The 2019-20 Tank Command Thread - Part 3

[Daffy]

As of now (3 Jan 7:24 pm) here are the standings:
Pos. Team. G. W. L. T Points Lottery % for first pick
26 SJ. 42. 18. 21. 4. 38T. 7.5
27. LA. 42. 17. 21. 4. 38T. 8.7
28 OTT. 41. 16. 20. 5. 37T. 9.5
29 ANA. 41. 16. 20. 5. 37T. 11.5
30. NJ. 40. 15. 19. 6. 36. 13.5
31. DET. 41. 10. 28. 3. 23. 18.5

So, Ottawa with the SJ pick has at best a 20.2% chance (8.7 + 11.5) of winning the lottery for the first draft pick or an 79.8% chance of not getting the first pick.

17%. I think you added LA and Anaheim

 

[Cosmix]

17%. I think you added LA and Anaheim

Yes I did add LA and ANA.

Because SJ is Tied with LA, so “at best” is 8.7% plus 11.5% because Ott is tied with Ana. “at worse” would be 7.5% + 9.5% = 17%.

If the season ends with similar results, the Senators would get guaranteed the 6th or 7th pick plus the 8th or 9th pick. Hopefully the lottery results will be favourable for the Senators and provide at least one of the top 3 picks.

 

[Sweatred]

Yes I did add LA and ANA.

Because SJ is Tied with LA, so “at best” is 8.7% plus 11.5% because Ott is tied with Ana. “at worse” would be 7.5% + 9.5% = 17%.

If the season ends with similar results, the Senators would get guaranteed the 6th or 7th pick plus the 8th or 9th pick. Hopefully the lottery results will be favourable for the Senators and provide at least one of the top 3 picks.

Nicely done - is it possible to calculate the odds of Ottawa drafting in the top 3 picks with our current OTT/SJ slots. I don’t see much info on what the Sens chances of picking 2nd or 3rd are if they are sitting in the (example) 3rd slot.

 

[GCK]

Nicely done - is it possible to calculate the odds of Ottawa drafting in the top 3 picks with our current OTT/SJ slots. I don’t see much info on what the Sens chances of picking 2nd or 3rd are if they are sitting in the (example) 3rd slot.

Odds of top 3 are 28.8 with our pick and 23.3 with SJ pick.

 

[Sweatred]

Odds of top 3 are 28.8 with our pick and 23.3 with SJ pick.

Thanks !

 

[Cosmix]

Nicely done - is it possible to calculate the odds of Ottawa drafting in the top 3 picks with our current OTT/SJ slots. I don’t see much info on what the Sens chances of picking 2nd or 3rd are if they are sitting in the (example) 3rd slot.

although I have taken an intro Stats course, I do not have the knowledge to do that calculation, but a stats major could do it with little difficulty.

 

[Cosmix]

Odds of top 3 are 28.8 with our pick and 23.3 with SJ pick.

so 28.8 + 23.3 = 52.1%

I assume you summed the percentages for the top 3 lottery picks based on current position in the standings and using the Ott and SJ percentages. Right?

 

[GCK]

so 28.8 + 23.3 = 52.1%

I assume you summed the percentages for the top 3 lottery picks based on current position in the standings and using the Ott and SJ percentages. Right?

That is correct except the math was done by tanknation.com.

 

[OUTHOUSE]

Need Anaheim to really pick it up.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So someone should explain to Dorion the idea is to tank Ottawa not Belleville.

 

[tardigrade81]

So someone should explain to Dorion the idea is to tank Ottawa not Belleville.

I got your back. Make the phone call.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I got your back. Make the phone call.

#movethepets

 

[Sweatred]

so 28.8 + 23.3 = 52.1%

I assume you summed the percentages for the top 3 lottery picks based on current position in the standings and using the Ott and SJ percentages. Right?

Yes - lots of value of winning the first slot ... but drafting 2-3 will be very valuable vs say 8th. I was hoping we may end up with a 65% chance of a top 3-4 pick.

 

[aragorn]

So someone should explain to Dorion the idea is to tank Ottawa not Belleville.

PD gets confused because both teams are called the Senators.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

I will B my L if sens get lafreniere

 

[HSF]

Automatic loss today against Tampa

San Jose is winning rn against cbj

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

#movethepets

2020 Senators Team Song

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

2020 Senators Team Song

The Pets are Alright... I could see DJ insisting on that song as pregame dressing room music

 

[Pinto22]

Sharks win but still not impressed. These aren't good wins, watched both games. The Pittsburgh game they got dominated... A bad trip call in overtime won it for them.

They beat Columbus.

Still confident that Washington and st Louis beat the breaks off these pretenders. Regardless I'm thrilled that there pick has gone from a mid 20s first to a sure shot top 15

I read somewhere they need to win 29 games for the second part of the season.... To put that in to context the Capitals had won 29 games in the first half and were first in the NHL.

 

[TheDebater]

So someone should explain to Dorion the idea is to tank Ottawa not Belleville.

How will he hear you as he drowns in the tears of those who think we are destroying the confidence of the stars in Belleville by calling up Beaudin and Swarz instead of them?

 

[Maple Leaf Forever]

Automatic loss today against Tampa

San Jose is winning rn against cbj

Com on Sens win this one tonite ......do it for the Leafs and their fans...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Com on Sens win this one tonite ......do it for the Leafs and their fans...

Nah, we need losses more than anything right now.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Com on Sens win this one tonite ......do it for the Leafs and their fans...

I'm sure DJ, Brown, Ennis et al have the message

 

[HSF]

Com on Sens win this one tonite ......do it for the Leafs and their fans...

You have me sold

 

[Maple Leaf Forever]

Nah, we need losses more than anything right now.

Very True ......I think most in hockey would agree they are doing a lot better than predicted ....good work ethic , some good young talent ...I like DJ Smith think he’s doing a good job ....so beat TB.