NHL Entry Draft The 2023-24 Tank Command Thread

[Micklebot]

If you look at draft histories, theres usually a dropoff for player success around the end of the 1st round for guys and then a little uptick in the start of the 2nd.

That is probably easy to explain by the fact that the bad/rebuilding teams start drafting again in round 2. Easier to crack those rosters sooner. The guys at the end of round 1 are better than they look and those at the start of round 2 are worse than their stats show.

I hadn't thought of it like that before, but it's a good point, there's a lot more opportunity available for an early second round pick than for a late 1st. That said, a lot of those top teams are trading their late firsts, so Perreault at 27 goes to Anaheim instead of Bos, Greig at 28 goes to Ottawa instead of NYI, Wieselblatt at 31 goes to SJ instead of Tbay.

Regardless, after you're outside the top 25 players or so in round 1 you're unlikely to find studs. maybe 50% at the end of the first round for a good player, 20% in the 2nd and about 7-10% shot in rounds 3-7 with not much difference in those rounds. Even if the average 3rd liner is better than the average 6th rounder, that doesn't matter if neither makes the NHL.

My strategy, if i was a GM would be to scoop out the middle and aim for "quality at the top of the draft and quantity at the bottom".

1) never trade picks in the top 20. Elite players are impossible to replace via trades and this is usually the only place to consistently land them. You need elite players to win cups.

2) consider trading picks in the top 20-40 range downward, looking to get more picks in the top 50 or so. Two picks in the 30-50 range will usually be worth more than one in the 20-30 range. Dorion had this backwards.

3) Consider trading 2nd rounders or very late 1sts for NHL roster support. (I think these picks are wildly overrated by teams). So I'd be listening on our 2nd and the Boston 1st.

4) After about pick 60 it's a complete gongshow. Just take a shotgun approach and try to draft as many players as possible. Trade downwards and move roster players for multiple picks where possible. E.g, maybe take a 4th+6th for kubalik rather than a 3rd if that kind of option is on the table.

I don't disagree with much of your strategy here, but I will say while picks in the 6-20 range have their star power, they also can bring in stars. I don't think you can ever say never trade a pick in x range, we got burned recently, so I do see why you might take that stance, but Van made out pretty well sending 17 for Hronek and 20 for JT Miller so far,