing dman, Auvitu hasn't been brutal, and Cammalleri has been better than Jokinen so it's a wash.

Hardly, not all transactions are created equal.

Interestingly, Pulju is scoring at exactly the same rate (2.2 pts/game) as Eberle did last year. I agree 100% that he was meant to help make up for the loss with Eberle, and lo and behold, he hasn't just made up for it, he's downright replaced it. So Strome, in my view, can produce at the rate he's been producing and Chia still looks fine.

IMO Jesse will be better than Ebs ever was in the sense that he has better physical tools to produce when the going gets tough. That said Strome has been a disappointment as far as I'm concerned. I wish that he would've focused on his skating this past offseason like Ebs did for the Islanders.

This would be an acceptable statement except we are short on winger talent, so that for instance Drai is left playing with two pylons like Strome and Khaira and Nuge is recently playing with Maroon and whoever else drops into that spot on any given night.

We have one set line that rocks EV. We have two others that get very little done EV due to a shortage in winger talent.

Again Pulju/Eberle is not either or. Its not connected. The only commonality being they are both wingers.

Pouliot, as bad as he was last season is a better player than Strome. So was Pitlick, so was Desharnais, etc.

Khaira is better than you give him credit for, he is basically this year's Pitick for us. Pouliot was Strome bad last year and took dumb penalties to boot. Desharnais was nothing special, just center depth which we have plenty of right now. .

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'd classify the obsessive discussion regarding Hall, Eberle and Barzal as 'whining'.

I'd wonder why you are in the thread when you are not responding to the content of the thread or the OP. As myself and others have done.

I thank BBO for bringing some content, that's what a board is about. I don't happen to agree with the pts raised, and rebut, but its all in discussion. You're in here saying "well I don't like this discussion, can't we have some other type of positivity only discussion", in a thread you didn't create.
You're doing that while suggesting everybody else including the OP are grinding axes.

 

[harpoon]

BBO here, I can only think realizes that he's posting an OP, a grading OP of sorts, and that people will respond. With almost everybody questioning the grades. That either makes us negative or that there really isn't much in positive grading of Chia's body of work that passes mustard.

Word. All fans, positive or negative, realize that Chiarelli made some big gambles this off season.
If you feel the bets Chiarelli made have worked out well then by all means post up your thoughts.
If you have nothing to say other than calling out the OP for making a negative thread (a thread which to my eye had a few overly positive grades) I think that kinda indicates that deep inside you agree that Chiarelli lost most of his bets.

The only real for sure win that I give Chiarelli is Nurse. To some extent part of his gamble must have been his thoughts that Nurse was progressing along a trajectory that would allow him to pick up a lot of the Sekera slack. In that respect he was right where a lot of posters on this site (Nurse lacks hockey IQ etc etc) were wrong. Dead wrong. The fact that Klefbom fell off a cliff was not something that any GM could be reasonably expected to predict given Klefbom's mostly solid track record. I think the Nurse gamble is a win for Chiarelli.

I thank BBO for bringing some content, that's what a board is about. I don't happen to agree with the pts raised, and rebut, but its all in discussion.

Exactly. And I have no idea how anyone could characterize the OP as anything but a positive take.

 

[StevenF1919]

I'd classify the obsessive discussion regarding Hall, Eberle and Barzal as 'whining'.

How dare people question any moves His Holiness Peter Chiarelli has made!!

 

[Drivesaitl]

Word. All fans, positive or negative, realize that Chiarelli made some big gambles this off season.
If you feel the bets Chiarelli made have worked out well then by all means post up your thoughts.
If you have nothing to say other than calling out the OP for making a negative thread (a thread which to my eye had a few overly positive grades) I think that kinda indicates that deep inside you agree that Chiarelli lost most of his bets.

The only real for sure win that I give Chiarelli is Nurse. To some extent part of his gamble must have been his thoughts that Nurse was progressing along a trajectory that would allow him to pick up a lot of the Sekera slack. In that respect he was right where a lot of posters on this site (Nurse lacks hockey IQ etc etc) were wrong. Dead wrong. The fact that Klefbom fell off a cliff was not something that any GM could be reasonably expected to predict given Klefbom's mostly solid track record. I think the Nurse gamble is a win for Chiarelli.

The OP would know I was never that enthused with Klefbom and thought Nurse was better. Nurse, even without developing had the Jason Smith charm school of D to fall back on even he didn't develop further. So that even minimally Nurse was going to be an unpleasant don't get in my face, don't get anywhere near my slot type D. Useful guaranteed. That he is a far better skater, reads ice better, makes better transition passes and can support offense means the sky is the limit. Nurse could be the best D on this team, including Larsson, in a short period of time. Or as good as Larsson.

I never really bought the Klefbom positive assessment. I thought his play was very Larsson derivative. Larsson-Nurse looked better, jmo, than Larsson-Klef did. We just had Sekera back then helping to shore up minutes.

 

[belair]

I'd wonder why you are in the thread when you are not responding to the content of the thread or the OP. As myself and others have done.

I thank BBO for bringing some content, that's what a board is about. I don't happen to agree with the pts raised, and rebut, but its all in discussion. You're in here saying "well I don't like this discussion, can't we have some other type of positivity only discussion", in a thread you didn't create.
You're doing that while suggesting everybody else including the OP are grinding axes.

It was a direct call out to how these threads have consistently reverted back to the same discussion--including GDTs and Rumor threads.

Though, I have just noticed OPs warning in the Rumor thread which is essentially where I'm coming from. Apologies, BBO.

 

[harpoon]

Buddy, have you read the boards recently? It's been rinse-repeat the same things discussed over and over again. It's a yawn fest.

I read the boards almost every day. For more than ten years. Some days I get a 'yawn'. Some days I get excited. I always however recognize that posters are posting about stuff they care about even if its giving me a 'yawn' and I never seek to curtail their freedom to do so.

You used to get bent out of shape when there was a healthy contingent of fans trashing Eberle who were willing to send him off to Vegas for free.

And I debated the poster. I may not have always done so politely but I never once posted that fans should have their opinions deleted or confined to threads that I thought were appropriate.

That contingent of fans had their garbage posts held to one thread and whatever GDTs and Rumour threads they could poke their heads into. There was some semblance of control.

False. The board was awash with unbridled hated for a guy who had managed to keep himself in the top 30 goal scorers in the league while playing for the worst team. You just think things were 'under control' because you didn't care for Eberle as a hockey player.

I'm not opposed to the idea of discussion regarding these moves because ultimately that's what these boards are for, but having the discussion bleed into every single thread in HFOil is tedious. It makes them unreadable.

Again, please try to remember that what you think is 'tedious' is something another poster may feel bears repeating. Our society in general these days has way too many people thinking that opposing viewpoints need to be silenced. I disagree with that. And I disagree with your thoughts in this thread. I hope you can understand that as tedious and yawn worthy as you may find my thoughts or the thoughts of others, we have a right to post them within the rules of the site.

 

[Drivesaitl]

BBO, thanks for the reply. The format is too messy to respond so I will try to get back to your responses.
Benning, fine, I could be too hard on him. I'm spotting a lot of the mistakes without maybe acknowledging the contributions. That said he's been positionally an adventure this season but probably a lot of that being due to Sekera and Larsson missing and everybody having to punch above weight. I still like Davidson more.

Khaira as a Maroon replacement? I dunno. The problem with that statement is that you are projecting Khaira COULD be a future Maroon, not that he is one. The present Maroon has 50 goals here in the same time Khaira has been around. Sure Maroon is older but he has infinitely better hands and see's ice consistently better. Theres a lot of Maroon feeds presently not working because he needs guys that will go to money areas to be successful. Maroon spends all day in the paint, around the net and will live there and all he requires is the support of other players that will be so inclined, Like Draisatl , like Lucic, like Kassian. Maroon is a down low player and he's not currently on a down low line.

But this is the whole problem with Chia assessment that you are repeating. That Chia just figures that Y player is replacing X player. Generally that has worked out poorly. You should rethink the Khaira/Maroon thing. Watch Maroon closely. The guy makes a lot of plays. Every game he's sending passes into the slot, crease, and sometimes they just don't connect but he's beating guys in battles and making the plays.

Walker isn't much. He made 3 bad reads in his first game with a new club, and as a vet things you just can't do. He came to the bench after one shift like he knew his NHL career was done. You can't come to a new club and lose your head out there in your first game. He played like a rank amateur.

Slepy I wouldn't conclude on. I need to see more of him. I like the player, I like the potential. I see him being better than Khaira.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Again, please try to remember that what you think is 'tedious' is something another poster may feel bears repeating. Our society in general these days has way too many people thinking that opposing viewpoints need to be silenced. I disagree with that. And I disagree with your thoughts in this thread. I hope you can understand that as tedious and yawn worthy as you may find my thoughts or the thoughts of others, we have a right to post them within the rules of the site.

Gold is found here. money post. All of it, but the bolded is something to heed.

 

[harpoon]

7) Jujhar Khaira 20gp. 5-4-9 +2 Win
Khaira started slowly after a solid preseason but has since come out and done very well for us. His combination of size, speed, skill and grit could well make Maroon expendable. Unlike Caggiula and Slepyshev, Khaira has arrived this season.

I guess I should post about this one too. I never made any posts about Khaira because I was highly skeptical that the Oilers would actually be able to develop a player drafted outside the top couple rounds.
However in his first 20 games this year I think he has shown enough that this could be considered a qualified win for Chiarelli.
He still has games where he looks rough, but he has had a handful of games where he has looked like a player with a good NHL future. And that's what one would expect from a player in his first NHL season.
The thing about Khaira is that you sense he really wants it. I get the feeling this is a guy who isn't slacking off in his weight training and his practice regimen. In fact I would be surprised if he wasn't among the hardest workers on the team.
Plus he steps up for team mates. I expect Khaira to only improve as the season goes along. He doesn't yet have the scoring talent to contribute in a big way, but I'll mark this down as a small win for Peter.

 

[belair]

I read the boards almost every day. For more than ten years. Some days I get a 'yawn'. Some days I get excited. I always however recognize that posters are posting about stuff they care about even if its giving me a 'yawn' and I never seek to curtail their freedom to do so.
And I debated the poster. I may not have always done so politely but I never once posted that fans should have their opinions deleted or confined to threads that I thought were appropriate.
False. The board was awash with unbridled hated for a guy who had managed to keep himself in the top 30 goal scorers in the league while playing for the worst team. You just think things were 'under control' because you didn't care for Eberle as a hockey player.
Again, please try to remember that what you think is 'tedious' is something another poster may feel bears repeating. Our society in general these days has way too many people thinking that opposing viewpoints need to be silenced. I disagree with that. And I disagree with your thoughts in this thread. I hope you can understand that as tedious and yawn worthy as you may find my thoughts or the thoughts of others, we have a right to post them within the rules of the site.

There was plenty of criticism out there regarding his play though...and much of it deserved. But it didn't bleed into every single discussion on HFOil unlike the anti-Chia rhetoric has this season.

 

[McClelland]

He claimed him back and wouldn't have dealt him if there was no expansion draft IMO

So you now vegas had taken Davidsson instead of Reinhart, who they took, thats a way to excuse Chia! Any link to Chia saying he was forced to trade Davidsson?

As i saw how vegas took in expansion draft, im pretty sure Reinhart where there main target all the time because of his high draft. Trying out prospects and see if they could find a hidden gem. Dont think they looked for a 6-7- D , that they could had anywhere.

 

[StevenF1919]

Why is Khaira listed as a win for Chia? He was drafted in 2012.

 

[harpoon]

Why is Khaira listed as a win for Chia? He was drafted in 2012.

Its the Chiarelli bets thread, not the Chiarelli draft thread.
I think posters are saying that Chiarelli was betting that Khaira was ready to step into a full time NHL job and contribute therefore he didn't purse any other outside options on the wings in off season. At least that's my take on the op and why I responded as I did.

 

[belair]

Personally, I wouldn't look at Khaira, Slepyshev or Caggiula individually when discussing them as Chiarelli's 'bets'. Their combined production, paired with the addition of Strome and the emergence of JP were what he and the Oilers were banking on to replace the production of the departed Eberle. It was a miss that many of us foresaw in training camp.

 

[StevenF1919]

Its the Chiarelli bets thread, not the Chiarelli draft thread.
I think posters are saying that Chiarelli was betting that Khaira was ready to step into a full time NHL job and contribute therefore he didn't purse any other outside options on the wings in off season. At least that's my take on the op and why I responded as I did.

That makes more sense. I don't really think he bet on Khaira though, I always got the idea that it was more Slepy and Caggiula that were expected to replace Eberle.

Personally, I wouldn't look at Khaira, Slepyshev or Caggiula individually when discussing them as Chiarelli's 'bets'. Their combined production, paired with the addition of Strome and the emergence of JP were what he and the Oilers were banking on to replace the production of the departed Eberle. It was a miss that many of us foresaw in training camp.

Relying on 5 players to replace Eberle's production is a little ridiculous since there would be production also coming from 4 other players in addition to Eberle. What would the production be if it was Eberle + 4 other players combined?

 

[bobbythebrain]

There was plenty of criticism out there regarding his play though...and much of it deserved. But it didn't bleed into every single discussion on HFOil unlike the anti-Chia rhetoric has this season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I guess I should post about this one too. I never made any posts about Khaira because I was highly skeptical that the Oilers would actually be able to develop a player drafted outside the top couple rounds.
However in his first 20 games this year I think he has shown enough that this could be considered a qualified win for Chiarelli.
He still has games where he looks rough, but he has had a handful of games where he has looked like a player with a good NHL future. And that's what one would expect from a player in his first NHL season.
The thing about Khaira is that you sense he really wants it. I get the feeling this is a guy who isn't slacking off in his weight training and his practice regimen. In fact I would be surprised if he wasn't among the hardest workers on the team.
Plus he steps up for team mates. I expect Khaira to only improve as the season goes along. He doesn't yet have the scoring talent to contribute in a big way, but I'll mark this down as a small win for Peter.

The timing of it doesn't make any sense to me. Pitlick was a better option and better player, as BBO agrees The trouble with the Khaira could be good sentiment is we need good wingers now, desperately, or the season is done.

I disagree on Khaira as far as his work rate and preparation and so does McLellan who felt Khairas tank was already empty after preseason. Khaira isn't used to the NHl work rate and certainly not playing with somebody like Draisaitl who will work players into the ground very much like Kopitar will.

Maybe I'm disliking Khaira currently because Draisaitl is presently being hamstrung with him and Strome which is a dead duck line. WE need better options now, not later. This is McD era ticking. We need players now, not futures.

My honest impression of this org is a year or two Khaira or Slepy, or Cagg are not even in the fold. This org rarely sticks with their B prospects. If you're not a first round calibre pick in this org you don't get developed well enough to be a player.

 

[Drivesaitl]

That makes more sense. I don't really think he bet on Khaira though, I always got the idea that it was more Slepy and Caggiula that were expected to replace Eberle.

Relying on 5 players to replace Eberle's production is a little ridiculous since there would be production also coming from 4 other players in addition to Eberle. What would the production be if it was Eberle + 4 other players combined?

The combined production will replace.....

Is always a fallacy.

Why does it get stated so often. The mere invoking of it is desperate argument. Its the K Lowe "I got 5 beans for Pronger" argument. Do people even believe such logic?

Any time a combined formula like that is being proferred you always know your club walked the far better player. The converse logic being that it takes several players to replace the production or performance of the one. Which isn't really replacing at all.

 

[belair]

That makes more sense. I don't really think he bet on Khaira though, I always got the idea that it was more Slepy and Caggiula that were expected to replace Eberle.

Relying on 5 players to replace Eberle's production is a little ridiculous since there would be production also coming from 4 other players in addition to Eberle. What would the production be if it was Eberle + 4 other players combined?

It is assumed combined production. Our bottom six didn't shoot the lights out last season--aside from #55, who's seen a substantial decline this year. Strome himself is an upgrade on what we had at 3C last season. So expecting one of those guys to have a breakout and possibly fill some of that quota wasn't necessarily impossible, but it was definitely optimistic.

 

[StevenF1919]

The combined production will replace.....

Is always a fallacy.

Why does it get stated so often. The mere invoking of it is desperate argument. Its the K Lowe "I got 5 beans for Pronger" argument. Do people even believe such logic?

Any time a combined formula like that is being proferred you always know your club walked the far better player. The converse logic being that it takes several players to replace the production or performance of the one. Which isn't really replacing at all.

Who knows. Maybe people think that if Eberle was still on the team the other forwards would get 0 points?

It is assumed combined production. Our bottom six didn't shoot the lights out last season--aside from #55, who's seen a substantial decline this year. Strome himself is an upgrade on what we had at 3C last season. So expecting one of those guys to have a breakout and possibly fill some of that quota wasn't necessarily impossible, but it was definitely optimistic.

Eberle would be tied for 1st on the team in goals right now. None of his "replacements" are even close.

Expecting any of those players to score 25 goals was just an awful bet. Expecting Strome to even come close to Eberle production is laughable. Eberle is on pace to score as many goals as Strome will have points this season. This was a bet that was lost as soon as it was made.

 

[belair]

Who knows. Maybe people think that if Eberle was still on the team the other forwards would get 0 points?

Eberle would be tied for 1st on the team in goals right now. None of his "replacements" are even close.

Expecting any of those players to score 25 goals was just an awful bet. Expecting Strome to even come close to Eberle production is laughable. Eberle is on pace to score as many goals as Strome will have points this season. This was a bet that was lost as soon as it was made.

Eberle's production in NY is meaningless to us. Good for him. I'm happy to see him succeed.

His production last season was ~50 points from the 2RW. That was his assumed production that we needed someone or some people to step up and replace this season through personal growth. No one expected Ryan Strome to score 25 goals or 50 points this season. But they did expect him to score a significant share of them, likely playing third line minutes.