Speculation: Tavares Tells Toronto, "I'm YOUR Huckleberry Now". Fans leaguewide mourn.

[DoubleK81]

Well, more likely he doesn't come back now. Note he's playing with Laine and Ehlers. That is like dream come true for Paul.

I would rather keep Stastny in then trade him away if our need really is 2c. Take the gamle if he doesn't resign in here.

But if case is Army thought its good get 1st round pick back this year draft and Stastny was the guy who would give us that knowing we're going to lose our own 1st round pick for Philly (Lehterä trade), then that is good move by Army. Draft is right way to build future.

There are 2 situations that lead to Armstrong trading Stastny.

1- Stastny expressed that he wasn't going to re-sign, so what's the point in keeping him when the return is as good as it was?

2- Stastny expressed that he does want to stay here for the future, and is willing to do the ol' Tkachuk deal to get some assets for the team.

I think #1 is far more likely.

 

[Brian39]

There are 2 situations that lead to Armstrong trading Stastny.

1- Stastny expressed that he wasn't going to re-sign, so what's the point in keeping him when the return is as good as it was?

2- Stastny expressed that he does want to stay here for the future, and is willing to do the ol' Tkachuk deal to get some assets for the team.

I think #1 is far more likely.

Just to add to this, I think it is exceedingly likely that no matter what, we weren't willing to sign him until Tavares signs somewhere. I also think that it's very likely that Stastny's agent advised him that he shouldn't sign a deal until after Tavares, because that will set the market and open up the number of teams interested.

 

[Robb_K]

Great post.

The plan you outlined is the smartest approach imo. Go hard after a center at the draft via trade to grab some headlines then make Tavares an offer. We can always move a center to wing and like you said we then wouldnt be scrambling if/when Tavares goes elsewhere. I hope this is exactly what Armstrong does because I don't think we have time to sit around waiting for something that may never materialize. Being proactive and going after what you want gets results while waiting could see you with nothing.

Especially when doing that ahead of time might work in favour of getting Tavares to sign with The Blues, when he might not otherwise have done!

 

[stl76]

There are 2 situations that lead to Armstrong trading Stastny.

1- Stastny expressed that he wasn't going to re-sign, so what's the point in keeping him when the return is as good as it was?

2- Stastny expressed that he does want to stay here for the future, and is willing to do the ol' Tkachuk deal to get some assets for the team.

I think #1 is far more likely.

What? There is exactly 1 situation that lead to Armstrong trading Stastny.

1 - the team played like absolute dog shit in the lead up to the TDL.

By all accounts, Armstrong was evaluating the team and, after the team kept losing and losing, eventually approached Paul about a potential trade. I don't see a reason to believe that either of the 2 "situations' you've listed here have any basis in reality, much less to believe that situation 1 is more likely. Why would Stastny straight up tell Armstrong that he wasn't going to re-sign? I just don't see where the incentive is from Paul's perspective. MAYBE there was a wink-and-nod talk about Paul wanting to stay and re-sign after the season, but that doesn't seem particularly likely IMO. Can't see Armstrong guaranteeing Stastny a roster spot not knowing what will happen with Tavares.

The most likely scenario is that Paul had/has not made any decision either way on whether he will re-sign in St. Louis or not. I think at this point he will probably test the market, and the Blues will have a chance to sign him. Maybe the Blues will have a better chance at signing him than other teams, maybe not. But I find the idea that Paul has already decided what his plan will be for the offseason (and the next several years of his life) to be highly unlikely.

 

[Ranksu]

If we miss Tavarase we might face another 'meh' season. Knowing 2019 and 2020 are pretty good drafts, I wouldn't mind to tank or trade more picks for next drafts.

 

[Dbrownss]

If we miss Tavarase we might face another 'meh' season. Knowing 2019 and 2020 are pretty good drafts, I wouldn't mind to tank or trade more picks for next drafts.

Given our roster, I think its borderline impossible to tank. It would require selling core players. No way Army goes this route.

I dont think he will panic if he misses out on Tavares and trade for a meh top 6 guy. Well probably see another "transition" year.

 

[67Blues]

Given our roster, I think its borderline impossible to tank. It would require selling core players. No way Army goes this route.

I dont think he will panic if he misses out on Tavares and trade for a meh top 6 guy. Well probably see another "transition" year.

Indeed. If we miss out on JT, I could see the Blues doing something short term with a veteran top 6 (please no Bozak). Next year will be the final transition year before the push as we'll know a bit more where the kids shake out, and we can trade some folks like JBo and Gunnar as rentals at the TDL for picks to keep stocking the farm. I predict that we'll be a top 10 draft team in a good draft next year. All the more reason to keep next years 1st unless there is some player that has impact and good term.

 

[Thallis]

Given our roster, I think its borderline impossible to tank. It would require selling core players. No way Army goes this route.

I dont think he will panic if he misses out on Tavares and trade for a meh top 6 guy. Well probably see another "transition" year.

Not really. If we didn't set the world on fire out of the gate, we'd be guaranteed our draft pick right now. "This team has too much talent to be in the basement" is the mantra of most dumpster fire teams before the season starts.

 

[Dbrownss]

Not really. If we didn't set the world on fire out of the gate, we'd be guaranteed our draft pick right now. "This team has too much talent to be in the basement" is the mantra of most dumpster fire teams before the season starts.

We'd also be in the playoffs if Schwartz didn't miss 2mo. You can't just x out 2 months of the season.

 

[Ranksu]

We'd also be in the playoffs if Schwartz didn't miss 2mo. You can't just x out 2 months of the season.

What about no Stastny? And this season we had him on to TDL.

 

[Thallis]

We'd also be in the playoffs if Schwartz didn't miss 2mo. You can't just x out 2 months of the season.

The point I was making is that we started the season at an unsustainable pace that kept us afloat through the rest of the year. We won't always have that luxury. Injuries will pretty much always happen, and even when Schwartz came back we continued to struggle. The median level of the team this year was a team that didn't belong in the playoffs. If there aren't substantial improvements to the top 6, the basement is more than possible.

 

[Dbrownss]

The point I was making is that we started the season at an unsustainable pace that kept us afloat through the rest of the year. We won't always have that luxury. Injuries will pretty much always happen, and even when Schwartz came back we continued to struggle. The median level of the team this year was a team that didn't belong in the playoffs. If there aren't substantial improvements to the top 6, the basement is more than possible.

I don't completely agree. It would depend on how the conference is, but I think this is a middling playoff team. Not close enough to the basement to tank without significant injuries

 

[Dbrownss]

What about no Stastny? And this season we had him on to TDL.

I think you can pencil in that extra point if they didnt trade stastny

 

[Shwabeal]

I think you can pencil in that extra point if they didnt trade stastny

It's kind of hard to say that. The team seemed to feed off of DA saying, we don't think you've been good enough with the trade of Stastny. I pretty much agree in that I think they would have made it if they didn't trade Stastny, but you can't discount what that slap in the face/wake up call/whatever you want to call it, did for the team.

 

[Shwabeal]

On a semi-related topic to the Tavares discussion, I'm starting to really hope he leaves the Islanders no matter what team he goes to simply because of the Islanders fans in that Anders Lee thread. I know 3 or 4 people don't encompass a whole fan base, but man have those handful of posters made me wish ill will on that organization. The amount of shit getting slung around over there is unbearable yet, I find myself going back just to see how ridiculous that thread is getting.

 

[Dbrownss]

It's kind of hard to say that. The team seemed to feed off of DA saying, we don't think you've been good enough with the trade of Stastny. I pretty much agree in that I think they would have made it if they didn't trade Stastny, but you can't discount what that slap in the face/wake up call/whatever you want to call it, did for the team.

Eh...idk, that clown pounding from Minny said they didnt get the message. Your right though, its possible they may have still missed. I didnt think they played all that well post TDL, Allen saved their bacon alot

 

[Brian39]

I don't think we're a bottom 10 team next year without Tavares unless we trade one of Petro or Tarasenko (which isn't happening). We could very well miss the playoffs again, but we were 14 points up on the Isles who currently hold the #10. Fabbri might not be a top 6 player upon his return, but I would be shocked if he isn't a better 3rd line option than the rotating door of Thompson, Blais, Barby, and Jaskin this past year. Even if he has lost a significant step, he should still be a small upgrade to the secondary scoring. Even if we miss Tavares, Army is going to bring in some for the top 6. It may not be a massive upgrade, but it will help greatly offset the loss of Stastny. I don't expect the backup to win us as many games as Hutton did this past year, but I also expect that Allen will cost us a couple fewer games as well.

I just don't see this team being 15+ points worse than they were this year. We dropped 5 points in the standings between 16/17 and this year. We dropped 13 points in the standings from the 15/16 season to this season. I think it is very unlikely that we see a drop off that is larger than the drop off from 15/16 to where we are currently at. Without a good summer, this team could very well miss the playoffs and by a much larger margin than 1 point. But I think we'd be like Calgary, where the season was essentially over a couple weeks before playoffs but we're still not in the basement.

 

[Brian39]

The point I was making is that we started the season at an unsustainable pace that kept us afloat through the rest of the year. We won't always have that luxury. Injuries will pretty much always happen, and even when Schwartz came back we continued to struggle. The median level of the team this year was a team that didn't belong in the playoffs. If there aren't substantial improvements to the top 6, the basement is more than possible.

Even excluding the unsustainable start, we still didn't play poorly enough to get a top 10 pick. We were the 13th worst team in the league from December 1, 2017 to the end of the year. That put us on pace to finish almost 6 points ahead of the 10th worst team. So even if you completely erase the best 2 months of hockey the team played, we're still talking about needing to play noticeably worse than we did this year to get into the top 10 draft spots (ignoring the lottery).

The median level of this team was a non-playoff team, but still pretty far outside the basement. Fabbri should conservatively be a minor upgrade to the worst player on the 3rd line, Army is going to bring in some type of offensive help even if we miss on Tavares and barring major upgrades from outside the organization we should see a rookie or two who is more ready than Thompson was this year (or Thompson takes a step forward to hold off other prospects). We may not take a giant leap forward, but I also don't expect a giant leap backwards.

 

[Blueston]

I don't think we're a bottom 10 team next year without Tavares unless we trade one of Petro or Tarasenko (which isn't happening). We could very well miss the playoffs again, but we were 14 points up on the Isles who currently hold the #10. Fabbri might not be a top 6 player upon his return, but I would be shocked if he isn't a better 3rd line option than the rotating door of Thompson, Blais, Barby, and Jaskin this past year. Even if he has lost a significant step, he should still be a small upgrade to the secondary scoring. Even if we miss Tavares, Army is going to bring in some for the top 6. It may not be a massive upgrade, but it will help greatly offset the loss of Stastny. I don't expect the backup to win us as many games as Hutton did this past year, but I also expect that Allen will cost us a couple fewer games as well.

I just don't see this team being 15+ points worse than they were this year. We dropped 5 points in the standings between 16/17 and this year. We dropped 13 points in the standings from the 15/16 season to this season. I think it is very unlikely that we see a drop off that is larger than the drop off from 15/16 to where we are currently at. Without a good summer, this team could very well miss the playoffs and by a much larger margin than 1 point. But I think we'd be like Calgary, where the season was essentially over a couple weeks before playoffs but we're still not in the basement.

Would take catastrophic run of injuries to finish that much worse

 

[Ranksu]

I think you can pencil in that extra point if they didnt trade stastny

How many games Stastny did play with us before he get traded? What if we don't have Stastny in next season? Aren't our top6 even weaker compare to this season. That was my point.

 

[Brian39]

How many games Stastny did play with us before he get traded? What if we don't have Stastny in next season? Aren't our top6 even weaker compare to this season. That was my point.

If the season started tomorrow, sure the forward group is weaker than it was when we had Stastny. But it is painfully obvious that Army is going to bring in some type of forward help no matter what. There is almost no realistic chance that we miss on Tavares, throw our hands up and do nothing. Between that guy, Fabbri and progression of our young players, it is highly unlikely that they don't roughly replace the production of Stastny and Sobotka (if he is traded).

Barring a stunning lack of any roster movement in the summer, I just don't see the offense or PP getting drastically worse than it was last year. Again, there is no guarantee that we get better or don't regress a bit more. It's just almost certainly not going to be 15 points worse than we were this season.

 

[Stealth JD]

Blues could absolutely be 15-points worse next year. Easily. Let’s not anybody kid ourselves here.

What if Schenn and/or Pietrangelo don’t have career-years again? What if Arizona/Buffalo/Carolina all go Winnipeg/Colorado on the league next year and the youth starts paying off? It’s very possible Jaden plays even less than his usual 60 games/year. Steen could take another step back. The 2C could be less effective than Stastny was. Thompson/Blais/Barbashev/Jaskin could all fail to take that next step. Jake Allen has a coin-flip chance of getting run out of town. The special teams could get worse (well...at least the PK).

Let’s not pretend this team is so deep and so talented that it would take a colossal collapse for this team to become markedly worse than they are today. This difference between winning and losing in this league is razor thin...every game is seemingly tied or a one-goal game in the 3rd. There’s more parity than ever before. Worst to first isn’t a ridiculous notion. You’re either getting one year better or one year older...and the Blues are firmly on the outside looking in heading into next season after dumping Stastny.

 

[The Note]

Blues could absolutely be 15-points worse next year. Easily. Let’s not anybody kid ourselves here.

What if Schenn and/or Pietrangelo don’t have career-years again? What if Arizona/Buffalo/Carolina all go Winnipeg/Colorado on the league next year and the youth starts paying off? It’s very possible Jaden plays even less than his usual 60 games/year. Steen could take another step back. The 2C could be less effective than Stastny was. Thompson/Blais/Barbashev/Jaskin could all fail to take that next step. Jake Allen has a coin-flip chance of getting run out of town. The special teams could get worse (well...at least the PK).

Let’s not pretend this team is so deep and so talented that it would take a colossal collapse for this team to become markedly worse than they are today. This difference between winning and losing in this league is razor thin...every game is seemingly tied or a one-goal game in the 3rd. There’s more parity than ever before. Worst to first isn’t a ridiculous notion. You’re either getting one year better or one year older...and the Blues are firmly on the outside looking in heading into next season after dumping Stastny.

I understand what you’re saying but the “what if” game goes both ways. What if the PP isn’t bottom 2 in the league? What if Fabbri comes back healthy? What if Allen isn’t replacement-level for 2 months next year? What if Thomas comes in and puts up 40 points? Pretty much any one of those things is the difference between the playoffs and not. I don’t think anyone thinks this team is beyond reproach. But this roster won’t be what we see in October; at least I surely hope it isn’t.

 

[Celtic Note]

So basically we could be better or worse depending on a myriad of situations.

 

[MissouriMook]

So basically we could be better or worse depending on a myriad of situations.

My gut tells me...maybe.