The Chia Bets

[bobbythebrain]

Eberle's production in NY is meaningless to us. Good for him. I'm happy to see him succeed.

His production last season was ~50 points from the 2RW. That was his assumed production that we needed someone or some people to step up and replace this season through personal growth. No one expected Ryan Strome to score 25 goals or 50 points this season. But they did expect him to score a significant share of them, likely playing third line minutes.

You're missing the point IMO. So you're saying the hole left at RW was ok and has no bearing whatsover on the current team record?

 

[belair]

You're missing the point IMO. So you're saying the hole left at RW was ok and has no bearing whatsover on the current team record?

No. Where did I say that?

I will say that our special teams, suspect goaltending and complete lack of depth scoring to open the season all hold significantly more blame to our current team record than us missing Jordan Eberle though.

 

[CupofOil]

Who knows. Maybe people think that if Eberle was still on the team the other forwards would get 0 points?

Eberle would be tied for 1st on the team in goals right now. None of his "replacements" are even close.

Expecting any of those players to score 25 goals was just an awful bet. Expecting Strome to even come close to Eberle production is laughable. Eberle is on pace to score as many goals as Strome will have points this season. This was a bet that was lost as soon as it was made.

That's not how it works unless the Oilers were trading for Barzal to play with Eberle. Besides, Eberle didn't want to be here anymore so it doesn't matter what he projected to produce here. The problem wasn't dealing Eberle, the problem was the return.

Anyway, I think Puljujarvi (not Cagguila or Slepy) was supposed to replace Eberle's production and whatever Strome added offensively although he wasn't a direct Eberle replacement. Pulju not looking quite NHL ready in preseason threw a wrench into those plans.

Again though, you guys are focusing on very secondary things. The team isn't failing because Eberle isn't here anymore, the main reason is because the top players outside of McDavid haven't been as good as they were last season. Hell, even McDavid wasn't really himself until recently. The Oilers were getting minimal contributions from their secondary players most of last season too up until the last month or so.

 

[StevenF1919]

Eberle's production in NY is meaningless to us. Good for him. I'm happy to see him succeed.

His production last season was ~50 points from the 2RW. That was his assumed production that we needed someone or some people to step up and replace this season through personal growth. No one expected Ryan Strome to score 25 goals or 50 points this season. But they did expect him to score a significant share of them, likely playing third line minutes.

Eberle had a career low Sh% last year. It wasn't a stretch to predict a bounceback season for him.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Eberle had a career low Sh% last year. It wasn't a stretch to predict a bounceback season for him.

Especially with a bounce back with Nuge

 

[StevenF1919]

That's not how it works unless the Oilers were trading for Barzal to play with Eberle. Besides, Eberle didn't want to be here anymore so it doesn't matter what he projected to produce here. The problem wasn't dealing Eberle, the problem was the return.

Anyway, I think Puljujarvi (not Cagguila or Slepy) was supposed to replace Eberle's production and whatever Strome added offensively although he wasn't a direct Eberle replacement. Pulju not looking quite NHL ready in preseason threw a wrench into those plans.

Again though, you guys are focusing on very secondary things. The team isn't failing because Eberle isn't here anymore, the main reason is because the top players outside of McDavid haven't been as good as they were last season. Hell, even McDavid wasn't really himself until recently. The Oilers were getting minimal contributions from their secondary players most of last season too up until the last month or so.

Eberle would have put up ~25 goals here regardless, last season was an anomaly. I'm a huge Pulju fan and I think he's got the potential to be a 30-goal scorer but we should have had both of them in the lineup. Having Eberle to score goals would have helped a ton earlier in the season.

Lucic is killing it, Drai is doing fine, Nuge is playing way above expectations, and Maroon is on pace for 42 points just like last year. Their top 6 is producing as expected or even better in the case of Lucic and Nuge. The problem is the lack of talent up front because Chia downgraded the offense instead of improving it.

Especially with a bounce back with Nuge

I don't think anyone expected Nuge to play like he has this year but that definitely would have helped Eberle's totals.

 

[CupofOil]

Eberle would have put up ~25 goals here regardless, last season was an anomaly. I'm a huge Pulju fan and I think he's got the potential to be a 30-goal scorer but we should have had both of them in the lineup. Having Eberle to score goals would have helped a ton earlier in the season.

Lucic is killing it, Drai is doing fine, Nuge is playing way above expectations, and Maroon is on pace for 42 points just like last year. Their top 6 is producing as expected or even better in the case of Lucic and Nuge. The problem is the lack of talent up front because Chia downgraded the offense instead of improving it.

I don't think anyone expected Nuge to play like he has this year but that definitely would have helped Eberle's totals.

Again though, Eberle wasn't happy here so he was likely gone regardless. Not to excuse the trade but it's kind of pointless to play "what if" since Eberle was probably gone anyway.

Drai is fine but he was better than fine last season especially on the PP. Klefbom is a whole lot worse this season, Larsson not quite as good, Talbot worse up until this recent stretch, McDavid was battling a flu for a long while, Sekera injury with no viable replacement. Those are the major reasons for team regression this season, not the secondary scoring. The team was carried by its best players most of last season before the secondary players finally woke up late in the season. The best players haven't been as good this season, that's the major difference.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

BBO, thanks for the reply. The format is too messy to respond so I will try to get back to your responses.
Benning, fine, I could be too hard on him. I'm spotting a lot of the mistakes without maybe acknowledging the contributions. That said he's been positionally an adventure this season but probably a lot of that being due to Sekera and Larsson missing and everybody having to punch above weight. I still like Davidson more.

Khaira as a Maroon replacement? I dunno. The problem with that statement is that you are projecting Khaira COULD be a future Maroon, not that he is one. The present Maroon has 50 goals here in the same time Khaira has been around. Sure Maroon is older but he has infinitely better hands and see's ice consistently better. Theres a lot of Maroon feeds presently not working because he needs guys that will go to money areas to be successful. Maroon spends all day in the paint, around the net and will live there and all he requires is the support of other players that will be so inclined, Like Draisatl , like Lucic, like Kassian. Maroon is a down low player and he's not currently on a down low line.

But this is the whole problem with Chia assessment that you are repeating. That Chia just figures that Y player is replacing X player. Generally that has worked out poorly. You should rethink the Khaira/Maroon thing. Watch Maroon closely. The guy makes a lot of plays. Every game he's sending passes into the slot, crease, and sometimes they just don't connect but he's beating guys in battles and making the plays.

Walker isn't much. He made 3 bad reads in his first game with a new club, and as a vet things you just can't do. He came to the bench after one shift like he knew his NHL career was done. You can't come to a new club and lose your head out there in your first game. He played like a rank amateur.

Slepy I wouldn't conclude on. I need to see more of him. I like the player, I like the potential. I see him being better than Khaira.

Davidson brings a more steady game while Benning is kind of all over the place with flashes of brilliance and flashes of less than stellar plays.

I think that Khaira brings some of the same elements, not as good of a fighter or as good of hands but he's faster, younger and has room to grow as a player whereas Maroon is likely the best that he'll ever be in the last 2 seasons.

He might be complete crap but I'll reserve judgement for now.

I like much of what he brings but consistency is not part of that package.

I guess I should post about this one too. I never made any posts about Khaira because I was highly skeptical that the Oilers would actually be able to develop a player drafted outside the top couple rounds.
However in his first 20 games this year I think he has shown enough that this could be considered a qualified win for Chiarelli.
He still has games where he looks rough, but he has had a handful of games where he has looked like a player with a good NHL future. And that's what one would expect from a player in his first NHL season.
The thing about Khaira is that you sense he really wants it. I get the feeling this is a guy who isn't slacking off in his weight training and his practice regimen. In fact I would be surprised if he wasn't among the hardest workers on the team.
Plus he steps up for team mates. I expect Khaira to only improve as the season goes along. He doesn't yet have the scoring talent to contribute in a big way, but I'll mark this down as a small win for Peter.

IIRC his father is a hard working guy and Jujhar definitely takes after his dad in that regard. His skating compared to what it was when he was drafted is night and day. I see a top 9 future for him on this club.

So you now vegas had taken Davidsson instead of Reinhart, who they took, thats a way to excuse Chia! Any link to Chia saying he was forced to trade Davidsson?

As i saw how vegas took in expansion draft, im pretty sure Reinhart where there main target all the time because of his high draft. Trying out prospects and see if they could find a hidden gem. Dont think they looked for a 6-7- D , that they could had anywhere.

Perhaps but there was no guarantee either way. As I and many others saw it, Davidson was the most likely to be plucked from us.

Its the Chiarelli bets thread, not the Chiarelli draft thread.
I think posters are saying that Chiarelli was betting that Khaira was ready to step into a full time NHL job and contribute therefore he didn't purse any other outside options on the wings in off season. At least that's my take on the op and why I responded as I did.

Bingo. It's players that he hedged on and whether they covered the bet or failed to do so after 33 games this season.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I appreciate this topic however I feel like it doesn't cover the other side of the coin. The bets weren't just on players acquired/retained but also the ones let go. Hendricks, Pouliot and a few others were let go and either inadequately replaced or not replaced at all. While aside from Eberle none are huge losses I feel like the PK is really suffering due to the absence of some of these players. Hendricks in particular I feel is largely missed not only due to his hard work but his leadership skills, which the Jets are getting to see firsthand.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I appreciate this topic however I feel like it doesn't cover the other side of the coin. The bets weren't just on players acquired/retained but also the ones let go. Hendricks, Pouliot and a few others were let go and either inadequately replaced or not replaced at all. While aside from Eberle none are huge losses I feel like the PK is really suffering due to the absence of some of these players. Hendricks in particular I feel is largely missed not only due to his hard work but his leadership skills, which the Jets are getting to see firsthand.

Pouliot and Hendricks were let go because he bet on the likes of Jokinen, Khaira, Caggiula and Slepyshev.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Pouliot and Hendricks were let go because he bet on the likes of Jokinen, Khaira, Caggiula and Slepyshev.

An astute point, though I wonder how much of that is really true given that none of those guys PK as much as Pouliot and Hendricks did. Khaira might be the closest thing. I'd say they're closer to DD replacements but it's hard to ignore the numbers put up by those departed three forwards.

You also neglected to mention the bet on KY. Which I would say was a failure but since they sent him back before his first year was up, it wasn't a massive one.

 

[Aerrol]

An astute point, though I wonder how much of that is really true given that none of those guys PK as much as Pouliot and Hendricks did. Khaira might be the closest thing. I'd say they're closer to DD replacements but it's hard to ignore the numbers put up by those departed three forwards.

You also neglected to mention the bet on KY. Which I would say was a failure but since they sent him back before his first year was up, it wasn't a massive one.

I don't think you can say he bet on KY. Both Chia and McLellan came out in preseason saying they were surprised he was doing so well. The bet was on Pulju, KY stole his spot.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I don't think you can say he bet on KY. Both Chia and McLellan came out in preseason saying they were surprised he was doing so well. The bet was on Pulju, KY stole his spot.

He certainly earned a spot but it was apparent fairly early that he just wasn't cut out for it. Thankfully Chia learned his lesson from JP the year before and sent him back before any real damage was done.

I think they bet that KY and/or JP would take Eberle's spot since the right side is very weak for the Oilers. It still is, but it looks a bit better nowadays.

 

[Aerrol]

He certainly earned a spot but it was apparent fairly early that he just wasn't cut out for it. Thankfully Chia learned his lesson from JP the year before and sent him back before any real damage was done.

I think they bet that KY and/or JP would take Eberle's spot since the right side is very weak for the Oilers. It still is, but it looks a bit better nowadays.

I don't disagree with this. In any case, it's looking like the ky/jp bet wasn't a bad one. The bets on the rest of RW - Jokinen, Slep, Caggiula, Kassian were the problem. You could have bet on jp/Ky without removing Ebs and our RW would be average, not strong. Now it's weak instead.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I don't disagree with this. In any case, it's looking like the ky/jp bet wasn't a bad one. The bets on the rest of RW - Jokinen, Slep, Caggiula, Kassian were the problem. You could have bet on jp/Ky without removing Ebs and our RW would be average, not strong. Now it's weak instead.

Right. As good as KY was in the preseason, I feel like putting him on the top line from the get-go was a mistake. Not an overly costly one but still. And to be fair to the coach there wasn't a better option.

And everyone knows how I feel about the Eberle trade, I won't shit up this thread with that talk.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

An astute point, though I wonder how much of that is really true given that none of those guys PK as much as Pouliot and Hendricks did. Khaira might be the closest thing. I'd say they're closer to DD replacements but it's hard to ignore the numbers put up by those departed three forwards.

You also neglected to mention the bet on KY. Which I would say was a failure but since they sent him back before his first year was up, it wasn't a massive one.

IIRC Caggiula did some PKing in his rookie season. I think that the thought was that Jokinen would be the Pouliot replacement and we know how that ended up.

IMO Kailer came out of nowhere so he was never really bet on but needed to be dealt with nonetheless.

Right. As good as KY was in the preseason, I feel like putting him on the top line from the get-go was a mistake. Not an overly costly one but still. And to be fair to the coach there wasn't a better option.

And everyone knows how I feel about the Eberle trade, I won't **** up this thread with that talk.

That's fair, I think that the RW looked pretty barren with Jesse not playing as well as they had hoped and TBH if Kailer was to stay up it needed to be in a top 6 role. Burning a year off his ELC to play him in the bottom 6 would've been a bad idea.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

IIRC Caggiula did some PKing in his rookie season. I think that the thought was that Jokinen would be the Pouliot replacement and we know how that ended up.

IMO Kailer came out of nowhere so he was never really bet on but needed to be dealt with nonetheless.



That's fair, I think that the RW looked pretty barren with Jesse not playing as well as they had hoped and TBH if Kailer was to stay up it needed to be in a top 6 role. Burning a year off his ELC to play him in the bottom 6 would've been a bad idea.

I agree 100% with this.

 

[Pressure]

Here we are with more than a 1/3 of the season done, let's look at the wagers that he made this offseason and into this season in terms of new additions and unproven returning players.

1) Ryan Strome 33gp. 4-9-13 +1 Loss
A big topic of discussion has been the Eberle for Ryan Strome trade. Eberle has had a solid bounce back season with 13-10-23 in 33gp. A big part of the trade was clearing cap space moving forward, Eberle is paid $3.5 million more than Strome and has outscored him by 9-1-10 in the same 33 game sample size. I am unsure if Strome will be here beyond this season so it is hard to say that we won this trade at this point since we haven't used the cap space towards any new player additions and Strome clearly isn't replacing Eberle's production this season but how does he stack up to Eberle's last 33 regular season games for the Oilers? Eberle's stat line in his last 33 regular season games as an Oiler: 9-10-19 +4

2) Jesse Puljujarvi 16gp. 6-2-8 +7 Win
Going back to the Eberle trade, you would have to think that one of the reasons that Chiarelli decided to move out Eberle was because he had a 19 year old top 5 pick fro the previous year waiting in the wings. You can talk about how underwhelming Strome has been but Puljujarvi looks like a player that will be able to play when it matters most due to his combination of size, speed and skill. This is the RW of the now and the future, he started in the AHL which may have been a surprise to the GM in the sense that he expected more in camp, but there is no arguing now that he is looking like the player that had our GM grinning ear to ear when he was available with the 4th overall pick.

3) Darnell Nurse 33gp. 2-10-12 +7 Win
With Andrei Sekera out (yet to return although he's almost there), Chia anticipated that he would see enough internal growth from some of his young defensemen that they could ride out the storm until Reggie returned. Nurse's progression this season has been significant. His responsibilities have gone up considerably and likely wouldn't have happened without the opportunity from the Sekera and Larsson injuries.

4) Matt Benning 30gp. 4-4-8 +2 Win
Like Nurse, Benning has been counted on to take up some of the slack from the Sekera injury. Unlike Nurse he has had more ups and downs this season. That said he has still been adequate as a 3rd pairing defenseman and IMO has more to give in time.

5) Drake Caggiula 22gp. 4-3-7 -9 Loss
After a decent playoffs I think that it was somewhat reasonable to expect a better showing out of the Drake this season but he just flat out hasn't risen to the occasion. I for one question his future with the team.

6) Anton Slepyshev 15gp. 1-2-3 -1 Loss
Like Caggiula, Slepyshev showed well in the post season but just has not gained traction this season. If I had to pick between Drake and Anton, I would keep Anton. That said I wonder if he too has a future here beyond this season.

7) Jujhar Khaira 20gp. 5-4-9 +2 Win
Khaira started slowly after a solid preseason but has since come out and done very well for us. His combination of size, speed, skill and grit could well make Maroon expendable. Unlike Caggiula and Slepyshev, Khaira has arrived this season.

8) Yohann Auvitu 19gp. 2-3-5 +7 Win
Added as a depth defenseman, Auvitu has shown recently that he can play at the NHL level and provide some offensive pop from the blueline. Depth on defense is never a bad thing.

9) Jussi Jokinen 14gp. 0-1-1 -3 Loss
What may have been the most lauded signing of the offseason turned out to be a massive bust for the Oilers.

10) Michael Cammalleri 14gp. 1-5-6 -5 Win
Considering we got him for the invisible man Jokinen, I'll consider his offensive production as a positive.

11) Nathan Walker 1gp. 0-0-0 -1 INC
A single game played gives too small of a window into whether he was a good waiver claim or not.

12) Brandon Davidson 5gp. 0-0-0 +2 Win
Small sample size, but Davie has been solid in his return and has helped us to play many of our best games as a team this season.

13) Laurent Brossoit 13gp. 3-7-0-1 0.886sv% 3.22GAA Loss
How much better would our playoff positioning be if we had a back-up that was only 1 or 2 games below 0.500? The answer is considerably.


As I see it, we have had a rough go because some of these players haven't stepped up to the plate (Strome, Caggiula, Slepyshev) and we have had sub par seasons from some of our key players ie. Klefbom and Talbot. Overall I have his record at 7-5-1 which isn't too bad. I think that this season has shown that Puljujarvi and Khaira should be mainstays here up front while some of the other guys may need a new start elsewhere.

Agreed on all points!!

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It sure was nice to see Strome with a big game last night, here's to hoping that he can find some consistency at that level for the rest of the season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

IIRC Caggiula did some PKing in his rookie season. I think that the thought was that Jokinen would be the Pouliot replacement and we know how that ended up.

IMO Kailer came out of nowhere so he was never really bet on but needed to be dealt with nonetheless.



That's fair, I think that the RW looked pretty barren with Jesse not playing as well as they had hoped and TBH if Kailer was to stay up it needed to be in a top 6 role. Burning a year off his ELC to play him in the bottom 6 would've been a bad idea.

Not the best of news, I know, but Jokinen has kind of looked in LA more like he was supposed to look in Edm. He has looked more like a savvy vet down there and has played sensible hockey and made some plays. Strange that he didn't bring it here, and he really didn't.

Could be the way the team was playing got him off to a bad start as well. He seems to need a team playing well now to do his thing. I still think Camm isn't going to be much of a piece here. Too much past it. 5 years ago, yeah. Camm has reached that point where he knows the right play to make, but 2 secs have passed.. Still works on slow developing plays or when Nuge is wide open. he did make that one good pass to Nuge after looking off the goalie.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I guess Strome and Caggiula didn't like their grades. Since the OP:

Strome 3gp. 3-0-3 +1
Caggiula 3gp. 1-1-2 +2

 

[shoop]

Kris Russell contract - Huge loss
Gryba 2 year deal - loss
Clearing a bunch of cap space and doing nothing with it - huge loss

Russell contract. Has been good this year and worth the money. Three years down the line who knows, but now it's good.

Gryba deal ... agreed brutal.

Clearing cap space? If Chia doesn't do anything with the cap space by the TDL ... agreed. For now? Let's wait and see. 62 days on that one.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Russell contract. Has been good this year and worth the money. Three years down the line who knows, but now it's good.

Gryba deal ... agreed brutal.

Clearing cap space? If Chia doesn't do anything with the cap space by the TDL ... agreed. For now? Let's wait and see. 62 days on that one.

Imagine our team without Russell, Sekera and with a banged up Klefbom. Gryba is ok as a #7/8 IMO.

With our team turning the corner and all of that cap space we could make some key adds at the deadline, had we not been turning the corner it would've been meaningless. Naturally none of us expected the season to start as poorly as it did.

 

[shoop]

Imagine our team without Russell, Sekera and with a banged up Klefbom. Gryba is ok as a #7/8 IMO.

With our team turning the corner and all of that cap space we could make some key adds at the deadline, had we not been turning the corner it would've been meaningless. Naturally none of us expected the season to start as poorly as it did.

No Russell, Sekera or Kelfbom and the Oilers are bottom five in the league.

Gryba maybe ok as an 8/9 D, but the second year is the questionable part of the deal.

I think it's rapidly becoming apparent how valuable Sekera is to this team.

 

[Wewillrise]

If the Oil make the playoffs I’m going to come back and read all these threads.