Speculation: Tavares Tells Toronto, "I'm YOUR Huckleberry Now". Fans leaguewide mourn.

[EastonBlues22]

Come on man.....you know what I mean by that. He's just that big of an impact player. In the 15-16 playoffs, he willed that team to victory, Now granted, I don't remember the series exactly. That was the general take away

I didn't say that you meant it that way. I mean, I specifically pointed that out that I thought you were probably using it for dramatic emphasis.

I simply took the opportunity to address the statement at face value because there are a good number of people out there that do legitimately believe that one outstanding player can have that sort of dramatic impact on a team's fortune. It's socialized into us in all sorts of ways, from ancient tales of mythological heroes through contemporary pop culture (think The Natural, or even The Waterboy).

It never hurts to be reminded that one individual, regardless of how talented, simply doesn't affect an NHL game as much as some people think. We could land Tavares tomorrow, and I'd wager it's still more likely the Blues don't make the 3rd round than it is that they win the Cup from a pure probability standpoint. Winning the Cup is hard. It's not handed to the most talented team on paper. It takes a lot going right, and that includes some good luck as well.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

Come on man.....you know what I mean by that. He's just that big of an impact player. In the 15-16 playoffs, he willed that team to victory. Now granted, I don't remember the series exactly. That was the general take away

I watched a large part of that series, and yes, John Tavares took that team on his shoulders and carried them to victory.

 

[Dbrownss]

I didn't say that you meant it that way. I mean, I specifically pointed that out that I thought you were probably using it for dramatic emphasis.

I simply took the opportunity to address the statement at face value because there are a good number of people out there that do legitimately believe that one outstanding player can have that sort of dramatic impact on a team's fortune. It's socialized into us in all sorts of ways, from ancient tales of mythological heroes through contemporary pop culture (think The Natural, or even The Waterboy).

It never hurts to be reminded that one individual, regardless of how talented, simply doesn't affect an NHL game as much as some people think. We could land Tavares tomorrow, and I'd wager it's still more likely the Blues don't make the 3rd round than it is that they win the Cup from a pure probability standpoint. Winning the Cup is hard. It's not handed to the most talented team on paper. It takes a lot going right, and that includes some good luck as well.

Ah...just a friendly reminder that people are stupid.


As for a Blues team Tavares team...I'd strongly say that team does a shit ton of damage, baring horrific injuries. The Blues can just throw too much at teams at that point.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Ah...just a friendly reminder that people are stupid.


As for a Blues team Tavares team...I'd strongly say that team does a **** ton of damage, baring horrific injuries. The Blues can just throw too much at teams at that point.

3 Scoring solid solid scoring lines would be very hard to matchup with for any team. To go along with that both PP's should be functional at that point as well.

Either that or you can Stack two lines and have a defensive matchup line. I say if JT is available DA should be draped all over GMGS asking what would work.

Think of running this:
Who cares - Tavares - Tarasenko
Schwartz - Schenn - Who really cares/Berglund eventually
Sobotka - Stastny - Steen

Regardless this is still dreaming and I wont be a millionaire tomorrow but hopefully one will happen soon.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Ah...just a friendly reminder that people are stupid.


As for a Blues team Tavares team...I'd strongly say that team does a **** ton of damage, baring horrific injuries. The Blues can just throw too much at teams at that point.

I hope I didn't imply that I think people who believe that are stupid. I just think we are conditioned to believe that an individual can achieve more on their own than they actually can. Put another way, I think we tend to view many achievements in terms of individual accomplishments, with the most "visible" of those individual accomplishments getting the lion's share of the credit for the achievement. After all, what's a championship team without an MVP?

Having Tom Brady matters, but so does having a line that can keep him on his feet, receivers who can get open and catch the ball, game plans that keep the opponents off balance, a defense who can get the ball back in Brady's hand, etc. Would Brady be the "winner" he currently is if he played for Jacksonville the last 15 years?

I seriously doubt it, and yet you are significantly more likely to hear that New England's success was largely due to Brady than you are to hear that Brady's success was largely due to New England.

<shrug> It's more of a social observation tied to a sport context than anything. I just think it's a bit fascinating, and worth picking apart every now and then.

 

[Bye Felicia]

It's an apt point for St. Louis sports right now. The narrative across much of the Cardinals fanbase and media is that the team needs to acquire a "big bat." Yet the team is really quite good offensively (4th in the NL in wRC+ last year), and there are a multitude of areas where upgrades could provide value similar to the 2 or so WAR improvement that a big bat would bring right now. Still, the general perception is that the biggest need and missing piece is that MVP-caliber slugger such as Giancarlo Stanton.

Although I suppose I am still more okay with that type of thinking than the even more frustrating perception that the intangible-laden captain/leader of men wills his team to a championship.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

Who needs Tavares when we have Schenn am I right?

 

[Evocable Manager]

Who needs Tavares when we have Schenn am I right?

No your not.

Imagine having more than 1 line that scores every night.

That's what JT would bring. Schenn wouldn't produce as much as he is away from #91 and #17. JT doesn't need elite wingers to score at a P/GP clip.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

No your not.

Imagine having more than 1 line that scores every night.

That's what JT would bring. Schenn wouldn't produce as much as he is away from #91 and #17. JT doesn't need elite wingers to score at a P/GP clip.

It was a joke I hope you know, but I'll take the 12-3-1 record for now and maintain my valid opinion that JT isn't coming here.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

No your not.

Imagine having more than 1 line that scores every night.

That's what JT would bring. Schenn wouldn't produce as much as he is away from #91 and #17. JT doesn't need elite wingers to score at a P/GP clip.

Steen-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Stastny-Schenn

That being our top 6 would be so sick.

Then next year I’d roll

Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Kostin/Tage
Steen-Thomas-Sobotka
Blais-Sanford-Tage/Kostin
Sundqvist, Jaskin

I’m assuming the JT trade would be something like Barbashev+Kyrou+Walman+2019 1st+2018 3rd

We could also deal Berglund for a 1st at the draft.

 

[Klank Loves You]

He looks good with that logo.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I’m assuming the JT trade would be something like Barbashev+Kyrou+Walman+2019 1st+2018 3rd

I agree with those that believe getting Tavares is a pipe dream, but if on the 1% chance the Blues land him its gonna cost 2 of Thompson, Thomas, Kostin. Specifically because we dont have a 2018 1st. Rental or not, without including 2 of those 3 another team will easily outbid us.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

I agree with those that believe getting Tavares is a pipe dream, but if on the 1% chance the Blues land him its gonna cost 2 of Thompson, Thomas, Kostin. Specifically because we dont have a 2018 1st. Rental or not, without including 2 of those 3 another team will easily outbid us.

Losing two of three of those and not locking up Tavares long-term would SUCK.

 

[Dbrownss]

I agree with those that believe getting Tavares is a pipe dream, but if on the 1% chance the Blues land him its gonna cost 2 of Thompson, Thomas, Kostin. Specifically because we dont have a 2018 1st. Rental or not, without including 2 of those 3 another team will easily outbid us.

Depends on his no trade list honestly.

 

[Mike Liut]

Steen-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Stastny-Schenn

That being our top 6 would be so sick.

Then next year I’d roll

Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Kostin/Tage
Steen-Thomas-Sobotka
Blais-Sanford-Tage/Kostin
Sundqvist, Jaskin

I’m assuming the JT trade would be something like Barbashev+Kyrou+Walman+2019 1st+2018 3rd

We could also deal Berglund for a 1st at the draft.

I guess im in the minority here, but theres no way im trading those guys for an unsigned JT

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I guess im in the minority here, but theres no way im trading those guys for an unsigned JT

I’d give up that much ONLY if he immediately signs like Turris. That’s what the assumption was under for that deal.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

I'm sure it's just a slump but Tavares has looked pretty bad the last few games, is his skating an issue? He looks behind a few steps.

 

[Dbrownss]

I'm sure it's just a slump but Tavares has looked pretty bad the last few games, is his skating an issue? He looks behind a few steps.

No, unless he's hurt.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

It's an apt point for St. Louis sports right now. The narrative across much of the Cardinals fanbase and media is that the team needs to acquire a "big bat." Yet the team is really quite good offensively (4th in the NL in wRC+ last year), and there are a multitude of areas where upgrades could provide value similar to the 2 or so WAR improvement that a big bat would bring right now. Still, the general perception is that the biggest need and missing piece is that MVP-caliber slugger such as Giancarlo Stanton.

Piscotty and Grichuk combined for about 1.5-1.7 WAR in 2017. That includes all their ABs at any position.

Giancarlo Stanton was worth 7-7.5 WAR

It's more than just a 2 WAR improvement over what our right fielders gave us in 2017.

Sorry to go off topic.

 

[Brian39]

Depends on his no trade list honestly.

Amazingly, Tavares only has an 8 team no trade list. I realize that cap realities and standings position in February would eliminate more than 8 teams from contention, but there will still be 7-10 teams bidding on him if he is available. If the Isles retain salary (why wouldn't they to get max value for him if it actually comes down to trading a franchise player), the receiving team will only need to have $2.75 mil in deadline space. For a guy like Tavares, basically every team in the league can find a way to make that happen (especially since the Isles would still be able to take on a bit of salary in the move). For example, we are right up against the cap since we aren't utilizing LTIR. We could obtain Tavares without going into LTIR by moving Gunnar and having the Isles retain half his salary. That's just a no brainer and most teams have a guy that could be moved in a similar manner if it means you can get Tavares.

Tavares' NTC will allow him to eliminate some places he doesn't want to go to, but there would be a robust bidding war for him no matter which teams he puts on that list.

 

[Alklha]

The chances of Tavares getting traded at the deadline as a rental look very slim at this point. This isn't a Shattenkirk situation; the Islanders want to keep him and they need him for this years playoff run. It makes no sense for them to move him as a rental unless they completely collapse or he makes it clear he isn't staying.

If he makes it clear he isn't staying, then he'll likely be getting traded to a team he sign an extension with immediately. At that point his NTC is meaningless, the Islanders will need to get the best deal from the team he wants. It shouldn't be difficult to get a significantly better return than if he was a rental, we seen that with the Shattenkirk rumours.

 

[BangarangxRufio]

Dunn+Kostin+Berglund/Sobotka+Schmaltz+My free car detailing ($150 value) I got when i bought my car+the $8 or so in quarters in my change bucket+ the Free large Popcorn/FreeMovie Ticket/$5 off a large Combo on my WEHRENBERG MVP card(it will transfer to the new Marcus MVP card)+ 1 bottle of KC J. Rieger Whiskey ($35value).

 

[MissouriMook]

Dunn+Kostin+Berglund/Sobotka+Schmaltz+My free car detailing ($150 value) I got when i bought my car+the $8 or so in quarters in my change bucket+ the Free large Popcorn/FreeMovie Ticket/$5 off a large Combo on my WEHRENBERG MVP card(it will transfer to the new Marcus MVP card)+ 1 bottle of KC J. Rieger Whiskey ($35value).

Throw in the cookies, Doug, and you've got a deal.

 

[Dbrownss]

Amazingly, Tavares only has an 8 team no trade list. I realize that cap realities and standings position in February would eliminate more than 8 teams from contention, but there will still be 7-10 teams bidding on him if he is available. If the Isles retain salary (why wouldn't they to get max value for him if it actually comes down to trading a franchise player), the receiving team will only need to have $2.75 mil in deadline space. For a guy like Tavares, basically every team in the league can find a way to make that happen (especially since the Isles would still be able to take on a bit of salary in the move). For example, we are right up against the cap since we aren't utilizing LTIR. We could obtain Tavares without going into LTIR by moving Gunnar and having the Isles retain half his salary. That's just a no brainer and most teams have a guy that could be moved in a similar manner if it means you can get Tavares.

Tavares' NTC will allow him to eliminate some places he doesn't want to go to, but there would be a robust bidding war for him no matter which teams he puts on that list.

Teams wont pay more then rental price. Given who Tavares is, that's a 1st+a good prospect. No ones gutting their pool for a guy thats going to walk. Now if there are multiple teams he's willing to sign with....well then things will get ugly

 

[Bye Felicia]

Piscotty and Grichuk combined for about 1.5-1.7 WAR in 2017. That includes all their ABs at any position.

Giancarlo Stanton was worth 7-7.5 WAR

It's more than just a 2 WAR improvement over what our right fielders gave us in 2017.

Sorry to go off topic.

The point isn't that you shouldn't upgrade. It's that there are more paths forward then pursuing a superstar at one position. Instead of acquiring Stanton, the Cards could go after a lesser upgrade in RF, pick up a guy like Santana at 1B and move Carpenter to a super-utility everyday role, shore up the bullpen and the back of the rotation, and ultimately end up improving the team just as much. Instead of acquiring Tavares, the Blues could go for a lesser upgrade and then also look to fill other holes in the lineup.

At some point you can end up with a team that is above average across the board and still isn't good enough to seriously contend, so you do need elite players. But that doesn't have to be at a particular position. Pittsburgh showed this last year by winning without an elite defenseman--I don't see why you have to have an elite center, either, provided that you are at least above average and have talent at other positions.